From: US GIO <[email protected]>

From: US GIO <[email protected]> To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: JPM View 06.01.2012 Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2012 20:31:11 +0000 Attachments: JPM_View_06.01.2012-pdfsip Inline-Images: image003.png J.P.Morgan The J.P. Morgan View Economy now adding insult to euro injury • Awn Allocation — We are net shod risk through UWs of the euro and Cyclwals Retain OW of Us and EM Asia stocks. Fund nsk assets at emus. Prefer credit over equities and axamodities Retain longs in gold • Economaci —Growth momentum has tined negative. Both EMAssa said US fracases have been cut after disappointang PMIs and jobs data. • Fixed Income — Path of least resistance is stall to wider intra•EMLI spends • Equities — Stay keg US vs two equine', despite weak US gobs. as we have not yet seen the MI impact of tbe escalating ono cows on economic data • Credit — We move to OW EMS Sovereigns vs. EM Corporates and Neutral European Senior Financials. • Foreign exchange — Stay dean EUPAISD, GBP/USD and EURICHE • Commodities — We remain neutral and prefer spread trades. Our highest conviction of thew are ..1.011 corn vs natural gas and long corn vs live cattle • As if Etro MCM011 and indecision were not enough to push down ink assets. now COMM renewed doubt about world growth Our Global Manufactunng Phil today fell back to a ;tut above Decent/wt. which was the lowest point since the meession. Om economists have cut theft 2012 and 2013 global growth projections to 2.1e. and 2.4°. Bus week. doe to downgrades in the US. Brant and EM Aua followmg cuts in the Euro arta last week (chant p 2 mad tabkp 6). Both are down 0.2% from 2 weeks apo and are below potential • Much as we would like to see the double-digit fall no stocks from the March Y7D peak as the bottom in the conection. the near-term Mayers OW appear to be pointing downwards for risk emit. Value and risk menua have pone from cheap lo very cheap. but have not been not good wiling wends Both price and ec000rnoc momentum are now negative We do not see evidence of capitulation. with MOSS tactical investors having moved to OCUtlal on equities and credo. but not yet to short And the policy cavalry does not seem m a hung to nde to the resole mom opinion. assuming they have not run our of annranation • Is the geometria( slowdown wmpotaty, or the beginning of a downwind slide? The lack of a single smoking pal for recent weakness argues for It-infancy. in particular as it has come with a draniatic fall in oil price, that will support co:wampum) We are thus taking a middle road that secs higher ?mull rale, Ul CCSIIMC citcUlers born the 10u In ()...! but that unlv renew to the 2 5% pace of Qi by Qi of next Veal Goa spells Anglin war al below potentul growth that should depress inflation and Mali:Cr renew el moncian. easing We pencil m a GETSvist extension m the UR and the t25 • Our unpression from position data and investor discussion; is that tactical investors have been switching from long to neutral on equine; and conunodi- bet, while retaumte some credit lone. Corporate bonds hove outperformed (chart p 1) as the unpuct of wader spreads has been offset bor lower made:Buis The certifyang analyst is indicated by an ac. See page 7 for analyst CeItsfiCISIO0 and imponant legal and regulatory disclosures GlobalAaa.t Allocation J tenon Gioia Bank NA JP Mayan Seosales Lid Art1.2012 Jan LOWE,' (1212) 03441374 PribarsillFen•Ban Cora Jelin Brand µ42g) 7325-5222 icon ncernandesenoirian con Nikolaus PantaktOglOu bia•20) 77774305 Molnar pangetrogloottenoillae can Seamus Man GOraln (44 20) 7777 2935 urn nucgoraniparentesun can Mellinier Liebmann 04201 7777•1830 minnow m lotunannawenOesslin nor Lao Evans (4420) 77422537 Monad a ovanigarperegrom sem `aft returns through nay 11 IL sew a• Si Iry met lialenell BOO* SWAG USI*Gione BDaa NEGEV fail Co Omar USO AC ids•C US Sam1mm OA Swat gator foxes row wcate US cmh Tone Ell FX God WO' Bore OSO 4i 4 e S See (naves M. S. nm. . tine (am Asses as= bossed •ass am Owes ma WM sr MOO ene we Mirka to h• kw.. www.morganmarkeits.com • This email n<oandennal and whoa le sarenata disclainlen and condition including oa offers lor the purchase at sole or sommiex a:gamy and compkwacss or infonmaina. imases.eentlaknualin. lepl pmik-ge. and legal allay &scissions. oublate at top.eivungeocripowmpagesdiscicntrevemail. EFTA01177346