EFTA Document EFTA01428694

Subject: Re: Recent DB Publications on Post-Brexit View and Italian Banks From: Richard Kahn ‹ > Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 14:34:35 -0400 To: Stewart Oldfield ‹ > thank you Richard Kahn HBRK Associates Inc. 575 Lexington Avenue 4th Floor New York, NY 10022 tel fax cel On Jul 15, 2016, at 10:49 AM, Stewart Oldfield < =.• wrote: Over the past weeks, several post-Brexit referendum issues have been top-of- mind, including: How has the Brexit referendum result changed our CIO's economic and asset class expectations? How have we changed our allocations to reflect the post-Brexit referendum environment? What impact will the Brexit referendum have on the European financial sector, specifically Italian banks? Our CIO office, and DB Research, have released several publications to address these questions. We've attached these pieces and have provided a list with a short description of each. If you have any questions, or would like to discuss our post-Brexit referendum views in greater detail, please feel free to reach out. EFTA01428694 Updated CIO Strategic Forecasts, Asset Class Views and Asset Allocations: DB WM — Strategic CIO View — July 2016 o Outlines the recently updated (post-Brexit) WM CIO strategic forecasts and asset class views o Key points include: § Global growth forecasts revised slightly downward § Loose monetary policy continues to support fixed income markets § Brexit means adjustments to our equity market forecasts, but does not derail them § USD strength a continuing theme § Oil forecast raised slightly; gold forecast increased more DB WM — Regional Investment Committee Tactical Asset Allocation Changes — July 12, 2016 o Provides the rationale behind the tactical asset allocation changes resulting from the RIC - Americas meeting on July 12: § Decrease exposure to European Equities (Unhedged) by 2.0% § Increase exposure to Emerging Market Equities (Core) by 1.0% § Increase exposure to Emerging Market Bonds by 1.0% DB WM - Economic & Asset Class Outlook — June/July 2016 o Summarizes the WM near-term and long-term expectations for: § The global economy § Monetary policy, inflation and FX § Major asset classes o Provides our June 2017 economic and asset class targets EFTA01428695 DB WM - CIO Note: Brexit Update - July 2016 o Provides an update on the political, policy and economic impacts of the Brexit referendum in the U.K. and globally § Describes potential next steps and near-term timeline for Theresa May's government § Discusses our expectations for BOE and Fed policy in the coming months § Provides our view on the potential impact on U.K. and global economic growth Potential Impact of the Brexit Referendum on European and Italian Banks: DB WM — CIO Note: Italian Banks — July 2016 o Discusses how the Brexit referendum results have brought greater stress to an already weakened Italian banking sector o Explores the different approaches that the Italian government and the EU/ECB could take in order to "shore-up" the banks and reduce systemic risk (with historic examples) o Highlights the potential effects on several asset classes and the broader European economy DB Research - Brexit and Euro-Area Banks: A Key Contagion Channel — July 5, 2016 o Discusses the Brexit driven issues that could have a negative impact on Italian banks o Suggest some policy responses that may mitigate these risks DB Research - European Banks Industry Update: Brexit Hangover — June 27, 2016 o Provides an outline of the potential impacts of Brexit on the banking EFTA01428696 sector in several European regions o Specific focus on Italy provided on page 17 This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. <DB - Strategic CIO View - July 2016.pdf><DB - RIC Americas Tactical Asset Allocation Changes - July 2016.pdf><DB - Economic and Asset Class Outlook - July 2016.pdf><DB - CIO Note - Brexit Update - July 2016.pdf><DB - CIO Note - Italian Banks - July 2016.pdf><DB - Brexit and Euro-Area Banks - July 5 2016.pdf><DB - European Banks - Brexit Hangover - July 5 2016.pdf> EFTA01428697