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efta-01458602DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01458602
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efta-01458602
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the pouithant
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The by fAtIUDS
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Asut,14/4 Napactioos
PrAtiolth
hvevirretuon
Portfolio
Our view of non-traditional asset classes
Alternatives portfolios
Due to their distinct characteristics, we take a
differentiated look at selected liquid and illiquid
alternative investments.
Liquid alternatives
■ Macro/CTA•
Most global macro managers have generated positive returns
this year. They have also weathered the recent pickup In market
volatility better than most other liquid-alternatives strategies.
More specifically, we feel that the persistent trend towards
monetary-policy divergence within developed economies and
between developed and emerging economies will continue to
be the primary determinant of the trading environment faced by
global macro managers over the next 12-month period. U.S.-
dollar strength has also forced a very diverse set of adjustment
paths on emerging markets. This should continue to generate
a healthy pipeline of opportunities both from a directional and
arbitrage standpoint through local-currency and rates trends.
Event-driven/_
relative
value
12,5%
22.5%
Credit
Macro/CIA•
_
Equity
long/short
Illiquid
hedge
funds
Infra-
structure
30.0%
Private
equity
_
Real estate
Illiquid alternatives
Real estate
in the United States, robust rental growth, rising occupancies
and the rolling-over of leases signed during the downturn to
higher current market rates should provide meaningful support
to cash flow and property values. With the exception of a small
number of markets, this year should see a further acceleration
of the office prime-rental recovery in Europe, with growth here
forecast to peak at around 3.5% per year in 2016 and 2017.
Finally, China's housing sector, a key factor behind slower
Chinese growth, is now turning positive. Shenzhen housing
prices started to recover first and the positive momentum is now
spreading to Shanghai and Beijing.
■ Private equity
in the United States, fundraising conditions remain favorable for
high-quality general panners. Debt availability is still good, even
though increasing macro volatility has led to a slightly tighter
financing market. Investment underwriting discipline however
remains paramount in the current environment. The outlook
for private equity is also positive in Europe with valuations
similar to U.S. levels and greater potential economic upside.
Uncertainty around China may however result in lower deal
activity in the second half of 2015, with a significant slowdown
across the wider Asian region. Higher volatility may make
limited partnerships more reluctant to commit more f unds.
Private-equity acquisition multiples remain above their 10-year
average for large deals in the United States and for all deal sizes
in Europe.
Sources; Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Investment
GmbH, Deutsche Bank AG Filiale London, as of 9/24115.
This allocation may not be suitable for all investors. In our
balanced model portfolio, we currently allocate 10% to alternative
investments (see "Portfolio")
Please refer to the following interview for the regulatory
requirements for the offer or sale of alternative investments.
Commodity Trading Advisor
:40Y«:.,
C.:),Athi Ammo.* E.Ii6)610;nobor 2015
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
DB-SDNY-0118585
SDNY_GM_00264769
EFTA01458602
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