EFTA Document EFTA02120424

From: Ike Groff Sent Tue 11/26/2013 10:52:49 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.26.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-50 bps (IBEX +0.33%) ... NKY -0.67%, SHCOMP -0.14%, HSI - 0.01%, KOSPI +0.33%, TWSE +0.74%, ASX +0.08% EUR 1.3543 (+0.19%) JPY 101.41 (+0.26%) EUR/JPY 137.34 (-0.06%) AUD 0.9146 (-0.17%) NZD 0.8208 (-0.01%) US 10yr 2.72% Japan 10yr 0.62% Germany 10yr 1.71% Portugal 10yr 5.88% Italy 10yr 4.06% Spain 10yr 4.14% Futures: Dow -9, Nasdaq unch, S&P -0 DXY $80.75 (-17c) Crude $94.54 (+45c) Gold $1251.10 (+59.50) Copper +0.05% Silver +1.07% Nat Gas +1.06% Asian markets were mixed overnight on light volumes (despite the MSCI rebalance) with few catalysts ahead of Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Japan took a breather from recent strength as the yen finned up a bit after nearly touching 102 yesterday (low of 101.34 intra-day). LINE related names (social networking & communication service app in Japan) were in focus on reports that it has more than 300m subscribers and is targeting 500m users in 2014 (Adways +22.2%, Netyear +24.9%) as well as Chiyoda (+2.6%) and Fujifilm (+4.3%) on broker upgrades. In Korea, the KOSPI bottomed out early to grind higher into the close as foreign and ►ocal institution's continued yesterday's buying — tech led gains on Black Friday hopes with focus on Samsung and Hynix (both +1%). Taiwan tech names also got a boost ahead of Black Friday and TSMC (+2.5%) after BofA reit BUY. China fluctuated between gains and losses with the focus back on Free Trade Zone names and SOE's after the local press said that the government may issue an SOE reform plan as soon as early as December. European markets consolidating and generally off 0-50 bps. Some M&A in healthcare with Bayer in early talks to buy cancer partner Algeta for 336 NOK per share = 27% premium to last sale (stock is currently trading above deal price to 344 NOK last +30%). The other news worth noting is Remy Cointreau trading -10.6% after issuing a big profit warning driven by weak cognac sales in China (FY 2014 EBIT could fall by -20% or more). Note the MSCI reweight on the close today (top 10 buys in Europe as % ADV: RRTL GY, FR FP, SKYD GY, DLG LN, PSM GY, ALU FP, MAP SM, TDC DC, ZOT SM, 1LD FP) (top 10 sells in Europe as % ADV: BCVN SW, RWE3 GY, VER AV, RATOB SS, KESBV FH, HTO GA, ANA SM, VED LN, OPAP GA, AGS BB) (call for full details). In the US we will get the CaseShiller housing data as well as the Richmond Fed Consumer Index, along with some more retail earnings before the opening bell. SPA's — flat = 1802.80 last. EFTA_R1_00753777 EFTA02120424 ***SPCS Home Price Index i 9am, Richmond Fed Consumer Index © 10ams" ***HRL, PLL, TIF, MOV, SIG, BKS, CBRL, CHS, CTRN, FRED, JASO, PLCE Ws pre-open"' ***ADI, HPQ, GAME, TWO, TLYS, ZLC earnings after close"' • Palo Alto Networks loss widened but epslrevs beat & strong growth in subscription service (trading +6%) • Workday strong quarter as net loss beat on billings upside & O4 revenue forecast topped (trading +9%) • Illinois Tool Works industrial packaging segment could fetch — $3B (6+ PE firms interested) (Reuters) • Jones Energy to acquire producing & undeveloped oil & gas assets in Anadarko basin for $195M • Algeta receives preliminary approach from Bayer of 336 NOK per share = 27% premium (trading +30%) • Remy H1 revs inline, EBIT light y/y, EPS beats, very cautious outlook, H2 to underperform (trading - 10.6%) • Repsol considering Spainish/Argentine brokered compensation proposal for YPF SA stake (trading +4.0%) • Rexel organic sales set to outperform, will continue to operate strong FCF (trading -0.10%) • SolarWorld to acquire Robert Bosch's solar energy business: financial details were not disclosed (trading +2.5%) • Ashmore FD stepping down to pursue other opportunities, replacement seen as strong (trading +0.50%) • Golden Ocean Q3 revs beat, EBITDA ahead, EBIT better, adopts more cautious acquisition strategy (trading +4.1%) • Topp Tiles revs inline, adj profit fine, EPS miss, LFL's +7.4%, small store format to trial in Q2 (trading +4.9%) • Greencore FY revs inline, op profit fine, adj EPS +13%, steady improvement in conditions, upbeat outlook (trading +1.1%) • Mitchells & Butlers FY net beats, LFL's weak, focus on turnaround, broker upgrade (trading +6.1%) • Breedon trading update: sees FY pretax ahead, sales volumes good, positive outlook (trading +3.6%) • Hugo Boss postpones 25% EBITDA margin target on higher marketing spend, revises mid-term outlook (trading -3.4%) EFTA_R1_00753778 EFTA02120425 • Assura Group Q2 underlying op profit improves, total rent solid, net rental income ahead (trading +2.6%) • Paragon FY profit beats on lower tax, well placed further growth, banking licence application progressing (trading +0.40%) • Britvic FY EBIT beats, op profit to be top end, current trading slightly ahead, challenging environment (trading +3.7%) • Severn Trent H1 revs improving, adj pretax down y/y, interim div good, on track to meet FY targets (trading -2.2%) • De La Rue H1 revs fall, cost cuts on target, rising op profit in "challenging" conditions, div unch, broker ulg (trading +9.7%) • Geox strong again post road show highlighting industrial plan sales growth & profitability potential (trading +7.6%) • Faiveley Q2 order intake solid, margin pressures starting to show questioning guidance (trading - 7.4%) • Bekaert: Milano Finanza reports company made a bid (sub €250mn) for Pirelli's steel division (trading -0.90%) Leading European Sectors: Real Estate +0.12%, Trav/Les +0.07%, Tech +0.06% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -1.29%, Food/Bev -1.17%, Healthcare -0.60% VNET missed ests — AXE special $5/shr div — DY rev outlook light NUAN rev forecast lower — PWRD revs better — UNXL reiterates pacts Secondaries (announced/priced): BITA, PFMT, ATAX, BAMNB NA IPO's (lock-up expires): Epizyme (EPZM) US Key Research: Barcap upgrades FEYE & downgrades TRAK & initiates TEGITCS (ew) and SPNS (ow) • CRT initiates HTWR/SPNC (buy) & EW (fair value) & ISRG (sell), Janney initiates IFF (buy) & cuts FRAN GS upgrades DHR (buy) & downgrades WAT/TFM/FCX, Piper upgrades FRX, Citi upgrades ALV EFTA_R1_00753779 EFTA02120426 • Jefferies initiates MNK/HAE (buy) & TCS (hold), Imperial downgrades OME, Wells initiates TCS (op) RBC initiates BDBD/BF.B/BNNY/CCE/CUEUENR/GIS/HAIN/HSY/KO/HAIN/KO/KRFT/MNST/MO/NWUSTZ (op) • RBC initiates AVP/BEAM/BGS/CAG/CHD/CLX/COT/CPB/DPS/K/MSLZ/PEP/PF/PG/RAI/SAM (sp) • B. Riley downgrades LIOX & initiates MPX (neut) and WMAR (buy), Macquarie upgrades BTU Europe Key Research: • BofAML downgrade ICP LN, GLEN LN, upgrade LMI LN, Lampe initiate YMI GY (b) • Bere downgrade LUX IM, Cant downgrade TPT LN, Citi upgrade SUN SW, GEO IM ▪ CBK upgrade MEO GY, GS remove SZU GY from cony sell, JP downgrade THE SM, MAB LN MAQ upgrade STAN LN, Medio upgrade EFGN SW, Natixis downgrade FUR NA Investec upgrade DLAR LN, DNB upgrade VOLVB SS, SONG NO, Panm upgrade DLAR LN • RBC downgrade MGGT LN, upgrade SAF FP, SEB initiate ACANB SS (h) • SocGen upgrade ASML NA, UBS upgrade ALGETA NO, downgrade SDA1V FH Reporting Pre-Open: HRL, PLL, TIF, AMWD, BECN, BKS, BWS, CBRL, CHS, CTRN, DSW, EV, FRED, ISS, JASO, LG, MOV, NPD, OTIV, PLCE, SBLK, SIG Reporting Post-Close: ADI, HPQ, ALOT, AVAV, BAMM, BLOX, GAME, QADB, TIVO, TLYS, ZLC Economic Data: Building Permits @ 8:30am, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index @ 9am, Richmond Fed Consumer Index c 10am API crude oil inventories @ 4:30pm Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: N/A EFTA_R1_00753780 EFTA02120427 Non-Deal Roadshows: BBY, CRR, CSU, DEST, FULT, SSW, SUSO Shareholder Meetings: ORIT, BOLT, DAR, DY, BSQR, PROV, HPOL Equity/Mixed Shelfs: RBCN ($60M), ACLS ($75M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Blackberry (BBRY) WSJ • Pressure builds for tougher UK bank reform FT • EU accuses US of improperly trawling citizens' online data FT • Top Nasdaq executive quits for ConvergEx FT • Former INTO head urges reform of global body Fr • Europe unveils crackdown on cross-border tax 'hybrid' schemes' FT • Policy makers must refresh SME approach FT • The Gen Y revolution that may never come FT • Obama faces tough test in fending off new Iran sanctions FT • Cameron must reclaim his party from the rationalists FT • Iranian oil: Persian reversion Lex • Peugeot: more questions than answers Lex • RBS: the bank that will have to say yes Lex • Samsung: Too big for its bourse Lex • White House Launches Push to Sell Its Iran Nuclear Deal WSJ • German Parties Work to Hammer Out Deal WSJ EFTA_R1_00753781 EFTA02120428 • Inside the Breakup of the Pritzker Empire WSJ • Russian Government Mulls Helping Refinance Debts of Metals, Mining Giants WSJ • Investors Finally Get a Closer Look Into China's Bad Bank WSJ • The J.P. Morgan Settlement: Misconceptions Debunked WSJ • Departure Blurs Nasdaq Succession WSJ • 'Golden Leash' Payments Fuel Debate WSJ • Qualcomm Faces Probe in China Tied to Antimonopoly Law WSJ • The Dirty Secret of Black Friday 'Discounts' WSJ • A Debate Over Paying Board Nominees of Activist Funds NYT • Render Unto Caesar, but Who Backs the Bitcoin? NYT • Sixfold rise in profits fuels anger at energy companies The Times • Cutting debt is still priority for companies and families The Times • China in Numbers: Children pay deadly price for attitude to car seats The Times • OUTLOOK: RSB sending SMEs to the wall? Surely this can't pass without a break-up Independent • Bulgarian and Romanian migrants 'will help economy' Telegraph • Anti-business posturing is destroying Britain's still fragile economic recovery Telegraph • Google chief predicts Chinese liberal reforms driven by web Telegraph • Developers pull the plug on one of the world's largest offshore windfarms Telegraph • France to send more troops in Central African Republic as country 'descends into chaos' Telegraph • Scotland could refuse to accept UK liabilities if currency union is blocked Guardian • The Iranian deal is truly historic — but not because it resolves nuclear crisis CitvAM • The new Age of Intervention risks hurting the very people it seeks to help CityAM Key Events This Week Wednesday: Italy Senate to vote on expelling Berlusconi from Parliament, New Home Sales, Mortgage Applications, U. of Michigan Confidence, Leading Indicators, China October Industrial Profits, Earnings (ATV, RENN) EFTA_R1_00753782 EFTA02120429 Thursday: Thanksgiving (US market closed), BOE Financial Stability Report, Germany CPI, Eurozone confidence Friday: US markets close early 1pm, ISM Milwaukee, JCP removed from SP500, EU banks face 11129 deadline to submit data to ECB for current risk assessments, Earnings (FRO) Saturday: China November manufacturing PMI Sunday: China November HSBC manufacturing PMI Key Events on the Horizon Dec 4 — OPEC meets in Vienna Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Dec 13 — Congress budget deal deadline Dec 18 - FOMC rate decision Jan 15 — Current CR runs out Jan 21 — State of the Union Address Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for — 1 month past this date) EFTA_R1_00753783 EFTA02120430 ' ton Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 I lit : This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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