From: Ike Groff

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.10.13 Date: Fri, 10 May 2013 09:50:07 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.jpg: image002.png La.:Description: Description: Good Morning ... Europe up 20-70 bps (Italy +1.2%) ... NKY +2.93%, SHCOMP +0.62%, HSI +0.47%, ASX +0.15%, TWSE -0.07%, KOSPI -1.75% EUR 1.3010 (-0.25%) JPY 101.32 (-0.71%) EUR/JPY 131.82 (+0.47%) AUD 1.004 (-0.51%) NZD 0.8342 (-0.61%) Spain 10yr 4.24% Italy 10yr 3.89% US 10yr 1.85% Futures: Dow +35, Nasdaq +5, S&P +2 DXY $82.93 (+14c) Crude $95.71 (-68c) Gold $1448.00 (-$20.60) Copper -0.18% Silver -1.34% It was all about Japan again overnight as the JPY weakened > 101 for the first time in 4 years, driving the Nikkei +2.9% to new 5.5yr highs (Topix +5.0% and Nikkei +6.7% on the week, Nikkei now +40.5% ytd). SHCOMP closed +0.62% on the session and is now only -0.98% ytd. China new loan data came out after the close at 792.9B yuan vs est 755B yuan. Hong Kong Q1 GDP also out and comes in less than forecast at +0.2% q/q vs est +0.5%. AUD testing parity after the RBA cut its 2013 inflation forecast and reiterated forecast for below trend growth this year. The Kospi lagged the region -1.75% and gave back yesterday's surprise rate cut gains as exporters slumped on the won strength and Samsung closed -2.57%. European markets higher this morning across the board despite sovereign yields widening a touch and Eurozone banks underperforming on profit taking (aside from some short covering in the Italian banks ahead of Unicredit its @ 12:30 pm GMT). German exports inline with expectations at +0.5% m/m in March. G7 FinMins & Central Bankers meeting today in the UK. Bemanke is speaking this morning in Chicago. SPA's +2 handles = 1626.80 last. "*Bernanke speaks at 9:30am (Chicago), Treasury Budget @ 2pman • Priceline.com posted Q1 beat but profit forecast fell short on sovereign debt concerns (trading -2.5%) • Gap April Comp sales +7% yielded better prelim eps & profit guidance topped ests (trading +6%) • Sotheby's loss doubled (wider than ests) as auction profit margins fell & expenses rose (trading -8%) • Nvidia sales & earnings better than expected as margins strengthened but forecast bit light (trading +1%) • Carter's initiates 16c/share quarterly dividend and approved $300M share buyback plan • Stifel profit down in Q1 due to costs related to acquisitions but global wealth posted records • ABB CEO Joe Hogan leaving for personal reasons, date to be confirmed (trading -1.2%) • Drillisch Q1 profit & EBITDA rise, focus on Freenet unwind, dividend & guidance maintained (trading -1.9%) • Arcelor O1 sales inline, EBITDA beats, net debt inline, reits 2013 guidance, sees improving Q2 (trading +4.6%) EFTA00390547 • BT O1 sales slight ahead, net debt falls, good across all divisions, raising 3yr guidance (trading +11.7%) • IAG O1 op loss worse, revs inline, no op profit guidance for 2013, current trading inline (trading -3.9%) • Tui Travel H1 revs better, div increase, strong Nordic growth, strong momentum continues (trading +1.4%) • Swedish Match: spec that flavored snus will not be affected in new tobacco directive (trading +3.9%) • UK March construction output +12.1% m/m versus est +15.0% (-7.4% y/y versus est -6.6%) • India March industrial production +2.5% y/y versus estimate +2.4% and +0.6% in prior month • Vietnam to cut refinancing rate to 7.0% from 8.0% effective May 13, Sri Lanka cuts reverse repo rate • Panasonic FY net income forecast below, sales forecast light, no div projection for this year • Nissan FY net ahead, sales slight better, operating below, lowering 2014 guidance, ex div Leading European Sectors: Telco +1.64%, Healthcare +0.65%, Tech +0.60% Lagging European Sectors: Trav/Les -0.02%, Construction +0.01%, Food/Bev +0.13% RCKY declares div — BEBE quarterly div — WIFI midpt above ests CFN cuts yr rev view — MDRX sales missed — BBOX raises div CALL #'s light — UBNT eps beat — MBI $20M net loss PANL loss wider — TNGO penny better — MCP loss narrower revs beat Secondaries (announced/priced): SNTS, DSCO, APPY, FSP, TRNX, DDD, APO IPO's (filed): QEP Midstream Partners (QEPM) files for $400M IPO through Wells Fargo Securities IPO's (priced): BioAmber (BIOA) prices 8M-units at $10, Capitol Acquisition Corp II (CLACU) 18M-shares priced at $10 US Key Research: ••• Citi downgrades DNDN (sell), GS upgrades GVA, Opco initiates WDAY (op) ••• Baird downgrades LOPE, BMO initiates TEVA/ACT/AGN (op) & AGN/MYUFRX (up) ir Wells initiates ENSG (mp) & ESC (op) & upgrades BSX, Janney initiates DDD (buy) ••• UBS cuts AES, SocGen upgrades BA, Wedbush initiates ININ (neut) & JCOM/NUAN (op) ••• Johnson Rice downgrades MDR, JMP downgrades MU, Canaccord downgrades RCII ••• BB&T upgrades SRI (buy), JPM downgrades GEVA, Nat Bank cuts GSS EFTA00390548 Europe Key Research: • JPM upgrade GARAN TI and downgrade SHI LN & YKBNK TI, KBC downgrade AALB NA • UBS upgrade TL5 SM, initiate ASC LN (b), cut AIP SJ from least pref list • Barc downgrade SAP SJ, Citi initiate EVK GY (s), downgrade RTN LN, upgrade YOOX IM • BofAML upgrade BT/A LN, GS upgrade OCDO LN, CS upgrade ASHM LN & SZG GY • CS short list names: AZN LN, EN FP, CARLB DC, CNA LN, BN FP, LXS GY, RBS LN, UU/ LN, WCH GY • CS short list names: SGE LN, SBRY LN, SAND SS, SKFB SS, STAN LN, SWMA SS, SREN SW • MS downgrade GTO FP, DB initiate BAW SJ (s) and downgrade ENRC LN • HSBC initiate INCH LN (ow), uig VASTN NA, DOAS TI, WHA NA, dig EOAN GY, CORA NA, COFB BB SocGen downgrade BES PL, BA/ LN, REP SM & upgrade MGGT LN, MTX GY Reporting Pre-Open: AWR, AXAS, BECN, BTN, CDTI, DRH, EGT, ERF, ETAK, EVEP, GFI, HL, HZNP, LIWA, LMIA, LXRX, MGA, PGNX, RDNT, SIRO, STRL, TRLG, URRE, USAT, VTG, WCRX, XIN, YONG Reporting Post-Close: ADEP, ATEA, BSTC, SLW Economic Data: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement @ 2pm Fed Speakers: Evans @ 8:25am (Chicago), Bemanke @ 9:30am (Chicago), George @ 2pm (Jackson, WY) Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: SWFT, WY, CPT Non-Deal Roadshows: ADNC, AIMC, ALXN, AMRI, BUD, EPAM, FHN, MLM, OREX, PDM, QLYS, SMCI, SPG, SPRD, TRI, WPRT Shareholder Meetings: E, ANDE, ACT, CMLS, CPN, GENT, CYS, CL, CTB, GGP, HVT, MGA, VMC, WMS, BBG, MAR, ATSG, BFS, EDG, ERF, ICUI, MAT, CY, MCRI Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ACRE ($1.5B) EFTA00390549 Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Barron's WSJ cautious: Being short Telsa (TSLA) WSJ • Annan report blasts ENRC for costing Congo $725m FT • Hester vows to oversee RBS sell-off FT • Icahn proposes rival proposal to $24bn Dell buyout FT • Fannie Mae's $59bn dividend lifts hopes of US taxpayer profit FT • UK watchdog probes KPMG in fresh blow FT • Google launches YouTube subscriptions FT • Investor warns on lack of capital to develop UK infrastructure FT • Dynasty's end in sight as Bhutto family loses its grip FT • JPMorgan sued over credit card debt collecting FT • Abenomics propels yen weakness FT • Markets Insight: Europe and US lines cross on household debt ratio FT • LNG deal opens door for Texas imports to UK FT • Fannie Mae: cha-ching? Lex • Timken: metal testing Lex • Germany: for richer, for poorer Lex • UK housebuilders: raise the roof Lex • Do not blame democracy for the rise of the populists FT Comment • The time for a decision on Europe is now, not 2017 FT Comment • Yen Leaps Over Milestone WSJ • In London, an Underground Real-Estate Revolution WSJ • Japan Data Suggest Strengthening WSJ • Australia Central Bank Warns of Mining Slowdown WSJ • Bulgarians Disillusioned Ahead of Vote WSJ • Shrinking Budget Forces Army Into New Battlefield WSJ • Co-op Bank chief steps down amid downgrade The Times EFTA00390550 • Kofi Annan turns up heat on ENRC and Glencore in pursuit of Africa's lost tax The Times • RBS 'has £10bn of undisclosed loan losses', claims fund group The Times • Pension age change gave us huge savings, says Osborne The Times • Stay in the EU. It's clearly in our interests The Times Opinion • Mondelez: Looking sweet after all sorts of bust-ups Independent • The rise of designer outlets in the age of austerity Telegraph • 'Manufacturing isn't dead ... we're better than the Germans', says Pailton Engineering's John Nollett Telegraph • Britain's universities should take a lesson from the land of the free Telegraph • 100 of UK's richest people concealing billions in offshore tax havens Guardian • Labour must stand firm: no to a referendum on Europe Guardian Key Events Next Week Monday: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, China FAI/retail sales/IP, Eurozone FinMin meeting, Imperial Capital Consumer Summit (Santa Monica), Earnings (ANTH, TTWO) Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Import Price Index, Eurozone IP & ZEW survey, Bofa Global Metals & Mining Conf, Bofa Health Care Conf, Citi Energy/Utilities Conf, JPM Global TMT, UBS Global Financials, Earnings (A, XONE, CACH) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, US PPI & IP, NAHB Housing Index, Empire Manufacturing, TIC Flows, Bofa Global Transports Conf, Earnings (CSC, DE, ACAT, WAG, M, CSCO, WYY) Thursday: CPI, Philadelphia Fed, Housing Starts, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Conference (NYC), Earnings (KSS, WMT, ADSK, AMAT, ARUN, JCP, JWN, SINA) Friday: U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Leading Indicators, China April Property Prices, Earnings (BH) Key Events on the Horizon May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy June 10-14 —Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) in SF EFTA00390551 June 14 — Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST June 21 — Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close of trading July 1 — Mark Camey takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 069011 It ty]Description: Description: This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203.302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA00390552