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efta-efta01388613DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01388613
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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3016 Earnings Preview
CONE
toccata itatamsnt (So Mara eacestfaysaates
GAAP Revenue
Actusted EBITDA
Agusted EBITDA margin
FR)/sh rxernshzed
Operating Metrics (iaCala Ogled pee shape)
GNAT' rent annueleed iSrnm1
MW signed
RenV1CW/Month
Quarterly churn rate
Note consensus estimates are based on Thomson compled date as of 10/14/16
•
Expectations are elevated fol owing 3 back-to-back quarters of strong leasing. Update on the size of the leasing
pipeline
•
Recent changes in conversations with enterprise and public cloud players
•
Pricing, yield and construction cost trends
•
Fundamentals in key markets, specifically in NOVA Houston. Dallas, and Phoenix
•
Construction plans in the Pacific Northwest and NOVA following land purchases. CONE recently acquired 29
acres in the Phoenix metro while highlighting Santa Clara as an area of focus
•
Leasing activity at the CME property in Chicago
•
Expansion plans in 2016 for new markets, and potential for additional acquisitions
•
Impact from weakness in the energy industry on CONE's oil and gas tenants
•
We are updating estimates to reflect our expectation of an earlier exercise of the forward equity sales offering in
2017 and a modest reduction in rent commencements in 2017. Our 2016 estimates are unchanged. For 2017,
our core FFO/sh estimate moves to $2.95 from $3.01, NAREIT FFO moves to $2.71 from $2.77, FAD moves to
$2.90 from $2.97, and EBITDA moves to $337.7MM from $345.8MM. Please see Figure 98 for a summary of
our estimate revisions
3015
Actual
5111 2
569 0
53 1%
S057
Actual
51211
2016
Actual
$1301
569 4
53 3%
$067
Actual
557 19
40 0
48
521083
$119 15
07%
2 7%
3016
rte.
$1W 6
571 2
521%
$0 64
Actual
Cons
5136 I
S69 3
51 0%
5062
DM
ANS
2 5%
2016
Pra 30 On
Post 30 On
DR.
Con
$520. 5530
5525 2
5526 7
5270. 5280
$275 3
52750
524%
522%
52.50- 52 58
$2 56
5256
Po 30 GIS
Post 30 Gait
DON
•
We are lowering our target price to $59 from $60 as a result of our estimate revisions. Our target multiple are
unchanged (17.4x EBITDA and 19.1x FAD). Please see Figure 97 for details on our target price
Sara Danci* an comearry dam. Mormon
Page 44
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0092264
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00238448
EFTA01388613
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