EFTA Document EFTA02126625

From: Ike Groff Sent: Fri 9/27/2013 10:06:07 AM Subject: Early Tour 9.27.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 40-80 bps... NKY -0.26%, SHCOMP +0.20%, KOSPI +0.22%, HSI +0.35%, TWSE +0.56%, ASX +0.24% EUR 1.3500 (+0.08%) JPY 98.61 (+0.39%) EUR/JPY 133.12 (-0.29%) AUD 0.9316 (-0.50%) NZD 0.8277 (-0.16%) GBP 1.608 (+0.24%) US 10yr 2.63% Japan 10yr 0.68% Germany 10yr 1.79% Portugal 10yr 6.94% Italy 10yr 4.42% Spain 10yr 4.39% Futures: Dow -45, Nasdaq -11, S&P -6 0XY $80.43 (-9c) Crude $102.40 (-63c) Gold $1324.30 (+20c) Copper -0.14% Silver -0.74% Asian markets were mainly higher overnight to close out the week ahead of quarter end. Volumes continue to be on the light side and news flow, both macro and stock specific was quiet. Japan was the only major market to end in the red, marginally retreating from yesterday's gains. There wasn't much action in the yen, which failed to break above 99 early, drifting lower throughout the session. August CPI out before the open was a touch higher than expected (National CPI +0.9% y/y vs est +0.8% y/y) but not enough to make any impact. That said, the retail buying continued, with the MOTHERS Index up another 4%. In Korea, the KOSPI stayed above 2k as foreign buying continued for a 23rd consecutive session. Shipbuilders (+2.4%) led gains as local brokers have been positive on order momentum and demand outlook along with retail (+2.5%) on signs of improving monthly sales (Aug #'s out yesterday). China and HK saw light volumes ahead of the Golden Week Holiday with the only excitement being a late day rally in the HSI which was attributed to the rolling of futures contracts into October — triggering short stops. It should continue to be quiet next week, in China and HK anyway as the Golden Week holidays get underway. Below is a list of next week's market closures: o Tuesday: China, Hong Kong o Wednesday: China, India o Thursday: China, South Korea o Friday: China European markets opened up but have faded this morning as SXXP near lows of session (volumes tracking below 30-day avgs) as uncertainty remains on Italian politics as well as US budget negotiations EFTA_R1_00765381 EFTA02126625 (US federal government will begin to shut down on Tuesday Oct 1.) Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told a U.K. newspaper he sees no case for further stimulus suggesting things are returning to normal but the message is that there may be further asset purchases should the recovery stall (pound highest level vs dollar in 8months = $1.608 last). SPAs -6 handles = 1686 last on the lows of the morning mirroring the Euro fade, ahead of the weekend where Congress is likely to work through in an attempt to reach a compromise between the Democratic-controlled Senate and Republican-dominated House on a stopgap funding bill. ***Personal Income & Spending @ 8:30am, Michigan Consumer Confidence © 9:55am*** ***BBRY Ws @ 7am, HSBC/Markit September China PMI Sunday night*" *"United Nations 68th Session of the General Assembly Saturday"* • Nike eps beat est better than expected global futures orders excluding currency effects (trading +8%) • Accenture eps inline, revs beat, and boosts div but provides cautious profit forecast (trading -4%) • PetSmart announces dividend increase and a $535M buyback program into Jan 2015 (trading +1%) • Euro-area economic confidence increased more than forecast for 5th month to 96.9 vs 96 ests • U.K. labor productivity rose first time in two yrs in the second quarter led by the manufacturing • Royal Mail to price IPO at 260-330p/share, implied equity value of £2.6-3.38, books close 10/08 • Italian President Napolitano and PM Lena call PdL plan to resign absurd - Republica • Babcock trading update, no change to July IMS, remains positive, maintains guidance (trading +1.4%) • Carphone Warehouse shares trading higher following proposal to transfer to a premium listing (trading +3.9%) • Air France-KLM; Le Figaro reports company votes against a E100M capital increase for Alitalia (trading -1.4%) • Kemira sells off as CEO Wolfgang Buchele resigns to become CEO of Linde (trading -4.2%) • Intesa Sanpaolo; reuters reports that CEO Cuccchiani may be ousted at board meeting on 10/01(trading -0.3%) • Chancellor George Osborne acts over housing boom fears with annual check on Help-to-buy plan • Adidas gets a bump on the open following Nike 10% EPS beat & strong European growth (trading +0.4%) • Inmarsat CFO Rick Medlock leaving after 9 yrs to take up private equity position (trading -0.5%) EFTA_R1_00765382 EFTA02126626 • IMI CEO Martin Lamb retires, will be succeeded by Mark Selway, ex Weir CEO (trading +0.8%) • Ithaca Energy announce the departure next month of CEO lain McKendrick (trading unch) • Norsk Hydro & Agder Energi sign Letter of Intent for potential joint company (trading -0.4%) • Sky Deutschland; James Murdoch takes up role of chairman (trading +0.5%) Leading European Sectors: Utilities +0.33%, Media +0.10%, Telco +0.07% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -1.57%, Construction -0.93%, Food/Bev -0.83% MPC $28 buyback increase — THO eps beat — ENTR $30M buyback EA & athletes reach settlement — AZZ earnings light — MET jv agreement Notable Options Activity Yesterday: FU ($8.67 -10.6%) stock reached multi year highs, touching $11.50, we saw aggressive put buying throughout the day with 2000 October 10 puts and 1400 October 7.5 puts on the tape. UPS ($91.80 +0.9%) 68,000 January 2015 $110-$120 call spreads were purchased for $0.70. The buyer spent $4.7mm in premium with a chance make 13x that if the stock closes above $120 at expiration Secondaries (announced/priced): JCP, SPPR, UIL, EOX IPO's: Violin Memory (VMEM) prices 18M shares at $9/shs, Enzymotec (ENZY) prices 4.4M shares at $14/shs, RingCentral (RNG) prices 7.5m shares at $13/shs, Pattern Energy (PEGI) prices 16m shares at $22/shs US Key Research: Raja initiates NTGR (op), Maxim initiates BRKRANAT (buys), Opco initiates CYT (op) EFTA_R1_00765383 EFTA02126627 • Jefferies initiates HCSG (hold), B Riely cuts AKAM, GS upgrades ANRNVLT/CNX & cuts CAR • Bofa downgrades ESL, DB downgrades IGT/IP & upgrades YGE/TSL (buy's), Investec initiates RCL (buy) • Wedbush upgrades VCLK, Stifel cuts MRO/NKE, FBR initiates MAS/SSD (mp's) & OC/TREX (op's) Europe Key Research: MS downgrade Fl IM, Nomura downgrade ELUXB SS, JPM initiate ZC FP (ow) • GS upgrade ADEN VX, BUNZ LN, ECM LN, MPI LN, PFL LN, RGU LN, RWA LN, TPK LN, APR LN • Cantor downgrade HMB SS, UBS add ATLN VX to most pref — remove NOVN VX ▪ Natixis upgrade EO FP, UBS initiate Prada (buy), Equinet downgrade PUM GY Berenberg upgrade CS FR PSAN GR, downgrade AML LN, HELN SW, BOSS GY • HSBC downgrade HEI GY, HOLN VX, upgrade HAV FP, WPP LN • CS upgrade HMB SS, SocGen upgrade HMB SS, SK FP, JEFF upgrade ORNBV FH • BofAML downgrade TEN IM, AOIL SS, upgrade AMI LN, Citi downgrade LAD LN Reporting Pre-Open: AZZ, BBRY, FINL, MTN, USAT Reporting Post-Close: NTZ Economic Data: Personal Income & Spending © 8:30am, U of Michigan Consumer Confidence © 9:55am Fed Speakers: Evans @ 5:45am (Oslo), Rosengren 8:30am (NYC), Dudley @ 2pm Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: N/A EFTA_R1_00765384 EFTA02126628 Non-Deal Roadshows: CYOU, CAG Shareholder Meetings: CORE, FEIC, GCO, ISSI, MYGN, NFG, NYCB, SBGL Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles 8 Stories WSJ positive: Dish Network (DISH) WSJ WSJ cautious: J.C. Penney (JCP) WSJ • George Osborne acts over housing boom fears FT • Maersk calls bottom of trade cycle FT • Man Group goes long on Asian analyst recommendations FT • Nuclear talks date set after Kerry meets Iranian counterpart FT • US rules 'endanger' derivatives reforms FT • Nairobi foreshadows tomorrow's urban conflicts FT • Russia's bullying should not prevail FT • Obama and Republicans remain poles apart as twin crises loom FT • Multinationals beach tax bills in Spanish shells FT • Talks are the only way to reset Iran's atomic clock FT • Osbome has now been proved wrong on austerity FT • Campaigning in Dr Seuss couplets FT • Arab upheaval and European introversion leave Turkey in limbo FT • JC Penney: rollercoaster ride Lex • JPMorgan: reserve conundrum Lex EFTA_R1_00765385 EFTA02126629 • Global M&A: confidence trick? Lex • DSM: transition report Lex • EU Official Questions Need for Debt Forgiveness in Greece WSJ • EU Chief Says Political Risks Still Threaten Recovery WSJ • Iran, U.S. Launch Nuclear Talks WSJ • No Clear Path to Avoid Shutdown as House GOP Stands Firm WSJ • Cost to Insure U.S. Government Debt Soars WSJ • Online Health Exchanges for Small Businesses Hit Snag WSJ • BATS Prepares to Take On Big Bell Ringers WSJ • Bond Funds Enjoy Bounce on Taper Delay WSJ • Saving Is No Saving Grace for the Economy WSJ • When Google Brainstorms, Online World Shudders WSJ • Mortgage Trouble in Chinese City WSJ • Meet the Man Picking Microsoft's Next CEO WSJ • McDonald's to Offer Alternatives to Fries, Sodas WSJ • Swaps Rules Worry Industry WSJ • A Munich Riverside Neighborhood Grows Increasingly Upscale WSJ • Royal Mail Valued at $5.3 Billion WSJ • Shuanghui to Boost Smithfield Exports as First Priority WSJ • $300 Million in Detroit Aid, but No Bailout NYT • Steve Beshear: My State Needs Obamacare. Now. NYT • JPMorgan Urged to Pay More in Mortgage Deal NYT • Tribune newspapers, including L.A. Times, prepare for cost-cutting LA Times • Ed can win from here. But he can't govern The Times • Beyond Europe The Times • Rise of the giant wind farm marks power shift away from dirty energy The Times • Inquiry into silver trades dropped by US regulator The Times EFTA_R1_00765386 EFTA02126630 • Britain's recovery driven by spending, not trade Independent • Jim Armitage: 'Sorry' is still the hardest word for our blinkered, rapacious bankers to say Independent • Jim Armitage: Bank is right to seek a clearer picture of risk Independent • IPCC report: global warming is 'unequivocal' Telegraph • Good news — foreigners are buying up Britain Telegraph • Britain could be forced to give €7bn to EC's bank bail-out fund Telegraph • No magic wand to curb energy prices, warns Nick Clegg Telegraph • UK's surveillance laws need overhaul, says former defence secretary Guardian • Why the US monthly jobs data matters Guardian • US astronaut praises China's space program China Daily • PBOC moves to avert severe credit crunch China Daily • Time is running out to save capitalism from the capitalists City AM • The Long View: Don't hate politicians: We're partly to blame for their professional deformation City AM • Inside Track: Global funds still have the appetite for UK's new issues City AM Key Events Next Week Monday: ISM Milwaukee, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, Eurozone CPI, IMF World Outlook, Johnson Rice Energy Conference (New Orleans), Earnings (PAYX, DMND, CALM) Tuesday: U.S. stopgap funding deadline and government shutdown, Markit US PMI, Vehicle Sales, US manufacturing ISM, Australia Rate decision, Golden Week begins, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI & unemployment rate, Tankan report, JMP Financial Services & Real Estate Conference (NYC), Wells Retail & Restaurant Summit (Boston), Earnings (WAG, AYI, GPN) Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, ISM New York, ECB rate decision, Bernanke speaks, China non-manufacturing PMI, Earnings (MON, CAMP, NAUH) Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, US factory orders & non-manufacturing ISM, Eurzone services PMI & EFTA_R1_00765387 EFTA02126631 retail sales, China HSBC/Markit Sept services PMI, Earnings (STZ, TXI) Friday: September Employment Report, BOJ rate decision Key Events on the Horizon October 1-7 — Golden Week Holiday in China October 8 — AA earnings October 10-11 - G20 Fin Min/CB meeting (DC) October 15 — US Treasury debt ceiling to be hit in mid-October EFTA_R1_00765388 EFTA02126632 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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