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efta-efta01388586DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01388586
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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Table Of Contents
REIT 3Q16 preview
3
Set up into 3Q better than it's been in a long time
3
...but catalysts remain elusive
4
Data Centers remain our favorite property type
4
Strip REIT valuations looking better, but Sports Authority optics could be a
challenge
5
Slowing trends expected in the Apartments, Malls, and Office sectors...
5
...Healthcare fundamentals healthy, but investment volumes remain soft
5
3Q16 earnings call schedule
6
REIT outlook
7
Macro outlook calling for sub 2.0% GDP growth and continued low yields
7
CRE fundamental slowing, but still growing
Pricing in the private markets proving resilient
9
Unsecured markets remain healthy
10
DB REIT coverage trading at a 7.1% discount to consensus NAV meaningfully
below the 5.0% premium seen in July
11
Rising yields weighing on REIT stocks
12
REIT performance trends
13
DB REIT coverage returns
13
Index level performance
14
Sector Previews
15
Apartment: Slowing job growth and new supply continue to impede rent
growth
15
Malls: Rising demand headwinds and slowing SS NOI growth expected
22
Shopping Centers: Store closures to hit 3Q internal growth, but progress for re-
tenanting more important
27
Office: Valuations remain attractive, but specter of recession remains an
overhang
37
Data Centers: Measuring growth in years not quarters
43
Industrial: Fundamentals remain solid, backed by e-commerce and retail
demand
47
Healthcare: Rents continue upward climb as primary markets mostly shrug off
new supply
49
Summary of ratings and estimate changes
54
Valuation and risks
56
DB REIT comp sheet
57
Page 2
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0092222
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00238406
EFTA01388586
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