Case File
efta-efta01187645DOJ Data Set 9OtherBad fundamental conditions:
Date
Unknown
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DOJ Data Set 9
Reference
efta-efta01187645
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1
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0
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Bad fundamental conditions:
1. Current account deficit larger than 3% of GDP
2. Fiscal deficit larger than 3.5% of GDP
3. Unemployment higher than 6%
4. US Manufacturing PMI below 45
5. Inflation higher than 4%
1 year S&P 500 returns, 1948-2012
Investment
# of Bad
Scenario
Conditions
Average
Max
Min
Std
#obs
Going to hell
> = 3
19%
59%
-19%
16%
110
Life is fine
None
15%
48%
-16%
14%
231
Not so bad
Only 1
7%
47%
-40%
18%
258
EFTA01187645
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