EFTA02141150

From: Ike Groff Sent Mon 4/22/2013 9:50:35 AM Subject Early Tour 4.22.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 25-115 bps (Italy +2.0%) ASX +0.70%, NKY +1.89%, KOSPI +1.03%, TWSE +0.50%, SHCOMP -0.11%, HSI +0.36% EUR 1.3049 (-0.02%) JPY 99.81 (-0.29%) EUR/JPY 130.22 (+0.26%) AUD 1.0263 (-0.13%) US 10yr 1.73% Futures: Dow +70, Nasdaq +20, S&P +8 DXY 82.78 (+6c) Crude $88.38 (+37c) Gold $1423.80 (+$28.20) Silver +1.8% Copper -0.77% Japan led the AsiaPac region once again as the JPY continues to flirt with 100 after the G20 gave its tacit approval to Kuroda's policy over the weekend. M&A was in focus after the Nikkei reported that Kawasaki Heavy (-0.9%) and Mitsui Engineering (+13%) are in merger talks — construction (+5%) best TOPIX sub-sector. China diverged as PRC insurance names weighed following Saturday's 6.6 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan, which killed more than 180 and wounded more than 10k. Hong Kong is faring a bit better than the mainland with notable strength in autos as the Shanghai Auto Show kicked off. Macau names arc also trading better following a positive sector note from CLSA ahead of results. South Korea spiked to close at the highs on talk of government related program buying. DB was out with a bullish report forecasting a year-end KOSPI target of 2,150, implying 13% upside: "Although Korea has underperformed in 2013 and has battled weak sentiment, we believe market conditions will improve as the Park Administration settles in." Tonight we will get the China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for April with estimates at 51.5 vs. 51.6 in March. European markets also higher after Italy's parliament re-elected 87yr old President Giorgio Napolitano to serve an unprecedented second term in an effort to resolve the political stalemate since the Feb elections. Periphery spreads tightening this morning with Italy 10yr -12bps to 4.11% & Spain 10yr -7bps to 4.55%. Italian Banks leading the EMU Bank Index higher (SX7E +2.2%). Gold lifting back +$28.20 to $1423.80. CAT #'s due out pre-open in the US. SPA's +8 handles = 1556.30 last. ***Chicago Fed @ 8:30am, Existing Home Sales @ 10am*** *"CAT,HAL.HAS pm-open / ACE,AMP.NFLX,TXN after close*** ***HSBC China Flash PMI tonight @ 9:45pm (Europe & US tomorrow)~' EFTA_R1_00795086 EFTA02141150 • Apple could be considering ousting CEO Tom Cook for new leader with greater tech knowledge (Forbes) • Check Point Software O1 eps beat by penny but revenues missed ($322.7M vs $327.9M ests) • ABB to buy Power-One (PWER) for about $1B to add solar inverters (6.35/share = 57% premium) • GlaxoSmithKline may put drink brands Lucozade & Ribena up for sale in next few weeks (El B) The Times) • Ameriprise is the leading bidder for Lloyds' Scottish Widows (SWIP) unit with £800M bid (The Times) • US Senate expected to vote as soon as this week on bill allowing states to require intemet sales tax (WSJ) • Mobistar O1 revs/net better, EBITDA slight ahead, capex light, FCF in line, raising savings goal (trading +0.70%) • Philips net income inline, EBITDA light, slow H1 driven by Europe/US, committed to 2013 targets (trading -3.3%) • Hermes Q1 revs inline, Asia strong, focus on "sporting theme", watches weak driven by China (trading +1.1%) • Suez Environment O1 EBITDA & revs inline, Europe underperforms on decline in production (trading +1.0%) • Delhaize preliminary Qlrevs inline, underlying EBIT better, strong FCF, postpones CMD (trading +11.7%) • Reckitt Benckiser Q1 sales (ex pharma) & organic growth inline, revs ok, maintains guidance (trading +0.08%) • Yara O1 revs light, EBITDA in line, new ammonia vols offset weak fertilizer, poor weather effects (trading -3.4%) • Genel FY IMS, output maintained, revenue forecast kept at $300-400mn, Kurdistan progress (trading +1.6%) • Informa Q1 trading "broadly" inline, effected by early Easter, sees stronger growth in H2 (trading +2.2%) • Betfair board rejects CVC 880p/shr proposal on valuation, confident of strategy & growth (trading +4.4%) • Peugeot increases Chinese sales by 31% in 41, raising FY13 targets for region (trading unch) • BMW cautious comments on China, targeting "upper single digit" sales growth in China for FY13 (trading +1.3%) • German financial regulator BaFin proposes that German REITs be regulated as investment funds (FT) EFTA_R1_00795087 EFTA02141151 • Elan's board unanimously rejects Royalty Pharma's unsolicited tender offer (undervalues company) • UK's sovereign rating cut by Fitch from AAA to AA+ Friday after the close on weak growth prospects • Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem says most EU bank union work can be done without law change (Reuters) • Chow Tai Fook sees strong demand for gold products (restocking gold products at shops frequently) • China Mobile reports O1 net 27.9 billion yuan vs est 28 billion yuan (#'s came out after the close today) Leading European Sectors: Banks +2.09%, Insurance +1.56%, Fin Services +1.34% Lagging European Sectors: Tech -0.07%, Food/Bev +0.18%, Chemicals +0.21% RNO increases credit agreement — CELG amends credit agreement — SCCO cfo resigns Secondaries (announced/priced): IPO's: Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS TI) priced at 18.40 TRY (begins trading April 26) IPO's (lock-up expires): Lehigh Gas Partners (LGP), Monroe Capital (MRCC) US Key Research: e Barcap initiates TRW (ow) & ALV (ew) & HAR (ew) & upgrades HES, BMO cuts AAPL pt r Evercore downgrades COR & initiates ANSS/ADSK (ew's) & PMTC (ow), KBW upgrades MIG • WallachBeth initiates MAKO (hold), BB&T upgrades CIR/SKX (buy's), JPM cuts GE & upgrades PRGO CLSA downgrades MCD, DB downgrades NEM, RBC upgrades HXL, Baird upgrades JCI Europe Key Research: EFTA_R1_00795088 EFTA02141152 • UBS downgrade CHAR LN, add NTC SJ, AIP SJ to most pref, JPM downgrade RGU LN, upgrade PRGO TI • DB downgrade STB NO, upgrade FUM1V FH, SU FP, initiate SUBC NO (h), AKSO NO (b), Rabo upgrade DELB BB • CS upgrade ITX SM, KAZ LN, KN FP, Barc upgrade G IM, MS upgrade AC FP, resume SBMO NA (ew) • HSBC initiate DNB NO (ow), DANSKE DC (ow), SWEDA SS (n), SEBA SS (uw), u/g BLT LN, ASHM LN, NDA GY, NYR BB • HSBC downgrade TRNFP RM, add RIO LN to super 10 portfolio - remove LG FP, GS upgrade BNS IM • Chev upgrade WRT1V FR, BofAML upgrade TEL2B SS, Equita downgrade PRY IM, Exane upgrade NOEJ GY, KAZ LN • Medio downgrade SFL IM, RBS upgrade EAD FP, Nordea upgrade ELI1V FH, NOD SS, Pareto downgrade LEM1S FH • SEB upgrade HPOLB SS, BMAX SS, RATOB SS, Davy downgrade PWL ID, Numis downgrade BRK LN ▪ ABN upgrade NUO NA, Espirito upgrade TCELL TI, RIO LN, Handelsbanken downgrade SYDB DC, Peel d/g BRK LN Reporting Pre-Open: CAT, CHKP, HAL, HAS, ASUR, BEAV, BMRC, BOH, CCBG, HLX, LII, NVR, SILC, SIX, TNC, WASH Reporting Post-Close: ACE, AMP, NFLX, TXN, ZION, BANR, BBCN, BXS, XR, CTGX, DEL, EGBN, ELS, FDEF, FIBK, HSTM, HXL, IBCP, ICUI, IEX, ILMN, MBFI, MSFG, NXPI, PBNY, PEI, PKG, PLXT, RCII, SANM, STM, SWFT, TRST, UCTTT, USTR, VLTR, WIBC, WWD, XOOM Economic Data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index @ 8:30am, Existing Home Sales @ 10am Fed Speakers: Dudley © 8:30am (NY) Conferences: No major events Analyst/Investor Days: CYS EFTA_R1_00795089 EFTA02141153 Non-Deal Roadshows: ALNY, OGE, PBY, TROV, MDT Shareholder Meetings: CBNJ, CCG, CR, GPC, HON, MWV, DSTI, EDU Equity/Mixed Shelfs: XTEX ($250M), KNDI ($60M) Other Newspaper Articles 8 Stories Barron's cover: Barron's Big Money poll Barron's Barron's positive: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Goldcorp (GG) Barron's Chiquita Brands International Barron's • "Poison" Apple's dimming luster riles suppliers, investors Sydney Morning Herald • Luis Suarez's Liverpool future in doubt despite apology for "bite" attack Guardian • Data shift to lift US economy 3% FT • Banks put damper on Osborne lending hopes FT • Sell-offs eyed to help cut public debt FT • Regulator puts Reits into turmoil FT • Research supports global warming theory FT • US 'slow' to tackle homegrown jihadism FT • Banks pull back from risky regions FT • Business warns about Italian impasse FT • US urges Erdogan to delay trip to Gaza FT • Vale: the shipping orecast Lex • EU investment banks: trending down Lex • Four men with four plans for growth ... Cabinet Secretary reveals tension at top The Times • India has a bumpy road ahead, warns Rahul Bajaj The Times EFTA_R1_00795090 EFTA02141154 • Europe is no longer working for many British businesses The Times (Opinion) • Americans ready £800m Lloyds raid The Sunday Times • Europe Officials Expect Slow Growth WSJ • Italy Seeks to End Paralysis WSJ • North Korea Sets Condition on Talks WSJ • Luxury Car Makers Brace for Slower China Sales WSJ • FBI Raid, Fraud Allegations Rock the Trucking Industry WSJ • Double whammy of bad news wings its way to the Chancellor Independent • Fracking 'unlikely to give UK cheap gas', report says Independent • Dividends fall but are set for rebound Independent • Hamish McRae: What hope if Germany is floundering? Independent (Opinion) • Business week in review Independent (Review) • High euro is crippling growth, says Oleg Deripaska Telegraph • Focus on tax ignores Google's role in creating UK jobs, says chairman Eric Schmidt Telegraph • Boston marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsamaev "awake and responding" Telegraph • The IMF's fiddling achieves nothing Telegraph Key Events This Week Tuesday: AAPL reporting after the close, US & European Flash PMI's, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed, Earnings (AAPL, COH, DD, FRX, IR, LMT, XRX, WAT, JNPR, O1, RHI, YUM) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods, Earnings (BA, ATI, DPS, GD, LO, MSI, S, WM, AFL, CLF, FFIV, QCOM, SYMM, XLNX) Thursday: Jobless Claims, Kansas City Fed, Earnings (ABC, BIIB, BMY, CL_ HOG, HSY, MMM, LUV, RTN, SWY, TWC, UPS, BIDU, CB, SBUX, VRSN) EFTA_R1_00795091 EFTA02141155 Friday: GDP, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Earnings (ABBV, CVX, VFC, TYC, WY) Key Events on the Horizon May 1 — FOMC rate announcement May 2 — ECB rate announcement May7-10 — SALT conference in Las Vegas (link) May 8 — Ira Sohn Conference NYC (link) May 9 — BOE rate announcement May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff EFTA_R1_00795092 EFTA02141156 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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