EFTA02136008

From: Sent: Fri 6/14/2013 9:41:03 AM Subject: Early Tour 6.14.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 30-90 bps (Italy -0.28%, Turkey/Greece +2.0%) ... ASX +2.04%, NKY225 +1.94%, KOSPI +0.35%, TWSE -0.18%, SHCOMP +0.65%, HSI +0.63% EUR 1.3325 (-0.37%) JPY 94.96 (+0.44%) EUR/JPY 126.53 (-0.82%) AUD 0.9608 (-0.30%) NZD 0.8068 (-0.37%) GBP 1.563 (-0.55%) Spain 10yr 4.54% Italy 10yr 4.26% Portugal 6.31% Germany 10yr 1.53% Japan 10yr 0.82% US 10yr 2.12% Futures: Dow -3, Nasdaq +1, S&P -0 DXY $80.85 (+10c) Crude 597.17 (+47c) Gold $1380.20 (+$2.40) Copper +0.46% Silver +0.45% Most of Asia ended broadly in the green following the US gains overnight. Japan gapped higher in heavy volume due to expiry, but the Nikkei opened below 13k which seemed to set a disappointing tone for the day. Japan did manage to stay positive but indices closed on the lows. Nomura's upgrade of NKY year- end forecast to 18,000 helped sentiment as did the JPY moving back to 95.8 in the early morning after touching 93.6 overnight. Materials and financials helped Australia have its biggest single day rise since January 2012. China and Hong Kong were higher as mainland developers rallied on a China Securities Journal article that luxury home sales jumped higher in May. ASEAN indices also bounced back from the sharp sell off earlier this week with Thailand +4.1%, Indonesia +3.3%, Philippines +2.1%, and Singapore +0.98%. News flow out of Europe very quiet today and markets generally up on low conviction as sovereign yields back up a bit. EuroStoxx600 +0.33% in the green after 4 consecutive down days. Defensives underperforming but volume feels light. Hilsenrath blog on the WSJ online late yesterday "Fed likely to push back on market expectations of rate increase" (link) reads a little less dovish than the headline suggests and doesn't really say anything new. It merely states that the tapering will be gradual and even after the bond-buying ends short-term rates are likely to stay low for a while. But he thinks Bernanke is likely to use next Wednesday's press conference to reiterate this point given many seem to be shifting their outlook for initial rate increases sooner than previous expectations of mid- 2015. SPA's flat = 1630 last. ***PPI / Current Account Balance @ 8:30am, IP @ 9:15am, Michigan Confidence © 9:55am*** ***Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST*** EFTA_R1_00784637 EFTA02136008 • Restoration Hardware loss narrowed on strong sss growth & raised rev view (trading +11%) • US backs direct military aid to Syrian rebels after confirming Assad use of chemical weapons • A surprise spike in mortgage rates threatens to halt refinancing boom (avg 30yr 4.15%) (WSJ) • Fed's bond-buying wild card: many investors have lowered expectations for future inflation (WSJ) • Elan: J&J sold 25.4M shares via acc book build, ending 4 year relationship (ELN ID trading +1.6%) • UCB announces positive phase III results for certolizumab pegal (trading +0.90%) • Novo Nordisk "very confident" in the safety profile for diabetic drug Victoza (trading +0.30%) • Hochtief to cement floor in share price with E260M share buyback over 6 months (trading +5.8%) • Barry Callebaut places 318k shares (CHF279mn) @ 875 to part finance Petra deal (trading -1.0%) • Fiat's Marchionne close to refinancing deals, keeping Chrysler tie up on track (trading -1.2%) • Volkswagen steers company to May sales of 816.5k units — an increase of 6.9% (trading +1.3%) • RBS: Cameron says people more focused on price than timing, cooling sale speculation (trading - 0.70%) • India's May inflation rate slows to a 43-month low (+4.7% versus median forecast +4.88%) Leading European Sectors: Real Estate +2.06%, Basic Res +1.33°k, Autos/Parts +1.22% Lagging European Sectors: Media -0.19%, Utilities -0.17%, Healthcare -0.09% IVAC order — TWO declares dividend — NWSA cfo to retire OCLS #'s light — SWHC $100M buyback — OCN purchases MSRs Secondaries (announced/priced): CEMP, GNRC, HIMX, ELN, ECTE, BARN SW IPO's (filed/priced): Envision Healthcare (EVH) files $100M IPO through Goldman, Barclays, BofA and Citi US Key Research: EFTA_R1_00784638 EFTA02136009 • Barclays downgrades AXP, BNP upgrades CSC (buy), GS downgrades RBCN (sell) Jeff downgrades SO & upgrades OGE (buy) & initiates NLNK (buy). RBC downgrades MYGN • Mizuho initiate AVNR (buy), DA Davidson initiates FMBI/MBFI (buy) & VVTFC/FMER/TAYC (neutral) • KeyBanc upgrades HRL (buy), Opco upgrades GME, DB upgrades GRPN (buy), UBS downgrades STI Europe Key Research: • Barclays reits underweight OCDO LN, Berenberg raises pt ABI BB. JPM, Raja cuts price target VER AV • JPM reinstate ABI BB (ow), upgrade RHK GY, downgrade REM SJ, GS initiate SDRL NO (n) • UBS u/g GPOR LN, RDGZ KZ, d/g ANG SJ, initiate HSX LN (n), CGL LN (n), AML LN (n) • UBS add INF LN to most pref list - remove ATO FP, add AML LN to least pref list - remove MCRO LN • UBS add LRE LN to key call list — cut DEC FP, BRG NO, Akros downgrade A2A IM ▪ BofAML downgrade HOLN VX, KepChev upgrade LXS GY, reinstate CASS IM (h) Citi upgrade Basic Resources, downgrade Industrials, Citi add RNO FP to focus list • Citi downgrade RI FP, name CCH LN most pref stock, name GCC ID least pref stock ▪ SocGen upgrade GOt FP, HSBC upgrade HOME LN, downgrade ITX SM, RBC upgrade RDSA LN Swedbank upgrade TEL NO, Exane downgrade SIS IM, Nordea upgrade DNB NO, SWEDA SS • Investec upgrade RR/ LN, initiate ALGBE FP (b), CA FP (b), Oddo initiate FP FP Medio upgrade LLOY LN, JEFF initiate RBS LN (b), LLOY LN (n), Bernstein upgrade GN DC, ENI IM Reporting Pre-Open: AMSC, NGL, SFD Economic Data: PPI / Current Account Balance @ 8:30am, TIC Flows © 9am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization @ 9:15am. U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence @ 9:55am Conferences: DB Industrials And Basic Materials (Chicago) EFTA_R1_00784639 EFTA02136010 Analyst/Investor Days: CEB Non-Deal Roadshows: BIOS, CAH, CE, CELG, CMGE, FMBI, HITT, IMPV, LNG, LNKD, MERU, MRK, PANW, PBCT, PNR, QADA, RMBS, TSLA Shareholder Meetings: APEI, EXLS, QLTI, HRZN, ADXS, AMSF, ECHO, MHGC, SIG, TAXI, REGN, CHK, PERY, WCN, MELT, VRNM, BTG Equity/Mixed Shelfs: MYL Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: Broadcasters WSJ • Refinancings plunge as bond yields rise WSJ • Sympathy for the Luddites NYT (Paul Krugman Op-Ed) • When Bemanke confounds, Wall Street reaches for theories yti • The US confirms it is prepared to send arms to Syria rebels The Times • Price of e-books 'no problem' for Apple The Times • Shopping spree 'will be put on hold for five years' The Times • Britain falls out of fashion for Mulberry The Times • Pay cut for Burberry chief Angela Ahrendts as China sales dip The Times • Alarmed investors follow Stephen Hester out the door at RBS The Times • Ministers are rotten shareholders. Sell RBS now The Times (Opinion) • Labour's addicted to meddling, not spending The Times (Opinion' • Obama gives go-ahead to arm Syria rebels FT • US lawmakers question Snowden China ties FT EFTA_R1_00784640 EFTA02136011 • Whether to vote or not is the question as Iran poll looms FT • Turkish PM steps back from confrontation with protesters FT • Agricultural groups explore impact of ruling FT • US: Starved of healthy options FT • Hopes for G8 trade and tax deals dented FT • China group plans $40bn Panama Canal rival FT • Safeway: rump stake Lex • Coty: smelling sweet Lex • France Telecom: hanging on the line Lex • U.S. to Arm Syrian Rebels WSJ • Foreign Stakes Shield Two Phone Firms from Sweep WSJ • Argentina's Menem Sentenced to Jail WSJ • Behind the Big Profits: A Research Tax Break WSJ • Iran votes for new president: Farewell Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, we'll miss you — but not that much... Independent • Fears raised over close ties between RBS and top accountant KPMG Independent • Britain could overtake France to become second-largest car maker in Europe Telegraph • Bombardier blow as Siemens wins £1.6bn Thameslink deal Telegraph • NatWest 'most trusted big bank' despite IT meltdown Telegraph • Statistically speaking, politicians place too much faith in figures Telegraph • Mark Carney: Bank governors journey from wilderness to heart of the City Guardian Key Events Next Week Monday: G8 Summit (Northern Ireland), Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, Europe trade balance, RBA minutes, Jefferies Global Consumer Conf (Nantucket) Tuesday: CPI, Housing Starts & Building Permits, ECB Draghi speaks, Obama visits Berlin, Wells Fargo Health Care Conference (Boston), Earnings (ADBE, LAZ) EFTA_R1_00784641 EFTA02136012 Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision & Bernanke Press Conference, China Flash PMI June, Earnings (FDX, JBL, MU, RHT) Thursday: US Flash June PMI, Philadelphia Fed, Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, Samsung product launch event, Eurozone Fin Min Meeting, Earnings (KR, ORCL) Friday: Quadruple Witching, Quarterly share rebalance for the S&P 500/S&P MidCap 400/S&P SmallCap 600 on close, FTSE UK Index Series & EuroStoxx 600 adds/deletes on close, Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance, Earnings (KMX) Key Events on the Horizon June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor July 10 — Fed Minutes from June 18/19 FOMC meeting July 11 — BOJ rate decision July 21 — Upper House elections in Japan July 31 — FOMC rate decision September 18 — FOMC rate decision September 22 — German elections EFTA_R1_00784642 EFTA02136013 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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