US. Department of Justice

US. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics October 2021, NO 301775 Criminal Victimization, 2020 Rachel E. Morgan, Ph.D., and Alexandra Thompson, BIS Statisticians F rom 2019 to 2020, the total violent victimization rate declined 22%, from 21.0 to 16.4 victimization per 1,000 persons age 12 or older (figure 1). Violent victimization indudes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Based on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), the decrease in violent victimization was driven primarily by a decline in assault. The rate of simple assault declined from 13.7 per 1,000 in 2019 to 10.7 per 1,000 in 2020, and the rate of aggravated assault declined from 3.7 to 2.9 per 1,000. The decline in aggravated assault drove the decrease in violent crime, excluding simple assault, from 2019 (7.3 per 1,000) to 2020 (5.6 per 1,000). The rates of rape or sexual assault or robbery did not change between 2019 and 2020. FIGURE 1 Rate of victimization, by type of crime, 2019-2020 Indent crime' I-. I Property orlmeb Rape/sexual assault E. Burglary Robbery H Trespassing Aggravated assault REIF; Simple assault t 2019 Motor vehicle theft Violent crime excluding simple assault al 2020* Other theft 0 5 10 15 20 25 Rate per 1.000 persons age 12 or older Note: See appendix table 1 (or estimates and standard errors. 'Comparison year. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 95%confidence level. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 90%confidence level. aSee table I footnote for violent crime definition. bSee table 2 footnote (or property crime definition. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. f. 2019 ■ 2020' 20 40 60 80 100 120 Rate per 1.000 households HIGHLIGHTS • The violent victimization rate declined from 21.0 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2019 to 16.4 per 1,000 in 2020. • The number of violent crimes, excluding simple assault, fell from 2.0 million in 2019 to 1.6 million in 2020. • The number of burglary and trespassing victimizations declined from 2019 (2.2 million) to 2020 (1.7 million). • About 40% of violent victimizations and 3396 of property victimizations were reported to police in 2020. • A smaller share of intimate partner victimizations were reported to police in 2020 (41%) than in 2019 (58%). • The rate of violent victimization against persons ages 12 to 17 declined 51% from 2019 to 2020. • From 2019 to 2020, the rates of violent and property victimization fell in suburban areas but did not change in urban and rural areas. • The number of firearm victimizations declined from 2019 (481,950) to 2020 (350,460). 1 3502-024 Page 1 of 22 EFTA_00001611 EFTA00156952 The rate of property crime victimization declined for the second year in a row, from 101.4 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2019 to 94.5 per 1,000 in 2020. Property crime includes burglary, residential trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft. Decreases in the rates of burglary and trespassing drove the overall reduction in the property crime rate from 2019 to 2020. Burglary declined 19% (11.7 to 9.5 burglaries per 1,000 households) and trespassing declined 24% (5.5 to 4.1 per 1,000). From 2019 to 2020, there were no statistically significant changes in the rates of motor vehicle theft and other household theft. The NCVS is a self-report survey administered annually from January Ito December 31. Annual NCVS estimates are based on the number and characteristics of crimes that respondents experienced during the prior 6 months, excluding the month in which they were interviewed. Therefore, the 2020 survey covers crimes experienced from July 1, 2019 to November 30, 2020, with March 15, 2020 as the middle of the reference period. Crimes are classified by the year of the survey and not by the year of the crime. (See Methodology.) The number of violent victimizations fell 22% from 2019 to 2020 Victimization reflect the total number of times people or households were victimized by crime. In 2020, there were 4.6 million violent victimizations, down from 5.8 million in 2019 (table I). The total number of assaults also declined from 2019 to 2020, driven by a decrease in both aggravated assaults (from 1.0 million victimizations to 812,000) and simple assaults (from 3.8 million victimizations to 3.0 million). Violent victimizations, excluding simple assault, decreased from 2.0 million to 1.6 million. There were no statistically significant changes in the number of victimizations involving rape or sexual assault or involving robbery between 2019 and 2020. TABLE 1 Number and rate of violent victimizations, by type of crime, 2016-2020 2016 Rate per 2017 2018 2019 2020° Rate per Rateper Rate per Rate per Type of violent crime Number 1.000a Number 1,00V Number 1.Ott Number 1,000- Number 1,00r Violent cdrneb 5,353,8201 19.7 5,612,670 t 20.61 6,385,5201 23.2 1 5,8114101 21.0 4,558,150 16.4 Rape/sexual assault' 298,410 1.1 393,980 1.4 734,6301 27 1 459.310 1.7 319,950 1.2 Robbery 458,810 1.7 613,840t 23t 573,100 21 534,420 1.9 437,260 1.6 Assault 4,596.6001 16.91 4,604,850 t 16.91 5,077,7901 18.41 4,819,680t 17.41 1800,950 13.7 Aggravated assault 1,0405801 3.8 t 993,170* 3.6* 1,058,040t 3M 1.019,490* 3.7* 812,180 2.9 Simple assault 3,5560201 13.1 3,611,680t 133t 4,019,7501 14.61 3.800,1901 117t 2.988,770 10.7 Violent crime excluding simple assaults 1.797290 6.6 t 2.000,990 1 731 2,365,7701 8.6 '1 2,013,220t 7.31 1.569,390 5.6 Selected characteristics of violent crime Domestic violencee 1,068.120 3.9 1,237,960 1 4.5 f 1,333,050 t 491 1,164.540* 4.2* 856,750 3.1 Intimate partner violence, 597,200 2.2 666,310# 2.4* 847,2301 11 1 695,060* 2.5* 484830 1.7 Stranger violence 2,082,410 7.7 2,034,100 7.5 2,493,750 9.1 t 2,254,740 8.1 1,973,200 7.1 Note: Details may not sum to totals due to rounding. Categories of violent crime include rape or sexual assault. robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault, and they include threatened, attempted. and completed occurrences of those crimes. See appendix table 2 for standard errors. 'Comparison year. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the %%confidence level. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 90% confidence level. aRate is per 1.000 persons age 12 or older. See appendix table 11 for person populations. bindudes rape or sexual assault. robbery. aggravated assault. and simple assault. Excludes homicide because the National Crime Vidimization Survey 1NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. 'See Methodology for details on the measurement of rape or sexual assault in the NCVS. dlndudes rape or sexual assault robbery. and aggravated assault. alncludes the subset of violent vktimizations that were committed by intimate partners or family members. tlncludes the subset of violent victimizations that were committed by current or former spouses, boyfriends. or girlfriends. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2016-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 2 3502-024 Page 2 of 22 EFIA_00001612 EFTA00156953 The rate of domestic violence (violent victimization that were committed by current or former intimate partners or family members) was 3.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2020, down from 4.2 per 1,000 in 2019. Intimate partner violence (domestic violence victimizations committed by current or former intimate partners only) also declined from 2019 to 2020, from 2.5 to 1.7 per 1,000. There was no statistically significant change in the rate of stranger violence from 2019 to 2020. The Impact of COVID-19 on the National Crime Victimization Survey In a typical year, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is administered from January 1 through December 31 to persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. Selected households remain in the sample for 3.5 years, and eligible persons in these households are interviewed every 6 months, fora total of seven interviews. All new households entering the panel (incoming sample) are interviewed in person (personal visits). Households that have already been interviewed at least once (returning sample) are interviewed either in person or over the phone. Due to increasing risks related to COVID-19, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), in coordination with the U.S. Census Bureau, suspended all incoming sample interviews and shifted all returning sample interviews to telephone calls starting in mid•March 2020 (figure 2). In July 2020, modified personal visits resumed in some geographic areas for returning sample households, based on applicable federal, state, and local guidance at that time. These modifications allowed field representatives (Fits) to leave survey information at respondents' doors and to classify vacant or abandoned properties. Without the FR's visit, these households would have been misclassified as nonrespondents. In October 2020, personal visits resumed for both incoming and returning sample households, under modified procedures and subject to federal, state, and local guidance. Interviews were primarily conducted over the phone through the end of 2020. FIGURE 2 National Crime Victimization Survey field operation procedures, 2020 Normal field operations Suspended Interviews for Incoming sant* Modified personal Jan '20 reb '20 ?Aar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2020. Jun '20 Jul '20 Aug '20 Sept '20 Oct '20 Nov '20 Dec '20 Continued on next page CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 3 3502-024 Page 3 of 22 EFTA_00001613 EFTA00156954 The Impact of COVID-19 on the National Crime Victimization Survey (continued) The household response rate dropped from an average of 71% during 2019 to 63% in May 2020, before rising to 72% in September 20201 (figure 3). Response rates remained steady in the last quarter of 2020, such that the overall unweighted household response rate was 67% in 2020. 2020 weighting adjustments To address the impact of these modified field operations due to COVID-19, BJS, in collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau, examined the 2020 data to determine what adjustments were needed to ensure comparability with past and future years of NCVS data. To inform this process, a series of simulations using 2019 NCVS data were developed to assess differences related to changes in the field operations. As a result of this analysis, several adjustments were applied to the 2020 NCVS data: !From March to October 2020, interviews with incoming sample households were suspended due to modified field operations from COVID-19. These suppressed households were classified as Type A nonresponse and excluded from the response rate calculation. Type A nonresponse households induded interview-eligible sample addresses in which no household member could be interviewed. ■ Weights for the incoming sample in the first and fourth quarters of 2020 were doubled to compensate for the suppressed incoming sample in the second and third quarters. ■ Household weights for the types of group quarters included in the NCVS were controlled to match historical values.2 ■ Household control weights were developed to weight household distributions by sample type. For more information on the 2020 response rates and weighting adjustments, see the Source and Accuracy Statement for the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey in the NCVS 2020 Codebook (https://wwwjcpsnumich. edu/web/NACJD/series/95) and the most recent version of the National Crime Victimization Survey, 2016: Technical Documentation (NCJ 251442, BJS, December 2017). 2Group quarters are "places where people live or stay in a group living arrangement that is owned or managed by an organization providing housing and/or services for the residents (see https://www.census.govinewsroomiblogsfrandom- samplings/2021/03/2020-census-group-quartershtml). They include non-institutional settings such as residence halls. rooming hou.es, and religious group dwellings. FIGURE 3 Monthly household response rates for the National Crime Victimization Survey, 2019-2020 Percent 100 90 SO 70 60 Household response rate SO 40 30 20 10 0 Household response rate (returning sample only) .1 -------- It' 19 tia9r Apr May 1g Aug S19t Oct1 tt; Dec 1 138 Feb )410 10 11 110 Jul 41'0 Sept ' 92c0 Note: See appendix table 3 for estimates. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Oime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. Hoy Dec '20 '20 CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 4 3502-024 Page 4 of 22 EFTA_00001614 EFTA00156955 Burglary and trespassing victimizations decreased from 2019 to 2020 Households in the United States experienced an estimated 12.1 million property victimizations in 2020, down from 12.8 million in 2019 (table 2). During this time, the number of burglaries fell from 1.5 million to 1.2 million. During the 5-year period from 2016 to 2020, the property victimization rate declined 20%, from 118.6 to 94.5 victimizations per 1,000 households. This was primarily driven by decreases in the rates of burglary and trespassing. The burglary rate declined 43%, from 16.5 per 1,000 households in 2016 to 9.5 per 1,000 in 2020. Trespassing declined 42%, from 7.2 to 4.1 per 1,000 during this period. The rate of other household theft also decreased, from 90.3 to 76.6 per 1,000. TABLE 2 Number and rate of property victimization, by type of crime, 2016-2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020' Type of property crime Number atepor 1 R,00P Number 1Ra teper Number atepm 1,00V R ,00 Number 1,00(aer Beeper Number 1,00 Totalb 15,815310 118.6 T 13,340.220 t 108.41 13,502,840 7 108.2 12,818,000 t 101.41 12,085,170 945 Burglary/trespassingc 3,160,450 23.7 T 2,538.170 t 20.6 t 2,639,620 1 21.1 2,178,400 1 1721 1,741,250 13.6 Burglaryd 2,205,180 16.5 T 1,03.890 t 13.7 t 1,867,620 1 15.0 1,484230 1 112 t 1,210,640 93 Trespassing 955,270 7.2t 849,280t 6.9t 772,0007 6.2 693,670 t 55 t 530,610 4.1 Motor vehicle theft 618330 4.6 516,810 4.2 534,010 4.3 495,670 3.9 545,810 43 Other theftf 12.036.530 90.37 10.285.240 83.6t 10.329.210 82.77 10.143930 802 9.798,110 76.6 Note Details may not sum to totals due to rounding. Categories indude threatened. attempted. and completed crimes.The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) household weighting adjustment was updated for 2017 onward which decreased the estimated number of households and the number of households experiencing property crime by about 8%. Asa result. the number of property crimes for 2016 should not be compared to 2017. 2018, 2019. or 2020. Property crime rates are unaffected by this change. See Methodology for more information. See appendix table 4 for standard errors. 'Comparison year. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 95%confidence level. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 90%confidence level. abate is per 1.000 households. See appendix table 12 for household populations. bindudes burglary or trespassing. motor vehicle theft. and other theft. cIncludes unlawful or forcible entry or attempted entry of places. including a permanent residence. other residence (e.g.. a hotel room or vacation residence). or other structure (e.g.. a garage or shed). Includes victimizations where the offender stole. attempted to steal. or did not attempt to steal. Excludes trespassing on land. dIncludes only crimes where the offender committed or attempted a theft. %dudes aimes where the offender did not commit or attempt a theft. Excludes trespassing on land. 'Includes other unlawful taking or attempted unlawful taking of property or cash without personal contact with the victim. Source Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2016-2020. Outlier weights in the National Crime Victimization Survey The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) uses analysis weights to account for differential probabilities of selecting sample members and varying response rates. This helps ensure that estimates produced from the sample are representative of the target population. While efforts are made during the NCVS weighting process to limit the size of weighting adjustment factors, it is still possible for some households or individuals to be assigned a large weight relative to other members of the sample. When these households or persons with large weights also report a large number of victimizations, they can have an undue, or "extreme: influence on victimization estimates and negatively affect the precision of estimates, particularly for rare crime types or small subpopulations. Beginning with the 2020 datafi le, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (315) incorporated an additional factor to moderate the impact of extreme cases on NCVS estimates. After exploring several methods for identifying and adjusting outlier weights, BJS applied a framework that identifies extreme cases, applies an adjustment, and reallocates the excess weight to nonoutlier cases. For more information on this methodology, see the Source and Accuracy Statement for the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey in the NCVS 2020 Codebook (https:// www.icpstumich.edu/web/NACJI3/series/95). For more information on the research BJS conducted to develop this methodology, see National Criminal Victimization Survey:Assessment of Outlier Weights (NCI 302186, BJS, October 2021). CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION. 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 5 3502-024 Page 5 of 22 EFIA_00001615 EFTA00156956 The Uniform Crime Reporting program and National Crime Victimization Survey: A complementary picture of crime in the U.S. For 2019, the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program reported that 3.8 violent crimes per 1,000 persons and 21.1 property crimes per 1,000 persons were known to law enforcement (table 3). Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 3.4 violent crimes, excluding simple assault, per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, and 33.0 property crimes per 1,000 households were reported to law enforcement in 2019. The 2020 NCVS estimated 2.8 violent crimes, excluding simple assault, per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, and 31.2 property crimes per 1,000 households were reported to law enforcement.3 Estimates from the UCR and NCVS will differ because the two sources use different methods to measure an overlapping but nonidentical set of offenses: ■ The UCR includes murder, nonnegligent manslaughter, and commercial crimes (including burglary of commercial establishments), while the NCVS excludes those crime types. ■ The UCR excludes sexual assault, which the NCVS includes?) ■ The UCR property crime rates are per person, while the NCVS's are per household. Moreover, because the number of households may not grow at the same rate each year as the total population, trend data for rates of property crimes measured by the two programs may not be entirely comparable. There were 2.2 persons age 12 or older per household in 2020. ■ NCVS estimates are based on interviews with a nationally representative sample of persons in US. households. UCR estimates are based on counts of crimes recorded by law enforcement agencies and are weighted to compensate for incomplete reporting. ■ The NCVS does not measure crimes against persons who are homeless or who live in institutional settings (e.g., nursing homes and correctional institutions) or on military bases. Nor does the NCVS measure crimes against children age 11 or younger. The UCR measures crimes against all U.S. residents, including crimes against children age 11 or younger. In some states, mandatory reporting laws require that persons report Sihe 2019 UCR data were the most recent data at the time this report was written. 4Sexual assault includes a range of victimization and is separate from rape or attempted rape. It indudes attacks or threatened attacks invohing unwanted sexual contact between victim and offender. with or without force: grabbing or fondling: and verbal threats. certain crimes against youth. Due to these factors, the age distribution of crimes measured in the UCR differs from that of the NCVS. Restricting the NCVS to violent crime reported to police, and exduding simple assault. keeps NCVS and UCR measures as similar as possible.Taken together, these two measures of crime provide a more comprehensive picture of crime in the U.S. For additional information about the differences between the NCVS and UCR, see the most recent version of The Nation's Two Crime Measures (NO 246832, BJS, September 2014). TABLE 3 Rate of crime reported to police in the Uniform Crime Reporting program and National Crime Victimization Survey, 2019-2020 Type of crime 2019 UCR rate per 1,000 residents' Rate per 1,000 persons age 12 or older 2019 NCVS 2020 NCVS Violent crime excluding simple assault 3.79 338 2.78 Murder 0.05 Rape sexual assaultb 0.43 036 0.26 Robbery 0.82 0.90 0.85 Aggravated assault 2.50 1.92 1.66 rate per 1,000 Rate per 1,000 households residents' 2019 NCVS 2020 NCVS Propertycrime 21.10 33.00 31.19 gurglaryc 141 6.03 4.18 Motor vehicle theft 2.20 3.12 3.18 Note: National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and Uniform Crime Reporting NCR) program crime rates are calculated differently. UCR crime rates are normally reported per 100.000 persons but were recakulated for this report to align with the reporting of NCVS crime rates per 1.000. See appendix table S for standard errors. -Not applicable. alncludes crimes against persons age 11 or younger. persons who are homeless. persons who are institutionalized. and crimes against commercial establishments. These populations are out of sample for the NCVS. blhe NCVS estimate includes sexual assault.The UCR estimate excludes sexual assault and is based on the program's revised definition of rape. See Methodology for details on the measurement of rape or sexual assault in the NCVS. UCR defines burglary as forcible entry. unlawful entry where no force is used, or attempted forcible entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. The NCVS defines burglary as the unlawful or forcible entry or attempted entry of places. induding a permanent residence. other residence (e.g.. a hotel room or vacation residence). or other structure (e.g.. a garage or shed) where there was a completed or attempted theft. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020: and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Crime in the United States. 2019. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 6 3502-024 Page 6 of 22 EFTA_00001616 EFTA00156957 Victims reported a smaller percentage of intimate partner violence in 2020 than in 2019 The NCVS provides statistics on crimes reported and not reported to police and on the reasons why a crime was not reported to police. Victims may not report a crime for a variety of reasons, including fear of reprisal or getting the offender in trouble, believing that police would not or could not do anything to help, and believing the crime to be a personal issue or too trivial to report. Reporting to police may occur during or immediately following a criminal incident or at a later date. Police may be notified by the victim, a third party (including witnesses; other victims; household members; or nonpolice officials, such as school officials or workplace managers), or police may have been at the scene of the incident. In 2020, about 40% of violent victimizations were reported to police, which was not a statistically significant change from 2019 (41%) (table 4). A third (33%) of property victimizations were reported to police in 2020. There were some statistically significant changes in the percentage of crime reported to police from 2019 to 2020. During this time period, the percentage of intimate partner violence reported to police declined from 58% to 41%. The percentage of total burglary and trespassing victimizations reported to police declined from 48% in 2019 to 43% in 2020, which was driven by a decline in burglary reported to police (from 51% to 44%). CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 TABLE 4 Percent of victimizations reported to police, by type of crime. 2019-2020 Type of crime 2019 2020' Potent aim.' 40.9% 402% Rape/sexual assaultb 33.9 22.9 Robbery 46.6 543 Assault 40.9 40.0 Aggravated assault 52.1 57.0 Simple assault 37.9 314 Violent crime excluding simple assault' 46.5% 493% Selected characteristics of violent crime Domestic violenced 52.2% 41.1% Intimate partner violence' 58.4* 41.4 Stranger violence 39.9 43.9 Property crime 32.5% 33.0% Burglary/trespassingr 48.5# 434 Burglaryg 51.4 t 44.2 Trespassingb 42.2 415 Motor vehicle theft 795 74.6 Other thefti 26.8 * 2&9 Note:Categories of violent crime include rape or sexual assault. robbery, aggravated assault. and simple assault. and they indude threatened. attempted. and completed occurrences of those crimes. See appendix table 6 for standard errors. 'Comparison year. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 90% confidence level. aExcludes homicide because the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. hSee Methodology for details on the measurement of rape or sexual assault in the NCVS. 'Includes rape or sexual assault. robbery. and aggravated assault. di ncl udes the subset of violent victimizations that were committed by intimate partners or family members. 'Includes the subset of violent victimization that were committed by current or former spouses. boyfriends. or girlfriends. 'Includes unlawful or forcible entry or attempted entry of places. including a permanent residence. other residence (e.g., a hotel room or vacation residence). or other structure (e.g.. a garage or shed). Includes victimizations where the offender stole. attempted to steal.or did not attempt to steal. Excludes trespassing on land. %dudes only crimes where the offender committed or attempted a theft. hlncludes crimes where the offender did not commit or attempt a theft. Excludes trespassing on land. 'Includes other unlawful taking or attempted unlawful taking of property or cash without personal contact with the victim. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. 7 3502-024 Page 7 of 22 EFIA_00001617 EFTA00156958 Rates of reported and unreported violent crime declined from 2019 to 2020 From 2019 to 2020, the rate of violent crime reported to police declined from 8.6 to 6.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older (table 5). Similarly, the rate of unreported violent crime declined from 12.1 to 9.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. The decreases for the reported and unreported rates of violent crime were both driven by declines in assault. Decreases were also seen in the rates of violent crime, excluding simple assault, reported to police (from 3.4 to 2.8 per 1,000) and not reported to police (from 3.7 to 2.8 per 1,000) during this period. The rate of domestic violence reported to police declined 42%, from 2.2 per 1,000 in 2019 to 1.3 per 1,000 in 2020. Similarly, the rate of intimate partner violence reported to police decreased 51% (from 1.5 to 0/ per 1,000). However, the rates of domestic violence and intimate partner violence not reported to police in 2020 were similar to the rates in 2019. Although there was no statistically significant change in the rate of stranger violence reported to police from 2019 to 2020, the rate of stranger violence not reported to police declined from 4.8 to 3.8 victimizations per 1,000 persons. The rate of property crime not reported to police declined from 67.2 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2019 to 62 per 1,000 in 2020, while the rate of property crime reported to police did not change significantly. For some types of property crime, there were differences between the rate of crime reported and not reported to police during this period. The rate of burglary reported to police declined from 6.0 per 1,000 households in 2019 to 4.2 per 1,000 in 2020, while the rate of burglary not reported to police did not change significantly. The rate of other theft not reported to police decreased from 57.7 to 53.3 per 1,000 during this period, while the rate reported to police did not change significantly. Some property crime types had similar changes over the prior year regardless of whether the crime was reported to police. From 2019 to 2020, decreases were seen in the rates of trespassing both reported (from 2.3 to 1.7 per 1,000) and not reported (from 3.0 to 2.4 per 1,000) to police. There was no statistically significant change in the rate of motor vehicle theft reported and not reported to police from 2019 to 2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 TABLE 5 Rate of victimization by type of crime. 2019-2020 reported and not Reported to poke reported to police, Not reported to police Type of crime 2019 2020' 2019 2020' Violent aimea 8.6t 6.6 12.1 t 9.5 Rape/sexual assaulth 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.8 Robbery 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 Assault 7.1t 55 10.0t 7.9 Aggravated assault 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.2 Simple assault Sgt 3.8 8.3* 6.7 Violent crime excluding simple assauftc 3.4t 2.8 3.7t 2.8 Selected characteristics of violent crime Domestic violenced 2.2t 13 1.9 1.8 Intimate partner violence 1St 0.7 1.0 1.0 Stranger violence 33 3.1 4.8t 3.8 Property crime 33.0 31.2 672t 62.0 Burglaiy/trespassingi 83 t 5.9 8.7 7.6 Burglar 6.0 t 4.2 5.7 5.3 Trespassingh 23t 1.7 10* 2.4 Motor vehicle theft 3.1 3.2 0.8 1.0 Other thefti 21.5 22.1 57.7t 53.3 Note Rates are per 1.000 persons age 12 or older for violent crime and per 1,000 households for property crime. See appendix table 11 for person populations and appendix table 12 for household populations. Categories of violent crime indude rape or sexual assault. robbery. aggravated assault. and simple assault. and they include threatened. attempted. and completed occurrences of those crimes. See appendix table 7 for standard errors. 'Comparison year. (Difference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 90% confidence level. aExcludes homicide because the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. hSee Methodology for details on the measurement of rape or sexual assault in the NCVS. ei nc I udes rape or sexual assault. robbery. and aggravated assault. di ncl udes the subset of violent victimizations that were committed by intimate partners or family members. elncludes the subset of violent victimization: that were committed by current or former spouses. boyfriends. or girlfriends. f Includes unlawful or forcible entry or attempted entry of places. including a permanent residence. other residence (e.g.. a hotel room or vacation residence). or other structure (e.g.. a garage or shed). Includes victimizations where the offender stole. attempted to steal.or did not attempt to steal Excludes trespassing on land. 0Includes only crimes where the offender committed or attempted a theft. hlncludes crimes where the offender did not commit or attempt a theft. Excludes trespassing on land. ilndudes other unlawful taking or attempted unlawful taking of property or cash without personal contact with the victim. Source Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. 8 3502-024 Page 8 of 22 EFTA_00001618 EFTA00156959 The rate of violent victimization against youth ages 12 to 17 declined 51% Both males and females experienced lower rates of violent victimization in 2020 than in 2019. Among males, the rate of violent victimization declined from 21.2 victimizations per 1,000 males age 12 or older in 2019 to 16.6 per 1,000 in 2020 (table 6). For females, the violent victimization rate declined between 2019 and 2020, from 20.8 per 1,000 to 16.2 per 1,000. During the same time period, the violent victimization rate decreased among white persons (from 21.0 to 16.2 per 1,000) and Hispanic persons (from 21.3 to 15.9 per 1,000). The rate of violent victimization among black persons did not change significantly from 2019 to 2020. Violent victimization rates also declined by half for persons ages 12 to 17 (35.2 to 17.4 per 1,000) and by almost a quarter for persons ages 50 to 64 (18.9 to 14.6 per 1,000) from 2019 to 2020. For persons living in households earning less than $25,000 annually, the rate decreased from 37.8 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2019 to 27.4 per 1,000 in 2020. The rate of violence against households earning between $100,000 and $199,999 annually also fell during this period, from 16.2 to 11.8 per 1,000. Violent victimization, excluding simple assault, also trended downward across several victim demographics. The rate decreased among males from 7.5 victimizations per 1,000 males age 12 or older in 2019 to 5.1 per 1,000 in 2020. The rate also declined for white persons (from 6.5 to 5.3 per 1,000) and Hispanic persons (from 10.2 to 5.5 per 1,000). Additionally, decreases in violent crime, excluding simple assault, occurred among persons who were ages 50 to 64 (from 5.6 to 4.0 per 1,000), never married (from 11.9 to 9.4 per 1,000), and married (from 3.0 to 2.2 per 1,000). There were no other statistically significant changes by victim demographic characteristics from 2019 to 2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 TABLE 6 Rate of violent victimization, by type of crime and demographic characteristics of victims. 2019-2 0 2 0 Victim demographic characteristic Total violent crimea 2019 20204 Violent clime simple assault') 2019 excluding 20208 Total 21.0t 164 7.3 t 5.6 Sex Male 212t 16.6 75 t 5.1 Female 20.8 t 16/ 7.0 6.2 Race/ethnicity Whitec 21.0t 16/ 6.5# 5.3 Blackc 18.7 175 7.0 7.5 Hispanic 213# 15.9 10.2t 55 Asian/Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islanderc 85 73 2.7 1.8 °Med 72.7 49.0 215 18.7 Age 12-17 352 t 17.4 11.0 5.7 18-24 37.2 29.6 16.0 11.8 25-34 25.0 21.4 8.9 9.0 35-49 195 18.3 6.7 5.5 50-64 18.9t 14.6 5.6* 4.0 65 or older 6.0 45 1.9 1.6 Marital status Never married 312t 23.9 11.9* 94 Married 115* 93 3.0* 2.2 ViridowAvidower 10.7* 6.8 4.9 2.8 Divorced 285 24.1 10.7 7.7 Separated 64.1 4/1 19.5 18.9 Household Income Less than 525.000 37.8 t 27.4 14.2 11.4 525.000-549.999 19.7 17/ 7.5 5.8 554000-599999 16.6 144 5.5 5.0 5100400-5199.999 162t 11.8 3.9 3.4 5204000 or more 18.0 133 7.0! 2.8 Note Rates are per 1.000 persons age 12 or older. Includes threatened. attempted. and completed occurrences of those crimes. See appendix table 8 for standard errors. See appendix table 11 for person populations. 'Comparison year. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level. *Difference with comparison year is significant at the 90% confidence level. !Interpret data with caution. Estimate is based on 10 or fewer sample cases. or coefficient of variation is greater than 50%. aindudes rape or sexual assault. robbery. aggravated assault. and simple assault. Excludes homicide because the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. blndudes rape or sexual assault. robbery. and aggravated assault. txdudes persons of Hispanic/Latino origin (e.g.. "white* refers to non-Hispank white persons and "black" refers to non•Hispanic black persons). dlndudes American Indians and Alaska Natives and persons of two or more races. Source Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. 9 3502-024 Page 9 of 22 EFTA_00001619 EFTA00156960 Rates of violent and property victimization fell in suburban areas but did not change in urban and rural areas From 2019 to 2020, the rate of violent victimization in suburban areas declined from 22.3 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older to 16.8 per 1,000 (table 7). This pattern also held for other crime types. The rate of violent crime, excluding simple assault, declined in suburban areas from 7.6 to 5.6 per 1,000 persons. The rate of property crime in suburban areas declined from 100.8 per 1,000 households in 2019 to 90.5 per 1,000 in 2020. There were no statistically significant changes in the rates of violent crime, violent crime excluding simple assault, and property crime in urban or rural areas from 2019 to 2020. The number of firearm victimizations declined from 2019 to 2020 The number of violent victimizations in the U.S. that involved a firearm declined 27%, from 481,950 in 2019 to 350,460 in 2020 (table 8). Firearm victimizations are defined as violent victimizations where the offender possessed, showed, or used a firearm. About 61% of these victimizations were reported to police in 2020. From 2019 to 2020, the number of firearm victimizations reported to police declined from 290,790 to 212,470. The rate of violent crime involving a firearm was 1.3 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2020, down from 1.7 per 1,000 in 2019. TABLE 8 Firearm violence, 2019-2020 2019 2020• Total violent victimizations 5213410 t 4,558,150 Firearm victimization 481,9501. 350,460 Rate of firearm victimitationa 1.7t 1.3 Firearm victimizations reported to police Number 290,790 t 212,470 Percent 60.3% 60.6% Note:Includes violent crimes in which the offender possessed. showed, or used a firearm. See appendix table 10 for standard errors. •Comparison year. tDifference with comparison year is signicant at the 95% confidence level. agate is per 1.000 persons age 12 or older. See appendix table 11 for person populations. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 2019-2020. TABLE 7 Rate of victimization, by type of crime and location of residence, 2019-2020 Rate per 1.000a Violent (Am& Violent crime exduding simple assaultc Property crime4 Location of residence' 2019 2020' 2019 2020' 2019 2020' Urbanf 21.1 19.0 8.0 7.7 153.0 158.9 Suburban 22.3t 168 7.61 5.6 100.8t 903 Ruralh 16.3 13.4 5.6 4.5 68.1 65.6 Note: See appendix table 9 for standard errors. •Comparison year. toifference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level. agate is per 1.000 persons age 12 or older for violent crime and per 1.000 households for property crime. See appendix table 11 for person populations and appendix table 12 for household populations. blncludes rape or sexual assault. robbery. aggravated assault. and simple assault. Excludes homicide because the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. cIncludes rape or sexual assault. robbery. and aggravated assault dlncludes burglary. residential trespassing. motor vehicle theft. and other theft. eSee Methodology in Criminal Victimization. 20 l 9(NO 255113. IDS. September 2020) for details on the revised measurement of location of residence in the NCVS. tAll census blocks within cities or U.S. Census Bureau-designated places that meet certain criteria based on their population and density. See Methodology in Cdminol Victimization. 2079 (NO 255113. IUS, September 2020). MI other census blocks not classified as urban or rural. hurl census blocks not in US. Census Bureau•defined urbanized areas or urban clusters. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 10 3502-024 Page 10 of 22 EFIA_00001620 EFTA00156961 Methodology Survey coverage The Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is an annual data collection carried out by the U.S. Census Bureau. The NCVS is a self-report survey that is administered annually from January 1 to December 31. Annual NCVS estimates are based on the number and characteristics of crimes that respondents experienced during the prior 6 months, excluding the month in which they were interviewed. Therefore, the 2020 survey covers crimes experienced from July 1, 2019 to November 30, 2020, with March 15, 2020 as the middle of the reference period. Crimes are classified by the year of the survey and not by the year of the crime. The NCVS is administered to persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. It collects information on nonfatal personal crimes (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, and personal larceny (purse snatching and pocket picking)) and household property crimes (burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of theft). The survey collects information on threatened, attempted, and completed crimes. It collects data both on crimes reported and not reported to police. Unless specified otherwise, estimates in this report include threatened, attempted, and completed crimes. In addition to providing annual level and change estimates on criminal victimization, the NCVS is the primary source of information on the nature of criminal victimization incidents. Survey respondents provide information about themselves (including age, sex, race, ethnicity, marital status, education level, and income) and whether they experienced a victimization. For each victimization incident, respondents report information about the offender (including age, sex, race, ethnicity, and victim-offender relationship), characteristics of the crime (including time and place of occurrence, use of weapons, nature of injury, and economic consequences), whether the crime was reported to police, reasons the crime was or was not reported, and experiences with the criminal justice system. Household information, induding household-level demographics (e.g., income) and property victimizations committed against the household (e.g., burglary or trespassing), is typically collected from the reference person. The reference person is any responsible CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION. 20201 OCTOBER 2021 adult member of the household who is not likely to permanently leave the household. Because an owner or renter of the sampled housing unit is normally the most responsible and knowledgeable household member, this person is generally designated as the reference person and household respondent. However, a household respondent does not have to be one of the household members who owns or rents the unit. In the NCVS, a household is defined as a group of persons who all reside at a sampled address. Persons are considered household members when the sampled address is their usual place of residence at the time of the interview and when they have no primary place of residence elsewhere. Once selected, households remain in the sample for 3.5 years, and eligible persons in these households are interviewed every 6 months, either in person or over the phone, for a total of seven interviews. First interviews are typically conducted in person, with subsequent interviews conducted either in person or by phone. New households rotate into the sample on an ongoing basis to replace outgoing households that have been in the sample for the full 3.5-year period. The sample includes persons living in group quarters, such as dormitories, rooming houses, and religious group dwellings, and excludes persons living on military bases or in institutional settings such as correctional or hospital facilities. Measurement of crime in the National Crime Victimization Survey NCVS data can be used to produce several types of estimates, including victimization, incident, and prevalence rates. Victimization rates measure the extent to which violent and property victimizations occur in a specified population during a specified time. Victimization numbers show the total number of times that people or households are victimized by crime. For crimes affecting persons, NCVS victimization rates are estimated by dividing the number of victimizations that occur during a specified time (T) by the population at risk for those victimizations and then multiplying the rate by 1,000. Victimization rate s Number of unique persons (or households) in the specified population , Number of victimization experienced by a specified population , x 1.000 11 3502-024 Page 11 of 22 EFTA_00001621 EFTA00156962 For victimization rates, each victimization represents one person (for personal crimes) or one household (for property crimes) affected by a crime.5 Every victimization experienced by a person or household during the year is counted. For example, if one person experiences two violent crimes during the year, both are counted in the victimization rate. If one household experiences two property crimes, both are counted in the victimization rate. Victimization estimates are presented in figure I and tables 1 through 8 in this report. Incident rates are another measure of crime. The number of incidents is the number of specific criminal acts involving one or more victims. If every victimization had one victim, the number of incidents would be the same as the number of victimizations. If there was more than one victim, the incident estimate is adjusted to compensate for the possibility that the incident could be reported several times by multiple victims and thus be overcounted. For example, if two people were robbed during the same incident, this crime would be counted as one incident and two victimizations. Incident rates are not included in this report. Prevalence rates are a third measure that reflect a population's risk of experiencing one or more criminal victimizations. They describe the level of victimization, like victimization rates, but are based on the number of unique persons or households in the population experiencing at least one victimization during a specified time. Prevalence rates are not included in this report. The key distinction between a victimization rate and a prevalence rate is whether the numerator consists of the number of victimizations or the number of unique victims. For example, a person who experienced two robberies within the past year would be counted twice in the victimization rate but only once in the prevalence rate. Prevalence rates are estimated by dividing the number of unique victims or victimized households in the specified population by the total number of persons or households in the population and multiplying the rate by 100, yielding the percentage of the population victimized at least once in a period. Prevalence rate T = Number of unique victims (or victimized households) In a specified populations X100 Number of unique persons (or households) In the specified population 7 51n the NCVS, personal crimes are personal larceny (purse snatching and pocket picking) and violent victimizations (rape or sexual assault, robbery. aggravated assault. and simple assault). Homicide is not included because the NCVS is based on interviews with victims. Property crimes are burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft. and other theft. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 For more information about measuring prevalence in the NCVS, see the most recent version of Measuring the Prevalence of Crime with the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCJ 241656, BJS, September 2013). Nonresponse and weighting adjustments The 2020 NCVS data file includes 138,327 household interviews. Overall, 67% of eligible households completed interviews. Within participating households, interviews with 223,079 persons were completed in 2020, representing an 82% unweighted response rate among eligible persons from responding households. Victimization that occurred outside of the U.S. were excluded from this report. In 2020, about 0.4% of the unweighted victimizations occurred outside of the U.S. NCVS data are weighted to produce annual estimates of victimization for persons age 12 or older living in U.S. households. Because the NCVS relies on a sample rather than a census of the entire U.S. population, weights are designed to adjust to known population totals and to compensate for survey nonresponse and other aspects of the complex sample design. NCVS data files include person, household, victimization, and incident weights. Person weights provide an estimate of the population represented by each person in the sample. Household weights provide an estimate of the household population represented by each household in the sample. After proper adjustment, both person and household weights are also typically used to form the denominator in calculations of crime rates. For personal crimes, the incident weight is derived by dividing the person weight of a victim by the total number of persons victimized during an incident, as reported by the respondent. For property crimes measured at the household level, the incident weight and the household weight are the same, because the victim of a property crime is considered to be the household as a whole. The incident weight is most frequently used to calculate estimates of offenders and victims demographics. Victimization weights used in this report account for the number of persons victimized during an incident and for high-frequency repeat victimizations (i.e., series victimizations). Series victimizations are similar in type to one another but occur with such frequency that a victim is unable to recall each individual event or describe each event in detail. Survey procedures allow NCVS interviewers to identify and classify these similar victimizations as series victimizations and to collect 12 3502-024 Page 12 of 22 EFIA_00001622 EFTA00156963 detailed information on only the most recent incident in the series. The weighting counts series victimizations as the actual number of victimizations reported by the victim, up to a maximum of 10. Doing so produces more reliable estimates of crime levels than counting such victimizations only once, while the cap at 10 minimizes the effect of extreme outliers on rates. According to the 2020 data, series victimizations accounted for 1.1% of all victimizations and 2.7% of all violent victimizations. Additional information on the enumeration of series victimizations is detailed in the up-to-date report Methods for Counting High-Frequency Repeat Victimizations in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCJ 237308, BJS, April 2012). The 2020 NCVS weights include an additional adjustment to address the impact of modified field operations due to COVID-19. For more information on the weighting adjustments applied in 2020, see the Source and Accuracy Statement for the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey in the NCVS 2020 Codebook (https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/NACJD/series/95) and National Crime Victimization Survey, 2016: Technical Documentation (NCJ 251442, BJS, December 2017). Beginning in 2020, BJS incorporated another factor to moderate the contribution of outlier weights on NCVS estimates. For more information on this methodology, see Source and Accuracy Statement for the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey in the NCVS 2020 Codebook (https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/NACJD/series/95). Changes to the household weighting adjustment in 2017 The 2017 NCVS weights included a new adjustment so household weights reflect independent housing unit totals available internally at the U.S. Census Bureau. This new adjustment was applied only to household weights and does not affect person weights. Historically, the household weights were adjusted to reflect independent totals for the person population. This new weighting adjustment improves on the prior one and better aligns the number of estimated households in the NCVS with other U.S. Census Bureau household survey estimates. Due to this new adjustment, the 2017 NCVS estimate for the number of households was about 8% lower than the 2016 NCVS estimate. As a result, the estimate of the number of households affected by property crime was also about 8% lower. When making comparisons of property crime at the household level between 2017 CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 and prior years, compare victimization or prevalence rates. Rates are unaffected by this change in weighting methodology because both the numerator and denominator are equally affected. Comparisons of the number of households that were victimized between 2017 and prior years are inappropriate due to this change in weighting methodology. For more information on weighting in the NCVS, see the Nonresponse and weighting adjustments in this report and National Crime Victimization Survey 2016: Technical Documentation (NCJ 251442, BJS, December 2017). Standard error computations When national estimates are derived from a sample, as with the NCVS, caution must be used when comparing one estimate to another or when comparing estimates over time. Although one estimate may be larger than another, estimates based on a sample have some degree of sampling error. The sampling error of an estimate depends on several factors, including the amount of variation in the responses and the size of the sample. When the sampling error around an estimate is taken into account, estimates that appear different may not be statistically significant. One measure of the sampling error associated with an estimate is the standard error. The standard error may vary from one estimate to the next. Generally, an estimate with a smaller standard error provides a more reliable approximation of the true value than an estimate with a larger standard error. Estimates with relatively large standard errors have less precision and reliability and should be interpreted with caution. For complex sample designs, there are several methods that can be used to generate standard errors around a point estimate (e.g., numbers, percentages, and rates). These include direct variance estimation and generalized variance function (GVF) parameters. BJS used a specialized version of Balanced Repeated Replication (BRR) estimation using Fay's method to generate standard errors around the victimization estimates.6 BRR estimation is a type of direct replication variance estimation. Under replicate variance estimation, a set of replicate weights (e.g., the NCVS typically has a set consisting of 160 replicate weights) is used to capture the sampling variance. Fay's method is used for surveys that have rare outcomes in which the entire sample is 6Wolter, K.M. (2007). Introduction to variance estimation (2nd ed.). Springer. 13 3502-024 Page 13 of 22 EFIA_00001623 EFTA00156964 necessary to properly estimate the variance. The standard errors for victimization estimates in this report (see figure 1 and tables 1 through 8) were estimated using BRR and differ from those reported in prior Criminal Victimization bulletins, which used GVF parameters. Year-to-year statistically significant differences may also vary from previous reports. Although prevalence estimates are excluded from this report, BJS uses BRR and Taylor Series Linearization (TSL) methods to generate standard errors around these estimates. The TSL method directly estimates variances through a linearized function by combining variance estimates from the stratum and primary sampling units (PSUs) used to sample households and persons, In the NCVS, the design parameters used for computing TSL variances are PSUEDOSTRATA (stratum) and HALFSAMPLE (PSU). These design parameters are available for all years except the first half of 1993 and all of 2016; therefore, BRR methods were used for 2016 prevalence estimates. Although not used in this report, another method used to produce standard errors for NCVS estimates is through GVF parameters. The U.S. Census Bureau produces GVF parameters for BJS, which account for aspects of the NCVS's complex sample design and represent the curve fitted to a selection of individual standard errors, using a specialized version of BRR based on Fay's method. GVFs express the variance as a function of the expected value of the survey estimate.8 The GVF parameters are generated by fitting estimates and their relative variance to a regression model, using an iterative weighted least-squares procedure where the weight is the inverse of the square of the predicted relative variance. For more information on GVFs, see the most recent version of the National Crime Victimization Survey, 2016: Technical Documentation (NCJ 251442, BJS, December 2017). GVF parameters are available in the codebooks published with the NCVS public use files through the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (www.icpsr.umich.edu/nacjd). Direct variance estimation—BRR and TSL—is generally considered more accurate than GVFs in terms of how closely the variance estimate approximates the true variance. With direct variance estimation, each estimate is generated based on the outcome being estimated rather than being generated based on a generalized function. BJS conducted statistical tests to determine whether differences in estimated numbers, percentages, and 7lbid. albid CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 rates in this report were statistically significant once sampling error was taken into account. Using statistical analysis programs developed specifically for the NCVS, all comparisons in the text of this report were tested for significance. The primary test procedure was the Student's t-statistic, which tests the difference between two sample estimates. Findings described in this report as increases or decreases passed a test at either the 0.05 level (95% confidence level) or 0.10 level (90% confidence level) of significance. Figures and tables in this report should be referenced for testing on specific findings. Estimates and standard errors of the estimates in this report may be used to generate a confidence interval around the estimate as a measure of the margin of error. The following example illustrates how standard errors may be used to generate confidence intervals: Based on the 2020 NCVS, the rate of violent victimization in 2020 was 16.4 victimization per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. (See table 1.) Using the BRR method of direct variance estimation, BJS determined that the estimated victimization rate has a standard error of 0.79. (See appendix table 2.) A confidence interval around the estimate is generated by multiplying the standard error by ± 1.96 (the t-score of a normal, two-tailed distribution that excludes 2.5% at either end of the distribution). Therefore, the 95% confidence interval around the 16.4 estimate from 2020 is 16.4 ± (0.79 x 1.96) or (14.84 to 17.94). In other words, if BJS used the same sampling method to select different samples and computed an interval estimate for each sample, it would expect the true population parameter (rate of violent victimization) to fall within the interval estimates 95% of the time. For this report, BJS also calculated a coefficient of variation (CV) for all estimates, representing the ratio of the standard error to the estimate. CVs (not shown in tables) provide another measure of reliability and a means for comparing the precision of estimates across measures with differing levels or metrics. Revised 2016 data file For 2016, BJS increased the NCVS sample size to facilitate the ability to produce state-level victimization estimates for the 22 most populous states. At the same time, the sample was adjusted to reflect the U.S. population counts in the 2010 decennial census. These changes resulted in a historically large number of new households and first-time interviews in the first half of 2016 and produced challenges in comparing 2016 results to prior data years. 14 3502-024 Page 14 of 22 EFIA_00001624 EFTA00156965 Working with the U.S. Census Bureau, BJS subsequently devised the methodology that was used to create the revised 2016 NCVS data file. The result was revised criminal victimization estimates that were nationally representative for 2016 and could be compared with prior and future years. See National Crime Victimization Survey revised 2016 estimates text box (pp. 3.4) and Methodology (pp. 15.18) in Criminal Victimization, 2016: Revised (NCJ 252121, BJS, October 2018), for more information. NCVS measurement of rape or sexual assault The NCVS uses a two-stage measurement approach in the screening and classification of criminal victimization, including rape or sexual assault. In the first stage of screening, survey respondents are administered a series of short-cue screening questions designed to help respondents think about different experiences they may have had during the reference period. (See NCVS- I at https://bjs.ojp.govicontent/pub/pdfincvs19_bsq_ q3q4.pdf.) This design improves respondents' recall of events, particularly for incidents that may not immediately come to mind as crimes, such as those committed by family members and acquaintances. Respondents who answer affirmatively to any of the short-cue screening items are subsequently administered a crime incident report (CIR) designed to classify incidents into specific crime types. (See NCVS-2 at https://bjs.ojp.govicontent/pub/pdf/ ncvs19_cir_q3q4.pdf.) First stage of measurement. Two short-cue screening questions are specifically designed to target sexual victimization: 1. Other than any incidents already mentioned, has anyone attacked or threatened you in any of these ways— a. with any weapon, such as a gun or knife b. with anything like a baseball bat, frying pan, scissors, or stick c. by something thrown, such as a rock or bottle d. by grabbing, punching, or choking e. any rape, attempted rape, or other types of sexual attack f. any face-to-face threats g. any attack or threat or use of force by anyone at all? Please mention it even if you are not certain it was a crime. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 2. Incidents involving forced or unwanted sexual acts are often difficult to talk about. Other than any incidents already mentioned, have you been forced or coerced to engage in unwanted sexual activity by— a. someone you did not know b. a casual acquaintance c. someone you know well? With regard to sexual victimization, respondents may screen into a CIR if they respond affirmatively to other short-cue screening questions. For instance, a separate screening question cues respondents to think of attacks or threats that took place in specific locations, such as at home, work, or school. Respondents who recall a sexual victimization that occurred at home, work, or school and answer affirmatively would be administered a CIR even if they did not respond affirmatively to the screening question targeting sexual victimization. Second stage of measurement. The CIR is used to collect information on the attributes of each incident. The key attributes of sexual violence that are used to classify a victimization as a rape or sexual assault are the type of attack and physical injury suffered. Victims are asked if "the offender hit you, knockledj you down, or actually attack[ed] you in any way"; if "the offender TRIED] to attack you"; or if "the offender THREATEN[ED] you with harm in any way?" The survey participant is classified as a victim of rape or sexual assault if they respond affirmatively to one of these three questions and then responds that the completed, attempted, or threatened attack was— ■ rape ■ attempted rape ■ sexual assault other than rape or attempted rape ■ verbal threat of rape ■ verbal threat of sexual assault other than rape ■ unwanted sexual contact with force (grabbing, fondling, etc.) ■ unwanted sexual contact without force (grabbing, fondling, etc.). If the victim selects one of the following response options to describe the attack, they are also classified as a victim of rape or sexual assault if the injuries suffered as a result of the incident are described as— ■ raped ■ attempted rape ■ sexual assault other than rape or attempted rape. 15 3502-024 Page 15 of 22 EFIA_00001625 EFTA00156966 Coercion. The CIR does not ask respondents if psychological coercion was used, nor make any explicit reference to the victim being unable to provide consent (e.g., in incidents involving drug or alcohol use). One screening question targeted to rape and sexual assault asks respondents if force or coercion was used to initiate unwanted sexual activity. The final classification of incidents by the CIR results in the following definitions of rape and sexual assault used in the NCVS: Rape. Coerced or forced sexual intercourse. Forced sexual intercourse means vaginal, anal, or oral penetration by the offender(s). This category could include incidents where the penetration was from a foreign object such as a bottle. It includes attempted rape, threatened rape, male and female victims, and incidents involving victims and offenders who are the same sex or different sexes. Sexual assault. A wide range of victimizations, separate from rape, attempted rape, or threatened rape. These crimes include attacks or threatened attacks involving unwanted sexual contact between the victim and offender. Sexual assaults may or may not involve force and include such things as grabbing or fondling. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION. 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 Classification of rape and sexual assault in the National Crime Victimization Survey Measure Element of sexual violence Completed rape Type of attack= rape Type of injury = rape Attempted rape Type of attack= attempted rape Type of injury = attempted rape Type of threat = verbal threat of rape with weapon Threatened rape Type of attempted attack/threat = verbal threat of rape Sexual assault Type of attack= sexual assault other than rapeor attempted rape Type of injury= sexual assault other than rape or attempted rape Type of attempted attack/threat = unwanted sexual contact with force Type of attempted attack/threat = unwanted sexual contact without force Type of attempted attack/threat = verbal threat of sexual assault other than rape Note:Victim is determined to be present in all measures of rape and sexual assault. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2020. 16 3502-024 Page 16 of 22 EFTA_00001626 EFTA00156967 APPENDIX TABLE 1 Estimates and standard errors for figure 1: Rate of victimization, by type of crime, 2019-2020 Type of violent crime 2019 Rate per 1,000 2020e Rate per 1,000 Standard error 95%confidence interval Standard error 9596 amfidence interval Lower bound Upper bound Lower bound Upper bound Violent crimee 21.01 1.07 18.91 23.08 16.4 0.79 14.84 17.94 Rape/sexual assaultb 1.7 0.26 1.16 2.16 1/ 0.18 0.80 151 Robbery 1.9 0.22 149 2.37 1.6 0.20 1.19 1.96 Aggravated assault 3.7 032 3.06 4.30 29 0/7 240 3.44 Simple assault 13.7 t 0.89 11.98 1147 10.7 0.61 955 11.95 Violent crime excluding simple assaulf 731 0.47 6.36 8.18 5.6 038 4.90 639 Property crime 101.41 1.96 9754 105.22 945 2.12 90.30 98.61 Burglaryd 11.71 0.68 10.41 13.08 95 058 8.32 10.60 Trespassinge 551 040 4.70 6.27 4.1 033 350 4.80 Motor vehkle theft 3.9 034 3.25 4.59 43 032 3.65 4.89 Other Mehl 80.2 1.70 76.90 83.56 76.6 1.86 7293 80/3 Note: Violent crime rates are per 1.000 persors age 12 or older and property crime rates are per 1.000 households •Comparison year. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 95% confidence level. tDifference with comparison year is significant at the 90% confidence level. aExdudes homicide because the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is based on interviews with victims. bSee Methodology for details on the measurement of rape or sexual assault in the NCVS. cIncludes rape or sexual assault. robbery. and aggravated assault dlncludes only aimes where the offender committed or attempted a theft. °includes crimes where the offender did not commit or attempt a theft. Excludes trespassing on land. fIndudes other unlawful taking or attempted unlawful taking of property or cash without personal contact with the victim. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION. 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 17 3502-024 Page 17 of 22 EFTA_00001627 EFTA00156968 APPENDIX TABLE 2 Standard errors for table 1: Number and rate of violent victimizations, by type of crime, 2016-2020 2016 Rate per 2017 Rate per 2018 Rate per 2019 Rate per 2020 Rate per Type of violent crime Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Violent crime 244.399 0.90 252.760 0.93 343.745 1.25 295.287 1.07 219.870 0.79 Rape/sexual assault 54.6% 0.20 63.031 0/3 76.473 0.28 70.656 0.26 50.445 0.18 Robbery 45.806 0.17 71.490 0/6 61.685 0.22 61.708 0.22 54,778 0/0 Assault 226.970 0.83 228.155 0.84 317.637 1.15 264.712 0.96 198,848 0.72 Aggravated assault 83.790 0.31 73.874 0/7 69.272 0.25 87.553 0.32 73.767 0/7 Simple assault 198.828 0.73 215.126 0.79 316.022 1.15 246.234 0.89 169.905 0.61 Violent crime excluding simple assault 107.838 0.40 118.460 0.44 126.295 0.46 128.935 0.47 105.983 038 Selected characteristics of violent crime Domestic violence 113.358 0.42 118258 0.43 105.891 0.39 138.056 0.50 95.903 034 Intimate partner violence 91,818 0.34 84.500 031 86.437 0.31 100.668 036 60.582 0/2 Stranger violence 134.891 0.50 124.632 0.46 235.794 0.86 147.625 033 141.274 051 Note: Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey2016-2020. APPENDIX TABLE 3 Estimates for figure 3: Monthly household response rates for the National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020 Household response rate Month Household response rate (returning sample only) January 2019 735% February 2019 70.8 March 2019 72/ April 2019 71.9 May 2019 72/ June 2019 715 July 2019 70.6 August 2019 71.4 September 2019 70.0 October 2019 71.1 November 2019 68.7 December 2019 675 January 2020 70/ February 2020 69.9 March 2020 67.0 April 2020 642% May 2020 62.9 June 2020 64.4 July 2020 66.0 August 2020 68.3 September 2020 72.0 October 2020 70.1 November 2020 67.6 December 2020 665 -Not applicable. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 18 3502-024 Page 18 of 22 EFTA_00001628 EFTA00156969 APPENDIX TABLE 4 Standard errors for table 2: Number and rate of property victimizations, by type of crime. 2016-2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 Rate per 2020 Rate per r Rate per Rate per Type of property crime Number 1,000 Number 1RatOtlie , Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Number 1,000 Total 367,255 272 247,507 1.97 246,035 1.90 256,412 1.96 269,002 2.12 Burglary/trespassing 131,523 0.98 107.144 0.88 111,336 0.89 96,471 0.76 85,621 0.67 Burglary 115,021 0.86 79,260 0.65 93,132 0.75 86,822 0.68 74,843 038 Trespassing 72874 034 61.171 050 43,738 035 51,388 0.40 42.362 033 Motor vehicle theft 61,985 0.47 38.067 031 40,105 032 42,872 034 40,609 032 Other theft 291.599 217 199.547 158 202,949 1.56 221,561 1.70 235,643 1.86 Note: Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2016-2020. APPENDIX TABLE 5 Standard errors for table 3: Rate of crime reported to police in the Uniform Crime Reporting program and APPENDIX TABLE 6 Standard errors for table 4: Percent of victimizations reported to police, by type of crime, 2019-2020 National Crime Victimization Survey, 2019-2020 Type of crime 2019 2020 Rate per 1,000 persons age 12 or older Violent crime 2.27% 2.36% Type of crime 2019 NCVS 2020 NCVS Rape/sexual assault 8/6 5.13 Violent crime excluding simple Robbery 5.44 6.14 assault 0.272 0/31 Assault 257 2.72 Murder Aggravated assault 4.45 4.75 Rape/sexual assault 0.174 0.059 Simple assault 2.86 3.16 Robbery 0.128 0.123 Violent crime excluding simple assault 3.16% 3.20% Aggravated assault 0.160 0.167 Selected characteristics of violent crime Rate per 1,000 households Domestic violence 558% 5.05% 2019 NCVS 2020 NCVS Intimatepartner violence 7.08 5.54 Property crime 1.070 1.000 Stranger violence 247 3.07 Burglary 0.438 0363 Property crime 0.82% 0.85% Motor vehicle theft 0298 0.248 Burglary/trespassing 1.93 2.27 Note Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Burglary 231 2.80 -Not applicable. Trespassing 299 4.10 Source Bureau of Justice Statistic. National Crirnefictimization Survey, Motor vehicle theft 339 3.96 2019-2020. Other theft 0.89 0.87 Note Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source Bureau of Justice Statistic. National Crime Vrctimization Survey, 2019-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 19 3502-024 Page 19 of 22 EFTA_00001629 EFTA00156970 APPENDIX TABLE 7 Standard errors for table 5: Rate of victimization reported and not reported to police, by type of crime, 2019-2020 Reported to police Not reported to police Type of crime 2019 2020 2019 2020 Violent crime 032 0.43 0.90 0.67 Rape/sexual assault 0.17 0.06 0.19 0.17 Robbery 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.15 Assault 0.46 0.40 0.84 0.63 Aggravated assault 0.16 0.17 0.28 0.21 Simple assault 0.42 0.35 0.78 0.58 Violent crime excluding simple assault 0.27 0.23 0.39 0.29 Selected characteristics of violent crime Domestic violence 028 0.16 0.38 0.30 Intimate partner violence 0/9 0.12 0.21 0.17 Stranger violence 0/8 0.34 0.38 0.32 Property crime 1.07 1.00 1.52 1.70 Burglary/trespassing 0.48 0.44 0.53 0.47 Burglary 0.44 0.36 0.43 0.43 Trespassing 0/0 0.23 0.32 0.24 Motor vehicle theft 030 0.25 0.15 0.18 Other theft 0.88 0.80 1.39 1.54 Note Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source Bureau of Justice Statistic. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 APPENDIX TABLE 8 Standard errors for table 6: Rate of violent victimization, by type of crime and demographic characteristics of victims. 2019-2020 Violent crime excluding Victim demographic Total violent crime simple assault characteristic 2019 2020 2019 2020 Total 1.07 039 0.47 038 Sex Male 1.53 1.15 0.72 0.44 Female 1.30 1.01 0.62 0.58 Race/ethnkity White 1.46 0.98 0.55 0.48 Black 2.13 2.06 1.06 1.10 Hispanic 2.10 2.01 1.55 0.91 Asian/Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander 1.70 2.03 0.81 0.75 Other 13.34 8.64 4.41 5.50 Age 12-17 5.53 3.07 3.12 135 18-24 3.84 3.71 2.31 1.93 2544 3.37 1.93 0.91 1.20 35-49 1.34 2.17 0.69 0.59 50-64 1.75 1.24 0.75 0.42 65 or older 0.90 0.54 0.29 0.29 Marital status Never married 2.35 1.70 1.11 0.89 Married 1.03 0.74 0.38 0.22 Widow/widower 2.01 1.16 1.28 0.69 Divorced 2.98 2.20 1.73 0.91 Separated 11.17 7.72 4.16 5.28 Household income Less than 525.000 4.09 2.42 1.38 1.20 525.000-549.999 1.75 1.64 0.91 0.78 550.000-599.999 1.36 1.63 0.69 0.64 5100.000-5199.999 1.68 134 0.58 0.48 5200.000 or more 4.86 2.06 3.51 0.62 Note: Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. 20 3502-024 Page 20 of 22 EFTA_00001630 EFTA00156971 APPENDIX TABLE 9 Standard errors for table 7: Rateof victimization, by type of crime and location of residence, 2019-2020 Rate per 1,000 Vlolentcrime excluding simple Location of Violent mime assault Property crime residence 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 Urban 2.03 1.66 1.06 1.04 7.66 752 Suburban 130 0.95 0.60 0.45 232 2.21 Rural 2.08 1.90 1.20 0.87 4.08 434 Note: Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 2019-2020. APPENDIX TABLE 10 Standard errors for table 8: Firearm violence, 2 019-2 0 2 0 2019 2020 Total violent victimizations 295,287 219.870 Firearm victimizations 45,157 44,615 Rate of fireami vktimization 0.16 0.16 Firearm vktimizations reported to police Number 31227 26,023 Percent 4.05% 6.84% Note Standard errors in this report may vary from previously published standard errors. See Methodology for more information. Source Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2019-2020. APPENDIX TABLE 11 Population of persons age 12 or older in the U.S., by demographic characteristics, 2016-2020 Demographk characteristic 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total 272,204,190 272,468,480 275,325,390 276,872,470 278,082,260 Sex Male 132,525,350 132,432,710 133,907,490 134,693,660 135,260,190 Female 139,678,840 140,035,770 141,417,890 142,178,810 142,822,080 Race/ethnicity Whiten 172,882,890 171,454,370 171,493,180 171,423,480 171,267,760 Blacka 33,623,820 32,699,520 33,132,390 33,397,100 33,688,820 Hispanic 44,470,950 45,481,910 46,997,610 47,890,870 48,640,170 Asian/Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders 16,430,300 17,472,290 18,094,710 18,335,230 18,867,300 Otherab 4,796,230 5,360,390 5,607,500 5,825,790 5,618,230 Age 12-17 25,043,610 24,911,170 24,917,160 24,941,440 24,992,970 18-24 30,301,000 29,883,550 29,838,720 29,646,500 29,353,220 25-34 44,303,050 44327,500 44346,880 45,289,720 45,294,090 35-49 61,158,070 60,878,870 61,429,050 61,483,410 61,393,010 50-64 63,332,410 62,955,630 62,940,810 62,643,880 62,477,170 65 molder 48,066,050 49,511,760 51,252,780 52,867,520 54,571,810 Marital status Never married 95,415,230 96,211,120 97,152,920 97,943,560 99,468,100 Married 127,704,070 127,923,650 128,744,200 129,699,090 129,399,370 Widowed 15,053,020 14,832,940 15,166,010 15,160,640 15,350,940 Divorced 27,189,410 26,776,250 27,360,570 27,184,390 27,280,860 Separated 5,022,050 4,937,290 5,129.600 4,970,250 4,810,270 aExducles persons of Nispaniaatino origin. (egg..' white' refers to non•liispanic white persons and 'black' refers to non•Hispanic black persons). laincludes American Indians and Alaska Natives and persons of two or more races. Source Bureau of Justice Statistics. National Crime Victimization Survey, 2016-2020. APPENDIX TABLE 12 Population of households in the U.S., 2016-2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total 133365.270 123.085,790 124,824,660 126.433.890 127,945.770 Note:The 8% decline in the number of households from 2016 to 2017 was due to a new adjustment that modified the household weights. See Methodology for more information. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistic. National Crime Victimization Survey. 2016-2020. CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION, 2020 I OCTOBER 2021 21 3502-024 Page 21 of 22 EFTA_00001631 EFTA00156972 The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice is the principal federal agency responsible for measuring crime, criminal victimization, criminal offenders, victims of crime, correlates of crime, and the operation of criminal and civil justice systems at the federal, state, tribal, and local levels. BJS collects, analyzes, and disseminates reliable statistics on crime and justice systems in the United States, supports improvements to state and local criminal justice information systems, and participates with national and international organizations to develop and recommend national standards for justice statistics. Doris J. James is the acting director. This report was written by Rachel E. Morgan and Alexandra Thompson. Erika Harrell verified the report. David Fialkoff edited the report. Carrie Epps-Carey produced the report. October 2021, NCJ 301775 BJS HI NIP] III Office o Jus ice P ograms Building Solutions • Supporting Communities • Advancing Justice www.ojp.gov 3502-024 Page 22 of 22 EFTA_00001632 EFTA00156973