EFTA02148758

From: Ike Groff Sent Tue 2/12/2013 10:58:55 AM Subject Early Tour 2.12.13 Good Morning European Markets +0-40 bps (Spain +0.77%) ASX -0.01%, NKY +1.94%, KOSPI - 0.26% EUR 1.3403 (-0.03%) JPY 94.29 (+0.04%) CAD 1.0084 (-0.34%) GBP 1.5586 (-0.47%) AUD 1.0237 (-0.18%) Spain 10yr 5.34% Italy 10yr 4.55% US 10yr 1.96% Copper -0.26% Silver -0.68% Futures. Dow +1, Nasdaq +1, S&P unch DXY $80.43 (+12c) Crude $96.82 (-20c) Gold $1642.10 (-$7.00) With most markets still closed for the Lunar New Year, Japan was the big focus overnight. JPY's recent high of 94.45 had the NKY225 gap +2% at the open and stay there for the session. Japan's Econ Minister called for the NKY to reach 13k by March and PM Shinzo Abe said that he expects to announce the new candidates for the BOJ by the end of Feb. The other big story was news that North Korea conducted a third nuclear test and the KOSPI reversed earlier gains to close -0.26%. European markets opened mixed in quiet trading but now +0-40bps and on highs of day (last leg higher in DAX driven by futures buying on DJ headline citing Fitch suggesting German banks may limit trading rather than split up). GBP noticeably weak -0.47% and below 1.56 level. G7 released a currency statement about an hour ago reaffirming commitment to market determined fic rates. Merrill's February Fund Manager Survey is out (some key highlights: sentiment remains optimistic, HF net exposure falls from multi-year high 45% to 38%, notes sector rotation into pharma/staples out of energy/materials/tech, positioning in banks & consumer discretionary at multi-year highs, cash levels remain at 3.8% still slightly above 3.5% contrarian "sell" signal). Note that total volume yesterday in the US of 4.9 billion shares was the lightest day of the year. Apple CEO Tim Cook will deliver the keynote at the Goldman Sachs Tech & Internet conference in SF @ 10: I5am EST (webcast) and will then travel to Washington DC to sit with Michelle Obama for the President's State of the Union Address. Obama is likely to touch on many of the issues/themes laid out in his inaugural address, but the focus will be on jobs and the economy. Marco Rubio will give the GOP response afterwards. SPA's flat = 1512.90 last. - NFIB Small Business Optimism @ 7:30am, Budget Statement @ 2pmn* EFTA_R1_00808315 EFTA02148758 neAVP, FIS, KO, MI-IP, MMC, OMC, RAI, KORS, LVLT earnings pre-open*** ***CLF, FTI, WU, BWLD, CLWR, NILE, RAX Ws post close*" "traghi meeting with Rajoy later today*" • Masco beat on increased NAmerica demand (sales/op profits improved across board) (trading +8%) • LionsGate beat estimates on improved international & final 'Twighlight' sales (trading +1.5%) • Dun & Bradstreet eps/revs missed on weak 2012 NAmerica biz (boost div profit view light) (trading - 4%) • Finmeccanica CEO Orsi arrested over Indian Govemment helicopter bribery probe (trading -8.2%) • France Telecom trades off as TPSA of Poland Q4 misses (FTE owns 49.8%) (trading -1.6%) • Barclays O4 below on higher impairments and costs, 3700 job cuts, BarCap solid (trading +3.9%) • Michelin O4 volumes miss, FCF strong, stable outlook, pricing ongoing concern (trading -3.6%) • L'Oreal 112 EPS beats, EBIT inline, solid guidance, Eur500mn buyback H1, +ve FX (trading +4.1%) • Thyssen Q1 sales light, EBIT better, strong order intake, maintaining guidance (trading -0.65%) • Hermes good Q4, sales better, raising margin guidance, Asia stable (trading +0.40%) • Rexel O4 sales inline, net okay, raising div, economic uncertainty remains 2013 (trading +4.3%) • Norsk Hydro good O4, EBIT strong, lower costs, aluminium beats, energy misses (trading +1.9%) • Cargotec O4 sales ahead, op profit below, dividend below, tweaking guidance lighter (trading +3.6%) • Polarcus: good O4 driven by sales, EBIT inline, backlog light, comfortable with guidance (trading - 2.3%) • Telenet FY inline across the board, div ahead, maintaining guidance, small buyback (trading +4.8%) • Cermaq O4 sales ahead, EBIT misses on Chilean write downs, maintains guidance (trading - 0.30%) • Hexagon O4 inline across the board, 28c dividend slight better, organic sales light (trading +2.1%) • Mondi trading update, EPS slight better, operating guidance inline, FY due 211' Feb (Trading - 0.05%) • Faurecia FY inline, focus on cost controls, cancels dividend (pre released 01/16) (trading -0.07%) • TomTom O4 mixed, revs inline, EBIT net profit better, guidance light (trading -7.8%) EFTA_R1_00808316 EFTA02148759 • Glencore overall inline, Xstrata production beats driven by copper & zinc (trading -0.80%) • Yara O4 sales good, EBITDA okay, considers buyback, strong run into Ws (trading +0.40%) • Fraport traffic stats miss due to adverse weather & decline in bargain flights (trading -0.20%) • JM Q4 sales inline, EBIT miss due to SEK95mn one off, start ups ahead (trading +4.8%) • FLSmidth O4 misses, sales & margins inline, orders & dividend light (trading -0.50%) • Volex Q3 IMS okay, EPS hit on higher tax rate, sees tough market conditions (trading -2.3%) • Ansaldo FY EBIT inline, margin recovery taking longer than exp, good run into Ws (trading -3.1%) • UK January inflation remains 2.7% as price pressures mount (inline with estimates) • Italy sells E8.5B bills in 12-month bills (avg yield 1.094% vs previous 0.864%, btc 1.38x vs 1.79x) • Spain sells €5.57B of 6-12 month bills vs max €5.58 (12mo yield 1.548% vs 1.472% on Jan 15) • India Dec industrial production unexpectedly drops as growth ebbs (-0.6% y/y vs est +1.0%) • North Korea tests 3fd nuclear device in defiance of UN (US calls it a "highly provocative act") Leading European Sectors: Tech +0.46%, Banks +0.33%, Retail +0.20% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -1.15%, Basic Res -1.13%, Telco -0.54% MNKD loss worse than ests — TWTC eps light — NTI cuts dividend NCLH earnings better — GY Ws up y/y — ASEI to cut jobs CNO eps/revs topped — RICK net grew — VMW acquires Virsto BNNY penny better — RXN hires Goldman — NTRI cfo to leave CRK to restate 2012 — AMSC revs lower — BKD revs beat Notable Options Activity Yesterday: FE ($40.25 +0.1%) strangle activity in the Feb 38 puts which were purchases 4490x for $0.05. Open interest was just 191 coming into the day, so the trades were to open. EFTA_R1_00808317 EFTA02148760 AGNC ($32.34 +0.6%) With the stock up 3% on Friday following earnings, someone is not a believer. 5000 Feb 32 puts were bought for $0.12. MBI ($10.48 +2.8%) Heavy near-term call volume, with a total of 15,000 calls on the tape Monday compared to an average daily volume of 5,000. The most actives were the Feb 11s and March 12s. Secondaries (announced/priced): NCT, HCA (holders), MTGE, ORIG, KOS (holders), PRI (Warburg), TMH IPO's (filed/priced): ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) 1.6M-shares priced at $28, Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals (TTPH) files for $86.25M through Barclays and BMO US Key Research: • Bernstein downgrades FB, Avondale upgrades NWY, Multiple brokers initiate CONE & resume CBB • Barcap reinstates CHK/DD/PPG (ew's) & assumes IDCC (ew) & initiates LGCY (ow) • Evercore upgrades DLR/ARE & downgrades OFC, GS cuts BYD, Baird initiates IDIX (neut) & THRX (op) MS initiates CONE (buy), Raja initiates MANU (op), RBC upgrades BXP & cuts GGP/PDM, Mizuho upgrades WAG % Wedbush initiates NKE (neut), JPM downgrades QCOM, UBS downgrades STR & upgrades RGLD (buy) • Bofa upgrades SPH (buy), Brean Murray upgrades NTAP (buy), BMO downgrades NBL, Bernstein upgrades SJM Europe Key Research: • UBS Euro Beverages (downgrade HEIA NA, CPR IM, upgrade RI FP) downgrade SVAV RU, GCC ID • JPM downgrade ULE LN, remove SAN FP from focus list, initiate EAD FP (ow) % Citi double upgrade ELUXB SS, GFI SJ, GS downgrade CGL LN, Nomura upgrade FUM1V FH, NOVOB DC EFTA_R1_00808318 EFTA02148761 MS cut European food Industry to in line, downgrade BN FP, Investec double upgrade FDSA LN HSBC upgrade AH NA, downgrade PAL AV, REL LN, INF LN, initiate AGS BB (ow), DL NA (n) • BofAML remove DANSKE DC, UBI IM most pref, BKT IM, DBK GY added, upgrade ENG SM, EDCL RU • Bere reinitiate large cap insurance: (ALV GY (b), CS FP (h), ZURN VX (h)) downgrade VMED LN • Exane downgrade SDRL NO, upgrade SUBC NO, initiate WG/ LN (op), PFC LN (n), AMEC LN (up) Equita downgrade STS IM, HAV FP, SocGen downgrade NN PW, RBC upgrade NDA SS • CBK upgrade KU2 GY, Swedbanlk downgrade HUSQB SS, Banca IMI downgrade ENI IM • Numsi downgrade IAP LN, Danske upgrade LUPE SS, ABN initiate AGS BB (b) Reporting Pre-Open: AVP, FIS, FOSL, GT, HCP, KO, MHP, MMC, OMC, RAI, AB, ANC, AMRI, CPLA, CYNO, DBD, ELGS, HERO, HUN, KORS, KVHI, LNCE, LVLT, MIICF, MLM, MOC, NNA, NTWK, OHI, RFP, RHP, SPAR, SPR, TGH, TRP, VAL, VNDA, VPG, ZBRA Reporting Post-Close: CLF, FTI, WU, ACC, AXLL, BBSI, BIOD, BWLD. CLWR, CSOD, DDR, DEI, EGP, ELON, FLDM, FRT, GIVN, GWAY, GWR, HIW, HTS, ISOP, KOOL, LPSN, MIG, MOVE, NILE, NRCI, NTGR, ONE, PRCP, PRO, PZN, ADEL, RATE, RAX, RLOC, RPT, RPXC, RUSHA, SAPE, SCI, SGEN, SKT, THRX, TIGR, TXCC, VMI, WSH Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Optimism © 7:30am, JOLTs Job Openings © 10am, Treasury's Monthly Budget Statement @ 2pm Treasury auction in 3yr notes © 1pm ($32B), API crude oil inventories © 4:30pm Fed Speakers: George @ 11:30am (Omaha, NE), Lockhart © 1:30pm (Madrid), Plosser @ 7:30pm (Palo Alto, CA), Lacker @ 7:30pm (Penn) Conferences: PacCrest Emerging Technology Summit (SF), Steme Agee Financial Institutions Investor (Miami), GS Technology & Internet (SF) Analyst/Investor Days: FIS, LF, BSX EFTA_R1_00808319 EFTA02148762 Non-Deal Roadshows: ACO, ADM, APH, BLL, BNNY, CEMI, CODE, GILD, GSM, HAIN, I-IF, HNI, KEYN, KKR, LIFE, MAT, OSIS, PACE, PPHM, SPSC, STO, SWIR, TCRD, UTL, VOXX, XXIA, AJG Shareholder Meetings: KBW, MSCC, FICO, FRNK, MSPD Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Apple (AAPL) Barron's • Banks Make Smartphone Connection WSJ • Pyongyang Tests Nuclear Device WSJ • RBS Notes Control Failings WSJ • Libor scrutiny turns to middlemen WSJ • EU approve Paugeot guarantee plan WSJ • Shell's plans for Arctic drilling in doubt WSJ • No Extreme makeover at Barclays WSJ • Judge Clears Hostess to Sell Twinkie, Other Brands WSJ • The Pitfalls Ahead for Stocks WSJ Heard on the Street • BlackRock sold E315m in Saipem shares FT • How the Union's State got so 'Strong' NYT • US Treasury triggers fall in yen FT • Hollande cracks down on horsemeat scandal FT • Portuguese exports surge outside Europe FT • Productivity is Europe's ultimate problem FT EFTA_R1_00808320 EFTA02148763 • Overblown Cyprus discovers painful truths FT • Ultra-long bonds: benefits of maturity Lex • Novo Nordisk: reality check Lex • Ahold's dilemma Lex • Ryanair/Aer Lingus: crunch time Lex • A rare sighting of good news in Europe FT • No such thing as a global currency war FT • There'll be no bail-in in bailout, says Cyprus The Times • No one understands what's going on in our economy Telegraph • Euro finance heads split over exchange rate controls Telegraph • Greece iS facing a humanitarian crisis Guardian • Struggling Cyprus set to receive bailout by March Independent • New Barclays plans to lull investors back to sleep Independent • Galloping into controversy over Findus Independent Key Events This Week Wednesday: Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Business Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications, Eurozone IP, BOE releases Quarterly Inflation Report, Bofa Insurance Conference (NYC), Leerink Swann Global Healthcare Conference (NYC), Earnings (CMCSA, DE, DPS, DUK, LO, AMAT, CSCO, MDLZ, WFM) Thursday: G20 Fin Min/CB meeting (Feb 14-15), BMO Auto Finance Conference (Toronto), Earnings (APA, BWA, DISCA, GM, PEP, TAP, WM) Friday: Empire Manufacturing, US IP, Michigan Consumer Confidence, TIC Flows, Earnings (AEP, CPB, SJM, VFC, WBC) Key Events on the Horizon EFTA_R1_00808321 EFTA02148764 February 19/20/21/22 — CAGNY Conference in Boca Raton (Consumer Staples) February 24/25 — Italian elections February 27 — First repayment for LTRO2 March 1 — Automatic spending cuts of sequestration set to begin ($1.2 trillion over 10 years. 50% from defense) March 7 — Fed to release stress test results for big banks March 14 — Fed to release decisions on proposed capital plans of banks March 19 — BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa stepping down (successor likely to be named by end of Feb) April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 19 — US debt ceiling limit July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd 'Stamford, CT 06901 1 91 (203) 302-7300 1 ikeffdtou rmalinellc.com EFTA_R1_00808322 EFTA02148765 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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