EFTA Document EFTA01387383

9 January 2016 FX Blueprint [Figure 45: AUD/NZD already low vs history, but the Figure 46: Notwithstanding some recent convergence. relative strength of the labour markets says that's fair households are still more upbeat in NZ than Australia I 17 r Auomzoirdsmcionamtb —AuerNZ omtnirmant-neulano, Tao Ern) 1.15 it —AUDINZDOM. 1.13 109 1.07 92 95 Se 01 01 07 10 13 16 Sawa Asx tibretbry Mena to 0140w &int 1 45 1.40 1.35 1 30 1 25 1/0 1.15 1 10 1.05 1.00 095 1 ".._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._._.._.._.._.... Figure 47: AUD/NZD fair vs rates. but the market looks too hawkish on the RBA and too dovish on the BENZ 02 0.1 00 -0.1 -0.2 -0 3 -0 4 -0 5 -0 6 -0 7 DU AUDEN/Dann rate dtkranbals - Re:RV! f8O33 - 900 OEM al Cr K230 in 12m Ms —Al404420 vasi Fe0-16 A00-16 Fenl Au0-17 Sown tioomberg Rana LA! Dana* Sink 119a, 20bp Performance of Australlri ennseyrrert ava 1 14 120 qt nifleffnalV1WhOOWEI Savo of foot-Eno vt-we em(lonnat beg (=eclat -ons 120 — Shin of mere"; 'oll • ondernom onveboe 0 15% mom 100 100 112 CO 80 1 10 60 60 1 OS 40 40 108 20 1 04 0 !- A. JO 1 02 03 05 07 CO 11 13 15 17 Feb-18 3 0 from sae 2 0 • I -2 COUSLITISt elinemenr -Annelle -NZ 04 06 08 10 12 14 IS 18 Sane tom atoomenra Anna Li! Osumi* ant 13 1 2 0 -2 -3 F ._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._.._..._ Figure 48: Australian labour market data has been exceptionally strong - some normalization may corn j sou-max elownon Finny* ll?DtatICIM Figure 49: Relative commodity prices argue for a lower Figure 50: On our preferred 0Beer valuation metric, AUD/NZD 125 [goo 115 !OS 55 25 14 15 AU13/122D and cafmoary antes iiO' at v3 dairy LOCO 111193 • --A110/3.20 3113) 10 Sam. Soren *snail! Pun* Sank 18 AUDINZ0 is quite expensive relative to history 20 AUDitaDvaksolionnisekovesnthe Dew 20 20 ! ' 5 15 1 15 10 1 10 4 5 o -5 -5 •io 4 •is 1 45 1 00 -20 -20 Deutsche Bank AG/London 96 98 CO 02 04 os ye to 12 12 10 IS Source —, Once Oink Page 21 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089895 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236079 EFTA01387383