EFTA02140417

From: Ike Groff Sent: Fri 5/3/2013 9:51:39 AM Subject: Early Tour 5.3.13 Good Morning ... European Markets mixed... ASX -0.01%, KOSPI +0.43%, TWSE +0.08%, SHCOMP +1.45%, HSI +0.09% EUR 1.3127 (+0.47%) JPY 98.12 (-0.19%) EUR/JPY 128.81 (+0.66%) Spain 10yr 3.97% Italy 10yr 3.74% US 10yr 1.64% Futures: Dow -11, Nasdaq -1, S&P -2 DXY $81.99 (-23c) Crude $93.80 (-19c) Gold $1476.20 (+$8.60) Copper +2.77% Silver +0.97% Asian markets mixed in a very quiet trading session with Japan off and news flow on the slow side. China received most of the attention as chatter of a rate cut over the weekend helped boost mainland indices. Financials and property names were stronger as land sales in April up 200%YoY in first tier cities. Brokers were also higher after PBOC and CSRC said they intended to approve RMB200 billion worth of additional ROFII quota by year end. Current ROFII quota stands at RMB70 billion. South Korea ended at the highs amid speculation of a possible BoK cut next week. India is trading lower after the RBI cut interest rates for a third straight meeting to revive growth. Japan will remain closed on Monday and reopen on Tuesday. European markets also mixed this morning. Spread tightening in the periphery continuing with Spain 10yr falling below 4% for first time since 2010 and Italy bonds rallying with 2yr yield below 1% for first time on record. ECB left the door open for further measures to help the economy yesterday and while Draghi hinted on negative deposit rates ECB Governing Council member Nowotny out this morning saying comments were "over interpreted" and no plans to cut below zero which has the Euro rebounding. European Commission however, released a report that cut GDP forecasts for the region and expects and "increasing labor-market mismatch" keeping unemployment rates higher. Commodities rallying with metals leading the way (Copper +2.77%) and SPAs -2 handles = 1590.50 last ahead of the US Labor report out at 8:30am. "'April Employment Report © 8:30am (Payroll Estimates: NFP +140k / PP +150k)*** ***Factory Orders / ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite © 10am*** —ADP, DUK, HST, MCO, NWL report earnings pre-open"' —China HSBC services PMI out Sunday night— • AIG O1 beat ests showing strong "strength across the board" (to cut costs further) (trading +2%) • Kraft net fell but beat as managed to grow sales cost savings materialized quickly (trading +2%) EFTA_R1_00794147 EFTA02140417 • Linkedln earnings tripled but trading off 10% on disappointing rev outlook for shift to mobile • Open Table O1 revs inline but cuts forecast (sees $185.3M-$190.0M vs $190.4M ests) (trading - 2%) • Microchip sees Q1 adjusted eps above estimates & declared qtrly cash dividend = 35.35c • Southwestern Energy eps beat & net rose 18% on production boost - raises outlook (trading up small) • WTW eps topped estimates & narrowed view with p&I better, vol slight beat (trading +10%) • U.K. services unexpectedly strengthened in April as new business rose (recovery gaining momentum) • BNP Q1 net income beats, retail good, op expenses dropping, cost controls better, good solvency (trading +1.3%) • Belgacom O1 revs, adj EBITDA in line, net slight ahead, underlying weak, FCF miss, mobile adds weak (trading +1.8%) • Air France O1 adj net loss better, revs & net debt in line, maintains 2013 outlook (trading -4.3%) • Sky Deutschland O1 EBITDA beats, revs increase, 'great start" to year, confirms outlook (trading +7.5%) • Adidas O1 net beats, op profit better, sales inline, confirms FY outlook (trading +6.4%) • Telefonica Deutschland O1 sales in line, strengthening converged capabilities (trading +3.5%) • Havas O1 organic growth misses, cautious tone, no guidance given (trading -0.8%) • Vallourec O1 net in line, EBITDA solid, sees improvement across the board in 2013 (trading +10.6%) • Veolia Q1 in line, confirms FY guidance, raising 2015 cost reduction targets (trading +0.6%) • Direct Line Q1 op profit light, gross premiums weak on "competitive market conditions" (trading - 2%) • Phoenix O1 IMS good, on track to meet all financial targets, strong cash generation (trading +1%) • GN Store Nord Q1 net and sales ahead, maintains FY outlook and org rev growth (trading +3.8%) • RBS O1 net profit beats, revs miss, costs slightly higher, provisions lower, low expectations (trading -5.8%) • Smurfit Kappa Q1 sales, revs, net debt rise, improving corrugated demand (trading +5.4%) • Man Group Qloutflows worse, cautious outlook, may use surplus for div, buyback, acquisitions (trading +8.7%) • Continental Q1 EBIT light, revs in line, reiterates 2013 sales growth target (trading +2.5%) EFTA_R1_00794148 EFTA02140418 Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +1.83%, Autos/Parts +0.72%, Fin Services +0.44% Lagging European Sectors: Real Estate -1.07%, Healthcare -0.71%, Food/Bev -0.49% SKUL sales drop — ZAGG cut yr view (trading -25%) — GUID lowered outlook THOR revs missed — NCMI mixed — HAIN acquires Ellas Kitchen grp MHK sees eps above — CBI reaffirms — MTD boosts forecast BRKR cuts forecast — SMTC $400M credit agreement — FBHS beats & raises FLT raises y reps view — NSR $250M buyback — ATHN eps beat NILE sales up 17% — TPX adj eps above — ONNN mixed Vs AGNC declares div — TDC earnings light — DNB eps & revs miss Notable Options Activity Yesterday: PWE ($9.31 +2.7%) late in the session 5000 June $9 puts were bought for $0.425 to open. The trade could either be a hedge for long stock or an outright short, b it is noteworthy that the trade came after the company had its earnings release Thursday morning. ABBY ($43.99 -3.4%) the August $40 put - $47.50 call risk reversal (customer sold put/bot call) traded 14,500x for a $0.25 debit. The spread traded tied to a purchase of 673,00 shares and were possibly a stock replacement. Secondaries (announced/priced): LTC, TSYS (convert), CETV IPO's (filed/priced): Colony American Homes (1564515) files $100M IPO through CS, MS, and BofA M/L US Key Research: EFTA_R1_00794149 EFTA02140419 • Barcap downgrades SBH, Canaccord downgrades AVEO, Jefferies upgrades RDC (buy) GS adds ALL to Conviction Buy list & initiates SBGL (sell) & downgrades BAA/LSTR (sells) • KBW downgrades VRSK, Mizuho upgrades BRKR (buy), Roth downgrades ZAGG/DCTH UBS initiates CBST (buy), Wells downgrades CJES, Evercore downgrades NLY • JPM upgrades BZH, BMO downgrades RDEN, CS upgrades MMP & cuts VLO, Roth cuts ZAGG Europe Key Research: JP upgrade ANDR AV, VK FP, Citi downgrade SBRY LN, DBK downgrade BOSS GY, IMG LN CS downgrade ARCLK TI, upgrade VK FP, MS upgrade SOL SJ, Natixis upgrade VK FP • GS remove OR FP cony buy list, downgrade ABG LN, ANG SJ, Sabadell downgrade SAN FP UBS double upgrade TKA GY, upgrade APR LN, SAND SS, DNB downgrade ELUXB BB • HSBC upgrade IFX GY, downgrade DSV DC, SocGen initiate SW FP (h), CPG LN (b) • Bere downgrade DRI GY, FNTN LN, upgrade ANDR AV, Exane d/g TEN IM, upgrade VK FP • Cana upgrade IDH LN, MAQ initiate ZIGGO NA (op) Reporting Pre-Open: ADP, DUK, HST, MCO, NWL, PNW, POM, REGN, SE, WPO, ABR, ASCA, AXL, BEEP, BPL, CBM, CBOE, COWN, DW, FBN, FBP, FRM, GBDC, GTXI, HNR, ICFI, IEP, JOUT, KOP, KVHI, LMOS, LNT, LRN, MSG, NCT, NFP, NGLS, NRF, NVE, PNW, PPC, RUTH, SEP, SHEN, SMP, SUP, TDS, TREX, TRGP, UFPT, UPI, UPL, USM, WCG, XLS, YRCW, ZEUS Reporting Post-Close: IN, MTGE, SJI Economic Data: April Employment Report © 8:30am, Factory Orders / ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite @ 10am Fed Speakers: Tarullo @ 12:30pm (DC), Lacker 12:45pm (VA) Conferences: No major conferences EFTA_R1_00794150 EFTA02140420 Analyst/Investor Days: BX, PBI Non-Deal Roadshows: ACAD, BCLI, EBSB, ECL, EDU, HF, NBIX, OXM, PRAA, SGI, STML, STX, WUS Shareholder Meetings: SNY, AOL, FELE, AA, D, STC, BCO, CDR, LPX, ROG, ZEUS, AKRX, B, CBB, ETR, MAG, R, TFX, PPC, TTI, UNS, RSE, OXY, HCOM, CONS, ITW Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ANV Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barton's positive: Allergan (AGN) Barron's • Osborne allies ready to sell bank stakes before general election FT • Apple avoids potential $9bn tax bill FT • Irish president urges ECB reform or risk social upheaval FT • Fed willing to increase QE3 in new shift FT • Google gives Lending Clubs hand FT • Regulator acts to head off interest-only mortgage crisis FT • Orders for UK exports rise to highest level in 18 months FT • Tories brace themselves for poll losses to Ukip FT • N Korea sentences US citizen to 15 years hard labour FT • Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem FT Opinion • Facebook: with friends like these Lex • MasterCard: spend, spend, spend Lex • Daiwa / Nomura: riding the rally Lex EFTA_R1_00794151 EFTA02140421 • ExxonMobil: price of premium Lex • Novo Nordisk/Lundbeck: drugs start working Lex • EDF: power to the people Lex • Act now to stop debt timebomb, interest-only homeowners told The Times • The recession that never was: figures suggest no double dip The Times • Pension fund lifeboat faces £543m blow after pit blaze The Times • No sign of light in the long eurozone tunnel The Times Opinion • The free market isn't a licence to con people The Times Opinion • Fed Presses Ahead With Bond Buys as Inflation Slows WSJ • U.S. Sees Arming Syria Rebels as Less Risky WSJ • Marco Rubio: The Immigration Reform Opportunity WSJ Opinion • Clubby London Trading Scene Fostered Libor Rate-Fixing Scandal WSJ • Shell CEO Peter Voser to Retire WSJ • Gauge Shows Further Signs of Weakness in China WSJ • Japan's Nuclear Plan Unsettles U.S. WSJ • Pentagon Expects to Enlist Apple, Samsung Devices WSJ • China: A Billion Strong but Short on Workers WSJ • 'Borrowers must not bury their heads in the sand': Thousands with interest-only mortgages could lose their homes Independent • Weak US economy prompts Fed to stick with stimulus plan Independent • UK Coal talks to creditors in bid to save 2,000 jobs Independent • Ben Chu: The dumb money is still flowing into hedge funds — and it belongs to you Independent Comment • Barclays back in the spotlight over £30m payout in 2008 rescue deal Independent Comment • David Cameron to take on the 'Ukip fruitcakes' with EU referendum Telegraph • Boston bombers friends charged with obstructing justice Telegraph • Debt-crippled Holland falls victim to EMU blunders as property slump deepens Telegraph • For £200,000 you could own a part of the Empire State Building Telegraph EFTA_R1_00794152 EFTA02140422 • Voters should learn the lesson of history and back a Tory Telegraph Comment • The economics of enough Guardian • Whatever you think of fracking, this isn't the way forward Guardian Comment Key Events Next Week Monday: London Closed for holiday, Japan closed, European services and composite April, Euro retail sales, Draghi speaks, PMIs Earnings (SYY, TSN, APC, EOG, FSLR, FTR, VNO) Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings, SALT conference in Las Vegas (link), Bofa Smid Cap Conference (Boston), Jefferies TMT Conference (NYC), Baird Growth Stock Conference (Chicago), RBA rate decision, Obama & SKorea's Park meets at White House, Earnings (DISCA, DTV, EMR, FE, FOSL, HCN, HSIC, NRG, TAP, BMC, DIS, LIFE, MDLZ, MRO, TRIP, WFM) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, China PPI & CPI, Ira Sohn Conference NYC (link), Wells Industrial & Construction Conference (NYC), D.A. Davidson Financial Services Conference (Seattle, WA), Earnings (CTSH, LINTA, ATVI, CTL, MNST, NWSA, EXPD) Thursday: Wholesale Inventories, Retail Sales, BOE rate decision, Earnings (AES, APA, CVC, DF, PCP, WIN, XRAY, CFN, NVDA) Friday: Treasury Budget Statement, G8 Fin Min / central bank meeting (UK), Bernanke speaks at Chicago Fed conference, Earnings (BECN, TRLG, ADEP) Key Events on the Horizon May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy June 10-14 — Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) in SF June 14 — Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST EFTA_R1_00794153 EFTA02140423 June 21 — Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close of trading July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA_R1_00794154 EFTA02140424