Case File
efta-01461182DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01461182
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DOJ Data Set 10
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Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Rating
Company
Date
Buy
Aegerion Alert
18 November 2013
Company Update
North America
United States
Nice at 15 Nov 2013 (USD)
74.73
Health Care
AEGR.00
AEGR UO
NMS
AEGR
Nice !swot
115.00
Biotechnology
52-week range
97.24 - 20.17
Update post speaking with
Management
Research Analyst
We spoke to AEGR management regarding their plans for 2014 and are
updating our model to reflect the information. In particular we are raising our
SG&A expenses in 2014 in-line with the company's plans to invest in sales and
marketing. Our model also reflects the company guidance of becoming
profitable in 2H'14. Notably, the co would provide 2014 guidance at JPM
conference early next year.
Incremental color on SG&A increase. Invest upfront with 3 year outlook.
Acc to management, they believe it is more prudent to invest in SG&A keeping
a 3 year outlook and invest upfront for those years. The co would be increasing
sales force substantially in 2014 instead of increasing sales force every year.
Before the launch of Juxtapid, the co guided for 15 sales reps in the US. We
believe the number is higher now and is expected to increase.
Focus on customer care to help with prescriptions/reimbursement
The co will be making investments in all three buckets of SG&A 1) sales, 2)
marketing and 3) medical affairs. The co expects to make substantial
investments in customer care reps who take care of reimbursement and
prescription generation. The co. launched with 4 customer care reps and now
have 8 such reps. The co expects to increase this to 20 by YE 2013 and to 40
by YE 2014.We are now modeling 2014 SG&A expenses at S1 25M vs. S95M
prey. This is -671450M) higher vs. current SG&A run rate of $75M (Or 13).
Guidance foist! in
I.: was a refkietion of inanniiement
be
likely
tortie in line with the guidance
Management style is conservative at the beginning of the year but likely will be
in-line toward end of year. The company seems confident of achieving 2013
guidance as the company has good visibility about scripts which would lead to
new patient starts in 4Q. 40'13 numbers would likely come in-line in given
management style. This guidance assumes shipping delays due to some
patients delaying treatment which comes with diet modifications till holidays
end. The guidance also accounts for less shipping days in 4Q.
Given the increase in expenses, we are now modeling the company becoming
profitable in 211'14 which is In-line with the guidance.
2014 to be reimbursement year in the EU. Consensus might be high
Management also noted that 2014 would be the year of reimbursement
negotiations in the EU and they do not expect substantial revenues from the
EU in 2014. The company expects most of the EU companies to come online
by the end of 2014.We are reducing our EU revenues to $10M vs. $13M
previous and note that consensus is at $17M for 2014 EU revenues.
SBC to increase in 2014 due to stock price increase. We are raising SBC to
$30M vs. $25M previous.
We reiterate Buy with St 15 TP.
Research Analyst
Market cap (USD)
2.153.6
Shales outstanding (m)
28.8
Free float 1%)
100
Volume (15 Nov 2013)
276.887
Option volume fund. shrs.. 1M
avg.)
-Key data
FYE 12/31
2012A
2013E
2014E
10 EPS
-0.65
-
20 EPS
-0.63
30 EPS
-0.59
-
40 EPS
-086
-
-
FY EPS (USD}
-2.64
-1.96
1.47
PIE (x)
51.0
Swat' Osenbe ant
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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ABOVE
ACCURATELY REFLECT PERSONAL VIEWS OF THE AUTHORS ABOUT THE SUBJECT COMPANY(IES) AND ITS(THEIR)
SECURITIES. THEY HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY COMPENSATION FOR PROVIDING A SPECIFIC
RECOMMENDATION
OR
VIEW
IN
THIS
REPORT.
FOR
OTHER
DISCLOSURES
PLEASE
VISIT
http://gm.db.com/ger/d isc losure/Disclosure eqsr ?ricCode=AEGR.OQ MICA(P) 054/04/2013.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0123049
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00269233
EFTA01461182
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