EFTA Document EFTA01449325

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 Capital Flows and Basic Balance Monitor United States 1USD bn) I t Figure I: The basic balance is on a recovery path over he last one year 200 100 0 -100 -200 300 400 -680 400 -700 96 n8080893 minw theuesietelance Na f amp US rillotalecL US (A ild 12m acctrrela10:1/ —Bak Bata usonsa (no l-re 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source 06 f% ihocwc en1 US Peony 475 470 4.66 4.60 4.55 4.60 446 440 436 430 426 420 Figure 3: The private basis balance has been diverging from the overall balance 200 103 0 400 .200 -300 400 -SOO 400 93 95 97 99 01 03 06 07 09 11 13 Slott 09 am..O... su W rreIary 200 100 0 -leo .200 -300 400 -500 -600 [Figure 5: Official inflows inversely correlated with private inflows since the late 1990s 620 520 420 320 220 120 20 -80 moommmwsomwoommmootou Sane Dd FY Roteerch a I MOW a' Mm.c, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 2: as non-treasury portfolio outflows have turned positive 800 600 400 200 0 -200 400 -600 -903 __....T Bain flu non-mnuy poiebb lows —Bask Bata J 97 98 99 03 01 02 03 04 06 06 07 03 00 10 11 12 13 Source De? icX R*54WMItAl US TINILY Figure 4: as official inflows become significant 66 55 45 36 26 15 USD 9n. —met Omen Plowmanet Corposer Bonds Not Oftiple PIMOrldilY0)01 agortcy Bondy (Fivl 78 0362 84 86 88 90 92 949698 00 02 04 06 03 10 12 Son: a I a Rel•Voln ant US Dikatry 800 too 400 200 0 -200 -400 150 103 so 0 -50 -100 -150 Figure 6: Relative to the private basic balance, the dollar is expensive 620 200 520 100 0 Co -ice 320 .200 220 .300 120 400 20 -600 -80 U51:1811 POMP BM Banco ---USTAS la HEW UST% wth Poe Bnk Baena) Clifl Ln 4.80 460 4 CC 420 400 380 93 94 95 9697 9399 000102 03 04 05 06 070809 10 11 12 13 Sorsa DS ell Refeirchoof tiSlreesuy Page 25 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250865 DB-SDNY-0104681 EFTA01449325