EFTA Document EFTA01458963

8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity easing moves of the cycle. The outlook for economic recovery is not strong, but modestly above-trend economic growth means a gradual narrowing of the output gap and hence a gradual normalisation of core inflation. We expect that roughly a year from now the ECB will have to think about whether to extend QE again or to taper in 2017. It may be slightly more marginal after what happened on 3 December, but the balance of probabi