EFTA Document EFTA01387379

9 January 2018 FX Blueprint I Figure 13: Chinese FX policy moved through three distinct regimes last year; what's to come? 700 660 0.60 670 010 tee 2017 CMY FX Regimes -Wherenext7 Regime I Annum camel centres -> compress reared gel Regime 2 Opportunistic fixing methodology - NO down 1/50/CSIY Regent 3 Loosen macroprudemul measures reerroducing USD demand -5 tno way USO/CSIY moms d.a0 Idl1v 6100.17 l4u61 7 60:o itt Savor Dendiellantee alormlarg Mina LP Figure 15: USLXCNY correlations to the broad dol€ar 58 Figure 14: Back-end bond yield spreads are still supportive of RhtB :50 200 159 00 57 0 -50 •100 •150 -200 Cluna US WY 8ond Yield 904041. bp3 U' DCW RH' •eive old 07 08 03 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 7 Soirc• Dandy a *AG Socentiorpityno• LP 62 64 66 68 7.2 7 4 7.6 7.8 I Figure 16: =outflows have been reined in. but travel have been rising since CFETS basket introduction and E&0 outflows have remained stubborn 1W 0(,0 00 040 020 04) 420 -340 ly rolling correlation between USOtCNY and MD TV] 13 19 Sams Onsets awe A4 Mare n Feta CP Figure 17: Foreign debt inflows surged in OS 2017 after the launch or Bond Connect 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 I I eg e a ll.li.iliIIII III II III1I -10 III -20 -30 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 la 15 16 17 Sarni Deutsche Pant AO, Hos Anitsea I Sane Cando Bs* A0 Bloonitep Para. LP USD bn Foreign Debt Inflows (per quarter) 100 MD en 40 sin. -300 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 9 Sant Onsthe ant Mt Non Amyl:» Figure 18: Chinese Kills remain steady and the leading relationship to FX suggests further support for RMI5 930 52 5 S2 0 Si 510 50 500 476 49.0 £05 ne Cdfreal PAC "'SD r411. ett3 teserwl ly lag 63 50 62 6.4 66 60 70 430 72 2613 2O.1.1 2615 201E .'017 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089883 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236067 EFTA01387379