EFTA Document EFTA01449334

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 7: Export volumes have remained below trend Figure 8: Export volume deviations from trend is no since 2001 4.0 4.7 4.6 4!. Sager Dalarea, PUNS* Bog [Figure Recovery 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge doesn't seem (Figure 10: in import price is boosting the volume during the past few months longer correlated with moving average of dollar valuation -070 • 10 • 10 000 oa ore o 111 070 aann•A`VADnAlen4 USIA Oman* Mantrvene0 AnOtaancenonas mirage n thiP4i Saw DIOAMA Lant.4 Ba•A Ln 020 020 0 A 0 10 oa 000 -006 4110 • lb -0 n. to bolster export volume growth 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jan-94 —Exoonvoiarno ilf:TRIIIMA.kny•Ited6W Jan-98 Jan.02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Source. DeteStrewn, Deutsch* Sant Lo 20 15 440 10 0 4 60 -5 4 SO 4 30 4 70 4 80 -10 w 15 arren Vonana InpOn Proalrnol Jan.92 Jana) Jana) Sear &bays% Detach, Bank Jan C4 Jan-03 Jan-12 Figure 1 : Import price inflation has followed the dollar Figure 12: Import volume growth has generally been highly correlated with US domestic demand growth 26 —Import Pnce 20 USTABA0kineftearhal WY.% i 15 6 40 45 -5 0 It) Nik I A\ - .1 i. -20 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-O2 Jan-06 Jan-10 Sown. Conearen Dance* 8ent Page 40 -12 -7 20 15 10 it \ -2 0 3 -5 -10 8 -15 -20 13 -25 Jan-94 -import Volume US 810 hs) Jon-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Savor OestSrewn tacitly Set 22 17 12 • la a 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250880 DB-SDNY-0 104696 EFTA01449334