EFTA02133365

From: Ike Groff Sent Mon 7/29/2013 9:44:56 AM Subject: Early Tour 7.29.13 Good Morning ... European Markets mostly higher +0-50 bps (Italy -0.30%, Portugal -0.09%) ASX200 +0.08%, NKY225 -3.32%, KOSPI -0.57%, TWSE -0.80%, SHCOMP -1.71%, HSI - 0.54% EUR 1.3289 (+0.07%) JPY 97.94 (+0.28%) GBP 1.5401 (+0.13%) Japan 10yr 0.796% US 10yr 2.56% Futures: Dow -21, Nasdaq -3, S&P -2 DXY 81.56 (-0.12%) Crude $104.35 (-0.33%) Gold $1330.60 (+0.66%) Copper -0.03% With the exception of Australia, which was able to eke out a small gain, the AsiaPac region was a sea of red. Volumes were light as the market awaits the FOMC/ECB/BOE meetings as well as housing and GDP data due out later this week. Japan's underperformance was driven by concerns on the implementation of the consumption tax and the move in the JPY which hit exporters hard. China was also lower as banks lagged following local reports that the government said they were going to start a nationwide audit of local government borrowings going down to the village level. The June industrial profits number out over the weekend also not helping (+11.1% y/y vs prior +12.3%). Hong Kong followed the mainland lower as well, although solar stocks were a bright spot after EU and China agreed to fix minimum price of imported solar panels. South Korea ended on the lows, with tech names lower after MS downgraded the semiconductor sector to cautious from attractive. European markets mostly higher to start the week with Italy & Portugal underperforming and down small. Some M&A over the weekend with the Omnicom/Publicis merger of equals, Essilor buying Transitions Optical, Perrigo buying Elan, and Saks reportedly close to a deal in which it would be acquired by Hudson's Bay of Canada. European banks underperforming today with Barclays -3.0% (spec of cap raise, #'s tomorrow), Commerzbank -1.8% (spec may need further write-down on shipping assets), Banco Espirito -2.3% (earnings), Credit Agricole -1.1% (JPM downgrade) some of the reasons why. It will be another heavy earnings calendar this week and we will also get FOMC, ECB, BOE announcements later in the week. SPA's -2 handles = 1684.20 last. "'Pending Home Sales @ 9am, Dallas Fed @ 10:30am"• —BEN, HTZ, SOHU Ws pre-open, ESRX, HIG, JEC, FIRE, HLF, RATE, VECO Ws post close— EFTA_R1_00779804 EFTA02133365 • Omnicom/Publicis announce $35B merger of equals to create the world's largest agency holding company • Saks: Hudson Bay close to a deal to acquire Saks Inc. (deal could be announced today) (WSJ) • Rockwood Holdings (ROC) to sell its clay-based additives business to Germany's Altana for $635 million • Danone sales growth exceeds estimates on baby nutrition unit, O2 LFL's +6.5% vs est +5.7% (trading +3.3%) • Essilor buys Transitions Optical from PPG for $1.73 billion (will also acquire Intercast as part of deal) • Reckitt Benckiser H1 numbers look inline, says sales to rise at upper end of target this year (trading +0.52%) • Barclays considering £4B share sale to ease BOE concerns says the Sunday Times (trading -3.0%) • Spiegel says Bafin worried further shipping asset write-downs needed for some banks (CBK GY 1.8%) • Siemens to replace CEO Peter Loescher, likely that CFO will replace him says the FT (trading +0.36%) • GN Store raises FY outlook for ReSound unit (organic rev growth > +7% vs prior +4-6%) (trading +5.9%) • Ryanair O1 numbers look relatively inline, reiterates guidance, warns of tough market (trading - 2.4%) • SAP's McDermott plans €200 million savings program according to the WiWO weekly paper (trading +0.49%) • JC Decaux O2 numbers beat estimates but expects a slowdown in Q3 with tough 2012 comps (trading +0.41%) • Eiffage reported after the close on Friday, confirms 2013 sales target, order book E12.5 billion (trading -0.04%) • Jazztel mixed, reports strong mobile net adds, Q2 ebitda €44.9 million vs €44.2 million year ago (trading +2.7%) • Ziggo: Liberty Media rasies stake in Ziggo from 18.2% to 28.5% for "strategic reasons" (ZIGGO NA +4.2%) • KPN: American Movil terminates relationship pact (means that AMX can increase stake) (KPN NA +4.1%) • Perrigo (PRGO) to buy Elan (ELN ID) for $8.6B in cash & stock deal ($16.50/share = 10.5% premium) • Rio Tinto sells Northparkes copper-gold mine stake for $820 million to China Molybdenum (RIO LN +0.26%) EFTA_R1_00779805 EFTA02133366 • Intertek H1 comes in below expectations, organic rev growth +6.3%, H2 outlook is mixed (trading 1.4%) • Banco Espirito reported Friday after the close, posts H1 loss €237 million as provisions rise (trading - 2.3%) • Dia numbers look inline with expectations, H1 net income E48.95 million vs E49.3 million year ago (trading +2.7%) • Galp Energia says that Q2 adjusted net profit fell -33% due to higher depreciation costs (trading +0.75%) • Aberdeen (Scotland's largest money manager) AUM at June 30 £209.6B vs £212.2B on March 31 (trading -2.3%) • Sika H1 results come in better than expected, reports strong growth in emerging markets (trading +5.1%) • TNT Express numbers messy but look — inline with ests, still sees challenging trading conditions (trading -5.2%) • UK mortgage approvals unexpectedly declined in June and business lending fell says the BOE • German's Wolfgang Schauble says that the pressure remains on Greece ("far from being over the mountain') • German election: new Emnid poll out suggests Merkel's current coalition with the FDP may not get majority • Bank of Japan's Kuroda gives speech on Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) (fun text) Leading European Sectors: Autos/Parts +0.91%, Healthcare +0.86%, Telecom +0.73% Lagging European Sectors: Banks -0.20%, Financial Services -0.13%, Utilities +0.06% CYOU guides down — FTK guides up — SOHU eps beat Secondaries (announced/priced): N/A IPO's: Five Prime Therapeutics (FPRX) files $60M IPO through Jefferies, BMO and Wells Fargo US Key Research: EFTA_R1_00779806 EFTA02133367 Jefferies initiates VSTM (buy) & downgrades APD, JPM downgrades FLIR, Raja cuts FCBC & upgrades CPSI • KBW cuts FCBCIWCBO, Opco upgrades COG/RRC, RBC cuts TROW, JPM cuts FLIR, B. Riley cuts WTSLA Europe Key Research: • JPM downgrades ACA FP, UBS upgrades WPP LW, Exane downgrades KER FP, Berenberg downgrades BAER VX • HSBC upgrades SPR GY & downgrades TF1 FP, UBS removes GETIB SS from least preferred list ▪ UBS removes GALN SW from most preferred list, Natixis upgrades SESG FP and downgrades RXL FP & BB FP DB upgrades HMB SS, RBC upgrades AF FP, Berenberg initiates VOW GY (buy), Singer upgrades CPR LN • DZ Bank upgrades WIN GY, CS assumes ASML NA (op), Akros upgrades SIS IM, BofA upgrades PUB FP BofA downgrades RYA ID, Barlcays initiates VCT LN (ow), Berenberg downgrades RXL FP, DB upgrades BELG BB • DB upgrades PUB FP, DB downgrades RXL FP, Equinet downgrades AJA GY, Gilbert Dupont downgrades RIA FP Jefferies downgrades MARS LN, Kepler downgrades PSG SM & LONN SW, Landesbank downgrades KRN GY • Mediobanca upgrades PIA IM, MS upgrades SBMO NA, Oddo downgrades GBT FP & AF FP • SocGen downgrades A3M SM & upgrades PUB FP & resumes ICAD FP (h) Reporting Pre-Open: BEN, L, ROP, SPG, AHC, AWI, BWP, CALM, CBX, CFFN, CAN, CNO, CYOU, DCIX, DSPG, EDR, FLML, BAE, HMST, HTZ, LECO, MCY, MWIV, NCLH, OCZ, ONB, SBCF, SOHU, STNG, TEN, TGE Reporting Post-Close: PAC, EMN, ESRX, FMC, HIG, JEC, MAS, NU, PCL, VRTX, XL, ADC, ADVS. AEIS, AFG, AGNC, Al, AKR, ALSN, AMKR, ARE, CEB, CGI, CGNX, XMP, CRK, CYH, CZR, DAC, DENN, EAC, ECOL, EEP, FIRE, FVE, GAIN, GGP, GIMO, GLRE, HLF, HTLF, IBCP, ICAD, IPHS, IVAC, JJSF, KAI, KAMN, KRC, KWR, LMNX, MTW, NATI, NATL, NTRI, OMI, PCL, PMC, PMCS, PPS, PRE, PRGX, PSB, PSMI, RATE, SIMO, SONS, SPN, SSW, TXRH, VECO, WPCS, WPP EFTA_R1_00779807 EFTA02133368 Economic Data: Pending Home Sales @ 9am, Dallas Fed c 10:30am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: FTK Non-Deal Roadshows: SILC, SYNT, TKMR Shareholder Meetings: NGG, PBH, SCM, FLEX, TRLG Equity/Mixed Shelfs: BXMT, EFX, EC Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's cover: Negative on Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) Barron's Barron's cautious: Restoration Hardware (RH) Barron's Barron's positive: Dover (DOV) Barron's HollyFrontier (HFC) Barron's • Federal Reserve 'Doves' Beat 'Hawks' in Economic Prognosticating WSJ • Middle East peace talks to resume in Washington FT • China to freeze trade probes in solar deal FT • Siemens board to vote on future of chief executive Peter Loescher FT • Hedge funds gripped by crisis of performance FT • Detroit looks at grim economics of garage sale FT • Egypt killings highlight role of Ministry of Interior FT EFTA_R1_00779808 EFTA02133369 • US economy takes Olympic leap to add 3% to GDP FT • Policy paralysis in Europe could extend far past German election FT • New Glass-Steagall would help to keep lenders in line FT • European data protection under a cloud FT • Benghazi blasts and jail break rock Libya FT • Veterans remain favourites as Malians vote in presidential poll FT • Italy in suspense as it waits for verdict on Berlusconi appeal FT • Leviathan scrambles to connect with audience FT • Twitter will simplify reporting of abuse FT • Nate Silver, data guru returns to sport FT • Betting on start-ups can revive a tired presidency FT • Europe ought to let its hopeless causes go bankrupt FT • West needs to criticise Putin — but not support his rivals FT • Chinese companies poised to boost offshore borrowing levels FT • Systemic risk from Detroit bankruptcy played down FT • Investors pour record sums into leveraged loan funds FT • View from the Top: Rob Speyer FT • UK's anti-bribery rules good for business, says trade envoy FT • China is going to slow down but it can handle it FT • What the Federal Reserve needs FT • Grant Thornton accused of wrongdoing in Tchenguiz case FT • Cannes thief pulls off daylight diamond raid FT • Kuroda backs Japan sales tax hike FT • Publicis/Omnicom: Does not ad up yet Lex • China and water: opportunity arises Lex • Discounted cash flow: seeing the future Lex • Smartphones: getting dumber Lex EFTA_R1_00779809 EFTA02133370 • Crackdown in Egypt Fans U.S. Fears WSJ • Perrigo to Buy Elan for $8.6 Billion WSJ • Corporate Profits Lose Steam WSJ • Firms Set Curbs on Trading WSJ • Yield Seekers Get Their Second Wind From Fed WSJ • More Doctors Steer Clear of Medicare WSJ • Fight on Detroit Retiree Funds Looms WSJ • EU Resolves Solar-Panel Trade Dispute With China WSJ • Grand Bargain Eludes Budget Negotiations WSJ • Weiner Brushes Off Campaign Manager's Exit WSJ • City's Immigration Laws Blocked Again WSJ • Booker Taps Ties to Jewish Community in Senate Race WSJ • Leases for Prime Manhattan Office Push Higher WSJ • Bulgaria's Endless Protests WSJ • Obama's Fed Circus WSJ • Janet Yellen Is the Best Fed Choice WSJ • Immigrant Scientists Enrich the U.S. WSJ • Obama Signals Retreat in the War on Drugs WSJ • Immigrant Scientists Enrich the U.S. WSJ • Take winter fuel grant from rich pensioners and give to poor, MPs say The Times • Shutting up shop: more than 30,000 stores now empty The Times • Idle rigs pour cold water over North Sea boom The Times • Senior Tory in crusade for railway competition The Times • Groundswell of talent is driving lean-energy cars The Times • Parents are propping up the rental sector The Times • Detectives paid to check out Chinese companies The Times • Trade Secrets: Isa savers must be wary of AIM The Times EFTA_R1_00779810 EFTA02133371 • Five ways to widen the Tory appeal and win The Times • Obama must end aid to Egypt before more die The Times • Publicis and Omnicom's £23bn merger knocks Sorrell's WPP off global summit Independent • Mega-projects Crossrail and FIS2 facing cost hike on skills gap Independent • More homes on the market — but prices rise again Independent • Labour to give jobs watchdog more teeth Independent • Margareta Pagano: Time to tackle lack of risk-taking with enterprise Independent • Ben Chu: China could be the new Japan if it doesn't heed signs of stagnation Independent • Anthony Hilton: It's wrong to pillory the regulators for making the banks safer with capital Independent • Jim Armitage: A year on, and Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro should be applauded Independent • Barclays to seek cash as £7bn capital hole looms Telegraph • Heathrow to track customers through airport to cut cost of delays Telegraph • Liffe could move to US under new owner Telegraph • Goldman Sachs denies aluminium price-rigging Telegraph • How Britain leads the world in social-good capitalism Telegraph • Why UK funds cost twice as much American funds Telegraph • Sports Direct: 90% of staff on zero-hour contracts Guardian • New direction needed to lead us out of Wongaland Guardian • GDP figures leave Labour in need of new plan of attack Guardian • Why won't concrete fly? It's a key question for Australia's economy Guardian • What is the Labour party for? We still don't know the answer to that question Guardian • Latest US-China talks should smooth the way China Daily • Global bond bubble will cripple all investors when it bursts City AM • Making money in Tinseltown is easy: Just pick the right people City AM EFTA_R1_00779811 EFTA02133372 Key Events This Week Tuesday: FOMC Meeting (2 days), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Eurozone confidence, Earnings (AET, ACI, BARC LN, CMI, CVLT, DDD, DBK GY, DISCA, MRK, MWV, NLSN, NOV, NYX, ODP, OSK, OXY, PEA, PFE, S, UBS, WU, X, AMGN, CVG, FISV, FTNT, ISIL, RVBD, SNCR, SYMC) Wednesday: Month End, FOMC rate decision, ADP Employment Report, US GDP, Chicago PMI, Eurozone CPI, China NSB & HSBC July manufacturing, Earnings (AB, ADT, AMT, BNP, CMCSA, EXC, GRMN, H, HES, HSP, IACI, IVZ, JNY, LVLT, MA, SODA, TX, WFT, ALL, ATML, CBS, DOX, DWA, EQY, LNC, MCHP, MET, NXPI, PL, ROVI, SPWR, TRN, WFM, YELP) Thursday: US Markit PMI, Auto Sales July, Challenger Job Cuts, Construction Spending, GOOG Moto X launch, BOE & ECB rate decision, Eurozone manufacturing PMI July, Earnings (ADP, AVP, BZH, CAH, CHK, CI, CLX, CME, COP, DTV, FLR, ITG, K, MWW, NILE, NYT, PG, TDC, TWC, WWE, XOM, AIG, KRFT, LNKD, ONNN, ONXX, OPEN, SBAC, SYNA, VCLK, WTW) Friday: July Employment Report, Personal Income & Spending, Factory Orders, Dell shareholder meeting, Eurozone June PPI, China non-manufacturing PMI July, Earnings (ANR, CBOE, CVC, CVX, EAT, RBS, TXU, OZM, VIA) Sunday: HSBC services China PMI (Sunday night) Key Events on the Horizon August 21 — Fed Minutes from July30/31 FOMC meeting August 22-24 — Jackson Hole Annual Economic Policy Symposium (Bernanke not attending) September 5 — BOE/ECB rate decisions September 18 — FOMC rate decision EFTA_R1_00779812 EFTA02133373 September 22 — German elections Ike Groff 680 Washin ton Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 This e-mail and any files transmitted with It are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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