From: US GIG <[email protected]>

From: US GIG <[email protected]> To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: JPM View 05.18.2012 Date: Fri, 18 May 2012 20:49:45 +0000 Attachments: JPM_View_O5.I8.2012-pdf.zip Inline-Images: image003.png J.P.Morgan The J.P. Morgan View O8A on Greek exit risk • Asset Allocation - With little policy 'ippon before lime 17 Greek elections. there is little supporting antra nil prices Cover maiming longs in risk • Economics — Data am tracking Q2 forecasts. but the recent fall Ul. equities offsets the impact of lower oil poets The( pushes grouili risk to the downside • Fixed Income— Stay flat duranon and hold EMU hedges • Equities — Take profit on Dax OW m Europe as nth of Awning bans is mime • Credit — Wt move underweight credit. and cover our remaining longs to the GMOSprxifoho Neardemt we look fa-relative value m CDS vs equity • Foreign exchange— We use a 1.22 EURUSD fau vAlue lot Junta. 50 50 odds of pm vs anti EMI/ results in the time 17 Greek elections • Commodities — This week's start-up of the Seaway pipeline benvers the es Midwest and Gulf Coast should help °anew the Brent-V.71 Spread • Risk markets all lurched down as one gbh week and safe government bonds and the dollar all rose as one, at markets positioned for Lehmankke coots. moans& emanating from Greek election oils Unfortunate's the lime 17 date of these debt= is still a month away. and Eno palmy 'oaken do not want to give the shop away even before the elections. for few of strengthenury the hands of those who are calling for a hard renegotiation with the Troika. That means link upside news over the month and nurkets being driven by pose honing on different post election scenarios with this outlook, and equines DM flat on the all. iniportuu 6.month lookback we need to neutralise remain- ing equity and credo longs • Economic news remains broadly neutral and are tracking our Q2 telecoms Q I GDP for both Japan and the Euxo area came in better than expected at 0% and 4.1%. respectively. Forward looking indicators. including the last set of PMls. and recent falls m global equity prices. give us no reason to raise the rest of the year. but with high Q 1 . the 2012 projections automatically move up Over the post month both oil and global equities are down about 10% Funher Greek turmoil v. ould goal down again. The equity fall however. has a higher impact on ec000mm activity than the same %fall mod prices. Hence. we must now accept a Detainse ink bias on the eccoonnt outlook • Gwenthe almost exclusive focus of global markers on the evolving Greek drama. we provide below a concise Q&A onGreek EMU exit ink The box on p 2 lists a number of recent reporh from ffiblorgan analysts on this topic • Why do we care? Greek elections are having =may times the =pact that the recent slowing m Chinese growth ishaving, despite Chines economy being 30 omen larger than the Greek one. The higher impact of local shocks depends on bow they affect theworld's two main -contagion madames' — banks and od. Chas has hole negative on either. and thus the impact of as growth The certifying analyst is indicated by an u . See page 7 for analyst certification and important legal and regulatory &miens's. Global Azs•t Allocation JP Monwrthaso Bank NA J P Morgan Seaton I.M May 18.2012 Jan Loops*" (1•212) 834.5174 tart ImaYsQllimmegan cam John Normand 03-20) 7325-5222 phn normandeprnorgan corn Nlkolaos Paniglttcglou (44.20) 7777.01$6 nikolsoa pangruoglowlynapn Corn Seam, Mac Goraln 04.20) 7117-29C6 *wows macgotantiprnorson can Matthew Lehmann 7777-1620 matihes in lehrnanneprtiorgan cam Lao Evans (44.20) 7742-2537 Monad a wanstomorron corn 17D returns through lily 17 5, sown »nig,/ isar U6 MO Yokl BISCap. 30503 B03 USHOGale TOW Wet ACYkelf WO or at Winne SOX us Fuld sari Goof Ga. &nth' Eutp Ccel lwarn, Cs USDA IRSOEttwe 030TR 4 5 • s....ow...,Imaies rinse %ma al, Wan lea Imam, Mall. P•13•1511 a4.alM•a mires vernv.morganmarkets.eam This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at httplAvvAv.jpmorgan.comtpages/disclosuresiemail. EFTA01176903