EFTA01466694

Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] From: Vahe Stepanian Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2014 07:54:56 -0500 To: Vinit Sahni Cc: Nav Gupta Tazia Smith Paul Morris Classification: Confidential Good Afternoon Vinit- Tazia is travelling today, so please let me know if you need anything from our end. Thank you, Vahe (Embedded image moved to file: pic13021.gif) Vahe Stepanian Associate I Wealth Investment Coverage Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management From: Vinit Sahni/db/- dbcom@DBEMEA To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]>@DEUBAINT, Cc: Paul Morris/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS, Tazia Smith/db/- dbcom@DBAMERICAS, Nav Gupta/db/dbcom@DBEMEA, Vahe Stepanian/db/- EFTA01466694 dbcom@DBAmericas Date: AM 01/14/2014 06:00 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] Classification: Confidential got it back to u as soon as NY opens up (Embedded image moved to file: pic14424.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Mana'ement Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. EFTA01466695 (Embedded image moved to file: pic00355.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein [email protected]> To: Vinit Sahni/db/- dbcom@DBEMEA, Date: 10:55 14/01/2014 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] usd 3m bonds On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 6:41 AM, Vinit Sahni e > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - sorry, to clarify is it 3m USD worth of MXN bonds or 3m MXN, as its a local currency bond. As soon as NY gets in will get a price on the MBONO 7.75% 11/13/2042 and ping u as and when our view on rates or the currency changes will keep u updated, as here u have risk on both components unlike the PDVSA where the bond was denominated in USDs. Best Vinit EFTA01466696 (Embedded image moved to file: pic19258.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Mana'ement Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. (Embedded image moved to file: pic10879.gif) From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Date: 10:18 14/01/2014 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Mexico -> MBONO 30y look interesting [C] EFTA01466697 agreed lets do 3m On Tue, Jan 14, 2014 at 4:23 AM, Vinit Sahni a wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - was looking for value in the EM space, post the PDVSA analysis, started looking at Mexico... here is a trade I think makes sense -> buying MBONO 30y unhedged At around 7.5% yield, inflation probably in the 3-4% in the foreseeable future, and USD/MXN likely stable or stronger in real (deflated) terms, I think it is good value. The curve is steep. If you look at 10Y10Y UST and 10Y10Y MXN yields, the spread is above 500bp . Say inflation differential is 100bp higher in Mex and credit diff is 100bp (10Y CDS is about 100bp higher in Mexico although Mex has much better debt dyn), this still leaves about 300bp of cushion for real depreciation per year...In sum, it seems good value near term mark to market risk is slower pace of implementation of energy reform and a selloff in USTs happy to discuss further if u find interesting... (Embedded image moved to file: pic04930.gif) CNYMXN chart courtesy Nav Gupta (shows relative value in Labour cost between China and Mexico) (Embedded image moved to file: pic20087.gif) (Embedded image moved to file: pic24781.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group EFTA01466698 Deutsche Asset & Wealth Mana•ement (Embedded image moved to file: pic12443.gif) Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Fro Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> M: To: Vinit Sahni/db/- dbcom@DBEMEA, Cc: Tazia Smith/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS, "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" Dat 13/01/2014 11:50 e: Sub Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade EFTA01466699 [C] jec t: thanks , lets keep On Mon, Jan 13, 2014 at 7:47 AM, Vinit Sahni < EM> wrote: Classification: Confidential This attached image shows the current pricing on the curve, which is slightly weaker than it was in early December. I have also added the term structure of PDVSA and VENZ sovereign bonds, which gives us some relative value across the curve Bouts of volatility will likely remain an issue and therefore it will trade like a short tail risk trade. However, given that access to dollars remains key for Venezuela, we should expect the government to do whatever they can to avoid a problem servicing these bonds (or even the perception of the same). They do have a heavy amortization schedule in 2014 and 2015. (Embedded image moved to file: pic29871.gif) Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Client Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Mana.ement EFTA01466700 (Embedded image moved to file: pic30252.gif) From Tazia Smith/db/- dbcom@DBAMERICAS To: "jeffrey epstein" <[email protected]>, Cc: "Vinit Sahni" <a, "Nav Gupta (DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAG)" Date 12/01/2014 22:52 Subj Re: PDVSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] ect: Classification: Confidential Looping in Vinit here as he was recently involved with a large offering in the pdvsa credit and may have some take-sways. My view is the bonds are money good in 2015, as of now, but you are not looking for yield carry (as discussed), and the risks of restructuring and near-term downside due to politics specific to venezuela and chatter around EFTA01466701 EM assets at large are likely greater than implied by the bonds' current —85 levels; would use Friday's rally to sell (particularly if you believe it was rates driven vs credit). For what it's worth, we've found Latam family offices that are very familiar the credit (and do like carry) are fully loaded and do not have incremental demand. Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management From: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Sent: 01/12/2014 04:56 PM AST To: Tazia Smith Subject: Re: PVDSA chart + USDJPY Trade [C] do you think money good in 15 a On Sun, Jan 12, 2014 at 4:38 PM, Tazia Smith e > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey: Please find the chart of PDVSA 5% 10/28/15 price history below, as well as description of the USDJPY 10yr trade that we briefly discussed on Friday. Speak with you soon, Tazia EFTA01466702 (Embedded image moved to file: pic04083.gif) Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP, 1/10/14 Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 01/12/2014 03:29 PM From: dbcom@DBEMEA Nav Gupta/db/- To: Tazia Smith/db/- dbcom@DBAMERICAS, Date: AM 01/10/2014 08:21 Subject: $Y [I] Classification: For internal use only Long $Y Call Options. We like long expiry options to benefit from the present dislocation between interest rates and volatility Deutsche Bank FX Strategists are calling for USDJPY of 115 by year-end 2014 and 120 by year-end 2015. See DB FX Blueprint published 1/9/14, and note that #2 of the top 10 themes of 2014 (p. 5-6) revolves around extended weakness in the Japanese Yen vs. USD. Consider a lOyear expiry $Y call option struck at 85 (spot fx 105, forward fx 77.70). Price 4.7% of USD notional This option has four notable characteristics If $Y stays at these levels the option decays positively by approx 15-20% per year EFTA01466703 If $Y trades 90.00 at any time (arguably a scenario in which the option is no longer wanted) the option "knocks-out" and becomes worthless. While $Y might decline to 90, our quantitative analysis indicates the probability of such a decline is significantly (double?) overpriced by the options market The premium of the option is quite sensitive to moves in $Y spot - which is atypical for a lOyear option. This also results from the knockout feature. This means if $Y moves quickly by 5% the option increases / decreases in value by almost half, so If $Y rises to 110 or 115 the option can easily be unwound to monetize the profit The option costs roughly 1/3rd compared to the vanilla 85 strike call Maximum loss is premium paid Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London Deutsche Asset & Wealth Mana ement m Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. Tazia Smith EFTA01466704 Director I Key Client Partners - US Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. - _ **********************************************************# The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) EFTA01466705 please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of EFTA01466706 Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. *********************************************************** The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA01466707