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efta-efta01157306DOJ Data Set 9OtherFrom: GIO Group JP Morgan
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From: GIO Group JP Morgan
To: Undisclosed recipients:;
Subject: GIO Trade Alert: Shipping Containers
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2011 20:38:20 +0000
Attachments: imagc003.emz; image004.emz; GIO_Tradc_Alert_2011.02.18_(Shipping_Containers).pdf
Milne-Images: image007.png; image008.png; image009.png
Global Investment Opportunities Group (GIO)
Opportunistic Investments
February 18, 2011
!Morgan
Jeanne Sun
(212) 622-2646
panne h suniftrnixgan corn
SHIPPING CONTAINERS
We believe the shipping container space offers an attractive opportunity given the industry's strong demand and supply dynamics. While Baltic
Dry has been weak due to oversupply of ships, global trade remains strong with robust demand for end goods: US retail sales have recovered
nicely and are growing at a 5-7% pace since mid-2010 and there are similar trends in capital goods orders. This has led to a sharp recovery in
demand for shipping containers as evidenced by the 97% utilization rates for the industry. Furthermore, container supply remains tight as orders
for and production of new containers came to a halt through the downturn and production has been slow to ramp up. This year, container sup*
is only expected to increase 6% versus a replacement rate of typically 8% and companies still have to make up for the dearth of new container
production in 2010. Not helping sup* is an increase in slow steaming. a reduction in travel speeds to save on fuel, which is keeping containers
at sea for longer.
These market dynamics are gamering more attention in the news as GE recently announced they are looking to sell their GE SeaCo container
leasing business, taking advantage of increased interest in the space from both financial and strategic buyers. These leasing companies have
healthy asset bases which are benefiting from high commodity prices and tend to pay healthy dividends of 3.5%. As fundamentals are not
expected to change soon, we believe valuations will remain supported in the container space over the near and medium term. Please call your
Morgan representative to discuss investment strategies.
Mb project for demand growth to outweigh supply
chg Vol
15%
-15%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
—
Container shipping demand growth
—
Container shipping supply growth
..., .... It. .... .
%
Morgan
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This presentation and the material contained herein is not a product of the a
Morgan Research Department and is not a research report although a may refer to a research report
or research analyst. This presentation should be reviewed m conjunction with U.S. research published by I. Morgan Securities. Inc. to the extent that such research exists. The
op
ts and ideas expressed herein do not take into account indondual Client circumstances. objectives and needs. Transactions in any securities that may be referenced herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
This presentation NIS been prepared for information purposes only. Nothing n this material is mended to be a solicaatcn for any petduct or service offered by
Morgan's Private
Sank or any of its affiliates. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accept
no responsibility for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. The views and strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. This information is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial nstrument and is being provided merely to illustrate a particular investment strategy.
Container utfization is reaching maximum capacity
100%
95%
90% i
4dIP
85%
80%
75%
2006
2007
2008
—BOX
—TAL
—CAP
2010
—TGH
Past performance Is no guarantee of future results.
Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured - No Bank Guarantee
- May Lose Value
EFTA01157306
This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of
securities, accurac and corn .leteness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available
at
EFTA01157307
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