Case File
efta-efta01192826DOJ Data Set 9OtherDeutsche Bank
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DOJ Data Set 9
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efta-efta01192826
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Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Rating
Buy
North America
United States
Health Care
Biotechnology
Company
Retrophin lieuter,
Wveramrty
Lxc•.mge Ticker
RTRX.00
RTRX US
NMS
RTRX
Agrees to sell PRV for $245M, new TP of $52
Retrophin agrees to sell its PRV to SNY for $245M• new TP of $52
This morning RTRX announced that it plans to sell the rare pediatric priority
review voucher acquired with the approval of Cholbam to Sanofi for $245M.
The company will receive $150M when the deal closes (no timing was
provided by the company; we assume at some point during 3Q15), and two
additional payments of $47.5M in 2016 and 2017. The company has previously
disclosed that it plans to use the proceeds for its late-stage pipeline and/or for
business development. We are raising our TP to $52 to account for the
transaction. Reiterate BUY.
Prior vouchers sold for $67.5M and 5125M.
This is the highest price paid for a voucher to our knowledge and
demonstrates their scarcity. We note that UTHR is the only other company to
have one of these vouchers in its possession.
The company sold the voucher for $145M over our projected sale price of
$100M. A sale of $100M was worth approx $1.4/sh to our DCF. The additional
$145M is approx $2/sh to our DCF.
Reiterate BUY, new TP of $52. Valuation and risks:
We value RTRX using a probability-adjusted DCF analysis with a 10% discount
rate. We extend our estimates to 2029 and use a 2% terminal growth rate.
Risks: 1) Base business sales risk, 2) Sparsentan / other pipeline products fail,
3) Regulatory risk, and 4) Reimbursement risk.
Date
27 May 2015
Breaking News
r4
Price at 26 May 2015 (USD/
26.87
Price target
52.00
52-week range
26.98 - 8.09
Robyn Karnauskas
Research Anal t
Even Seigerman
Research Associate
Mohit Banal
Research Associate
I Key changes
Price target
EPS (USD}
&KAM &MOM. BIM
50.00 to 52.00
0.96 to 1.65 1
4.0%
71.5%
I Price/price relative
—
-
54P 60) Mt% IRebeeedl
Performance (GM
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
8.6
80.3
95.7
S&P 500 INDEX
-0.6
-0.3
10.7
&vett Dived...O&M
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015.
EFTA01192826
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
Model updated:27 May 2015
Running the numbers
North America
United States
Biotechnology
I Retrophin
Reuters: RTFOCOO
Bloomberg: RTRX US
IBuv
Price 126 May 15)
Target Price
52 Week range
Market Cap fm)
USD 26.87
USD 52.00
USD 8.09 - 26.98
USOm 949
EURm 871
Company Profile
Retrophin is a biophammasutical company focused on discoverMg,
develocMg and marketing innovative therapies for debilitating and often Me-threatening
diseases.
I Price Performance
20
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Dec 12
Jun 13
Dec 13
Jun 14
Dec 14
Reeerem
SW 600 111a€X late n.
I Margin Trends
14
16E
166
17E
~
FERO. Mina ~EXIT Marais
Growth & Profitability
200
160
100
60
0
sass ammar Had,
~
ROE Ota0
so
40
30
20
10
0
Solvency
0
-zo
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-CO
.90
-100
-120
-140 111
14
156
166
176 clabibissty 0-XSI ~Ns entreat cow" iRXS"
Robyn Kamauskas
•1 212 260-7591
Fiscal year end 31-Dec
[Financial Summary
08 EPS (1.150)
Repatod EPSIUSD)
CPS IUSDI
BVPS (USDI
[Valuation Metrics
Price/Sales (x)
PPE IDB)Ixl
PPE (Reported) 00
WEN lx1
FCF yield I%)
Dividend yield t%}
EV/Sales
EWEBITDA
EWEBIT
[Income Statement (USDm)
Sales
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€BIT
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[Cash Flow (USDm)
Cash flow from operations
Not Capes
Free cash flow
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Dividends paid
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Not cash flow
Change in worldly cooks!
[Balance Sheet (USDm)
Cash and cash equivalents
Property, plan 8 equipment
Goodwill
Other assets
Toted assets
Debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Total shareholders equity
Nee debt
[Key Company Metrics
Sales growth 0%)
08 EPS growth PM
Payout ratio OS/
EBITDA Margin 041
€BIT Marge, I%4
ROE I%)
Not debt/equity PM
Not interest cover Ix)
[DuPont Analysis
€BIT margin 6%) x Asset tutova 120 x Fmanciel cost ratio ix)
x Tax and other effects 00
▪ ROA (post tax") x Fmanciel leverage (xl
▪ ROE 1%) annual growth 1%) x NTAfthare lavg) Ix)
▪ Reported EPS annual growth f%)
2014
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27
Page 2
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01192827
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
RTRX DCF
I Figure 1: RTRX DCF
8 BIOTECH: RETROPHIN DCF
12.250.7591.
DCF = $52
DB BIOTECH: RTRX- DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ins In nowt
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1
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 3
EFTA01192828
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
RTRX P&L
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Page 4
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01192829
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
Disclosure checklist
Company
Ticker
Recent price'
Disclosure
Retrophin
RTRX.OQ
26.87 (USD) 26 May 15
1,6,7,8,9
•prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters. Bloomberg and other vendors . Other
reformation is sourced from Deutsche Dank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaineg to recommendations or estimates made on scarifies other than the
primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure lookup page on our website at
httpfigrn.db.comigeddisclosuro/DisclosureDirectomodsr.
Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators
Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.
See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.
1.
Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering
for this company, for which it received fees.
6.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this
company calculated under computational methods required by US law.
7.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment
banking or financial advisory services within the past year.
8.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services from this company in the next three months.
Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators
Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.
1.
Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering
for this company, for which it received fees.
6.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this
company calculated under computational methods required by US law.
7.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment
banking or financial advisory services within the past year.
9.
Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this
company calculated under computational methods required by India law.
For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our
website at tiffp://qm.db.com/ger/disclosure/Disclosure.eqsr?ricCode=RTRX.OQ
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the
subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive
any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Robyn Kamauskas
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 5
EFTA01192830
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
I Historical recommendations and target price: Retrophin (RTRX.OO)
/as of 5/26/20151
30.00
26.00
20.00
8
16.00
10.00
6.00
0.00
Dec 12
Mar 13
Jun 13
Sep 13
Dec 13
6%14
Jun 14
1.
0408/2015:
Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00
Sep 14
Dec. 14
Ma; 16
Previous Recommendations
Strong Buy
Buy
Market Perform
Underperform
Not Rated
Suspended Rating
Corrnnt Reenmmenrintinr6
Buy
Hold
Sell
Not Rated
Suspended Rating
'Now Recommendation Structure as of September 9,2002
Equity rating key
Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in
share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that
investors buy the stock.
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the
stock
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not
recommend either a Buy or Sell.
Notes:
1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published
research.
2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period
Hold:
Expected
total return
(including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12month period
Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period
Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships
600
5420
4C0
3420
2C0
ICO
0
Buy
Hold
Sell
•Companlee Covered •Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
North American Universe
Page 6
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01192831
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
Regulatory Disclosures
1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures
Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at
under the
"Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.
2.Short-Term Trade Ideas
Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are
consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the
SOLAR link at http://qm.db.com.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 7
EFTA01192832
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
Additional Information
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively
"Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources
believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own
account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within
Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those
taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,
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other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and in some cases, other parties.
Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise
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loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the
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macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation
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FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates - these are common in emerging markets. It is important to note that the
index fixings may -- by construction -- lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended
to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon
rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. It is
also important to acknowledge that funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are
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the risks related
to
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Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk.
The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for use by investors is dependent on the investors' own
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liabilities, and as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar
Page 8
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01192833
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin
to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can
be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be
incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable
for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized
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website please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document.
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affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the
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SIPC. Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated and therefore may not
be subject to FINRA regulations conceming communications with subject company, public appearances and securities
held by the analysts.
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Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority.
United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester
House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the
Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial
Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation are available on request.
Hong Kong: Distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch.
Korea:
Distributed
by
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Securities
Korea
Co.
South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register
Number
in
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Singapore: by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (One Raffles
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instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA,
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and/or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 9
EFTA01192834
27 May 2015
Biotechnology
Retrophin and/or services, customers should carefully read the relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation.
"Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan
unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not
written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI.
Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and
Exchange
Law
of
Japan.
Malaysia: Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may
from time to time offer those securities for purchase or may have an interest to purchase such securities. Deutsche Bank
may engage
in
transactions
in
a
manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein.
Qatar. Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre
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West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related
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District,
P.O.
Box
301809,
Faisaliah
Tower
-
17th
Floor,
11372
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Saudi
Arabia.
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refer
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Please cite source when quoting.
Copyright O 2015 Deutsche Bank AG
Page 10
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01192835
David Folkerts-Landau
Group Chief Economist
Member of the Group Executive Committee
Raj Hindocha
Global Chief Operating Officer
Research
Marcel Cassard
Global Head
FICC Research & Global Macro Economics
Richard Smith and Steve Pollard
Co-Global Heads
Equity Research
Michael Spencer
Regional Head
Asia Pacific Research
International locations
Ralf Hoffmann
Regional Head
Deutsche Bank Research, Germany
Andreas Neubauer
Regional Head
Equity Research, Germany
Stave Pollard
Regional Head
Americas Research
Deutsche Bank AG
[repeated 3 times]
Deutsche Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank Place
GroBe Gallusstralle 10-14
AliaN Hongkong
2-11-1 Nagatacho
Level 16
60272 Frankfurt am Main
International Commerce Centre,
Sanno Park Tower
Corner of Hunter & Phillip Streets
Germany
1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171
Sydney, NSW 2000
Tel: I49) 69 910 00
Hong Kong
Japan
Australia
Tel: (852) 2203 8888
Tel: (81) 3 5156 6770
Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234
Deutsche Bank AG London
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc
1 Great Winchester Street
60 Wall Street
London EC2N 2EO
New York, NY 10005
United Kingdom
United States of America
Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000
Tel: I11 212 250 2500
EFTA01192836
Technical Artifacts (22)
View in Artifacts BrowserEmail addresses, URLs, phone numbers, and other technical indicators extracted from this document.
Phone
(531
1541Phone
(541
1541Phone
(852) 2203Phone
+65 6423 8001Phone
1 212 250 2500Phone
1 212 260-7591Phone
1.612
5751Phone
1275
1375Phone
1541
(541
1531Phone
214
5279Phone
250.7591Phone
258 1234Phone
366
5373Phone
4006063Phone
510
553
1544Phone
545 8000Phone
550
5207Phone
600
5420Phone
975
975
1075URL
http://qm.db.comWire Ref
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