From: Joscha Bach

From: Joscha Bach To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 17:11:21 +0000 By guessing. It seems to be a general learning problem to me; we assume an initial causal model and update approximating a Bayesian model based on observation. For instance, if I want to find out if my opponent is going to defect, I can make a model of my opponent, where I weight the influence of - their expected current and future interaction reward with me - their general principled inertia (people tend to behave consistently, partially because it makes them generally predictable, and partially because they don't want to consider everything from first principles) - how much they see me as an end-goal (like a parent sees their children, or a teacher their pupils) - how much reputation gain they expect from actual and imagined 3rd party observation - how much "virtual" reputation gain/loss they get from defecting from their own values. If one wanted to make a PED style model of this, it is probably too complex and perhaps it makes sense to simplify it to a single reputation factor. But I guess that in actual interactions, this is what we implicitly consider. > On Aug 24, 2016, at 12:58, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: > so how does one determine the matrix without knowing the internal state of the player. > On Wed, Aug 24, 2016 at 12:57 PM, Joscha Bach cfl wrote: > If the hypothetical observer is expected to dole out rewards/punishments as result of the player's actions, the player will add the expected rewards to the payoff. > Reputation can be translated into expectation of future reward, based on a cooperation/defection function of other players. > > On Aug 24, 2016, at 12:52, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: > > in a two player game what if one player BELIVES there is an observer but there is not. the payoff matrix should change. ? > -- > please note > The information contained in this communication is > confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may > constitute inside information, and is intended only for > the use of the addressee. It is the property of > JEE > Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this > communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited > and may be unlawful. If you have received this > communication in error, please notify us immediately by > return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and EFTA00820186 > destroy this communication and all copies thereof, > including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA00820187