EFTA Document EFTA02137076

From: Ike Groff Sent: Mon 6/10/2013 9:54:02 AM Subject: Early Tour 6.10.13 Good Morning ... European Markets mixed (mostly higher) ... NKY +4.94%, KOSPI +0.46%, TWSE +0.81%, HSI +0.20% EUR 1.3220 (+0.01%) JPY 98.64 (-1.09%) EUR/JPY 130.39 (+1.09%) AUD 0.9432 (-0.69%) NZD 0.7882 (-0.13%) Spain 10yr 4.54% Italy 10yr 4.21% Portugal 6.12% Germany 10yr 1.53% Japan 10yr 0.84% US 10yr 2.16% Futures: Dow +46, Nasdaq +10, S&P +6 DXY $81.48 (+18c) Crude $95.66 (-37c) Gold $1377.20 (-$5.80) Copper -1.19% Silver -1.16% Most of Asia ended higher helped by the US NFP numbers out on Friday but volumes were very light with Australia and China closed. Japan outperformed as the Nikkei had its biggest one-day gain since October 309` 2008. Abe said over the weekend that the government would reveal a second program to spur economy during the autumn parliamentary session which would include plans to reduce regulation and targeted corporate tax cuts to boost capex. Japan's Q1 GDP was revised higher to 4.1% from 3.5% ahead of the open and the JPY weakened back > 98 which also added fuel to the fire. The Nikkei regained the 13,500 level by closing on its highs +4.94%. The BOJ's 2-day policy meeting begins today and GS is making a call to go long Nikkei Sep futures (they are targeting 14,500 with a stop on a close below 12,700). The H-Shares (-0.57%) drag following a slew of China May economic numbers out over the weekend, which was mixed overall but showed the economy is slowing down: Exports (+1.0% vs est +7.4%), Imports (-0.3% vs est +6.6%), CPI (+2.1% vs est +2.5%), PPI (-2.9% vs est -2.5%), New Loans (667.4b vs 815b), Money Supply (M2 +15.8% vs est +15.9%), Industrial Production (+9.2% vs est +9.4%), Retail Sales (+12.9% vs est +12.9%). Several brokers cut their China GDP forecasts on back of the macro releases. AUD weakening some more -0.68% to .9432 level. European markets mixed but generally higher in quiet trading to start the week (DAX outperforms +0.91% with Greece -2.5% & Turkey - 1.7% lagging). SPA's +6 handles = 1645 last. —"Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC), World Economic Forum, E3 Conference begin-- ***LULU & PBY Ws after close, TXN mid-Q update today, BOJ 2-day meeting begins, TEDGlobal2013 begins*" • Edward Snowden: interview of whistleblower behind the NSA surveillance revelations (Guardian) EFTA_R1_00786706 EFTA02137076 • Google said to be buying map-software provider Waze (private) for $1.1 billion for social maps • Astrazeneca to buy Pearl Therapeutics (private) in $1.15B deal to strengthen respiratory portfolio • Omers PE & Alberta Investment to buy Vue Entertainment for £935 million (UK cinemas) (link) • Elan board rejects improved $6.7B takeover offer from Royalty Pharma on valuation (trading +2.8%) • Vinci wins Qatar contract for Southern red line of the Doha metro, valued at E1.58 (trading -0.60%) • Telenet CFO Renaat Berckomoes resigns, to leave at the end of September (trading unch) • Novo Nordisk: spec they owe DKK 5.5B in Danish tax for understating patent transfer value (trading -0.30%) • Shire will not extend buyback, to look at several deals, talking down takeover speculation (trading - 0.10%) • DE Master Blenders: AFM register reports UBS has a 5.04% stake in company (trading +0.12%) • France Telecom's CEO Richard held in custody over Tapie affair, reports Le Figaro (trading - 0.80%) • BMW Group May global sales look good +6.0% on the year at 166,397 units (trading +0.32%) • BSkyB: Telegraph reports company likely to engage in pricing cuts to counter BT's free package (trading +0.64%) • Punch Tavems Q3 IMS inline, revises restructuring plans, on track to meet FY targets (trading +5.9%) • Balfour Beatty planning to close 3 UK construction sites, wins £110M Providence contract (trading +4.2%) • Severn Trent has not discussed Borealis lead offer with consortium, no further offer to be made (trading -5.9%) • Lloyds seen as front runner for the UK govemment to start selling down its bank stakes (trading - 0.11%) • Spanish Banks: El Pais reports the ECB & IMF propose extending aid deadline for Spain's banks • French industrial production +2.2% rnim in April versus estimate +0.3% and -0.6% in March • France's Hollande declares end of Europe's debt crisis during state visit to Japan (Guardian) • Germany's Federal Constitutional Court to review the ECB's OMT and the ESM this week • ECB dismisses Sonntag report that a €524 billion limit had been set for the OMT (Bloomberg) • Turkey's Erdogan continues to remain defiant, lambasting protesters in speeches yesterday (AP) • Sharp rises most in 2 week (Qualcomm share sale terms finalized) (6753 JP closed +15.2%) EFTA_R1_00786707 EFTA02137077 • China: Barclays lowers its 2013 GDP forecasts to 7.4% from 7.9% and 2014 to 7.4% from 8.1% Leading European Sectors: Trav/Les +0.99%, Retail +0.71%, Media +0.70% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -1.65%, Utilities -0.48%, Food/Bev -0.36% QTM guides revs up — AWH dividend boost — SWC ceo retires Secondaries (announced/priced): BEP, OPTT (atm), FANG IPO's: Deutsche Annington Immobilien (E400 million IPO launch) (Germany's largest residential real estate company) IPO's (lock-up expires): SolarCity (SCTY) US Key Research: • Barcap initiates TEP (ow) & upgrades FMS, Citi initiates AMBI (buy), Jeff downgrades TWI • GS initiates CVRR (neut) & downgrades CVI (sell), Stifel upgrades FB, Wells cuts MU • UBS initiates STR (neut) & downgrades OXY/ZNH, Evercore upgrades BBT, ISI upgrades ARE/REG (buys) • CS downgrades DO, DB upgrades ETR (buy), JPM downgrades LEN & upgrades SPF Europe Key Research: ▪ Citi replace MKS LN with HMB LN as least pref, upgrade BET LN, ROG VX, VOW GY, PAH3 GY, initiate RTL LX (b) • CS downgrade PFL LN, ECM LN, SocGen upgrade NES1V FH, GS initiate BBA LN, RTL LX (b), d/g NDA LN, BKIR ID Barc downgrade EKTAB SS, upgrade FRE GY, FME GY, HSBC downgrade RXL FP, BofAML initiate RTL LX (n) EFTA_R1_00786708 EFTA02137078 JPM downgrade ZURN VX, FDL LN, TIT IM, GEM LN, upgrade SCR FP, BIMAS TI, MS initiate RTL LX (ow) • UBS remove ENI IM from key call list, remove CHMF RM from emerging EMEA call list, upgrade EVR LN • MAQ double upgrade WCH GY, KepChev downgrade AZN LN, Pareto downgrade YAR NO • Numis downgrade NAV LN, CGL LN, AML LN, upgrade LRE LN, Panmure upgrade GEM LN, PDL LN Reporting Pre-Open: ANFI, KMG, TPLM Reporting Post-Close: BNNY, COOL, ENZ, LULU, MLNK, NAV, PBY, SURG Economic Data: No major releases Fed Speakers: Bullard @ 9:50am (Montreal) Conferences: CS Communications Technology (Boston) Analyst/Investor Days: AIDIF, ACHO, CLMT Non-Deal Roadshows: AXE, BEN, CBSH, CEVA, CINF, GA, IMPV, JOUT, KOG, MGIC, MRH, MTZ, T, THG, VSTM Shareholder Meetings: BERK, DSPG, ARNA, H, PFPT, UTIW, SYX Equity/Mixed Shelfs: FCEL ($150M), GTAT ($50M), IPCC ($300M) Other Newspaper Articles 8, Stories EFTA_R1_00786709 EFTA02137079 Barron's cover: Cautious Tesla Motors (TSLA) Barron's Barron's positive: Clean Harbors (CLH) Barron's Foot Locker (FL) Barron's Loral Space & Communications (LORL) Barron's WSJ cautious: Lululemon (LULU) WSJ WSJ positive: Tiffany & Co. (TIF) WSJ • Backlash over US snooping intensifies FT • Japan revises Q1 growth higher to annual 4.1% FT • UK Treasury considers Lloyds stake sale FT • Mobile operators to launch app adverts at 17m phone users FT • SEC counsel faces whistleblower's claims FT • Chinese gold miners' hope for riches shattered by Ghana crackdown FT • Share price windfall reignites debate over executive pay FT • Obama-Xi summit presented as a walk in the park FT • Bank reforms spur BNP Paribas to merge US units FT • Hearing pits German monetary heavyweights against each other FT • Choke on banks stifles Cyprus economy FT • Reliance Communications: brotherly love Lex • Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac: swept up Lex • Caixabank: more cleaning to do Lex • Obama has hurt himself and business over privacy FT (Comment) • Hail the outbreak of honesty about Greece's bailout FT (Comment) • The sheriff has spoken — and the Swiss must submit FT (Opinion) • A modem Turkey could yet emerge from the protests FT (Opinion) • Contractor Says He Is Source of NSA Leak WSJ • Next Up After U.S.-China Talks: The Details WSJ • Turkish Premier Goes Barnstorming WSJ • U.K. Lawmakers Questioning FPC's Independence WSJ EFTA_R1_00786710 EFTA02137080 • Miner, Billions Over Budget, Slogs Ahead in Rural Brazil WSJ • E-Cigarettes Fire Up Investors, Regulators WSJ • Forecast Calls for Volatility WSJ • Still Hiccups on Path to Economic NATO WSJ • How Putin Does It WSJ (Opinion) • Irish bailout costs British taxpayers an extra £10bn The Times • Co-op to sell mortgage processor The Times • SSE's red light over green energy subsidy The Times • Vue cinemas snapped up in £935m deal The Times • Americans hold keys to London's hospitals for the rich and famous The Times • Boots prepares to make great leap forward to China The Times • Mark Mobius warns Poland against raid on pensions The Times • Erdogan is confronting a new Sixties spirit The Times (Opinion) • Give away £34bn RBS and Lloyds bank shares to taxpayers, George Osborne told Independent • Jim Armitage: Oligarchs win again in game of Ukraine monopoly Independent • If he wants to turn around the Bank of England supertanker, Mark Carney has a major task ahead Independent (Comment) • Erdogan's mishandling of protests has exposed the myth of a stable Turkey Independent 1Comment) • Ed Balls: Labour plan to cap state pension Teleqraph • Water giants' profits and tax 'morally questionable', says Ofwat boss Teleqraph • Councils 'to blame' for death of high street Telegraph • Thinktank urges loan insurance for SMEs Guardian • G8 summit success relies on hard graft, not self-congratulatory back patting Guardian Key Events This Week Tuesday: BOJ rate decision, Germany's Constitutional Court review of OMT & ESM begins (ruling not EFTA_R1_00786711 EFTA02137081 expected until later this year), JOLTs Job Openings, Wholesale Inventories, NFIB Small Business Optimism, GS Global Healthcare Conference (Rancho Palos Verdes, CA), Cowen Transportation Conference (NYC), MS Financials Conference (NYC) Wednesday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, Piper Consumer Conference (NYC), MS Fin Services Conference, DB Industrials & Basic Materials Conference (Chicago), Earnings (HRB, PVH) Thursday: Advance Retail Sales, Import Price Index, William Blair Growth Stock Conference (Chicago), BMO Fixed Income Insurance Conference (Toronto), Earnings (RH, CASY, RENT) Friday: PPI, IP, Michigan Confidence, Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST, Earnings (SFD) Key Events on the Horizon June 19 — FOMC rate decision June 21 — Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance, EuroStoxx 600 adds/deletes on close, Options Expiration June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor July 31 — FOMC rate decision September — German elections September 18 - FOMC rate decision EFTA_R1_00786712 EFTA02137082 Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 I 2 (203) 302-7300 [email protected] This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it Is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security of other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA_R1_00786713 EFTA02137083