EFTA Document EFTA02123897

From: Sent: Mon 10/28/2013 9:53:32 AM Subject: Early Tour 10.28.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 0-55 bps (PSI +1.0%, CAC -0.24%, IBEX -0.12%) NKY +2.19%, SHCOMP +0.04%, HSI +0.48%, KOSPI +0.68%, TWSE +0.73%, ASX +1.02% EUR 1.3813 (+0.08%) JPY 97.68 (-0.26%) EUR/JPY 134.91 (+0.33%) NZD 0.8322 (+0.51%) AUD 0.9618 (+0.36%) US 10yr 2.52% Japan 10yr 0.62% Germany 10yr 1.76% Portugal 10yr 6.17% Italy 10yr 4.22% Spain 10yr 4.14% Futures: Dow +44, Nasdaq +12, S&P +4 DXY $79.19 (-1c) Crude $97.95 (+10c) Gold $1352.70 (+20c) Copper +0.44% Silver +0.14% Asian markets were mainly higher overnight, following the US on Friday. Japan led the region as the Nikkei made up almost all of Friday's losses as a weaker Yen helped exporters. Volumes were light ahead of an onslaught of earnings due this week which began after the close. In Australia, the ASX200 broke through 5,400 and hit new highs for the year as the banks drove gains ahead of results this week. In China, the SHCOMP managed to close in the green, rebounding off the lows as energy and insurance names drove gains following results. Expectations of a reverse repo tomorrow also helped god tier bank names. Earnings releases will continue to pick up this week. European markets opened higher across the board but have faded off the morning highs with the UK now only up small on the day and France & Spain in negative territory. Cash volumes tracking around 85% of 3m average. IHG the worst performer in the FTSE100 after Q3 US RevPar growth comes in below expectations. Autos also underperforming after JPM cut the sector to neutral from overweight. Note that clocks in Europe fell back one hour over the weekend so London is only EST+4 this week until US clocks adjust this Saturday night. AAPL earnings out after the close today. SPA's +4 handles = 1758 last. "industrial Production @ 9:15am, Pending Home Sales t 10am, Dallas Fed CD 10:30amm "'BBB, EW, L, MRK reporting pre-open / AAPL, STX, HLF, LINE reporting after close*" • JPM agrees to pay $5.1 billion to settle mortgage claims with FHFA over Fannie & Freddie EFTA_R1_00759744 EFTA02123897 • Intercontinental Hotels Q3 US RevPar growth +3.5% = touch light (Sep weak at +1.6%) (trading - 2.1%) • Assa Abloy O3 net income inline, revs & EBIT slight ahead, solid outlook, restructuring program (trading +4.0%) • Aggreko O3 IMS, underlying revs & trading margins slightly ahead, maintains profit outlook (trading +2.9%) • TNT Express Q3 revs inline, EBIT better, net income drops, economy remains uncertain (trading +3.9%) • DIA Q3 net income beats, EBITDA ahead, on track to meet 2012-15 EPS growth targets (trading +2.2%) • Ferrovial: Expansion reports company will bid for Brazilian airports: Rio & Belo Horizonte (trading +0.25%) • Banco Espirito O3 asset quality & profitability better, funding worse, bottom line concerns (trading +5.3%) • Galp O3 net misses due to tax rate & charges, inline with preannouncement, O4 on track (trading - 1.4%) • Bankia O3 revs down year on year, NIl below, net income better y/y bad loan ratio weakens (trading -1.4%) • G4S rejects non-binding offer of £1.55B for cash solutions business from Charterhouse (trading +0.85%) • Fidessa IMS inline, H2 to be similar to H1, continued attrition and pricing pressure (trading +1.3%) • SAP: Sontag reports CFO Brandt is not interested in buying Blackberry assets (trading +0.90%) • Rollers reports company limning annual cost cuts in the hundreds of millions of curos (trading +0.60%) • RBS: Osbourne may favor internal bad bank rather than full split or legal structure change (trading +1.4%) • Axel Springer to open US retail shopping application, broker downgrade (trading -0.11%) • EADS CEO tells Sueddeutsche company plans further significant cuts (Defense Unit) (trading +0.42%) • Mediobanca Q1 net income better, revs inline, CT1 ratio 11.5% (flat), PBT improvement (trading +2.8%) • Italy October business confidence 97.3 versus estimate 96.0 (previous 96.6 was revised to 96.8) Leading European Sectors: Telco +0.60%, Healthcare +0.55%, Tech +0.46% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -1.03%, Trav/Les -0.19%, Oil & Gas -0.15% EFTA_R1_00759745 EFTA02123898 CKH earnings better — SOHU loss on div payment — CYOU revs +10% y/y Secondaries (announced/priced): ALRS RX IPO's: Numericable IPO price range €20.30-€24.80 (pricing Nov 7) US Key Research: • DB downgrades LEA, GS upgrades GNRC, RBC initiates PKY (op) • Wells Fargo downgrades HST, Citi initiates BYI (neut), Piper cuts CROX • Sterne cuts SCVL, Key cuts OC Europe Key Research: CS downgrades VIE FP & CO NA, DBK downgrades UCG IM • JPM upgrades IBE SM, Utilities and downgrades Autos, BRE PW, EUR PW Numis upgrades PTEC LN & ADM LN, BofAML upgrades AZN LN & SEBA SS MS upgrades HNR1 GY, RBC downgrades SMDR LN & PGS NO HSBC downgrades Fll FP, CGCBV FH, CAP FP and upgrades REC NO • Lampe downgrades SPR GY, JEFF upgrades SGE LN, Investec d/g LLOY LN, • KepChev d/g PHIA NA, initiate OSR GY (r) Swedbank u/g KVAER NO, NCCB SS Reporting Pre-Open: BIIB, EW, L, MRK, ROP, AHGP, ARLP, AWI, DOH, BWP, CHFC, CAN, CYOU, DCOM, EDR, HAE, IART, KEX, MCY, ONB, SBCF, SOHU, STNG, TEN, TGE, TRS Reporting Post-Close: AAPL, FMC, MAC, MAS, PCL, STX, ACGL, ADC, ADVS, AGNC, AI, ALSN, AMKR, APAM, ARE, BHLB, CEB, CGI, CGNX, CHE, CMP, CNO, CR, CTS, DATA, DCO, DENN, EFTA_R1_00759746 EFTA02123899 ECOL, ECOM, EPIQ, EXR, FDEF, GGP, HLF, HLIT, HLS, HMST, HTLF, ICAD, IDTI, IPHS, IVAC, JBSS, JLL, KAMN, KRC, LINE, MIC, MRH, NCLH, NEU, NTRI, OFG, Oll, OLN, PEI, PMCS, PPS, PRE, PRGX, PRK, PSB, PSMI, RBC, RGA, RVBD, TWGP, TWI, TXRH, WPP, WSTC Economic Data: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization @ 9:15am, Pending Home Sales @ 10am, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity @ 10:30am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: ABMD, CUB, FDX, HBAN, ITMN, KERX, PSDV, SCS, SQNS, STT, TXI, UTX Shareholder Meetings: YOKU, BTX, QNST Equity/Mixed Shelfs: GMLP Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's cover: Explores political gridlock and slowing economic growth could lead to Barron's Barron's positive: Kohl's (KSS) Barron's Walgreen (WAG) Barron's Furmanite (FRM) Barron's • Big Six face challenge over power bills FT • Barack Obama mounts big push to bolster FDI in US FT • Merkel's phone tapped by US since 2002, leaked documents claim FT • George Osborne prepares to relaunch Royal Bank of Scotland FT • Christian Noyer urges French government to step up reform FT • Fed probes banks' exposure to mortgage vehicles FT EFTA_R1_00759747 EFTA02123900 • Britain needs strong, independent cities to boost growth FT • Cristina Fernandez suffers Argentine electoral setback FT • China nuclear subs 'gallop to depths of ocean' FT • Forget China and switch to Zimbabwe, Mexico or Egypt FT • White House glitches go beyond Obamacare FT • Optimism about an end to the euro crisis is wrong FT • Politicians must weigh the cost of tapping allies' phones FT • NO: Counting the cash Lex • Japan: when profits are not enough Lex • PIPEs: check the plumbing Lex • Spanish banks: winter sun Lex • Obama Unaware as U.S. Spied on World Leaders: Officials WSJ • Sandy's Legacy: Higher Home Prices WSJ • U.S. Cities Grapple With Finances WSJ • J.P. Morgan's Mortgage Troubles Ran Deep WSJ • J.P. Morgan Settlement Puts Government in Tight Spot WSJ • China Is Back in Vogue With Investors WSJ • Saying Icahn't to Buybacks WSJ Heard on the Street • Silicon Valley: Feel the Froth WSJ • Greek Government Bonds Pay Off Big for Fund Managers WSJ • Draghi Risks Having Worst of All Worlds in Banking Union WSJ • China Is Back in Vogue With Investors WSJ • Clinton Draws Notice for Her Policy Stands WSJ • Too Big to Sail? Cruise Ships Face Scrutiny NYT • In Fed and out, many now think inflation helps NYT • Tesla eyes annual sales of 10,000 cars in Germany Reuters • Hedge fund chief set on selling NY-based satellite company NY Post EFTA_R1_00759748 EFTA02123901 • Britain makes play for Islamic finance to fund big projects The Times • Chinese banks 'will flood into the City' under branch deal The Times • Bombay mix: royal feud settled over £3 billion inheritance The Times • Hitachi targets UK in challenge to Europe's big train builders Independent • City's female high-flyer total doubles in a year Independent • Ben Chu: Our housing problems are worse than a bubble Independent • Anthony Hilton: Insurance sector's survival strategy so different to banks' lack of leadership Independent • 'Financial repression' may stave off default, but the cost to savers will be high Telegraph • Carney's new mood damaged by bank split threat Telegraph • Better figures should not mask battles ahead Telegraph • HMRC chiefs face grilling by MPs over lost tax Guardian • Economics students need to be taught more than neoclassical theory Guardian • We can thank Britain's services industries (or powering the recovery CitvAM • Defective regulations are pushing up energy prices as competition suffers CityAM Key Events This Week Tuesday: Sept PPI & Retail Sales, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Earnings (ADM, AGN, AME, APD, BP, ECL, ETR, FIS, PFE, WM, X, XRAY, AFL, AMP, BI0U, CBG, EA, WU, PPC) Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision (no press conference), Sept CPI, Oct ADP Employment Change, House/Senate conference expected to meet for the first time, Earnings (CMCSA, GLW, GM, GRMN, HES, PCG, PEG, SEE, WEC, ALL, CSC, EQR, EXPE, FB, KRFT, LNC, MAR, MET, MUR, SBUX, V) Thursday: Month End, Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, ISM Milwaukee, China HSBC/NBSD Markit PMI Oct, BOJ rate decision, BOJ Semiannual outlook report, Earnings (ABC, AVP, BEAM, CAH, EL, HAR, IRM, MA, PPL, PWR, TWC, XOM, AIG, FSLR, RSG, SWN) Friday: Markit US PMI, US Manufacturing ISM Oct, Construction Spending, Global Vehicle Sales, EFTA_R1_00759749 EFTA02123902 Earnings (CVX, NEE, WPO, BLT) Saturday: China NBS non-manufacturing PMI Key Events on the Horizon Nov 7 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Nov 28 — US Thanksgiving (market closed) Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Dec 18 — FOMC rate decision Jan 15 — Current CR runs out Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for — 1 month past this date) 680 Washington Blvd 'Stamford, CT 069011 lit EFTA_R1_00759750 EFTA02123903 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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