DS10: EFTA01621008 (.mov)
DOJ EFTA Dataset 10 (Seized Media)·Wednesday, January 1, 2025·3h 26m
It's not easy to see how they effectively run the next deputy in Basque Creek. I don't disagree...
0:01
It's not easy to see how they effectively run the next deputy in Basque Creek.
0:06
I don't disagree with anything you said.
0:21
And I don't know who he trusts on these kinds of...
0:42
Who the president?
0:43
I don't know who the president really trusts.
0:46
On these kinds of strategic...
0:50
McDonough.
0:51
The young guy.
0:52
Yeah, but he doesn't...
0:54
I read you with Valerie Jarrett.
0:56
There is a woman named Samantha...
0:58
Power.
0:59
Power.
1:00
Yeah.
1:01
No.
1:02
Yeah, but he doesn't...
1:14
There's a difference between who he trusts and who he likes.
1:19
Yeah.
1:20
So, I don't...
1:22
You know, he...
1:24
Valerie Jarrett.
1:25
Do you know Valerie Jarrett?
1:26
Yeah.
1:27
She's an idiot.
1:28
She is?
1:29
An idiot.
1:30
I don't know as well enough.
1:32
But I noticed that she...
1:34
You know, but she don't know.
1:36
I noticed that he listens to her.
1:44
His door, his telephone is always open for her.
1:49
He listens to her, he believes her instincts about politics, about who is against him, who
1:56
is for him, what's going around, who is cooking what from Chicago to the world.
2:03
But it's like...
2:06
Do you think Richard Nixon ultimately cared what Bibi...
2:13
Listened to what Bibi Robozo thought?
2:16
Listened to?
2:17
You may not know this name.
2:20
Bibi Robozo.
2:22
No.
2:23
No, I don't remember.
2:24
Richard Nixon...
2:25
Yeah.
2:26
Bibi Robozo was some kind of business...
2:30
Yeah.
2:31
Semi-corrupt business guy who was Richard Nixon's best friend.
2:35
Mm-hmm.
2:36
And whenever Richard Nixon went to, you know, Key Biscayne or went to California, Bibi Robozo
2:41
was there.
2:42
Richard Nixon would spend a lot of time on Bibi Robozo's boat.
2:45
No.
2:46
And if Bibi Robozo wanted something, Richard Nixon would say.
2:49
Yeah.
2:50
But I don't think when Richard Nixon was deciding what to do about the...
2:53
China.
2:54
Yeah.
2:55
He was talking to Bibi Robozo.
2:56
Yeah.
2:57
Okay.
2:58
I think.
2:59
Uh...
3:00
Valerie Jarrett.
3:01
No.
3:02
In this regard, he's probably alone, but he feels, compared to other leaders that
3:12
I happened to meet in the last decades, Obama impressed me as an extremely autonomous
3:21
person.
3:22
Exactly.
3:23
That's what I'm saying.
3:24
He feels good with himself, even though he's alone in the room.
3:29
I didn't see in him what we know in Clinton, or in our Paris.
3:33
And I'm shocked.
3:34
I have an intelligent experience there, emotionally or psychologically.
3:39
There is an...
3:40
There is there, deep in there, within the personality, and anxiety.
3:44
The need for love.
3:46
For explicit expressions of love.
3:49
Obama didn't see anything of this in Obama.
3:52
I've never seen...
3:53
I mean, there's lots of things, lots of things to say like that.
4:01
Somebody told me the story that...
4:04
Bob Reich told me this story.
4:07
This is Robert Reich, who was Secretary of Labor.
4:10
Yeah, a small guy.
4:11
Small guy.
4:12
He said he had been a friend of Clinton's.
4:16
They'd been students together in England, so he was kind of Clinton's friend.
4:21
He said that if he went to a cabinet meeting, and whenever Clinton looked at him, he looked
4:28
annoyed or looked away, for sure Clinton would call within two days.
4:33
How's it going, Bob?
4:34
What's up?
4:35
Is there something on your mind?
4:37
What's going on?
4:38
He just wanted the love.
4:40
If you tried that shit with Obama, you'd freeze in hell before he called.
4:46
I mean, Obama didn't...
4:49
He had lunch...
4:50
He was pretty much sitting.
4:51
He had lunch alone half the days.
4:52
Is that right?
4:53
Yeah.
4:54
I mean, they would schedule in, like, time for him to be alone.
4:58
And if he did some event, where, you know, he was speaking to a thousand people, they
5:04
would give him, like, a little rest time afterwards.
5:07
No.
5:10
Too many...
5:11
Too many human beings around him.
5:14
Yeah, he just wanted to be...
5:16
Yeah.
5:17
He had no need.
5:20
And, you know, it's the same.
5:22
He wants to be with the people he wants to be with.
5:24
I think it's a source of strength, ultimately, in tough moments in politics.
5:29
Probably, it's not the most effective way to mobilize people.
5:34
No, but it's a very...
5:36
Or, look, another thing, which I'm sure they tried a lot of times.
5:42
You know, if you were president...
5:44
Let's say you're president of the United States, and you like to play golf.
5:49
You like to?
5:50
You're president of the United States, and you like to play golf.
5:54
Yeah.
5:55
Okay?
5:56
Which he does.
5:57
It's a big asset, it's a potential big political asset.
6:02
No.
6:03
You like to play golf.
6:04
Okay.
6:05
The president likes to play golf with his buddies.
6:09
And so, 80% of the golf is with the same three guys.
6:14
Yeah.
6:15
His photographer, his campaign guy, and, you know, his three buddies from Chicago.
6:20
That's who played golf.
6:21
Now, most people, if they were president and they played golf, you know, they'd play golf with
6:27
people from Congress, they'd play golf with business guys, they'd play golf with people
6:31
who would...
6:32
Read Clinton's memoirs.
6:33
Yeah.
6:34
It's all boring, because it's like a list of the specials, what he had done with anything,
6:38
and still very careful not to insult anyone years after he's not in office anymore.
6:47
Yeah.
6:48
And Obama just is...
6:49
It's all...
6:50
Cerebral.
6:51
He's extremely cerebral.
6:52
They called him...
6:53
Yeah, and he has this nickname, their nickname for him during the campaign was Black Jesus.
7:06
Right?
7:07
Yeah.
7:08
Who knows what kind of character Jesus was?
7:10
I have no idea.
7:11
He has this sense of himself as not me, and removed.
7:24
You know, I think of other elements.
7:26
I think that when he looks at the pictures of all his predecessors, he doesn't see them all.
7:33
He sees probably seven or eight of them.
7:36
Probably Washington, Jefferson, I don't know.
7:40
Of course Lincoln, probably Kennedy, Reagan, I don't know.
7:45
He doesn't see the rest of them.
7:46
He thinks in terms of greatness.
7:49
I understand that greatness comes from few major achievements, sometimes against all
7:58
us, that happen to be perceived at hindsight as...
8:07
And that's...
8:08
I think that when he sees, even on Iran, what really disturbs him is the possibility that
8:14
this will be a great stain on his role.
8:18
If they turn nuclear under his term, under his watch, where he had, you know, Bush, it's a paradox,
8:28
you know, you will to joke in Israel that labor governments can make war, and only the Kurds
8:40
governments can make peace.
8:42
But here you find something similar.
8:44
The Bush administration, they can learn very high rhetoric.
8:48
But in effect, they were parallel even from ordering the Pentagon to plan contingencies for certain days.
8:56
And this administration, they got Nobel Peace Prize as a down payment before they even started.
9:02
Somehow, they are planning and preparing much more seriously.
9:07
I think the Pentagon right now, they keep improving the...
9:11
I want to scorn American colleagues that when we are talking about surgical operations, we are talking about using scalpel.
9:21
And they are talking about chisels with 10-pound hammer.
9:26
But in the last several years, they developed extremely subtle scalpel, probably more effective than ours.
9:38
And bearing in mind that they hold a big stick there, anyhow, without having to announce it.
9:49
Basically, I once told the president, look, I'm confident that if on a scale, a spectrum,
9:57
of operational decisions, a decision to delay the Iranian nuclear program by several years,
10:06
would look more like a raid on bin Laden than a fully fledged war in Iraq,
10:16
you might have considered very seriously already.
10:20
It is only the fact that somehow people succeeded in implementing in your mind an extremely dramatic scenario
10:31
that might eventually develop out of it.
10:35
That makes you judge it as something closer to the other pole.
10:42
And that's not an accurate description of reality.
10:48
Didn't you start out, I might not have this exactly right, but I think he started thinking that part of his grand legacy
11:08
was that he was going to bring hope and harmony to the big Middle East.
11:14
Yeah.
11:15
That he was going to give the Cairo speech, that the Islamic world was going to feel better about him, that Israel was going to be induced to be constructive,
11:26
that there was going to be peace in the West Bank, and then everybody was going to feel better, and he was going to do for Iran what Nixon did for China.
11:36
Yeah.
11:37
And so I think he started with the idea that he was going to be a visionary great man.
11:43
And I think he's learned in the last four years that that's not going to happen.
11:48
And now I think he thinks, and now I think it's much more defensive.
11:53
That is, I think he's trying to avoid a stain rather than to have it, rather than to have it achieved, is my sense.
12:02
Yeah.
12:03
I shouldn't be very sorry.
12:04
Is my sense watching him.
12:06
But is he...
12:07
But how long...
12:13
I have this sense that people always say the next year is the crucial year, the next nine months are the crucial nine months.
12:34
About what?
12:35
About Iran.
12:36
But then it sort of...
12:39
Moves.
12:40
Drifts.
12:41
Moves a quarter every quarter.
12:45
Moves what?
12:46
Moves forward a quarter every quarter.
12:48
Yeah.
12:49
It's like shale oil was, you know, I think it's no longer true, but for 40 years, the price
12:55
at which shale oil would be profitable was the same.
12:59
The current price of oil plus 10.
13:02
Yeah, but it's 100 plus 10 is different.
13:07
No, no.
13:08
Okay, it's no longer...
13:09
4 plus 10 is...
13:10
No.
13:11
8 plus 10 is...
13:12
Right.
13:13
But is...
13:14
Is Iran likely to come to a crunch in the next, um, in the next year?
13:23
What's the crunch?
13:24
To reach a nuclear capacity?
13:26
Is there likely to be...
13:27
Well, no.
13:28
I mean, that's one question, but I mean...
13:29
I'm not...
13:30
So, things that could happen are...
13:32
There could be an attack.
13:33
Let me describe it before.
13:35
Iranians will always act based on what they feel, to what extent the other side, mainly
13:46
the United States and Israel, are ready to act.
13:49
They are clever enough to act counter-cyclic, counter-cyclic.
13:57
Namely, when the attention of the whole world somewhere else, or for other reasons,
14:04
will be paralyzed from doing something, they will be hectic.
14:10
When all of us are focused on it and stand ready, they might even go with further gambits.
14:17
They might announce that they stop everything for a year.
14:20
Just in order to...
14:22
And they are chess players, extremely clever.
14:26
But they are determined to follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea.
14:32
And not to fall into the trap with, in a way, the Qaddafi, late Qaddafi, or under other circumstances, the South Africans fell into.
14:47
And clearly they want not to end with something like Iraq or Syria.
14:52
So the very fact that I can quote these three pairs of examples means that there is an opening for them.
15:02
So there is a need for something much more dramatic than the present kind of level of sanction.
15:07
They are very unprecedented and very painful for them.
15:11
It reduced their reserves dramatically.
15:16
And some of the reserves are practically blocked.
15:20
They cannot approach it very easily.
15:22
The real currency was evaluated dramatically.
15:32
And it's not easy.
15:33
But as we know from other examples in the past, the elites don't suffer.
15:40
See, that's what I was struck by.
15:42
I was struck by the fact that I didn't see...
15:47
If you treated the country as one actor doing what was best for the country, then I think there's a case to be made that the reward, take off the sanctions, give them rewards, they give up the nukes, all that.
16:09
But if you take it from the point of view of the people who are there now, I don't see how if the sanctions come off and they give up the nukes, they're alive and in power a year later.
16:24
You know, the basic strategy of the regime is to defend its continuity.
16:34
And for them, I'm talking from time to time about the zone of immunity for the nuclear military program.
16:47
But the whole program aims at achieving another layer of immunity, an immunity for the regime.
16:54
They see, look at what happened right now in North Korea.
16:58
They fully understand Iranians that once they turn nuclear.
17:03
That's become the ultimate guarantee that no one will try to intervene within their internal...
17:10
However brutal they might have to go with their own people.
17:14
So they do not need it in order to drop a bomb on a neighbor.
17:22
They need it in order to be able to spread terror, to hegemonize the region, to intimidate neighbors,
17:29
and to be secure that whatever they are doing will not end up with someone trying to topple their regime.
17:36
So I think that the problem is that for us, for Israel, time is running out.
17:45
Because they keep enriching, they keep repairing more centrifuges and now start with a new version of centrifuges
17:53
that will be only five times more effective in enrichment.
17:58
That shortens the timeframe between decision and reaching weapon-grade capabilities running from 20% or whatever.
18:06
They protect better the size, they improve their surface-to-air missile systems,
18:15
the radars to identify stealth kind of airplanes or even kind of cruise missiles.
18:25
They are not sleeping.
18:27
They are not sleeping.
18:28
They are not sleeping.
18:29
They are not sleeping.
18:30
They have already built a force of some 600-500 floating mines with GPS that can navigate, so to speak,
18:43
their place into their places in the Strait of Humoz.
18:48
And it's quite a converging effort to create enough redundancy that Israel, with its limited
19:00
military potential, won't be able to delay them by significant time.
19:09
And probably a year later, or 18 months later, even America won't be able to do it in a
19:16
clearly surgical operation. And that's basically their calculation.
19:23
So they do not have a timetable. It doesn't matter for them. They waited for nuclear weapons 4,000 years.
19:32
They waited another four years or four years. It doesn't matter.
19:37
They just want to reach it before they start to collapse as a regime.
19:43
Will their election matter?
19:48
It matters because it gives excuses to those who don't want to create a moment of truth, not to reach this moment.
19:58
And the normal situation, the coming spring, it should have been a moment of truth.
20:04
P5 plus 1 is going to meet in other times.
20:08
Afterwards, probably a direct conversation.
20:11
There was some woman that Valerie started to...
20:15
She was born in Iran, in Shiraz. Her father...
20:18
Who was on that?
20:19
Who was on that?
20:20
Valerie Jarrett was born in Iran, in Shiraz.
20:25
Her father was before the revolution.
20:30
He was heading in hospitals, financed by some international NGO, by American government,
20:37
to help the Iranian people.
20:40
So she was born there.
20:41
And some others, even some former players, including one of my former colleagues and some former leading ambassadors,
21:00
to try to create a direct contact with the Iranians to try to clarify what would be the terms of the wizard.
21:08
And the Iranians assume, I know it, I'm not guessing, that this type of guy would not have contacted them without informing the MSC or State Department, Pentagon, etc.
21:26
And so for them, even if the intention is not, it is read by the Iranians.
21:33
And they might end up...
21:35
I recommend it to my colleagues here too.
21:39
I told them, we cannot pretend to be able to tell you whether to talk to them directly or not,
21:46
if you feel that's ultimately necessary to...
21:49
or absolutely necessary to make sure that you exhausted all alternatives.
21:55
But if you do it, do it as early as possible, so that coming the election or coming April,
22:02
they will have to face a choice.
22:04
Because if they reach election, and you are still negotiating with them,
22:08
they will tell their people, we are standing firm against the whole world, including America,
22:12
they are all crawling to our doorstep to ask for some concessions.
22:17
And at the same time, they keep moving. It's ridiculous.
22:21
And I guess that even after election, someone else will be elected.
22:28
Whoever he is, there will be people who will say, oh, that's a moderate cancer.
22:33
They assume that they will elect someone who is less...
22:36
just less... less... less... kind of less colourful than Achmedine Jahn.
22:44
Immediately there will be interpretations that he is more serious, more moderate.
22:48
If he is moderate, I am too light.
22:50
That would make a difference.
22:52
He should get a chance or it will swallow another quarter.
22:56
So that's how 2013 is going to pass.
23:02
That's one of the reasons why I decided to leave,
23:05
because I don't see it converging into a moment, a real moment of truth or decision.
23:10
It can easily drag over another year.
23:13
But at a certain point they will return nuclear.
23:18
I told the President, I remember Clinton.
23:20
I never questioned his will to block the North level.
23:26
But somehow it didn't happen.
23:29
I told Jeff, I remember sitting with Bill Casey,
23:34
in the Reagan time, as head of our intelligence.
23:38
I got to Pakistan, it was exactly the same.
23:41
How many sites, how many centrifuges,
23:44
how about the plutonium bypass, where can they...
23:50
It didn't work.
23:51
Reagan wanted to see the non-nuclear,
23:53
but that's what might easily happen here.
24:02
And if it happens, now what?
24:05
First of all, it will be the end of any considerable non-proliferation regime.
24:14
Because it basically means that if you can defy the whole world,
24:17
if you have enough money, not huge amounts of money,
24:21
you will power.
24:22
And it will start a much more self-confident intimidation of neighbors.
24:32
But still the major supplier of oil to Europe, to the East, to the Faris.
24:38
And the regimes there are already kind of crushed between two powers.
24:47
One is Iran and the other is the Islamists in Turkey and Egypt.
24:51
These are two corner pillars, kind of pillars of the Middle East.
24:58
And the Saudi leadership, they are dying.
25:03
I don't know how you call the phenomena where a candle is just about to die.
25:07
Flicker.
25:08
Flicker.
25:09
Flicker.
25:10
Flicker.
25:11
The old mender is practically inactive.
25:16
The second is deep in dementia.
25:18
They now just nominated the third one, someone about our age,
25:25
who was the head of Intelligent Mukher.
25:29
But I don't believe that anyone sees him as a king.
25:33
Probably a knife, another carving will become ultimate.
25:38
But they are not self-confident.
25:40
And Abdallah of Jordan is not self-confident.
25:43
The UAE's, some of the Emirates are much more confident.
25:48
Because of their money.
25:50
But it's all…
25:51
The guitarists are kind of…
25:56
They behave, yeah.
25:58
They behave this way.
26:00
It's a…
26:01
I call them a TV station with an Emirates.
26:03
It's a…
26:04
It's a…
26:05
I don't know.
26:07
I met the…
26:09
The…
26:11
The…
26:12
The…
26:13
The…
26:14
The…
26:15
The…
26:16
In Munich.
26:17
Oh, he came?
26:18
Yeah.
26:19
He came to the security conference?
26:20
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
26:21
And I talked to him.
26:24
You know, it's…
26:25
The Americans…
26:26
I met Kerry this morning.
26:28
They don't know how to read the Qataris.
26:31
They are totally confused there.
26:33
And I told them they are just starting to hedge their bets against the possibility that you will be the…
26:41
We will be the losers and the Iranians will be the we.
26:44
That's all.
26:45
They start…
26:46
They start…
26:47
They see Turkey and Egypt under Islamist government.
26:51
So they become more Islamist.
26:53
They see the discrimination of the Iranians and what happens in Iraq.
26:58
So they turn more pro-Iranians.
27:00
So it ends up that they are less pro…
27:03
Pro…
27:04
Pro…
27:05
Pro us or pro the others.
27:06
It's…
27:07
That's…
27:08
They…
27:09
They…
27:10
They…
27:11
They're trying to survive.
27:12
Two years ago…
27:13
I asked…
27:14
Not him…
27:15
The other one…
27:16
I asked him…
27:17
Even then I asked him…
27:18
Are you starting to hedge your bets on this time?
27:22
He told me…
27:23
Look at Google Earth…
27:25
In front of our shows…
27:26
We will find certain place…
27:28
Where you can find two wells…
27:31
25 yards from each other.
27:33
One is other…
27:35
The other…
27:36
Is Iranian.
27:37
They were practically…
27:39
Drinking from the same…
27:42
The same…
27:43
The same…
27:44
The…
27:45
The…
27:46
The same…
27:47
Place…
27:48
Whoever has a bigger…
27:49
Shhh…
27:50
Higher diameter of…
27:51
Of a…
27:52
Of a…
27:53
Pipe takes more…
27:54
And so we have to take it into account.
27:57
So Middle Eastern…
28:03
What's happening in Egypt?
28:05
What's your…
28:06
Tell me…
28:07
I don't know…
28:08
I don't…
28:09
I don't…
28:10
I don't care today…
28:11
I think that…
28:12
You're the only players to have any leverage upon them…
28:15
Because…
28:16
In spite of all their bad kind of…
28:18
Ideology…
28:19
And kind of…
28:20
Extreme…
28:21
Vision…
28:24
There are practical people…
28:28
Morsi is an engineer…
28:30
Engineer…
28:31
Time's up…
28:32
Should be the same diameter…
28:34
The…
28:35
The bolt…
28:36
The…
28:37
The nut…
28:38
The…
28:39
It doesn't end with ideology…
28:40
The same spiral…
28:41
The…
28:42
The…
28:43
The…
28:44
Great leader…
28:45
Of the…
28:46
Muslim Brothers…
28:48
In…
28:49
Egypt…
28:50
Is not…
28:51
Unlike the…
28:52
Ayatollah…
28:53
He's not a religious scholar…
28:55
Veterinar…
28:56
Veterinar…
28:57
Veterinar…
28:58
You have to vaccine…
28:59
You have to make sure that the cow get pregnant…
29:01
It's…
29:02
Practical…
29:03
And…
29:04
The third one…
29:05
Is…
29:06
The one who…
29:07
Supposed to run for presidency…
29:08
Before…
29:09
He was…
29:10
Pushed…
29:11
By some tricks…
29:12
And mostly…
29:13
He can…
29:14
He's a businessman…
29:16
Medium…
29:17
Medium…
29:18
Side business…
29:19
Also…
29:20
They are all practical people…
29:21
So they need to feed 80 million…
29:23
88 million…
29:24
To create a million jobs…
29:26
Every year…
29:27
Probably more…
29:28
To…
29:29
To deal with the…
29:30
With the…
29:31
Presence of multinationals…
29:32
With…
29:33
Direct…
29:34
For that…
29:35
Investment…
29:36
To…
29:37
To…
29:38
To resume tourism…
29:39
To…
29:40
To…
29:41
To keep the…
29:42
The…
29:43
Canal working…
29:44
To keep Sinai…
29:45
Other…
29:46
They need you…
29:47
They need Americans…
29:48
They believe that America…
29:49
Gives orders…
29:51
To…
29:52
To World Bank…
29:53
To…
29:54
The IMF…
29:55
To…
29:56
Any other organization…
29:57
That they need…
29:58
To…
29:59
And…
30:00
They understand that…
30:01
It's all about economy…
30:02
And…
30:03
And…
30:04
They see…
30:05
They see…
30:06
After a very short time…
30:07
They see the…
30:08
This…
30:09
The…
30:10
The…
30:11
Kind of…
30:12
Stress of the public…
30:13
The resentment…
30:14
The rejection…
30:15
In the streets…
30:16
Right now…
30:17
So…
30:18
I believe that…
30:19
I believe that…
30:20
They could be…
30:21
Their…
30:22
Actual behavior…
30:23
Could be…
30:24
I even told…
30:25
My colleagues here…
30:26
That…
30:27
I didn't see…
30:28
Any reason…
30:29
To keep providing them…
30:30
With…
30:31
Military hardware…
30:32
Doesn't make sense…
30:33
They don't need…
30:34
Against Libya…
30:35
They don't need…
30:36
Against Sudan…
30:37
So…
30:38
Basically…
30:39
You…
30:40
And…
30:41
And then…
30:42
Israel asked…
30:43
To accumulate more…
30:44
And…
30:45
You pay both…
30:46
It's…
30:47
Unlike the…
30:48
Saudis…
30:49
And the…
30:50
Emirates…
30:51
Pay for whatever…
30:52
They want…
30:53
I told them…
30:54
Probably…
30:55
These…
30:56
These…
30:57
One half billion…
30:58
Or whatever…
30:59
And…
31:00
Pull it into their…
31:01
Economy…
31:02
Infrastructure…
31:03
Some…
31:04
Some…
31:05
Projects…
31:06
That you can never think…
31:07
About…
31:08
And we…
31:09
Deepen their…
31:10
Dependency…
31:14
The…
31:18
The future…
31:19
Of…
31:20
Uh…
31:21
Israel…
31:22
I mean…
31:23
Something will happen…
31:24
In Iran…
31:25
Maybe we'll succeed…
31:26
Maybe we won't…
31:27
But…
31:28
And that'll…
31:29
Make it worse…
31:30
But…
31:31
The demography…
31:32
Seems terrible…
31:33
Nobody sane…
31:34
Seems to be procreating…
31:35
And…
31:36
Everybody…
31:37
Is sane…
31:38
In their own way…
31:39
Seems to have…
31:40
Five children…
31:41
You know…
31:42
Whether it's Arabs…
31:43
Or Orthodox…
31:44
They have…
31:45
Five children…
31:46
Two children…
31:47
Two…
31:48
To…
31:49
The Haredim…
31:51
Are more productive…
31:52
Than the Arabs…
31:53
I think…
31:54
We…
31:55
We cancelled…
31:56
Some of the…
31:57
We had exponential…
31:59
Support function…
32:01
For…
32:02
For…
32:03
Productivity…
32:04
So…
32:05
Something bizarre…
32:06
Rather…
32:07
To be an…
32:08
It became…
32:09
Exponential…
32:10
I always…
32:11
When I…
32:12
Meet a friend…
32:13
With three children…
32:14
Tell him…
32:15
When you are…
32:16
Deep into the…
32:17
Social…
32:18
Security…
32:19
That's…
32:20
Your…
32:21
Job…
32:22
You can…
32:23
Sit…
32:24
I…
32:25
The…
32:26
No…
32:27
I…
32:28
I…
32:29
Don't…
32:30
The future…
32:31
Is…
32:32
Waking…
32:33
Waking…
32:34
Up…
32:35
A…
32:36
Drift…
32:37
Along…
32:38
The slippery slope…
32:39
To…
32:40
One-state nation…
32:41
First of all…
32:42
Because…
32:43
One-state nation…
32:44
Even faster…
32:45
Yeah…
32:46
It would be…
32:47
Bi-nation…
32:48
At first…
32:49
And then…
32:50
With…
32:51
With an Arab majority…
32:52
In fact…
32:53
One of…
32:54
Abu Mazen…
32:55
Karth…
32:56
Partners…
32:57
To…
32:58
Leadership…
32:59
Abu Allah…
33:00
He…
33:01
He was the one who negotiated with us…
33:03
And…
33:04
So…
33:05
Orland…
33:06
At a crucial point…
33:08
Some…
33:09
Five years ago…
33:10
When he negotiated with Zipi Livnik…
33:11
About…
33:12
Far from the public eye…
33:14
But…
33:15
Everyone knew…
33:16
And she demanded…
33:18
He will recognize…
33:20
The…
33:21
Jewish…
33:22
Israel…
33:23
The Jewish state…
33:24
Part of…
33:25
Any document…
33:26
And told her…
33:28
You know…
33:32
Lady…
33:33
It's…
33:34
You cannot do it…
33:36
If you continue with this demand…
33:38
Probably will turn it to…
33:40
One…
33:41
One state…
33:42
Big state…
33:43
From the…
33:44
Jordan to the…
33:45
The…
33:46
Lithuanian…
33:47
Every citizen will get a…
33:49
Vote…
33:50
And…
33:51
The…
33:52
Majority will decide…
33:53
What could be simpler…
33:54
So…
33:55
It's not a…
33:56
It's…
33:57
The…
33:58
The…
33:59
The…
34:00
The…
34:01
The…
34:02
The…
34:03
The…
34:04
Effective…
34:05
Blindness…
34:06
Of…
34:07
Our society…
34:08
You know…
34:09
The…
34:10
Sight field is not full…
34:11
You don't…
34:12
You don't…
34:13
Some people do not see…
34:14
Everything…
34:15
What's going to happen here…
34:16
They don't see…
34:17
Never…
34:18
So…
34:19
That's what happens to our society right now…
34:21
That's number one…
34:22
And that's why it's not a zero-sum game…
34:24
We are not making them a favor…
34:26
Doing a favor to the Palestinians…
34:28
Or to anyone…
34:29
But…
34:31
Even within the borders of smaller Israel…
34:34
There is still an issue…
34:36
And…
34:37
I think the Arabs are going…
34:41
Slowly…
34:42
They were…
34:43
40 years ago…
34:44
They were…
34:45
60%…
34:46
Now they are…
34:47
20%…
34:48
We should be able to make…
34:51
To provide equality…
34:53
First to the Duhuls…
34:54
They are about…
34:56
1%…
34:57
They are totally Israelis…
34:59
In their behavior…
35:00
By security people…
35:01
By…
35:02
The…
35:03
Military…
35:04
They are…
35:05
They came for the president…
35:06
Some generals…
35:07
Some pilots…
35:08
Are Duhuls…
35:09
Then we should take…
35:10
The…
35:11
Christian majority…
35:12
Minority…
35:13
They are about…
35:14
Another…
35:15
2%…
35:16
They…
35:17
Could become…
35:18
They have an education system…
35:19
Which is better than our…
35:21
Like…
35:22
Minority…
35:23
It reminds me…
35:24
Somehow…
35:25
Our students…
35:26
Especially…
35:27
Between…
35:28
The…
35:29
And…
35:30
The…
35:31
Minority…
35:33
They…
35:34
With a sense of being…
35:35
Kind of…
35:36
Isolated from…
35:37
They…
35:38
Accept…
35:39
Everything…
35:40
Then we have…
35:41
I believe…
35:42
We have to…
35:43
Break…
35:44
The monopoly…
35:45
Of the…
35:46
Orthodox…
35:47
Rabbi Knight…
35:48
On marriage…
35:49
And funerals…
35:50
And whatever…
35:51
And…
35:52
Definition…
35:53
With Jew…
35:54
And…
35:55
Accept…
35:56
Open…
35:57
In a…
35:58
Sophisticated…
35:59
Certain manner…
36:00
Open…
36:01
The gates…
36:02
From…
36:03
Conversion…
36:05
Into…
36:06
Judea…
36:07
It's a successful country…
36:08
Many will…
36:09
Apply…
36:10
At the beginning…
36:11
Without…
36:12
Making…
36:13
You cannot make it…
36:14
A precondition…
36:15
But…
36:16
Under the social pressure…
36:17
The need…
36:18
Especially…
36:19
Of the second generation…
36:20
To…
36:21
To adapt…
36:22
It…
36:23
It will happen…
36:24
And we can control the…
36:25
Quality…
36:26
More effectively…
36:27
Our…
36:28
Ancestors…
36:29
Or…
36:30
Fathers…
36:31
Of…
36:32
Israels…
36:33
Could…
36:34
Did…
36:35
With…
36:36
The waves…
36:37
That…
36:38
It was…
36:39
A kind of…
36:40
Salvation…
36:41
Now…
36:42
We can be selective…
36:43
And…
36:44
Uh…
36:45
I think…
36:46
That…
36:47
With…
36:48
Much more…
36:49
Open…
36:50
Kind of…
36:51
Mind…
36:52
About…
36:53
Turning…
36:57
Israels…
36:58
And…
36:59
Easily…
37:00
I…
37:01
I…
37:02
To…
37:03
Tell…
37:04
Putin…
37:05
What…
37:06
We need…
37:07
Is not…
37:08
Just…
37:09
One more…
37:10
Million…
37:11
It…
37:12
Changed…
37:13
Israels…
37:14
In a dramatic…
37:15
Dramatic…
37:16
Dramatic…
37:17
Dramatic…
37:18
Dramatic…
37:19
Dramatic…
37:20
Dramatic…
37:21
Dramatic…
37:22
Dramatic…
37:23
Dramatic…
37:24
Dramatic…
37:25
We now…
37:26
Have…
37:27
We used to…
37:28
There you come…
37:29
Maybe…
37:30
You interview someone…
37:31
Entering…
37:32
You know…
37:33
Into some…
37:34
Unit…
37:35
In the army…
37:36
What's your name?
37:37
He answers…
37:38
Sergei Biton…
37:39
Already…
37:40
Start to work together…
37:41
Sergei Biton…
37:43
Vladimir…
37:44
But…
37:45
Fine…
37:46
I think…
37:49
That…
37:50
I'm optimistic…
37:51
There's some…
37:52
Necessity…
37:53
Creates…
37:54
More flexibility…
37:55
And we have the background…
37:56
It depends on what you look for…
37:58
The…
37:59
I used to…
38:00
Scorn…
38:01
The…
38:02
Haredim…
38:03
All the time…
38:04
About the…
38:05
Bedouin…
38:06
Wife…
38:07
Of Moses…
38:08
He went to the…
38:09
The…
38:10
The Bedouin…
38:11
Wife…
38:12
Or the…
38:13
Grand…
38:14
Grandmother…
38:15
Of…
38:16
King David…
38:17
She was Moabite…
38:18
That…
38:19
Seduced…
38:20
His…
38:21
And all story is there…
38:28
So we can be more…
38:29
Is there any recognition…
38:31
Of…
38:32
I mean…
38:33
What you said about…
38:34
Smaller Israel…
38:35
Not bigger Israel…
38:36
Is the only prospect…
38:37
That seems right…
38:38
But there doesn't seem to be…
38:40
Any recognition…
38:42
Within the country…
38:43
There is…
38:44
There is certain…
38:46
Under…
38:47
Under…
38:48
Lying…
38:49
Recognition…
38:50
It's not…
38:51
You know…
38:52
We had the…
38:53
Quite surrealistic…
38:55
Election…
38:56
Right now…
38:57
That…
38:58
These questions…
38:59
Are extremely…
39:00
Both Iran…
39:01
And the…
39:02
Palestinian issue…
39:03
And whatever…
39:04
But the whole discussion…
39:05
Was about…
39:06
The…
39:07
Draft law…
39:08
For Haredim…
39:09
And…
39:10
The…
39:11
Memories…
39:12
Of…
39:13
The…
39:14
We had much more…
39:15
Genuine…
39:16
Occupy…
39:18
Wall Street…
39:19
Kind of…
39:20
More genuine…
39:21
Genuine…
39:22
Really…
39:23
Mobilized…
39:24
Massive…
39:25
And they appeared…
39:26
They took…
39:27
The son of…
39:28
Tommy Lapid…
39:29
The journalist…
39:30
Everyone knows…
39:31
Because he…
39:32
Handsome…
39:33
And he appears…
39:34
Every…
39:35
Friday evening…
39:36
Most popular…
39:37
TV…
39:38
And he became…
39:39
Out of nowhere…
39:40
Not a drop…
39:41
Of a…
39:43
It's like taking a present…
39:44
Of a bank…
39:45
Making…
39:46
And they became…
39:48
The second…
39:49
Largest…
39:50
Right…
39:51
But that reflects…
39:52
Somehow…
39:53
The…
39:54
Uneasiness…
39:55
Of the mainstream…
39:56
Israels…
39:57
The…
39:58
Old…
39:59
Elites…
40:00
And the youngsters…
40:01
From…
40:02
What we are doing…
40:03
So…
40:04
I think…
40:05
That probably…
40:06
A wake-up call…
40:07
Will come…
40:08
This way…
40:09
I always hope…
40:10
Not through…
40:11
A painful crisis…
40:12
Where you have to…
40:15
To…
40:16
To…
40:17
But through…
40:18
Something softer…
40:19
But basically…
40:20
There is a clear…
40:21
Whoever…
40:22
Is ready…
40:23
To think of it…
40:24
Independently…
40:25
Knows…
40:26
What should be done…
40:27
We should launch…
40:28
Immediately…
40:29
Dramatic…
40:30
Effort…
40:31
To…
40:32
Yield…
40:33
Yield…
40:34
The fully-fledged peace…
40:35
But it can yield…
40:36
Quite easily…
40:37
An interim agreement…
40:38
Where we…
40:39
Set…
40:40
A solution…
40:41
For borders…
40:42
And security…
40:43
And the world…
40:44
Guarantees…
40:45
The Palestinians…
40:46
That it will not…
40:47
Remain so…
40:48
That within five years…
40:49
There will be…
40:50
A solution…
40:51
For…
40:52
I think…
40:54
That we have to…
40:55
Launch…
40:56
Immediately…
40:57
With the American…
40:58
Effort…
40:59
To create…
41:00
Regional security…
41:01
System…
41:02
Based on…
41:03
America…
41:04
Europe…
41:05
The moderate…
41:06
Arab countries…
41:07
And Israel…
41:08
Blocking…
41:09
Fundamentalist…
41:10
Terror…
41:11
Islamist…
41:12
Terror…
41:13
Missile…
41:14
Defense…
41:15
And…
41:16
Cornering…
41:17
Iran…
41:18
And…
41:19
Coming to terms…
41:20
On what…
41:21
With the…
41:22
Islamist…
41:23
Government…
41:24
And that…
41:25
Will help…
41:26
Those…
41:28
The fact…
41:29
That we are moving…
41:30
With the Palestinians…
41:31
Will help…
41:32
Those…
41:33
Moderate…
41:34
Sunite…
41:35
Leaders…
41:36
To…
41:37
Join hands…
41:38
With us…
41:39
And Americans…
41:40
With Iran…
41:41
Because…
41:42
They…
41:43
Personally…
41:44
They don't care about…
41:45
Palestinians…
41:46
Probably…
41:47
But…
41:48
They are fully aware…
41:49
That their peoples…
41:50
In their streets…
41:51
There will be…
41:52
A very high price…
41:53
To work with Israel…
41:54
Or to modify…
41:55
The tensions…
41:56
If we are not going…
41:57
With the Palestinians…
41:58
And for the Israeli public…
41:59
This will create…
42:00
A kind of framework…
42:01
Or something…
42:02
Reasonably…
42:03
We join hands…
42:04
We do not…
42:05
Promise…
42:06
Heaven on earth…
42:07
We join hands…
42:08
With the…
42:09
White people…
42:10
In the region…
42:11
The world…
42:12
To solve…
42:13
Concrete issues…
42:14
It will help a lot…
42:15
To…
42:16
To…
42:17
To…
42:18
Reduce…
42:19
The tensions…
42:23
And even…
42:24
Somehow…
42:25
To…
42:26
I think…
42:28
That…
42:29
When you focus…
42:30
On the…
42:31
Palestinian…
42:32
Israel…
42:33
Israels…
42:34
Feel…
42:35
Friars…
42:36
If they…
42:37
If they…
42:38
Go to peace…
42:39
Go to peace…
42:40
Because…
42:41
They remember…
42:42
I pulled out…
42:43
From Lebanon…
42:44
There are…
42:45
Sixty thousand…
42:46
Rocksmiths…
42:47
Sharon pulled out…
42:48
From Gaza…
42:49
We will…
42:50
From…
42:51
There will be…
42:52
Just…
42:53
Behind…
42:54
You know…
42:55
When you come…
42:56
To…
42:57
To…
42:58
To…
42:59
People…
43:00
People…
43:01
People…
43:02
Feel…
43:03
That…
43:04
We are only giving…
43:05
We cannot…
43:06
Get anything…
43:07
And…
43:08
It's true…
43:09
From the…
43:10
Palestinians…
43:11
We cannot…
43:12
Get anything…
43:13
But…
43:14
Once…
43:15
You put…
43:16
Into…
43:17
The…
43:18
The…
43:19
The…
43:20
It ends up…
43:21
That we get a lot…
43:22
Recognition…
43:23
From…
43:24
That's been the argument…
43:25
But…
43:26
The problem is…
43:27
That's been the argument…
43:28
For…
43:29
That…
43:30
Something…
43:31
Last twenty years…
43:32
Last…
43:33
Yeah…
43:34
I was gonna say…
43:35
The last fifteen years…
43:36
And it seems like…
43:37
It's…
43:38
Less…
43:39
It's a less…
43:40
It's a less…
43:41
Strong argument…
43:42
That's a success…
43:43
Of…
43:44
In the negative sense…
43:46
He…
43:47
He…
43:48
He…
43:49
He…
43:50
Became successful…
43:51
In convincing…
43:52
Our people…
43:53
That we…
43:54
Did our…
43:55
Part of it…
43:56
That we…
43:57
That we…
43:58
All the responsibility…
43:59
Is upon the shoulders…
44:00
Of Abu Mazen…
44:01
Which is not true…
44:02
We…
44:03
Never tried…
44:04
In the last…
44:05
Four years…
44:06
To…
44:09
To make…
44:10
We…
44:11
Never ready…
44:12
To make…
44:13
Painful decisions…
44:14
In order…
44:15
To…
44:16
To make…
44:17
What happens…
44:18
Would be…
44:19
To make…
44:20
A Very good…
44:21
To make…
44:22
Yeah…
44:23
The Americans…
44:24
Made…
44:25
A lot of mistakes…
44:26
That doesn't…
44:27
Uhh…
44:28
Cannot…
44:29
Justify…
44:30
Our…
44:31
I don't know…
44:32
Put it…
44:34
Failure for…
44:36
Yeah…
44:37
And it's true…
44:38
Abu Mazen…
44:39
Doesn't help…
44:40
He's not…
44:41
He's not…
44:42
Do people expect that Obama and Kerry are going to invest heavily in Israel-Palestinians?
44:52
No, I don't think so.
44:54
Or that they're going to stay away from it?
44:56
Probably they dream about it, but I don't think.
45:01
I think the reading of Obama with it is that he has to do it.
45:07
There are even some stories that it was born in not exactly a normal way.
45:15
But Peres, who got here a kind of liberty medal, planned to bring Obama in June,
45:27
to bring him some medal of the Israeli president,
45:32
to participate in a conference that Peres initiates last several years, every June,
45:39
and to participate in his 90th birthday.
45:44
If you can't arrange a funeral, at least arrange a birthday.
45:48
And it was promoted by some people who supported Obama actively.
46:02
So he said, okay, yes, no problem.
46:06
Then his people heard about it, and some Jewish members heard about it,
46:12
and said, are you crazy? Are you going to make a private visit to Shimon Peres after five years?
46:17
You missed Israel.
46:19
The only way is to make a formal visit, and to be hosted by the Prime Minister.
46:25
So he found himself there. Then he thought twice and thought, yeah, it's not that bad.
46:31
Probably just to make sure that I cease to be the reason for everything,
46:37
the fact that I didn't visit Israel, now that because of this everything is done.
46:44
So, okay, let's be there, visit all the capital, talk to the people.
46:49
So, I don't think this is going to dramatically.
46:56
I mean, Clinton, you know this, you would know infinitely better than I,
47:01
but Clinton at a certain point decided that this was his path to a Nobel Prize in history.
47:08
Yeah.
47:09
And I don't think, Obama does not feel on that trajectory to me.
47:13
He's got it already.
47:14
But Kerry, it seems to me, will decide that's what he wants to do, won't he?
47:19
Yeah.
47:20
I mean, the imperatives of Kerry's job are that if he wants to have a historic achievement to end his career,
47:27
he's not going to get a historic achievement out of anything they do in the Pacific.
47:32
I think he understands it, he plans to come to Israel probably even before, I don't know how to cut it.
47:41
Just take it.
47:43
I don't want to take so much.
47:45
I know, you can leave it on your plate.
47:47
I think that Kerry made several missions for Obama in the past four years,
48:07
sometimes with Palestinians.
48:12
I can understand.
48:13
Sometimes with Karzai.
48:15
Karzai, that's far from our middle.
48:19
That was Assad, the younger side.
48:24
When he came as a kind of freelancer, he used to be always over-ensociated.
48:30
If by his very enthusiasm he will, it will...
48:34
Infect him.
48:36
Yeah, you call it, yeah.
48:37
Contagion will take place and they will all...
48:40
Ensociated, before they land, they will have a...
48:48
I think...
48:50
I looked at him, I spent some time with him one on one.
48:54
He is more realistic now.
48:56
Because of this.
48:58
So he knows, and he knows that he comes a little bit too early.
49:03
Bibi doesn't have a fixed idea about what should be done,
49:07
and then he makes the government, the government that can do it.
49:11
He just waits to see what kind of government he has,
49:14
and then he will modify what he wants to achieve.
49:17
If Kerry comes too late, too early for this.
49:21
But he wants to make sure that Abu Mazen is with him and will not disappear.
49:26
That's all.
49:27
He is more realistic.
49:28
He will try.
49:29
But...
49:30
I see...
49:31
He needs a lot of luck.
49:33
Probably some intervention from Heaven or some other players too.
49:38
An opportunity for a fully fledged agreement to be created.
49:44
Larry, since you left, who is now going to be leaving government,
49:55
he is going to go into the real world after 50 years.
50:00
It was his birthday two days ago, your birthday, yes?
50:03
Uh-huh.
50:04
How old are you?
50:06
71.
50:10
I was born exactly six scores and 13 years after Lincoln.
50:17
Same day.
50:20
And have you ever been in the private sector?
50:23
Yeah.
50:24
You have been in government...
50:25
I have been for several years.
50:26
You were for several years after you were prime minister?
50:29
Yeah.
50:30
You were in the private sector and...
50:33
Yeah.
50:34
You were doing various kinds of business and...
50:37
Yeah.
50:38
I was involved with two.
50:40
Small private equity.
50:42
Firms as a part of the general partner.
50:47
And they have advice to several...
50:53
Some of the biggest hedge funds and private equity.
50:57
There's a consultant and made some lectures.
51:05
And participate in some small-scale opportunities.
51:09
Some Israel companies wanted to work in Africa, make IPO in London.
51:13
They need someone who can be with them when they come to London,
51:18
and the people will listen to them or whatever.
51:24
And is that the kind of thing you're going to...
51:26
Is that the kind of thing...
51:27
I don't know.
51:28
You're going to try...
51:29
You're going to try to do now?
51:30
I don't know.
51:31
I think of making...
51:32
Finding ways to make more money and to do something more substantive.
51:37
I can't go with my agent from this position and start to actively, on a high-resolution level,
51:49
running an operation as a CEO or whatever.
51:53
That's a little bit too late in life.
51:56
And are you...
52:00
Do you think you're now done with government?
52:03
Hippocopio, Kisa?
52:04
Oh, tea, please.
52:06
Yeah.
52:07
Do you think you're now done?
52:09
Or do you...
52:10
Ayashenum...
52:11
Or do you always looking for...
52:14
No.
52:15
I mean, Israeli politics...
52:16
I'm not looking.
52:17
...is very cyclical.
52:19
I don't have any kind of burning, compelling motive to come back and prove something justified.
52:33
But with our kind of eclectic, chaotic kind of move in the stage where we are,
52:46
I cannot exclude that under certain types of crisis I might be called to play a certain role.
52:57
I am not...
52:58
I don't look backward with any kind of hard feelings or needs.
53:03
Unlike, I don't know, if you knew Sharon.
53:08
Sharon was burning with a kind of sense of something that had not been completed
53:15
from the time he could not become the chief of Staten.
53:18
He could not become a prime minister.
53:21
He was a defense minister who was sent out under a kind of inquiry commission
53:25
that blamed him with some mishaps and so ever.
53:29
So he was burning it.
53:31
And he didn't see even the lines.
53:34
He basically got a stroke in the evening or the morning.
53:38
The major headline said that he got, according to the police,
53:42
3.5 billion as a bribe to finance some kind of political activity.
53:49
Even Rabin was burning with need to come back after his first...
53:56
I don't have a... fully satisfied.
54:00
But I know that I might be called.
54:03
So I would not do something that deliberately and for sure will close the way back.
54:12
But I would not hesitate to go something that might, with significant probability,
54:18
will scratch me in a way that will make it almost impossible to come back.
54:28
Probably the way to have the greatest chance to come back is to look least interested and eager to come back.
54:56
I think that's an irony of...
54:58
I think an irony of political life is that when you look like you don't need it,
55:03
and don't want it...
55:06
There you go.
55:08
It's... you become more... you become more... you become more desirable.
55:13
You become more desirable as a... as a consequence.
55:19
But you'd like... you would go back to government at this stage?
55:23
I'm like he... I'm... I wasn't prime minister... I wasn't prime minister of my country,
55:28
and I'm not going to be president... I'm not going to be president of my... of my country.
55:37
I am, I think, in the same general... I'm a little younger. I'm 58.
55:43
But I'm in the same general place, I think, that... that Ehud is.
55:49
There were moments in my life when I was burning to do things.
55:54
I was... you know, in the 1990s, I was burning to become secretary of the treasury.
56:00
I was very... I very much wanted to go back into government and help do something about this financial...
56:09
this financial crisis in 2008.
56:13
Now, if there was... if there was... if the right role... if the right role presented itself...
56:19
at all of that, I would go... I don't want to do anything that would...
56:25
I don't want to carelessly foreclose options, since I don't know what I'm going to want in the future.
56:35
But, unlike... to take somebody I was friendly with... Richard Holbrooke...
56:42
Whenever Richard Holbrooke was not in government...
56:45
No. He was...
56:46
His whole life was organized around...
56:49
figuring out how to maximize the chance...
56:53
Yeah.
56:54
...of getting back into government.
56:56
I remember when I would travel, people would ask me... you know...
57:00
Before 2008, people... I remember in India once... they asked me...
57:05
You know, where was the Democratic Party...
57:08
Where's the Democratic Party going to be on the non-proliferation agreement?
57:12
And I said to... and they had been talking about Holbrooke...
57:14
And I said, well, what did Holbrooke think?
57:17
And... they said...
57:19
Well, Holbrooke thinks it's a good idea.
57:20
Holbrooke's supporting our position.
57:22
And I said, well, then the Democratic Party will support it.
57:25
And they said...
57:26
I remember somebody saying...
57:27
Does he have that much influence?
57:30
I said...
57:31
No.
57:32
No, but he...
57:34
But I promise...
57:35
He will not have taken a position...
57:37
On the record...
57:39
That has any substantial chance...
57:41
Of being opposed...
57:42
By whoever the Democratic presidential candidate will be.
57:45
So...
57:46
I don't want to live my life...
57:50
He was in a way...
57:52
Suppressed...
57:54
Depressed...
57:55
When he was out of...
57:57
He never really enjoyed being out of government Holbrooke.
58:01
No.
58:02
It was all about getting back into...
58:03
Yeah.
58:04
It was all about getting back into government.
58:08
People say...
58:09
I have not...
58:10
I've known him fairly well for the last 15 years or so, but I didn't know him before.
58:18
People said that it took Kissinger a long time to come to terms with the fact...
58:28
That he doesn't influence anymore.
58:30
Well, that he wasn't going back into government.
58:33
That for a long time he was organized around going back into government.
58:38
And at a certain point he decided to become a...
58:46
Decided to have a different kind of role and was sort of happy having that kind of role.
58:57
My challenge has been...
58:58
I don't know whether you found this.
58:59
It sounds from the way you spoke like you found it.
59:03
My challenge was relative to the expectations of being a professor or being a government official.
59:14
It was fairly easy to make substantial amounts of money.
59:21
Not money like Jeffrey and some of his friends.
59:23
Oh, yeah.
59:24
But money like...
59:25
Oh, no.
59:26
Money that was like a lot of money from my point of view.
59:27
Yeah.
59:28
The challenge is...
59:30
And it's actually not that hard to do things that are reasonably pleasant and kind of interesting.
59:38
What is hard is doing things that cause you to have adrenaline.
59:45
Cause you have?
59:46
Adrenaline.
59:47
Excitement, yeah.
59:48
That are exciting.
59:49
Where you like...
59:50
Yeah, yeah.
59:51
Where you...
59:52
That depends.
59:53
It depends.
59:54
It probably depends how deep you go.
59:57
In my last round in business, you know, I have a friend who was very successful in venture capital.
1:00:05
The very beginning of the hype.
1:00:10
And he asked me to work with him.
1:00:12
And after several months he told a common friend of us that Ehud is not hungry enough.
1:00:20
But I feel more hungry now than then.
1:00:23
Because then I still thought that I might come back within several years.
1:00:28
And now I don't have any problem with not going with finding something that should be fun and very profitable and fun at least some of the time.
1:00:44
You know, in my experience even politics was not always fun and even science, you know, before I choose to go to the military career rather than to science, I spent a summer at the Weizmann Institute.
1:00:59
Yes, I met yesterday a Nobel Prize laureate in astrophysics that worked together with a member of my class in Israel, also astrophysicists.
1:01:13
And he told him that we worked together in the Weizmann Institute.
1:01:19
So after this summer he decided to stay in science and I decided that we were working all the summer on photographs from bubble cells, you know, the kind of hydrogen under heavy magnetic fields.
1:01:38
The preliminary CERN operation about identifying the kind of behavior of particles.
1:01:46
And I've seen we were six labs working all over Europe and Israel on the same one million photographs.
1:01:54
And after a year and a half the professors sat down together, decided what to do.
1:02:00
Young P.E.G. through the greatest idea and the professors went to the congresses abroad to represent it and so on.
1:02:09
And I found the relation between the fascinating work in the last six weeks and the extremely boring looking of a picture after picture to see some abnormality in the behavior of all this bubble chamber.
1:02:25
And I decided to go there. So somehow I don't think that any, probably, paintings or sculptures that…
1:02:34
So nothing is fun all around.
1:02:38
No, the question is whether… the question is finding…
1:02:43
Something that leaves…
1:02:44
Something that makes a change.
1:02:45
Adrenaline.
1:02:46
Adrenaline.
1:02:47
Where you feel like it's…
1:02:49
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:02:50
It's not just achievement.
1:02:51
It's meaning.
1:02:52
That there is some meaning.
1:02:53
Something which is important to you.
1:02:54
Some high meaning which depends on both what the thing is…
1:02:59
Yeah.
1:03:00
And how large your, you know, what your role…
1:03:10
Yeah.
1:03:11
Yeah, it's about something that goes beyond your body and beyond your time.
1:03:16
Something important, really important.
1:03:18
It's not complicated.
1:03:19
Yeah.
1:03:20
I don't think that there are many things.
1:03:22
You are probably at earlier age than all of us.
1:03:25
Someone can gamble on some idea and want to build something from scratch that has never been there and changed a certain part of the world.
1:03:34
It's not for us.
1:03:36
The most we can do is to use our capacity to integrate things, still to make judgments and to make good recommendations,
1:03:46
to back up what we say by two or three layers deeper into certain areas where we feel confident.
1:03:56
And probably to find a way to join such efforts in a way that creates synergy between several kinds of us.
1:04:03
I think that there could be, you know, I spent probably all the day last Saturday or the week before, the week before, in Munich,
1:04:15
meeting with only, I don't know, 20 ministers of foreign affairs and heads of state who were invited there.
1:04:27
From Georgia, Mongolia, Montenegro, Albania, Zagreb, Estonia.
1:04:37
And you see how much these guys, you know, some of them at the very kind of primordial but empiric phases of normalizing a society or state,
1:04:53
facing huge challenges and having huge potentials in a way.
1:05:01
And they don't know how to, don't feel confident about how to move in economy, how to move in finance, how to move in security,
1:05:10
how to move in international relations, how to move in international relations positions and such.
1:05:16
I think that working on such projects could be fascinating.
1:05:22
Because you see embryonic nations, some of them have been born as nations, they have all the identities.
1:05:34
And they look, think that for you is something that's long behind you, is their great next challenge sometimes.
1:05:42
And that could be something of importance.
1:05:45
I've never been to Montenegro or Mongolia, but I assume if you go to Mongolia, you see this nomadic earth.
1:05:55
The most interesting thing I have heard about them participating in gathering by some NGO in Davos about micro-insurance.
1:06:05
They want to copy the idea of micro-financing to micro-insurance.
1:06:09
And someone told a story that they went with micro-insurance against the weather to Mongolia.
1:06:19
And they had to set a way how to calculate.
1:06:24
I passed a kind of equal judgment about what to pay, how to create a parameter,
1:06:31
because you cannot go to Mongolia to take case by case.
1:06:36
So one parameter was the size of the earth that you own.
1:06:40
Right.
1:06:41
Because they didn't get someone from the locals to work with them.
1:06:46
It ended up that they set the counting station at some point in this hilly landscape.
1:06:56
And many of the shepherds identified immediately, without knowing anything about what you call it, that that's a parameter.
1:07:04
And the earth were moving around.
1:07:06
They didn't put a stamp on any...
1:07:10
So it's full of...
1:07:14
You find it so, so, so deeply backward.
1:07:19
That it gives a sense of something that you can do with all that you accumulated.
1:07:25
To make...
1:07:27
You cannot invent a vaccine against, I know, some remote parasite in Africa.
1:07:35
But in sub-Saharan Africa.
1:07:37
There are huge opportunities to help them.
1:07:40
There are many, many corrupt people.
1:07:43
It will take time for probably a generation down the street.
1:07:47
They will keep robbing their natural resources by the elites.
1:07:52
But they are still moving forward.
1:07:55
It cannot be denied when you compare them to 20 or 40 years ago.
1:07:59
I think that could be...
1:08:04
I think, you see, the two of you, that's why I wanted to...
1:08:07
The two areas, I think, these nations, these beginning nation states, whether Mongolia or parts of Africa or even Kazakhstan has a lot of money, but they're not...
1:08:16
The sophistication is 20, 10 years back.
1:08:19
The cellular service being sort of a prime example of not being burdened with copper in the ground and fiber so you can go right to cellular phone.
1:08:28
You have this leapfrog.
1:08:29
And I think you're both a little crazy in the fact that in terms of compensation and money, the two hottest areas is...
1:08:38
Every country wants to be now in the world of finance.
1:08:41
They're not really talking about manufacturing as...
1:08:45
If you're a leader, you're talking about food security.
1:08:48
You're not talking about a production line.
1:08:50
You want to explore natural resources, but you want to exploit your natural resources for an economy.
1:08:56
And you want to have two things.
1:08:58
You want to have economy, and you want to have money, and security.
1:09:01
So that you two are really, I think, in the primaries positions for the current time.
1:09:08
I don't know if it lasts more than 5, 10 years.
1:09:11
Maybe something else takes over.
1:09:13
You...
1:09:14
We're not interested in development more than 70 years.
1:09:17
No, but security...
1:09:20
I think you need to think about how to break it down. Cybersecurity.
1:09:23
Yeah.
1:09:24
I just...
1:09:25
That's the hot...
1:09:26
I think it's going to be the hot button for the next two years.
1:09:29
Yeah.
1:09:30
Big time.
1:09:31
Yeah.
1:09:32
Border security is less of an issue, and a lot of people can handle it.
1:09:35
But the expertise...
1:09:36
Social security is something.
1:09:37
Because in many of these countries, they don't know even how to approach it.
1:09:40
Yes.
1:09:41
How to approach on a national level issues.
1:09:43
Security of a country in the backyard of Europe, like Montenegro, Albania, Estonia, or Latvia.
1:09:53
And on the other hand, in a totally different situation, the security of Mongolia or Kazakhstan.
1:10:00
Right.
1:10:01
They don't even have...
1:10:03
They don't know what to do, so they do what they know.
1:10:07
They issue bits and take some...
1:10:10
And that's it.
1:10:11
They don't build even national security in a proper way.
1:10:15
The last guy who comes to them with some impressive ideas and good margins, they fall into the trap.
1:10:26
But if you were advising Mongolia on security...
1:10:29
See, again, I'm not sure...
1:10:30
The general security...
1:10:32
What is that...
1:10:33
How do you start?
1:10:34
What's the first...
1:10:35
Step one through five is why?
1:10:36
From budget to what to do and what not to do.
1:10:40
And how to do it effectively.
1:10:42
And what could not be treated by any kind of security, but by diplomacy.
1:10:48
And probably even...
1:10:50
You know, I met with the Foreign Minister of the National Security Advisor,
1:10:53
and they insisted on sending a delegation to Israel for a small country.
1:10:58
Sure.
1:10:59
Hostile.
1:11:00
They are good people, but they are so, so far behind.
1:11:07
It's like coming to a seminar at the university about some issue.
1:11:12
I don't know.
1:11:13
They have something.
1:11:14
They are responsible for the country.
1:11:16
They try to act.
1:11:17
But they never thought of how to balance, how to approach this issue.
1:11:24
What's worth investing in, what's not worth investing in.
1:11:29
How to make the major effort they are doing now with multinationals to balance their approach to mining.
1:11:39
How to combine this with security, first of all, the security of the mining fields and the security of the whole area.
1:11:49
They are trying to find a way.
1:11:57
They are reasonable people, but they are afraid.
1:12:00
They are afraid that some of the advice that they are given are motivated by great powers behind those who advise them.
1:12:09
The issue of trust.
1:12:10
Of course they don't know what to do with the economy.
1:12:15
And even what to do with the money they can get.
1:12:18
How to use the potential.
1:12:21
How to develop what should be taken by the state.
1:12:25
How to make the big companies participate in it.
1:12:29
How you can leverage them to do it.
1:12:31
How to make them...
1:12:33
How to keep the edge of being the owner of the whole thing.
1:12:37
Beyond the first signature on a document.
1:12:40
They are not, you know, it's not simply.
1:12:43
Nothing.
1:12:44
You were saying before you came in that there are a lot of...
1:12:50
That you think there are a lot of these people who really are very hungry for...
1:12:54
Yes.
1:12:55
I think.
1:12:56
You see it, right?
1:12:57
I feel the same.
1:12:58
I feel that if...
1:13:00
That's a hypothesis.
1:13:02
I spoke to a friend of mine that became a friend of Jeff as well.
1:13:08
A guy who works with Ban Ki-moon.
1:13:13
For one dollar peri named Terry Alarsson.
1:13:15
He's a Norwegian diplomat.
1:13:16
His wife is Norwegian.
1:13:18
He had some trouble so he left the public service.
1:13:23
His wife remained there.
1:13:25
And he travels all around the world on behalf of the...
1:13:29
Now I assume for a moment.
1:13:31
That you and Jeff and myself and this Terry Alars.
1:13:35
Establish a consulting group that takes on the basis of countries, sovereigns.
1:13:42
To give them advice.
1:13:45
Strategic advice on macro economy, finance, security and international relationship.
1:13:56
And these all things for leaders.
1:13:58
Even democracy for government.
1:14:01
But clearly for more kind of autocratic leaders.
1:14:04
It's a gestalt.
1:14:05
They don't really see a difference.
1:14:07
Everything touches everything.
1:14:09
And if some group that has kind of talked to each other quickly or intelligently.
1:14:17
Give them advice.
1:14:19
It's worth money.
1:14:20
And for some of them, you know, think of Kazakhstan can pay.
1:14:24
In fact they are paying.
1:14:25
They are paying.
1:14:26
By now they are paying for more than one...
1:14:29
In more than one channel.
1:14:30
They want a second opinion, a third opinion.
1:14:33
And a special opinion on this and that.
1:14:36
They pay quite a lot of money.
1:14:38
They have this money.
1:14:39
For taking consults.
1:14:42
Sometimes they see it as not just consulting.
1:14:46
All these sovereigns.
1:14:49
They think that if they will choose the right people.
1:14:52
They get certain edge in nothing.
1:14:55
Probably not in lobbying.
1:14:57
Not in active lobbying.
1:14:58
But in helping them to find a way.
1:15:02
Navigating issues that they have with international bodies and with NGOs.
1:15:07
And sometimes even to ask those advisors.
1:15:11
To find who could be the lobbyist.
1:15:14
If they have to pass certain...
1:15:16
I remember Nazarbayev came to me 10 years ago.
1:15:19
Because he was isolated.
1:15:21
He was frightened by some investigation.
1:15:24
He was around from the United States, I believe.
1:15:28
About some behaviors of his government.
1:15:32
Sometimes they need an access to the ECB.
1:15:37
To the World Bank.
1:15:38
To...
1:15:39
To...
1:15:40
To...
1:15:41
You have to be careful of this.
1:15:43
I mean, I...
1:15:45
You know, it's a little different.
1:15:47
It's probably a little better.
1:15:49
They probably need access to America more often than they need access to Israel.
1:15:53
Yeah, but they rely more on the advice from Israel than the advice from America.
1:15:58
Because Israel's problems are more like their problems.
1:16:00
No, because Israel is small enough not to threaten.
1:16:03
Right.
1:16:04
You know, we are supposed to have good contacts all around the world.
1:16:07
That's right.
1:16:08
You know, when I talk to the Mongolians, they asked me,
1:16:11
Can you talk to Putin?
1:16:12
I said yes.
1:16:13
Can I talk to him?
1:16:14
Yes.
1:16:15
It's important for them.
1:16:17
Because there are certain...
1:16:19
Many antagonisms.
1:16:21
And if a Russian...
1:16:24
If a Russian would come to them, they would think that he works for Putin.
1:16:28
If an American comes, they might find that they find themselves within a bigger gate.
1:16:33
So we have...
1:16:34
No, that's right.
1:16:35
No, that's right.
1:16:36
We have certain kinds of things of being connected in the world and not threatening anyone.
1:16:40
And you have a sense of having been extraordinarily effective given your...
1:16:52
I mean, Israel has a sense of having been extraordinarily successful, effective, and strong given its location and its size.
1:17:01
Yeah.
1:17:02
And so, you know...
1:17:03
And a human capital.
1:17:04
I'm not sure whether you have the same human capital in Mongolia, but they know it as well.
1:17:08
No, but I think if you're a Mongolian or a Kazakhstan, you know, I'd like to have a generation ahead, like Israel had, which is a natural way to think.
1:17:23
Whereas, I'd like to have a generation like the United States. It's different.
1:17:28
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:17:29
They're just going to be in a different kind of...
1:17:32
No, we are also a source of unique cutting-edge knowledge, Israel, in some issues which are extremely important for them.
1:17:44
Water processing and both disseminating reuse of water and even the effectiveness of use of it in agriculture in semi-aroid areas.
1:17:57
We have the most sophisticated agriculture on earth.
1:18:01
The real point is that all players are Israeli, so they sometimes take, you know, two kilograms of newly manufactured, genetically manufactured seeds,
1:18:12
bring them to Cuba or some... Angola or wherever, and within five years we have competitors.
1:18:20
So we have to excel in running ahead of the wave in R&D.
1:18:26
And we are doing it in agriculture, and you know better than me that there is a need to probably double the food production within a generation or so without...
1:18:38
So you are, you and I are going to tell them what seeds they want to use.
1:18:43
Yeah, yeah, not, but what the direction could be.
1:18:47
Or do they connect them to the people who are going to tell them that.
1:18:49
Geoffrey can tell us that there could be certain kind of practical economic benefit from being able to be the one who point to them,
1:19:06
genuine, sincere players in certain areas. But you know who are you going to recommend in advance.
1:19:14
You can leverage this kind of having the trust of a government.
1:19:23
Like be it Montenegro, Latvia, of course the Danish government doesn't need it.
1:19:29
But all these governments which are not yet self-confident enough, they feel that they need it.
1:19:36
They need experienced people who doesn't...
1:19:40
You say it's not India.
1:19:41
You say it's not India, but it doesn't...
1:19:42
You say it's not India, but it doesn't...
1:19:43
Doesn't lose their sleep at night if they hear of major problems in some country, they face that issue.
1:19:49
You say it's not India, but it is Mongolia, and maybe it's Sri Lanka, and maybe it's...
1:19:58
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
1:19:59
Maybe we are out of the 194 nations, I can easily think that some 50 needs it and we cannot work in 50 places.
1:20:08
And some of them are quite potentially quite rich or with other potentials to create money that enables them to pay for it.
1:20:17
And they feel it or realize it.
1:20:19
There's no sense for us to go to lost places.
1:20:23
Well, anyone who has natural resources has a way of...
1:20:30
The natural resources are always under a kind of quasi-state control that's not quite the government.
1:20:38
It's not like the government's kind of taking your taxpayers' money and giving it to somebody.
1:20:43
It's that the state natural resources, whatever, that's the only way the money comes from.
1:20:50
I do not exclude the possibility that in five years' time you will end up with decentralization of decision-making.
1:21:01
In both China and India, for different reasons, through different mechanisms,
1:21:06
where you might find Chinese cities, not just the provinces but cities,
1:21:17
with enough authority and enough resources to hire their advisors to cooperate,
1:21:26
they basically think of themselves as, under the idea of centers of excellence,
1:21:32
they look and they see we are just 400 Singaporeans.
1:21:36
basically the same ethnical background or something, even more advantages, more homogeneous.
1:21:45
And if we can copy 400 times Singapore, we are doing success in the world.
1:21:53
When you meet with Chinese mails right now, first of all, some of them have a population under control,
1:22:00
which are medium-sized, too big, bigger than most of the European countries,
1:22:06
like Austria, Switzerland and Denmark together.
1:22:09
And they get more. That's part of the way of the Chinese to face the threat of losing control as a result of social...
1:22:26
The whole transition bodes ill for them. It's not going to be a smooth way for them.
1:22:35
And in order to face the threat to anticipate, they have to find generic solutions,
1:22:42
not to keep us through processes that will smooth the heating of the province.
1:22:52
And India, for different reasons, they come from another direction,
1:22:56
but also you might find that in Indian states, they will get more autonomous capability to take.
1:23:10
They have the governor who is supposed to intervene on behalf of Manmohan Singh,
1:23:15
but it's only if things get wrong in an explicit way, illegal way, big scandals that come to the surface.
1:23:25
So I think there is a lot of work. It could be fascinating because it's really...
1:23:30
In a way, it's using what you accumulated all along your life to help real people facing real problems that you are acquainted with.
1:23:40
And they don't feel as confident. They draw both emotional kind of confidence.
1:23:50
It's a very good thing to do if one can find.
1:23:53
I think once you hang out the shingle, they find you. They don't know where to go.
1:24:00
I mean, they sort of...
1:24:03
Who do I talk to? I said by default they talk to me, but it's by default.
1:24:06
They read in the Economies the articles about them in order to try to find a hint about how they...
1:24:12
It's wild. Now, you have to be sensitive. There's places like the Congo that have tremendous natural resources,
1:24:22
but it's just zero. You have to stay awake. It's impossible. Rwanda, there's African countries.
1:24:28
So it's different than Mongolia.
1:24:30
I met Kagemi. What's his name? The big basketball player.
1:24:34
He looked like a kind of president of Rwanda.
1:24:38
Yeah.
1:24:39
And I believe that Tony Blair is giving him...
1:24:42
He is.
1:24:43
A lot of advice.
1:24:44
Yeah.
1:24:45
But Kagami, I don't know about Kagami. Kagami is...
1:24:50
It feels like if you're the president of Rwanda, you should sometimes be in Rwanda.
1:24:55
Judging by how often I meet him, going to one conference or another,
1:25:01
He couldn't be spending very much time in Rwanda.
1:25:04
Probably.
1:25:05
Yeah, yeah.
1:25:06
Yeah, but it's a way to avoid the stress of being all the time in Rwanda.
1:25:12
But it's like Rwanda has gas, but it's in the middle of the lake.
1:25:17
But other places in Africa...
1:25:18
And what's the lake? Which lake?
1:25:20
Alpen?
1:25:21
I don't know. Kagami said there's a gigantic gas field, but just like there's a place in...
1:25:27
Well, what's the problem? The Caspians see also in the gas.
1:25:31
Because it's inside... Once you can't get it out of the country.
1:25:34
Why?
1:25:35
Because there's no infrastructure.
1:25:38
How do you put it?
1:25:40
Well, in Africa, putting in even trains, half the time they steal...
1:25:44
You put down the rails, you go to sleep, and the rails are gone because someone took it.
1:25:48
Is there any place in Africa that you think has a prospect?
1:25:51
No.
1:25:52
No.
1:25:53
Really?
1:25:54
Yes.
1:25:55
I think you think no.
1:25:56
Angola maybe.
1:25:57
I don't know who...
1:25:58
No.
1:25:59
I think it's...
1:26:00
Let me be...
1:26:01
South Africa...
1:26:02
South Africa is going to be a major economic power.
1:26:06
It goes very...
1:26:07
Yes, but I think...
1:26:08
Slow...
1:26:09
South Africa?
1:26:10
I think the concept is over some 30 years, maybe.
1:26:14
But I think there are easier...
1:26:16
There's low-hanging fruit, like Kazakhstan.
1:26:19
Kazakhstan's a perfect example.
1:26:21
There's 80 billion dollars in sovereign wealth.
1:26:24
They would like to be part of the Western world.
1:26:27
It's the big things to be seen, to have human rights.
1:26:30
They want to be part of the financial system.
1:26:34
They...
1:26:35
Part of it is that they don't want to be embarrassed.
1:26:37
That's...
1:26:38
Clearly.
1:26:39
So, when they want to talk to someone, they want to know their discretion and good advice,
1:26:44
so they can at least take credit for their decisions.
1:26:47
So, those are easier places.
1:26:49
So, in Africa, maybe, but very hard work.
1:26:52
What about Africa?
1:26:57
South America is Venezuela at the moment.
1:27:00
You know, Chavez dies in the neck.
1:27:01
I had a whole bunch of the oil guys here.
1:27:03
It's the...
1:27:05
Monstrous proven reserves.
1:27:07
Lots of things to do.
1:27:09
Little...
1:27:10
Once Chavez goes, and...
1:27:12
The financial system...
1:27:13
They devalued their currency last week.
1:27:16
22%.
1:27:17
Yeah.
1:27:18
So...
1:27:19
They had three exchange rates.
1:27:20
Now they only have two exchange rates.
1:27:22
But they don't have an economy.
1:27:23
They have Dudamel.
1:27:24
But you...
1:27:25
Dudamel.
1:27:26
Yes.
1:27:27
That's the only thing they have.
1:27:28
One of the best conductors on earth.
1:27:30
Yes.
1:27:31
The young Venezuelan.
1:27:32
So, I think there's just...
1:27:36
There's plenty of places.
1:27:37
China is a different thing because there's a...
1:27:39
That cultural...
1:27:40
You have a better...
1:27:41
You both have a great issue in China because...
1:27:45
It gives them face to talk to you or to you.
1:27:50
So that they feel...
1:27:51
And if you went to see them for a day and you left the country, you never want to stay there.
1:27:55
Because if you go and you leave, they can tell all their friends that you came just to see them.
1:28:01
So that's a...
1:28:02
What about Azerbaijan?
1:28:03
Same thing.
1:28:04
Just tricky.
1:28:05
Backward.
1:28:06
Yeah.
1:28:07
Backward.
1:28:08
I met Aliyev.
1:28:09
Yes.
1:28:10
And I remember his father.
1:28:12
His father was a communist kind of KGB kind of representative in the place, end of the Communist Party.
1:28:23
And now the son took over when the father died.
1:28:26
It's a kind of run like a family business.
1:28:29
I met their minister of foreign affairs.
1:28:34
It ended up that he's not just most preferred colleague, but also the best friend he has in Israel is Avigdor Liberman.
1:28:42
Is that right?
1:28:43
Yeah.
1:28:44
But you're...
1:28:45
Israelis are making a lot of business in Azerbaijan.
1:28:49
I think once you set up...
1:28:54
Once you...
1:28:55
People understood that you're really in business, you have to choose which is the right place.
1:29:00
Not...
1:29:01
You wouldn't be...
1:29:02
And you could charge a lot of money.
1:29:04
I think there is an opportunity here.
1:29:07
And if you don't create a huge overhead.
1:29:10
Do not pretend to run operations to secure oil fields or...
1:29:16
You point them to companies.
1:29:19
There are many in Israel.
1:29:21
Some will...
1:29:22
Some in America.
1:29:23
Some would not like to have an American company running, but something from a smaller country.
1:29:31
Well, what have you found most interesting?
1:29:33
You've been out now for how long?
1:29:34
A year?
1:29:35
I've been out...
1:29:36
No, I've been out almost...
1:29:37
I've been out two years.
1:29:38
I've been out about two years and I would say two most interesting things have been...
1:29:48
been on the boards of a couple of high techs...
1:29:50
of a high tech startup and involved with the venture capital.
1:29:55
You know, you just have a sense that you're sort of seeing people who are creating...
1:30:00
Something new.
1:30:01
Creating something new and they're young and they're vigorous and there's a sense of energy
1:30:09
and being an adult, you can add something.
1:30:14
And so I've enjoyed being with Hendricks and Horowitz and being on the board of Square.
1:30:21
That's been good.
1:30:23
And I've enjoyed...
1:30:25
I do a couple hedge...
1:30:26
I advise a couple hedge funds.
1:30:28
And that's interesting because you sort of hear what the people...
1:30:33
You have a sense of what the people in the markets are thinking and are doing.
1:30:40
So that has been...
1:30:41
So I've enjoyed that as well.
1:30:44
And then I do a bunch of sort of speaking and giving things up on a variety of things,
1:30:49
which is fine, but is less...
1:30:52
Yeah.
1:30:53
Is less sort of exciting and stimulating.
1:31:00
Well, you know, if opportunities materialize, I don't think you can quite hang out the shingle.
1:31:07
Wouldn't I say?
1:31:08
And say country doctor.
1:31:10
But...
1:31:11
Has a new meaning now.
1:31:14
Access on country.
1:31:15
Right.
1:31:16
Yeah, but access into country can, in certain countries, create a leverage to make a lot
1:31:23
of money for a long time.
1:31:25
Sometimes you can just bring together a leading major kind of mining company with a leading
1:31:34
place to mine, whatever they look for, and just agree with them on an extremely small,
1:31:41
small, small percentage of pro millage or whatever they are doing.
1:31:47
But as long as the operation is delivered, you might end up living quiet.
1:31:53
It also has its values.
1:31:55
It's very...
1:31:56
But has something in the past two years gotten you excited?
1:32:00
And the adrenaline?
1:32:01
Yeah, I said.
1:32:02
To work with the young people on...
1:32:04
That's kind of exciting.
1:32:05
But is there one...
1:32:06
Has Square been the most thing?
1:32:08
Square's probably been the thing...
1:32:10
That you look forward to going out?
1:32:12
I look forward...
1:32:13
I look forward to...
1:32:14
I look...
1:32:15
Yeah, I look forward to going out there, but it's not that I...
1:32:18
I really do look forward to when we're going out there and when they call.
1:32:24
Like, that's going to be interesting and I'm glad they called.
1:32:28
It's not quite that...
1:32:31
I'm thinking about it every night before I go...
1:32:35
Before I go...
1:32:36
It's not quite at the level of I'm thinking about it every night before I go to sleep.
1:32:40
In part because...
1:32:43
You know, a lot of what it is is like developing a better technology and all that.
1:32:47
It's not what I do.
1:32:48
Think of it.
1:32:49
It's one of your edges as well.
1:32:51
At the same time.
1:32:53
Because...
1:32:54
Part of what they need is someone who is experienced enough to look at it in somewhat...
1:32:59
A little bit more detached manner to be able to judge...
1:33:03
Or avoid the kind of over-enthusiasm that sometimes blinds them to where they are heading.
1:33:09
That's...
1:33:10
Or what could be the consequence.
1:33:12
That's where you can...
1:33:13
Because you have much more...
1:33:15
Judgment...
1:33:16
Something...
1:33:17
And complicated life experience.
1:33:18
Judgment...
1:33:19
Wisdom...
1:33:20
Yeah, and I'm able to say...
1:33:21
Yeah.
1:33:22
You know, and I'm...
1:33:23
I'm able to say this...
1:33:24
Like you are.
1:33:25
Yeah, even...
1:33:26
I'm able to say to anybody...
1:33:27
Yeah.
1:33:28
Whatever you think.
1:33:29
That doesn't seem quite right.
1:33:31
When lots of people spend their lives surrounded by people who will never say to them...
1:33:37
Yeah.
1:33:38
That's not...
1:33:40
That's...
1:33:41
Yeah.
1:33:42
That's not quite right.
1:33:45
That's not quite right.
1:33:46
No, so that's...
1:33:48
So I like the things where you're engaged with more young people.
1:33:53
Young...
1:33:54
Yeah.
1:33:55
And I'm sure in Israel there must be a ton of that.
1:33:57
Yeah.
1:33:58
And Israel is a fascinating place.
1:33:59
It's a...
1:34:02
For...
1:34:03
For...
1:34:04
For...
1:34:05
I mean, the eruption of entrepreneurial spirit...
1:34:07
That's true.
1:34:08
And...
1:34:09
Young people...
1:34:10
Well, it's very typical to find the...
1:34:13
Best...
1:34:14
The two...
1:34:15
Kind of...
1:34:16
Desilums of the...
1:34:18
Of the...
1:34:19
Population coming out of the anforces...
1:34:20
Of some of them spending their time in the anforces...
1:34:23
in activities which are basically R&D or start-up kind of operations without economic side to it.
1:34:33
And they come, they jump energetically and there is a buzz.
1:34:41
Are you going to live in Israel or are you going to live in New York?
1:34:45
That's a good question.
1:34:47
I basically live in Israel but I am extremely fascinated by going out and seeing the world and to be in many places.
1:34:56
So I don't feel any kind of problem of spending most of my time out of the country.
1:35:03
That's what a fascinating...
1:35:05
But you're going to make your home in Tel Aviv rather than in London or in New York.
1:35:12
Yeah, you can fly.
1:35:15
I don't have a problem if I had to spend a full two months in New York.
1:35:22
Take some places in Tel Aviv or Tel Aviv.
1:35:26
Or in London or in another place.
1:35:30
Before you go, what's your sense of the economy?
1:35:33
What do you think is going on now?
1:35:38
I think the best guess is that we're turning around the corner.
1:35:47
We're turning a bit, I think, as Jeffrey and I were discussing before, I think there's a wall of money coming into the US.
1:35:59
The wall of...
1:36:00
The wall of...
1:36:01
The wall of money coming into the wall of money.
1:36:03
Just a gigantic amount of money.
1:36:04
The wall of money, yeah.
1:36:06
The pressure.
1:36:07
The stock market.
1:36:08
Yeah.
1:36:09
Well, I had been...
1:36:10
It's interesting.
1:36:11
I had been thinking to myself two months ago, the interest rate adjusted for inflation for 10 years is negative.
1:36:24
Stocks are pretty cheap.
1:36:26
Why isn't anybody in their right mind borrowing money to buy stocks?
1:36:32
And now, sure enough...
1:36:34
And so there should be a lot of deal activity.
1:36:36
And now, sure enough...
1:36:38
Yes.
1:36:39
...in the last month, there's...
1:36:41
You start to...
1:36:42
There's Dell.
1:36:43
There's more in public money.
1:36:44
Dell is not typical.
1:36:45
Some who is doing it himself with some...
1:36:48
Who?
1:36:49
Dell.
1:36:50
Dell is not typical, but Heinz is typical.
1:36:53
Heinz.
1:36:54
The...
1:36:55
Ketchup.
1:36:56
Ketchup.
1:36:57
Ketchup.
1:36:58
Ketchup.
1:36:59
Ketchup.
1:37:00
Ketchup.
1:37:01
Ketchup.
1:37:02
Ketchup.
1:37:03
Ketchup.
1:37:04
Ketchup.
1:37:05
Ketchup.
1:37:06
Ketchup.
1:37:07
Ketchup.
1:37:08
Ketchup.
1:37:09
Kera is what?
1:37:10
Kera is correct.
1:37:11
Yeah, and you saw what just happened.
1:37:12
She's sold?
1:37:13
I don't think she ever...
1:37:14
I don't think she ever...
1:37:15
I don't think she...
1:37:16
I think she's pretty much out of it, but the...
1:37:17
Warren Buffett...
1:37:18
Yeah.
1:37:19
And a Brazilian beer guy...
1:37:20
Yeah.
1:37:21
Have just...
1:37:22
Voted.
1:37:23
Combined.
1:37:24
When interest rates are this low, how can you not go into the takeover business?
1:37:28
I mean, not me, but...
1:37:30
No, and I think it's starting...
1:37:31
And I think it's starting to happen.
1:37:33
So I think that that, plus the fact that housing is turning, plus the fact that while
1:37:43
everybody's hysterical about the dysfunctionality of our government, the truth is we're a pretty
1:37:50
dynamic society and our government doesn't usually do insane things, I think it's a reasonably
1:37:57
good time to be optimistic about us.
1:37:59
I think it's a pretty bad time in Europe.
1:38:04
Yeah.
1:38:05
But for how long?
1:38:06
Yeah.
1:38:07
But for how long?
1:38:08
Because in September there is election in Germany.
1:38:11
I talked to Schauble and Demesier.
1:38:13
Demesier is my colleague, but he was an advisor to the Chassel for a long time.
1:38:16
And Schauble, I know him from before he was shot.
1:38:21
Before he was shot, he's now in a wheelchair, I still remember him walking on his feet.
1:38:33
From both, I got the impression that Germany cannot do anything, politically speaking,
1:38:38
they cannot do anything by throwing some short and immediate small pieces to the Spanish
1:38:46
or Italian or Greek in order not to break the whole thing before.
1:38:51
But then after they can.
1:38:52
Yeah.
1:38:53
But after they can, and basically they will, because they are not doing a favor for the
1:39:00
rest of Europe.
1:39:01
Right.
1:39:02
It's something that…
1:39:03
The people are still getting old.
1:39:05
Yeah.
1:39:06
They still don't want to work very hard.
1:39:08
Yeah.
1:39:09
And it's not very innovative.
1:39:11
Yeah.
1:39:12
I think that Southern Europe is going to become like Southern… Southern Europe to Europe
1:39:19
will be like Southern Italy to Italy.
1:39:22
Yeah.
1:39:23
Poor, not very competitive, lots of people not working, dependent, but stable.
1:39:32
Yeah.
1:39:33
Yeah.
1:39:34
And so I think, I now think the odds that the Euro will, who knows what will happen
1:39:39
about Greece, but I think the odds that the Euro will stay together is very, very high.
1:39:46
But I think the odds that Europe will be a dynamic place are relatively low.
1:39:55
are not very high.
1:39:56
It means that ultimately culture matters.
1:39:58
The Mediterranean culture is inferior to the kind of Scandinavia, the kind of post-reformation
1:40:07
kind of…
1:40:08
You know, maybe the cultures vary and they work well for 50 year periods and theirs isn't,
1:40:16
but I don't know about Japan.
1:40:18
I think it's an island full of people getting old.
1:40:27
You know, the last thing they invented that was any good was the Walkman.
1:40:30
And that was a long, that was a long, that was a long time ago.
1:40:36
And so I think that they're probably going to try to pump up and print a lot of money.
1:40:43
But is Abe a serious guy?
1:40:46
I don't think so.
1:40:47
Because last time that he was in power he was not serious.
1:40:50
I don't think so.
1:40:51
I don't think so.
1:40:52
I think he's…
1:40:53
From everything I hear and read, I don't think he is a…
1:40:58
I don't think he's a hugely serious guy.
1:41:00
All the hedge funds are that the yen's going down and that the Japanese stock market's
1:41:09
going up.
1:41:10
I have gotten more confidence that the yen's going down over the medium run than I do
1:41:17
that the Japanese stock market's going up.
1:41:21
I think if there is a…
1:41:25
If there's a Paulson trade, you know, like Paulson, the guy who made…
1:41:31
Yeah, yeah, Paulson.
1:41:32
I know him.
1:41:33
If there's a trade…
1:41:34
The one from the mortgage-backed securities.
1:41:37
Right, right, right.
1:41:38
Go up and then fell down.
1:41:40
Right.
1:41:41
If there's a…
1:41:42
If there's a trade like that in the next three years, I think it's short the Japanese
1:41:49
long bond.
1:41:50
Agreed.
1:41:51
Because I think that, you know, maybe they'll recover, in which case they'll stop having
1:41:58
10-year bonds at 70 basis points.
1:42:00
Maybe they'll have inflation, in which case they'll stop having long bonds at 70 basis
1:42:06
points.
1:42:07
Maybe they'll decide that they can't really fix their problems at all, in which case people
1:42:11
will start to worry about whether they're going to get repaid, in which case they won't
1:42:16
be at 70 basis points.
1:42:18
So it seems to me that they're likely…
1:42:21
What is 70 basis points?
1:42:22
The spread of Japanese bonds…
1:42:24
That's the line.
1:42:25
Over 10 years.
1:42:26
The interest rate is 70 basis points.
1:42:28
So…
1:42:31
But it's been that way for a while.
1:42:32
Long time.
1:42:33
To be fair.
1:42:34
But they may…
1:42:35
It's been very long for a very, very long time.
1:42:37
Five years ago, people would have said the same thing.
1:42:40
You've just got to be…
1:42:41
The widow-makers, what they call the trade.
1:42:43
Correct.
1:42:44
But they already have, for a long time, they have some 200% of the debt store.
1:42:49
Right.
1:42:50
So that's why…
1:42:51
They keep coming from pouring money into the…
1:42:54
So that's why I said that if there is a success, it will be that.
1:42:59
And, you know, the last time they were crazy, there were more people who thought their
1:43:06
stock market was nuts when it was at 25,000 than there were who thought it was nuts at
1:43:12
35,000.
1:43:13
Because the people…
1:43:14
Because by the time it got to 35,000, everybody had taken their crack at thinking that it was
1:43:21
nuts.
1:43:22
And been wiped out.
1:43:23
Right.
1:43:24
And so they thought they didn't understand and maybe it would keep going.
1:43:27
And that's a little bit how the Japanese bond feels to me right now.
1:43:30
But tell me, Larry, we're more to worry about inflation as a result of all this supply
1:43:38
of wider money.
1:43:39
I know…
1:43:40
I'm relatively…
1:43:41
Or deflation.
1:43:42
What's more worrying for you?
1:43:47
For the last four years, I've been very confident that it was deflation.
1:43:53
You know…
1:43:55
As time passes, I move my view.
1:44:00
I am still more worried about slowdown than I am about…
1:44:05
Inflation.
1:44:06
A big increase in inflation in the United States.
1:44:10
I don't think…
1:44:11
I don't think…
1:44:12
Countries don't get big increases in inflation without labor demanding wage increases and tight
1:44:19
labor markets and all of that.
1:44:23
And I don't see any of that coming in the United States.
1:44:29
My friend Stan Fisher did a good job in Israel.
1:44:32
Yeah.
1:44:33
According to most kind of observers, he's very popular.
1:44:37
He is extremely popular.
1:44:38
People believe that he solved it, saved us from major disasters.
1:44:45
And he's highly appreciated in the country.
1:44:48
But there are, here and there, a few quite important economists…
1:44:54
Not economists, but players in the financial markets who think differently.
1:45:00
That he did accumulate too much.
1:45:02
He did not invest in the right time in gold.
1:45:05
That the whole running of the…
1:45:07
Because he raised the reserves from some 20 billion to some 80 billion.
1:45:12
A major move.
1:45:14
And they complained that probably he could have done better if he would have invested more
1:45:22
in gold or keep…
1:45:27
Put much more capable people to run this Nostro.
1:45:31
It's a huge Nostro to run this money somehow, even without gambling.
1:45:36
And some even argue that Anno said that probably he did identify too late that what the Swiss
1:45:53
have done with their weight could be done with the Shekel.
1:45:59
So for some time he appeared as if he believed that you cannot fight the market when in reality
1:46:05
you can fight it on one side.
1:46:07
If you are so popular that everyone wants to buy it.
1:46:10
So there are certain critics among more sophisticated players but basically the feeling is in flying colors he ends.
1:46:20
He's going to live in short time.
1:46:23
Yeah.
1:46:24
That was my impression that he had done very good.
1:46:27
He had been very sexual.
1:46:29
But that's the thing…
1:46:30
I like him very much.
1:46:31
He's sincere.
1:46:32
He's very sincere.
1:46:33
Yeah.
1:46:34
Respectful.
1:46:35
He seems slow but kind of in a systematic manner.
1:46:42
Avoid kind of gambling.
1:46:44
That's very important to our collective character.
1:46:48
He said that he is…
1:46:49
He said that he is…
1:46:50
There's this phrase, a safe pair of hands.
1:46:53
Safe?
1:46:54
A safe pair of hands.
1:46:56
Yeah.
1:46:57
Yeah.
1:46:58
He gives very much the feeling of being a safe pair of hands.
1:47:03
You know the thing about the…
1:47:05
I think it's a…
1:47:07
It goes to sort of something what you were talking about.
1:47:11
All over the world people have these huge quantities of money that they mostly invest in US treasuries that pay zero.
1:47:23
Yeah.
1:47:24
Or even negative.
1:47:25
Yeah.
1:47:26
Right.
1:47:27
And everybody ought to be investing their stuff more aggressively.
1:47:31
Yeah.
1:47:32
Yeah.
1:47:33
Yeah.
1:47:34
But that's the scars from the recent events.
1:47:36
People lose their…
1:47:37
It's like a herd.
1:47:38
They lose their self-confidence very easily.
1:47:42
And what happened in the crisis of truth.
1:47:45
We could not predict this and no one warned us.
1:47:48
Loudly enough.
1:47:49
So probably now it's…
1:47:52
Immediately they…
1:47:53
They…
1:47:54
Frozen.
1:47:58
It's human…
1:47:59
Human nature.
1:48:01
That sounds right.
1:48:02
Oh.
1:48:03
Okay.
1:48:04
I'm going to spend some time with Ehud.
1:48:06
I'll see you tomorrow morning at 10.
1:48:07
Very good.
1:48:08
I'm picking you up at 10 in the morning.
1:48:09
You're picking me up at 10 in the morning.
1:48:10
I will see you then.
1:48:12
Excellent.
1:48:13
Ehud, this was very good.
1:48:14
It was very good to see you.
1:48:15
Thank you.
1:48:16
I hope we'll have a chance.
1:48:17
One of these places or…
1:48:18
Yeah.
1:48:19
Okay.
1:48:20
One of these…
1:48:21
He's only a free man.
1:48:22
One of these things.
1:48:23
We will…
1:48:24
In three…
1:48:25
In three weeks.
1:48:26
I hope.
1:48:27
Contemplate setting a departure ceremony.
1:48:30
And set a time, a day, and a time.
1:48:33
Because I'm afraid that under certain tricky developments, there will be no new government.
1:48:40
I will go to another election and that's…
1:48:43
Theoretically it's possible.
1:48:45
I don't want to find myself stuck.
1:48:48
Great to see you.
1:48:49
Very nice to see you.
1:48:50
Be back a second.
1:48:52
Thank you.
1:51:02
You're never going to do something.
1:51:12
I appreciate that.
1:51:13
Yeah.
1:51:14
It's a nuance.
1:51:15
No.
1:51:16
I…
1:51:17
I…
1:51:18
I…
1:51:23
I…
1:51:24
I…
1:51:28
I…
1:51:29
I…
1:51:51
I…
1:51:52
I…
1:52:12
I…
1:52:15
Right.
1:52:32
Exactly.
1:52:39
Want more tea, sir?
1:52:54
Yeah.
1:52:55
More tea, if you can.
1:52:56
Yes, sir.
1:52:57
So?
1:54:30
How are you?
1:54:31
Great.
1:54:32
Great.
1:54:33
Great mind.
1:54:34
You like…
1:54:35
Extremely, yeah.
1:54:36
I like the very mind.
1:54:37
But what do you think?
1:54:44
He…
1:54:45
He…
1:54:46
He has the appetite to grow…
1:54:47
Yes.
1:54:48
Yeah?
1:54:49
Yes.
1:54:50
Okay, that's good.
1:54:51
I believe he's a very good name.
1:54:52
Could be very good.
1:54:53
That's one…
1:54:54
One of the ideas they kind of exchange with the…
1:54:57
Terry.
1:54:58
Terry.
1:54:59
Terry, yeah.
1:55:00
I think it could be really interesting if we find a way to work together to make probably
1:55:06
a pilot on one or two of them.
1:55:08
He…
1:55:09
Look, he's…
1:55:10
The…
1:55:11
The…
1:55:12
Larry is not liked by any…
1:55:13
What he said…
1:55:14
I…
1:55:15
I said that, you know, you were going to come to dinner.
1:55:18
And he said, did you read the article on Foreign Affairs?
1:55:20
Did…
1:55:21
Ah, yeah.
1:55:22
Yeah, yeah.
1:55:23
And he read it?
1:55:24
Yes.
1:55:25
He…
1:55:26
He said to me…
1:55:27
Ah, yeah.
1:55:28
Did you read the article on Foreign Affairs?
1:55:29
And what did he say about it?
1:55:30
I said, yeah.
1:55:31
He said, well, what did you think?
1:55:32
I said, I didn't like it very much.
1:55:33
He said, well…
1:55:34
He said, I come at it from a different angle.
1:55:37
He said, I didn't like it, but I identify because they say everything they say about
1:55:42
him, they say about me.
1:55:43
Yeah.
1:55:51
Let's go through…
1:55:52
I want to…
1:55:53
I thought we would start earlier, but…
1:55:55
It's okay.
1:55:56
I have time.
1:55:57
I hope you have enough.
1:55:58
You have patience.
1:55:59
I have patience and I have time.
1:56:00
I want to go with you through a variety of opportunities that were kind of proposed, different levels
1:56:11
of concreteness.
1:56:12
Okay.
1:56:13
But I find that probably with… I want to hear your advice before I try to focus on
1:56:23
order of priority and probably to have your judgment on some of them and what it means.
1:56:29
Now, unlike… probably unlike David Lavi, I can find fascinating adrenaline satisfaction
1:56:40
in just making money.
1:56:42
I knew that.
1:56:43
I already knew that.
1:56:44
I will spend it.
1:56:45
That I will have the real adrenaline.
1:56:47
It's not for making, for spending it.
1:56:50
I will spend it cleverly around.
1:56:54
Okay.
1:56:55
I want to start with what I brought you here.
1:57:00
I want you here a document of…
1:57:04
The German takeovers.
1:57:05
A German supposedly sophisticated takeover group that I was one of the founders of and
1:57:15
according to the real achievements that they had, according to this record, are those
1:57:22
that they have made when I was still there.
1:57:25
I don't know what they have done since then.
1:57:27
Probably they won some court trial about some deal that they were involved in and they
1:57:37
were bypassed at the last moment.
1:57:41
Probably the deal had never materialized.
1:57:44
It had to be with some sub-unit of Deutsche Telekom that operates here.
1:57:51
T-Mobile was taken by ATT, but in a way that was… the way to bypass them was by acting
1:58:00
much more aggressively.
1:58:01
And by this aggressive action, they raised the attention of the authorities, the regulators
1:58:08
here.
1:58:09
And some of it was blocked.
1:58:10
But they kind of had still a complaint.
1:58:14
Probably they got some 30 million or whatever from this complaint.
1:58:18
and they ran themselves the office since then.
1:58:22
Probably there are some areas that I don't know of, but basically I see something which
1:58:26
reminds me very much what we had in mind six years ago when I left them as I entered the…
1:58:35
Read it and try to get… ask me whatever question I know the people I know…
1:58:41
Who's the principal?
1:58:44
Who's the main person?
1:58:46
Originally it was four people.
1:58:50
One named Philip Scholler.
1:58:53
You will find all the details about him.
1:58:55
Okay.
1:58:56
Who do you like the most?
1:58:57
Who do you have the best?
1:58:58
No, no.
1:58:59
I have with the two.
1:59:00
We were five people.
1:59:02
Okay.
1:59:03
Philip Scholler, Christoph Bulfon, who's a lawyer.
1:59:08
Another entrepreneurial kind of guy, Roberto Hoffmann, and a German origin Canadian guy.
1:59:20
And at the moment do they have any money?
1:59:23
Named.
1:59:27
I will remind you in a moment.
1:59:35
Okay.
1:59:36
And we were basically four of us.
1:59:38
We established a German corporation.
1:59:40
It registers in the islands, BVI.
1:59:45
You will read it.
1:59:47
I will.
1:59:48
No, no.
1:59:49
You will find it.
1:59:50
Basically the idea was the following.
1:59:51
There is suppressed value within the DAX, leading companies, from the biggest to the
1:59:56
smallest, leading DAX companies, because of three elements.
2:00:04
One is the nature of governance of companies in Germany, with these two layers of board, which
2:00:15
slows down dramatically and spreads the decision power and capability to take decisions.
2:00:23
Secondly, the deep involvement of unions, that they are participants of the board and you
2:00:31
can practically not move without them.
2:00:35
And then passive shareholders.
2:00:37
There is nothing like ICANN or whatever here.
2:00:42
Extremely passive.
2:00:44
Now, I don't know if it's suppressed.
2:00:48
You take any company, take BA7 compared to DuPont or whatever here, similar sized company,
2:00:57
you will end up German company with half the market cap.
2:01:06
Take any, I don't know, insurance big company, compare it to even to Warren Buffett, which
2:01:16
basically ensures companies finance other activities and you will end up much lower.
2:01:23
But even if you compare them to any successful North American companies.
2:01:28
And do the same in every aspect.
2:01:31
And that's, in fact, that's the case.
2:01:36
They are much lower now.
2:01:39
Now, in order to do something with it, you have to change it.
2:01:45
The idea is that you can easily take, by the rules, if you get 10% of the stock of a company,
2:01:52
you become practically the owner of the company, you can call a special general assembly of the
2:01:59
whole shareholding and you can nominate a director, you can change the nature of it.
2:02:08
Usually it doesn't work.
2:02:11
If you are German, they look at you in quite a bizarre way.
2:02:18
If you are non-German, they will go.
2:02:22
So the idea is to establish a German...
2:02:27
In this group, you will see, they have a group of people about my age.
2:02:32
We are former heads of leading DAX companies.
2:02:35
They know the companies from within.
2:02:37
They know the people who are there, the relationship and everything.
2:02:42
They have a lot of informal, internal information about what happens, including when we...
2:02:49
I remember fighting with Volkswagen and with Deutsche Telekom, when we were continuously acquainted with what really happens in any board meeting afterwards.
2:03:04
So to establish a Luxembourg or whatever operation for any given project and let's say you typically might need one billion in equity, another one billion in debt to create 10% of a company with a markup of 20 billion and start to operate.
2:03:30
So we will need more if it's a bigger company, but usually it's a relatively small market.
2:03:37
Think of, I know...
2:03:39
I understand all of it.
2:03:40
It's a Munich Re.
2:03:41
It's a very huge potential of money, like Berkshire Hathaway, but probably making 4 billion per year on 200 billion of assets.
2:03:53
So by just making not very good insurers, but a good manager of assets, you can do more.
2:04:01
That's the idea.
2:04:02
Now, they want to find players or think that together we can find players who are ready and capable after they understand they can be behind this SPV, probably having convertible kind of bonds with SPV.
2:04:19
Let me stop you for a second.
2:04:23
It's much more important when you initially describe these things.
2:04:29
The structure of where and whether SPVs or it's in Luxembourg, BVI, it doesn't mean anything.
2:04:36
The only thing you need to focus on now when you're talking about these types of businesses are the numbers.
2:04:45
So that the numbers are the numbers are the numbers.
2:04:48
Nothing else is going to make a difference.
2:04:50
So you need to tell me five things.
2:04:52
A, have they performed before and what's their returns?
2:04:57
Because structurally it's different.
2:04:59
I'll look.
2:05:00
You'll find two examples, which are successful ones.
2:05:03
Both of them happened when I was there.
2:05:06
And I will add to you something.
2:05:08
If you have to ask me whether they are extremely successful till now, my answer is no.
2:05:14
Otherwise they are rich people, all of them.
2:05:20
What do they want from you?
2:05:21
So I want to know the numbers and what do they want from you?
2:05:24
So those are my two biggest goals.
2:05:27
Numbers you will find.
2:05:31
The idea is to take anything from a small DAX company.
2:05:37
It could be taken over by putting probably 300 in equity and 300 in debt.
2:05:44
You have 600 million.
2:05:46
You can take over 600 million.
2:05:48
The very big one might need 3.5 billion in debt and 3.5 billion in equity,
2:05:56
which enables you to take even diamonds.
2:06:00
In fact, the only one who did what GCG has as a vision is Ferdinand Pich,
2:06:10
when he took over.
2:06:12
He ran ahead of us.
2:06:14
We had been here trying to convince several big private equity companies
2:06:20
and hedge funds to do exactly what he had done.
2:06:26
They were much slower because several generations have already had a stronghold within the company.
2:06:36
Probably identified the opportunity.
2:06:38
But he extracted clearly a real jump that still holds several years after all.
2:06:44
Basically, think what Pich have done with Volkswagen and we will get a sense of what they claim.
2:06:54
Whether they did it or not.
2:06:56
That's probably the reason why they want me.
2:06:58
They want me to be able to somehow help them, to convince somehow for whom these amounts of money are not frightening.
2:07:08
If we convince, for example, the sovereign fund of Singapore or the Emirates or China to be with us or even a major Russian group.
2:07:24
To be with us, the GCG provides the front in Luxembourg and they are behind it.
2:07:34
Because if some sovereign fund will take over a major tax company, it could end up politically.
2:07:39
So they want you to go to the sovereign funds?
2:07:42
Yeah.
2:07:43
To help them to convince the sovereign fund.
2:07:46
Or extremely rich individuals.
2:07:49
Like Tom Pritzker, for example.
2:07:51
I just wrote down Tom's name.
2:07:53
Because I talked to him this morning.
2:07:55
Yeah.
2:07:56
Probably a guy that can, if he wants, to take over a major...
2:08:00
I understand.
2:08:01
But what is your real advantage for them?
2:08:05
The fact that you know rich people?
2:08:07
The fact that you have open access...
2:08:09
I can open the door.
2:08:10
I can access.
2:08:11
I can be there.
2:08:12
I cannot be at the core of the community.
2:08:18
Actually, you're the door open.
2:08:21
Yeah.
2:08:22
In a way.
2:08:23
And someone that they respect, it gives them certain respect, as you said about the blue...
2:08:28
Right.
2:08:29
So basically, that's the...
2:08:35
And they know me, they trust me, because we work together.
2:08:38
I help them to go to Bruce Kovner, and to Leon Black, and to others, and start to see what they are in.
2:08:51
For example, they work very hard to convince Russians, and they failed.
2:08:55
Until now.
2:08:56
And I think that probably I can convince.
2:08:58
You know, one of the guys that...
2:09:00
Think of two of the guys that they get now with BP-10K.
2:09:04
Right.
2:09:05
Well together, they got some four of them, they got some 28 billion.
2:09:08
They have to put it somewhere.
2:09:10
You know, the story with Germany is quite clear.
2:09:15
It's the best performing operation on the manufacturing flow, and a very slow, not creative, on the top.
2:09:25
Right.
2:09:26
But look, Germany always trades at a discount to the States.
2:09:29
I'm not sure of the comparison of German company valuations and earnings price marks.
2:09:34
There's an issue with taxes and unions.
2:09:36
You can't fire people there so easily.
2:09:38
But my concern is that they want you to open the door.
2:09:43
I understand.
2:09:44
It's not real...
2:09:46
It's not really your expertise.
2:09:49
Yeah, but...
2:09:50
It's your...
2:09:51
I understand.
2:09:52
It's your capabilities.
2:09:53
I think you can...
2:09:54
What they basically say...
2:09:55
You're going to make a lot of money.
2:09:57
See...
2:09:58
I don't make?
2:09:59
You're going to make a lot of money.
2:10:00
You're definitely going to make a lot of money.
2:10:02
I'm not going to...
2:10:03
You will.
2:10:04
You're definitely going to make a lot of...
2:10:05
You will make money.
2:10:06
The question is how you...
2:10:08
Which place you do it with?
2:10:10
Okay, look.
2:10:11
I have...
2:10:12
I will show...
2:10:13
After we read it, I will show the concrete proposal that they sent to me.
2:10:17
They gave an example.
2:10:18
They said, we are ready.
2:10:19
We are going to get...
2:10:21
When we put the money...
2:10:23
Assume for a month you succeed in bringing us someone who can put $1 billion on equity for
2:10:31
some project.
2:10:32
Right.
2:10:33
Big enough.
2:10:34
Think, for example, of the China investment company.
2:10:36
They run probably $400 billion.
2:10:38
They can afford doing it if it's afforded.
2:10:41
Yes.
2:10:42
Okay.
2:10:43
Assume that we convince them.
2:10:44
They say, okay, with the debt it's $2 billion.
2:10:46
I understand.
2:10:47
Out of the $2 billion we got 3%.
2:10:49
I understand.
2:10:50
We are ready to give you $12 million.
2:10:52
Right.
2:10:53
Out of the $60 million we get immediately.
2:10:55
And then smaller amounts down there.
2:10:59
Right.
2:11:00
So what Tom asked me this morning...
2:11:02
Yeah.
2:11:03
And he said he told you at Davos.
2:11:05
Yeah.
2:11:06
Was he thought you should make a list of his work.
2:11:09
Not...
2:11:10
Was...
2:11:11
Metrics.
2:11:12
As I told you.
2:11:13
Yes.
2:11:14
But who has IOUs to you?
2:11:17
Is that...
2:11:18
Who's the...
2:11:19
Out of the people in the past who you think you're close to.
2:11:23
He said that he really wanted you to make this list of...
2:11:26
This person owes me a favor.
2:11:30
This person owes me his life.
2:11:33
This person owes me his job.
2:11:36
This person owes me...
2:11:37
Yeah.
2:11:38
Okay.
2:11:39
And so you got to work it backwards and say, here is my...
2:11:44
But instead of thinking about what the opportunities are first.
2:11:47
Because right now you're focused on opportunities.
2:11:49
Yeah.
2:11:50
I need you to focus on your...
2:11:51
Yeah.
2:11:52
Okay.
2:11:53
Personal balance sheet in terms of competences.
2:11:59
What's your real strengths?
2:12:01
What's the liability...
2:12:02
One of the liabilities is you're 71 years old so you can't be in a business.
2:12:05
It takes 20 years to make money.
2:12:06
Yeah.
2:12:07
We have to make money in the next three years.
2:12:11
So people, competence, things...
2:12:15
For...
2:12:16
I talked to Ian yesterday.
2:12:17
I asked him to come.
2:12:18
Yeah.
2:12:19
He flew into London for an hour.
2:12:21
What was his impression from the...
2:12:24
He's...
2:12:25
So, same thing.
2:12:26
He built...
2:12:27
Because he's very connected to Samsung.
2:12:28
Very.
2:12:29
Who?
2:12:30
Who?
2:12:31
Samsung.
2:12:32
Korean...
2:12:33
Samsung.
2:12:34
Yes.
2:12:35
Very.
2:12:36
Yeah.
2:12:37
They pay him three million dollars a year.
2:12:39
Just to make PR.
2:12:40
Yes.
2:12:41
He has ten companies like that now.
2:12:43
No.
2:12:44
Okay.
2:12:45
Uh...
2:12:46
So, he said there's this company called Lookout.
2:12:49
He said he mentioned it to you.
2:12:51
Mm-hmm.
2:12:52
L-O-O-K-N-E-T.
2:12:53
Yeah, yeah.
2:12:54
You talked about it.
2:12:55
Yep.
2:12:56
He thinks they'll pay you a couple million dollars to be on the board.
2:12:58
Yeah.
2:12:59
That could be good.
2:13:00
That could be good.
2:13:01
I understood.
2:13:02
He thought there was two cyber companies.
2:13:11
Lookout and...
2:13:12
Even though I know Peter...
2:13:14
I've never met Peter Thiel.
2:13:16
And everybody says he sort of jumps around and acts really strange.
2:13:19
He looks...
2:13:20
Like he's on drugs.
2:13:21
Smoking, yeah.
2:13:22
Yeah.
2:13:23
He looks under drugs.
2:13:24
However, he has a company called Palantir.
2:13:28
P-A-L-L-E-N-T-I-E-R.
2:13:32
Palantir is Peter Thiel's company.
2:13:34
And Lookout...
2:13:35
Palantir...
2:13:36
P-A-L-L-E-N-T-I-E-R?
2:13:39
Yes.
2:13:45
How do you write Thiel?
2:13:46
T-H-I-E-L-L-Y.
2:13:47
T-H-I-E-L.
2:13:48
Yeah.
2:13:49
L-L-Y.
2:13:50
No.
2:13:51
T-H-I-E-L-L.
2:13:54
So he thought that Peter would put you on the board of Palantir.
2:14:02
Peter Thiel is one of the best...
2:14:04
I've never met him.
2:14:05
He's going to come here next week.
2:14:06
Oh.
2:14:07
Because I wanted to talk to him after I talked to you.
2:14:09
Okay.
2:14:10
He and Andreessen.
2:14:14
It's called Andreessen Horowitz.
2:14:17
Andreessen Horowitz.
2:14:18
That's what...
2:14:19
They pay Larry a million dollars a year.
2:14:21
Just to advise them.
2:14:23
Andreessen and...
2:14:24
Andreessen and...
2:14:25
A-N-D-R-E-E-S-O-N Andreessen and Horowitz.
2:14:34
And Horowitz?
2:14:35
H-O-R-O.
2:14:36
Horowitz.
2:14:37
Horowitz.
2:14:38
Oh.
2:14:39
Horowitz.
2:14:40
Yes.
2:14:41
What are they?
2:14:42
They're lobbyists?
2:14:43
What are they?
2:14:44
They are the biggest venture capital people in Silicon Valley.
2:14:49
Bigger than Sequoia or...
2:14:53
Klein of Perkins or...
2:14:54
These are the...
2:14:55
These are the new Klein of Perkins.
2:14:57
Everybody...
2:14:58
These are the smart boys.
2:15:04
So those two companies right away...
2:15:06
In terms of...
2:15:07
I said that we need...
2:15:08
Now...
2:15:09
In the next three weeks if you're going to leave...
2:15:33
Those two right away.
2:15:34
Let's go through more through...
2:15:35
I need to see the numbers here before I have...
2:15:37
So I can be intelligent.
2:15:39
See the numbers.
2:15:40
What is tempting there?
2:15:43
That I know the people.
2:15:45
And basically...
2:15:46
You don't know more than one success on this scale...
2:15:50
According to the contract that they proposed to me...
2:15:53
To get...
2:15:55
Basically much richer than I can now.
2:15:58
I understand.
2:15:59
Getting some 20 or 30 million dollars along several years.
2:16:03
I understand.
2:16:04
Okay.
2:16:05
Okay.
2:16:06
So...
2:16:07
That's number one.
2:16:08
Number two.
2:16:09
A...
2:16:10
A Swiss private bank.
2:16:15
I'm going to meet with them in Syria.
2:16:19
Next.
2:16:20
This coming...
2:16:25
I'm flying tomorrow to Europe.
2:16:27
I'm going to meet with them.
2:16:28
They basically asked me to...
2:16:36
To join something very similar to what...
2:16:40
If I understand well...
2:16:42
Tony or...
2:16:44
Earlier...
2:16:45
Schultz...
2:16:46
Was doing for...
2:16:47
Jaypenburg.
2:16:48
Okay.
2:16:49
Namely...
2:16:50
I understand.
2:16:51
Running certain kinds of international advisory boards...
2:16:55
That they don't have now...
2:16:57
To help them to push business.
2:16:59
Yes.
2:17:00
They are very clear...
2:17:01
What they would like...
2:17:03
To help them to approach effectively...
2:17:06
And convince...
2:17:07
People...
2:17:10
And...
2:17:11
Players...
2:17:12
Family...
2:17:13
They are like many other banks...
2:17:15
They are...
2:17:16
Moving...
2:17:17
Or...
2:17:18
Want to concentrate on...
2:17:21
High networks...
2:17:23
Individuals...
2:17:24
Family offices...
2:17:26
Some...
2:17:27
Some...
2:17:28
Actually...
2:17:29
Big...
2:17:30
Operations...
2:17:31
For some reason...
2:17:32
Have to...
2:17:33
Invent...
2:17:34
They have quite...
2:17:35
Known names...
2:17:37
They are not...
2:17:41
As small...
2:17:42
And private...
2:17:43
And...
2:17:44
Like...
2:17:45
Almost...
2:17:46
Confidential...
2:17:47
Like...
2:17:48
Piktet...
2:17:49
Or...
2:17:50
Lombard...
2:17:51
And...
2:17:52
I tried to check...
2:17:53
I didn't find anything...
2:17:54
Eh...
2:17:55
About them...
2:17:56
But...
2:17:57
They told me...
2:17:58
Frankly...
2:17:59
That they don't want to...
2:18:01
Work with Americans...
2:18:02
Right...
2:18:03
Because...
2:18:04
Any...
2:18:05
Even if I...
2:18:06
Nobody works with Americans...
2:18:07
Yeah...
2:18:08
They told me...
2:18:09
It doesn't make sense...
2:18:10
From...
2:18:11
Reputation...
2:18:12
Because...
2:18:13
They want to...
2:18:14
Know everything...
2:18:15
They want to...
2:18:16
Publicize...
2:18:18
It's not easy...
2:18:19
To the customer...
2:18:20
It's not easy for us...
2:18:21
So...
2:18:22
They want...
2:18:23
To...
2:18:24
Me...
2:18:25
To help them...
2:18:26
To...
2:18:27
Rich sources...
2:18:28
Of...
2:18:29
Money...
2:18:30
To...
2:18:31
To manage...
2:18:32
In...
2:18:33
Whatever...
2:18:34
Latin America...
2:18:35
How big are they now?
2:18:36
Do you know?
2:18:39
I see...
2:18:40
Between...
2:18:43
150...
2:18:44
250...
2:18:45
Billion...
2:18:46
Assets...
2:18:47
That they are...
2:18:48
Managed...
2:18:49
Mainly...
2:18:50
Wells...
2:18:51
Kind of...
2:18:52
Either...
2:18:54
Of the...
2:18:55
Of the...
2:18:56
Companies...
2:18:57
I don't know exactly...
2:18:58
They...
2:18:59
They didn't reach...
2:19:00
This...
2:19:01
And...
2:19:02
They want...
2:19:03
They feel...
2:19:04
For example...
2:19:05
They know...
2:19:06
They don't know...
2:19:07
Even how to approach...
2:19:08
Russia...
2:19:09
Because they were...
2:19:10
They didn't like...
2:19:11
They still feel...
2:19:12
That some of the Russians are bad...
2:19:13
And...
2:19:14
They shouldn't approach them...
2:19:15
And...
2:19:16
Others are good enough...
2:19:17
Because...
2:19:18
Money runs...
2:19:19
The operations...
2:19:20
Outside of Russia...
2:19:21
And became...
2:19:22
Quite...
2:19:23
Legitimized...
2:19:24
In the...
2:19:25
Financial world...
2:19:26
New...
2:19:27
What's the name...
2:19:28
Can you tell me the name...
2:19:29
Or...
2:19:30
Are you...
2:19:31
Close...
2:19:32
They asked me...
2:19:33
Probably...
2:19:34
I will tell you...
2:19:35
In a few days...
2:19:36
I don't...
2:19:37
I don't...
2:19:38
Have they been under investigation...
2:19:39
By the states?
2:19:40
No...
2:19:41
Are you sure?
2:19:42
No...
2:19:43
That doesn't sound right...
2:19:44
Yeah...
2:19:45
It doesn't sound right...
2:19:46
Why?
2:19:47
Because...
2:19:48
I can't imagine...
2:19:49
That there's an institution...
2:19:50
That...
2:19:51
That has not been under investigation...
2:19:53
By the states...
2:19:54
To see...
2:19:55
It just doesn't sound right...
2:19:56
To me...
2:19:57
Yeah...
2:19:58
Okay...
2:19:59
I will...
2:20:00
I will recheck it...
2:20:01
With them directly...
2:20:02
No...
2:20:03
You need to...
2:20:04
Find some...
2:20:05
Okay...
2:20:06
Probably after...
2:20:07
You know...
2:20:08
Probably after the meeting...
2:20:09
If you ask him...
2:20:10
Probably after the meeting...
2:20:11
Fine...
2:20:12
In...
2:20:13
In three days...
2:20:14
I will be...
2:20:15
Fine...
2:20:16
It will be behind me...
2:20:17
Fine...
2:20:18
I will find a way to...
2:20:19
To...
2:20:20
Ask...
2:20:21
It doesn't...
2:20:23
They were not under investigation...
2:20:25
For something wrong...
2:20:26
Probably the...
2:20:27
American...
2:20:28
Authorities approached them...
2:20:30
Like they approached...
2:20:31
All other big firms...
2:20:33
Okay...
2:20:34
There is...
2:20:35
In general terms...
2:20:36
Every Swiss bank...
2:20:37
Of big size like that...
2:20:38
Has been under investigation...
2:20:40
So it's a question...
2:20:41
If they no longer...
2:20:42
The question you need to ask...
2:20:43
Did you ever deal with Americans?
2:20:46
Now...
2:20:47
If they...
2:20:48
Dealt with Americans in the past...
2:20:50
They're under investigation...
2:20:51
Everybody who's touched an American...
2:20:53
Is under investigation...
2:20:54
Okay...
2:20:55
So they might not be now...
2:20:56
Because they...
2:20:57
Told all the...
2:20:58
What normally happened...
2:20:59
Like there's a bank called Weglen...
2:21:00
W-E-G-E-L-E-N...
2:21:02
W-E-G-E-L-E-N...
2:21:03
Yeah...
2:21:04
They were the big ones...
2:21:05
Julius Baer...
2:21:07
Big ones...
2:21:09
If you had an American...
2:21:12
They told all the Americans...
2:21:13
You must take your account out...
2:21:15
We're closing...
2:21:17
All the Swiss banks...
2:21:19
We're no longer allowed...
2:21:20
To have American clients...
2:21:22
Yeah...
2:21:24
But...
2:21:25
The government says...
2:21:27
Look...
2:21:28
To know...
2:21:29
Who had accounts at your bank...
2:21:31
Because...
2:21:32
They have not paid their taxes...
2:21:34
Yeah...
2:21:35
And we want their names...
2:21:36
So there's been a big fight...
2:21:38
For most banks...
2:21:39
So the banks...
2:21:40
We can't...
2:21:41
Under Swiss law...
2:21:42
We can't give you the names...
2:21:43
But...
2:21:44
We can give it to the Swiss government...
2:21:45
And the Swiss government...
2:21:46
Probably...
2:21:47
Is going to yield to the Americans...
2:21:48
Yes...
2:21:49
And the order to give...
2:21:50
Yes...
2:21:51
All the banks...
2:21:52
We need...
2:21:53
But all these...
2:21:54
I believe that Lombard...
2:21:55
And the Pictet...
2:21:56
Were...
2:21:57
It was in the...
2:21:58
In the...
2:21:59
Open media...
2:22:00
That they were...
2:22:01
Under certain investigations...
2:22:03
Yes...
2:22:04
So...
2:22:05
But Credit Suisse...
2:22:06
And the UBS...
2:22:07
UBS...
2:22:08
Also had been under...
2:22:09
Yes...
2:22:10
And the Wegland...
2:22:11
And the...
2:22:12
And the...
2:22:13
The...
2:22:14
The worst so far...
2:22:15
Has been Weg...
2:22:18
Under investigation...
2:22:19
No...
2:22:20
They pled guilty...
2:22:21
Uh-huh...
2:22:22
They already were charged...
2:22:23
And the others...
2:22:24
The...
2:22:25
The...
2:22:26
Not yet...
2:22:27
No...
2:22:28
They want...
2:22:29
Not yet...
2:22:30
Guilty...
2:22:31
Or not yet...
2:22:32
Under investigation...
2:22:33
Okay...
2:22:34
Not yet...
2:22:35
Char...
2:22:36
Everyone's under investigation...
2:22:37
Some have been charged...
2:22:38
Because...
2:22:39
It's how abusive...
2:22:40
Really...
2:22:41
What happens is this...
2:22:42
You're under investigation...
2:22:43
I'm...
2:22:44
Congratulations...
2:22:45
You're under investigation...
2:22:46
You cooperate with me...
2:22:47
So you're okay...
2:22:48
We won't bother you...
2:22:49
You want to tell me to...
2:22:51
Take a walk...
2:22:52
I will indict you in New York...
2:22:55
If we indict you in New York...
2:22:57
You're not allowed to...
2:22:58
Do business with American banks...
2:23:00
Anywhere in the world...
2:23:01
So you're out of business...
2:23:03
So...
2:23:04
You either give us what we want...
2:23:06
If...
2:23:07
If you are not cooperating...
2:23:09
You're dead...
2:23:10
You...
2:23:11
Will be...
2:23:12
Ordered...
2:23:13
Charged...
2:23:14
Charged...
2:23:15
Charged...
2:23:16
Yes...
2:23:17
And then automatically...
2:23:18
Anyone who is...
2:23:19
Charged...
2:23:20
Charged...
2:23:21
You have a problem...
2:23:22
So...
2:23:23
Weglund gave up...
2:23:24
Paid a fine of 75 million...
2:23:25
Who?
2:23:26
Weglund Bank...
2:23:27
W-E-G-E-L-A-N...
2:23:29
Paid how much?
2:23:30
75 million...
2:23:31
UBS paid 750 million...
2:23:33
750...
2:23:35
But...
2:23:36
They paid 75...
2:23:37
But...
2:23:38
They paid 75...
2:23:39
Wait...
2:23:40
RBS paid...
2:23:42
Yes...
2:23:43
But...
2:23:44
The different trade...
2:23:45
Different trade...
2:23:46
That was...
2:23:47
Rate rigging...
2:23:48
But here's...
2:23:49
I'm gonna pay 75 million...
2:23:50
And...
2:23:51
Give you the names of every American...
2:23:53
Who had an account...
2:23:55
So that's...
2:23:57
Very much...
2:23:58
That sets the tone moving forward...
2:24:00
If the bank has given up American names...
2:24:03
People are a little more hesitant...
2:24:05
Because...
2:24:06
Okay...
2:24:07
We know...
2:24:08
It's like Mubarak...
2:24:09
Right?
2:24:10
You...
2:24:11
Through the last...
2:24:12
Anybody who came to you the last time...
2:24:13
Americans...
2:24:14
Maybe it's my country...
2:24:15
It's Russia who wants to know...
2:24:16
Are we having it?
2:24:17
Are these...
2:24:18
Managed accounts?
2:24:19
Are they private accounts?
2:24:20
Are they secret accounts?
2:24:21
They're all...
2:24:22
See...
2:24:23
You need to know...
2:24:24
Yeah...
2:24:25
Swiss banking system seems to be...
2:24:27
Fully protected...
2:24:28
Their clients know it somehow...
2:24:30
Yes...
2:24:31
Trust that it's easier than in other places...
2:24:34
The problem...
2:24:35
It's not places like...
2:24:36
You see...
2:24:37
The nice part...
2:24:38
The nice part about Switzerland...
2:24:41
For people...
2:24:43
If you have a hundred million dollars...
2:24:45
And you have it in Switzerland...
2:24:47
You don't want a return...
2:24:50
You don't care if your money makes money...
2:24:52
You don't care if it doesn't make money...
2:24:54
Right...
2:24:55
You don't care...
2:24:56
Because...
2:24:57
You shouldn't...
2:24:58
It's safe...
2:24:59
Yeah...
2:25:00
So you just...
2:25:01
You have it there for safety...
2:25:03
Not for profit...
2:25:04
Yeah...
2:25:05
So it's very easy...
2:25:06
But they are somehow...
2:25:07
Taking some of the money...
2:25:09
As a...
2:25:10
Management fee...
2:25:11
Yes...
2:25:12
They do it...
2:25:13
And they let you get very little...
2:25:14
Very little...
2:25:15
But you don't...
2:25:16
That anymore...
2:25:17
So they...
2:25:18
In fact...
2:25:19
If they make two percent...
2:25:20
They take two percent...
2:25:22
They take two percent...
2:25:23
Give you half percent...
2:25:24
All satisfied...
2:25:25
Because...
2:25:26
What you really bought...
2:25:27
Is safety...
2:25:28
Right...
2:25:29
But if that's the case...
2:25:30
It might not be extremely complicated...
2:25:32
To help them to...
2:25:33
That's correct...
2:25:34
That's correct...
2:25:35
Unless they are under...
2:25:37
Such an investigation...
2:25:38
And that could be...
2:25:39
The wrong side...
2:25:40
Correct...
2:25:41
But...
2:25:42
Why should they be...
2:25:43
On the wrong side...
2:25:44
If they understand...
2:25:45
What you have said...
2:25:46
Because...
2:25:47
Everyone...
2:25:48
Ultimately...
2:25:49
It doesn't have...
2:25:50
It's a...
2:25:51
Issue of...
2:25:52
Survivability...
2:25:53
So...
2:25:54
Hello...
2:26:01
Hello...
2:26:05
Hello...
2:26:07
Huh...
2:26:08
Mesele...
2:26:12
Mesele...
2:26:13
Mesele...
2:26:17
Mesele...
2:26:18
Mesele...
2:26:28
Fader...
2:26:29
Mesele...
2:26:30
Let's...
2:26:31
I'll give you...
2:26:32
Let's give you...
2:26:33
I'll give you...
2:26:34
The telephone...
2:26:35
Tomorrow...
2:26:36
Tomorrow...
2:26:37
Tomorrow...
2:26:38
Tomorrow...
2:26:39
I'll give you...
2:26:42
Hello...
2:26:43
Hello...
2:26:44
Yes...
2:26:45
Hello...
2:26:46
You'll talk...
2:26:47
Tomorrow...
2:26:48
Tomorrow...
2:26:49
Hello...
2:26:50
Yeah...
2:28:15
Okay...
2:28:17
Let's...
2:28:18
Sing...
2:28:19
Go after...
2:28:20
Yeah...
2:28:21
We'll come...
2:28:22
They want me, basically. They seem to be interested.
2:28:30
We never reached a point where they will tell me,
2:28:36
OK, we want to send you an offer. They know that I'm going to leave only several weeks.
2:28:41
But probably after this meeting in Switzerland,
2:28:48
they might send me a certain paper proposing it.
2:28:54
I don't know what they have in mind in terms of compensation.
2:28:58
I don't want, no, I assume that they will find a way to give me a certain amount as a kind of basis.
2:29:05
Certain coverage of expenses could be quite high
2:29:11
because they have to satisfy, in order to meet with their possible clients,
2:29:17
to spend some time, I know, in Sardinia or in the Gestaat or in the Punda Leicester or whatever.
2:29:27
Did you talk numbers at all?
2:29:29
No, no, never.
2:29:31
And probably certain element of performance or results based bonus or compensation.
2:29:45
Probably stretch over time. I see that there is basically, I didn't talk to them about it, but...
2:29:51
And who are you speaking, I mean, are you speaking to the president or the owner?
2:29:55
I know, no. 12 years later,
2:30:00
I spoke with their . They came to my house, they kind of just to our place in Tel Aviv,
2:30:08
ask to meet with me.
2:30:10
Right.
2:30:11
One of the probably number three the organization together with one of the, probably the then CEO.
2:30:22
Later on I met with the CEO and he spent 45 minutes with me for the first time.
2:30:37
I know indirectly that he was quite impressed and he made up his mind that he wants to see
2:30:44
me there.
2:30:46
And he asked me to meet with them and to visit with them and to meet.
2:30:55
So we will meet.
2:30:58
I assume that he will cover some issues.
2:31:01
Probably it will come to a point where I will tell him, okay, if you are interested, send
2:31:07
me an offer.
2:31:08
I don't know how to continue from here.
2:31:12
And I would appreciate if you give me some of your assessments or knowledge about how
2:31:19
much they might propose.
2:31:22
How much I might ask for what could be something which is not…
2:31:29
Outrageous.
2:31:30
Yeah.
2:31:31
Outrageous, kind of trying to use me, so I don't know.
2:31:36
They basically seemed to respect me for this, their initiative is how they came to me.
2:31:41
Do you want to get an offer while you're still in the government or you'd rather wait
2:31:45
until you get out?
2:31:46
No.
2:31:47
I prefer to tell them to send me an offer after the 14th.
2:31:50
I don't know.
2:31:51
That's what I'm saying.
2:31:52
I don't want something to be on record before.
2:31:53
That's what I'm saying.
2:31:54
Right.
2:31:55
Later on, in regard to security, there was also some quite important layer in this arena
2:32:04
that approached me and they wanted to see tomorrow to bring the founder, the president, whatever,
2:32:11
and to sit down and start to work on lists of whatever agencies or states that I will start
2:32:20
to talk to as part of their proposal to establish some operations outside this company.
2:32:29
Where is that company from?
2:32:31
It's one of the, once again, they also, I will tell you their name probably in a few days.
2:32:38
They are one of the leaders of service providers in the Internet.
2:32:44
Okay.
2:32:45
And they need to, they feel that they can use their security.
2:32:48
Right.
2:32:49
And they access and their control of the movement of material in the Internet, the cloud enables
2:33:01
them to create, it gives them a huge leverage.
2:33:04
And they are in quite good relationship here, but they think that I can help them to develop
2:33:10
the same kind of relationship with many other countries.
2:33:14
Okay.
2:33:15
Because they can find or identify the cyber attacks or deployment for attacks much earlier
2:33:22
than the firewalls or those who are looking just around the machines themselves.
2:33:28
Now, do you, my understanding…
2:33:31
I mentioned it because, only because…
2:33:33
Sure.
2:33:34
Yeah.
2:33:35
I mentioned it just because, just to tell you that I deliberately delayed them at certain
2:33:42
price, because they want to, to… they also came to me.
2:33:48
I didn't know…
2:33:49
Right.
2:33:50
I knew the name, but I didn't know what they were doing.
2:33:54
They came to me, they asked to meet with me.
2:33:57
I didn't yet see the number one person, I see the president, I didn't see the CEO.
2:34:04
The guy who wants it.
2:34:07
But it seems that they are interested.
2:34:09
And I delayed them too.
2:34:11
I told them I cannot do it, it's not proper.
2:34:13
Too many people in the room, who ended up that I started making business when I was
2:34:18
still Minister of Defense.
2:34:19
Right.
2:34:20
Especially in outer security.
2:34:21
But I go back to that.
2:34:23
I don't want a proposal before I end.
2:34:25
But I want to draw from you certain feelings.
2:34:30
I understand.
2:34:31
What could be reasonable for them and whether they might ask me to be exclusive?
2:34:36
Does it make sense if America is not part of it, so why should they have any…
2:34:42
For the next month, it's the same attitude, which is look.
2:34:46
I came here, I wanted to listen to what you have to offer.
2:34:54
I am very fortunate because…
2:34:57
I have many…
2:34:58
I am going to make a decision by April, where I will devote my time.
2:35:05
I am not going to make a decision before April 1st.
2:35:10
Yeah.
2:35:11
When is your last day?
2:35:13
Last day is 14th of March.
2:35:17
If Bibi succeeds.
2:35:18
Is it possible he doesn't succeed?
2:35:23
It has no precedent, but it can happen.
2:35:26
Theoretically it can happen.
2:35:30
Then I am going to lose a quarter of a million dollars just for the first six weeks by having
2:35:37
to cancel certain lectures that I already committed myself.
2:35:44
I consider even to retire, to check myself, to resign on the 14th.
2:35:57
But it won't be read properly in Israel.
2:36:00
People immediately will identify, they will find where I met them.
2:36:04
The only thing I can say, okay, I planned it in advance, I cannot…
2:36:08
People will say, ah, what will happen if two days afterwards Syria will collapse,
2:36:13
there is no experience.
2:36:15
And what is the truth there?
2:36:18
I don't say…
2:36:21
What happens in Syria, Syria is going to collapse, I don't know where they went.
2:36:26
No, but what happens if Syria…
2:36:29
I guess America is not going to go after Iran soon.
2:36:36
But if something happens that is dramatic, if Hezbollah does something goofy…
2:36:43
Who else is going to…
2:36:45
Here is one of my issues.
2:36:47
Even though you are disliked as a politician, if Israel has a military something or other…
2:36:57
Who is going to do it besides you?
2:36:58
No, no.
2:36:59
There will be…
2:37:00
Once there is a defense minister, he will do it.
2:37:03
Probably short of perfect, but he will do it with the government.
2:37:06
He is not alone with the armed forces.
2:37:08
I worry only about the technical situation that might be created.
2:37:14
I hope it won't, if nothing happens.
2:37:19
And then there is another round, and if the other round fails as well,
2:37:23
after another round, probably the mid of April, another round is failing.
2:37:29
So within 90 days, namely May, June, July, and beginning of July, there will be another election.
2:37:36
After which there is another…
2:37:38
Right.
2:37:39
It can end up the whole summit.
2:37:41
So I don't want to be stuck there.
2:37:43
Right.
2:37:44
I prefer to impose upon Bibi to nominate someone else in the 40s, even if temporarily.
2:37:53
And just say, okay…
2:37:55
Because it's important that the first offer be high.
2:38:01
So let's assume they say $3 million a year.
2:38:04
Tony gets $5 million from JP Morgan.
2:38:07
Yeah, but JP Morgan is a much bigger operation, one of the biggest…
2:38:11
So we know it's not going to be more than five.
2:38:14
Yeah.
2:38:15
So the number is going to be between one and four.
2:38:18
Between one and four.
2:38:19
One and four, yeah.
2:38:20
That's the real number.
2:38:21
Okay.
2:38:22
So if they believe you have lots of other alternatives, I think they'll offer you one
2:38:26
and a half to two to start off with.
2:38:29
Right.
2:38:30
And we'll negotiate, right, we're going to say, it's not, I can't.
2:38:33
Sorry.
2:38:34
I thought you were serious.
2:38:36
Yeah.
2:38:37
I thought you were a serious player if a million and a half dollars, I can make that
2:38:42
in five speeches for five days a year.
2:38:44
I don't need it.
2:38:45
Yeah.
2:38:46
Now, in real life though, once we really know, because you can't have yourself involved
2:38:52
in a bank that does funny things.
2:38:54
What is funny?
2:38:56
Illegal.
2:38:57
I don't think that's okay.
2:38:59
I don't know, but you don't know.
2:39:00
Yeah, I don't know.
2:39:01
I don't care what you think.
2:39:02
Yeah.
2:39:03
It's interesting, but we need to know that, you know, you can't…
2:39:06
How can I know and how can I present this?
2:39:09
You know, the very question raises doubts about their position.
2:39:14
Is it…
2:39:15
Well, once you tell me the name, we can have some sense, you know.
2:39:18
Who are their big clients?
2:39:19
Are their big clients Africans, Russians, South Americans?
2:39:23
No.
2:39:24
No.
2:39:25
That's exactly…
2:39:26
They are not.
2:39:27
There are many Europeans.
2:39:28
You know, the Italians have a problem.
2:39:30
Yeah.
2:39:31
They told me, quite frankly, that they hesitated to enter Russia because of reputational issues.
2:39:39
Right.
2:39:40
And that they are not almost…
2:39:44
They are relatively weak in Latin America.
2:39:47
They seem to have to go there or Latin America and Central America.
2:39:51
And they don't even know how to start to think about China.
2:39:57
And they see that it's a rising power of wealth.
2:40:01
Do they have any other branches?
2:40:02
Any other countries?
2:40:03
Yeah, yeah.
2:40:04
There are probably hundreds of people working here.
2:40:06
No, no.
2:40:07
But do they have other branches?
2:40:09
Like a real business in Singapore?
2:40:12
Do they have a bank in Singapore?
2:40:14
Do they have a bank?
2:40:15
I don't know.
2:40:16
I don't think that they have banks in the normal sense.
2:40:20
I need to know more.
2:40:21
I don't think that they are running retail for sure they don't have.
2:40:36
I never see them on the kind of under signing operations.
2:40:43
So probably they are doing it privately behind them.
2:40:47
So instead of talking theory, when you are free to tell me the details, I can give you
2:40:52
real information about them.
2:40:54
Okay.
2:40:55
So probably it will happen mid-next week, probably Wednesday.
2:41:00
And the security company went?
2:41:02
After the 15th.
2:41:05
Oh, they won't talk to you before that?
2:41:09
No, they talked to me.
2:41:11
I met with their president.
2:41:13
Right.
2:41:14
And they sent a guy who is associated with them in Israel to talk to me.
2:41:20
And they came indirectly.
2:41:21
They came to me and asked for a meeting now here or in their headquarters.
2:41:30
What country?
2:41:31
Here.
2:41:32
It's an American company.
2:41:33
Yeah.
2:41:34
Big country.
2:41:35
So it's a, they also, but I, you know, I cannot, they also, they didn't mention numbers.
2:41:45
But from what I know, to be a member of the board of American company could be, I don't
2:41:50
know, half a million dollars a year or so.
2:41:52
Probably 300,000, probably half a million, depends on it.
2:41:55
Right.
2:41:56
And, okay, if they do it just to get it, they probably will ask, you know, according to
2:42:02
what they raised for this meeting, they are very extremely practical people.
2:42:07
They want me to help them because they believe.
2:42:10
Yes.
2:42:11
That outside of this continent, in this continent they are quite well connected.
2:42:15
But once again, I noticed that they raised their eyeballs when they learn whom I know
2:42:23
personally here from the people they are fighting to convince the hierarchy underneath
2:42:28
them to work.
2:42:30
Is it a public company?
2:42:33
Yeah.
2:42:34
Publicly traded.
2:42:35
Okay.
2:42:36
But they don't have this kind of access to Germany.
2:42:42
Right.
2:42:43
But publicly traded companies are easier because most of the information is available.
2:42:47
Yeah.
2:42:48
So we know what the board, we can find out what all the board members make.
2:42:51
Yeah, yeah.
2:42:52
I don't think that they want me on the board.
2:42:53
Okay.
2:42:54
I think that probably they won't.
2:42:56
They even left, they told the Israeli guy, left the open, ask Barak what he would like,
2:43:03
they want to be member or head of an international advisory board or advisor to us, consultant,
2:43:09
whatever.
2:43:10
But we know exactly what we want from him.
2:43:13
Right.
2:43:14
We want him to help us with his authority and security and whatever.
2:43:20
We have quite advanced intelligence community.
2:43:25
They know whatever they need about me.
2:43:30
And we believe that if we arrange a list of countries that you can approach on top levels.
2:43:37
Do they know your last name was to be Braag?
2:43:40
Right.
2:43:41
Probably.
2:43:42
Yes.
2:43:43
Probably.
2:43:44
But they expect me to create a list of their working schedule to bring the people to start
2:43:54
to convince other people to…
2:43:56
But those things again are easy because in fact if we know what you're selling and how
2:44:01
much your work, what you're selling is worth…
2:44:03
Yeah, and here once again I think that the real story is how, what kind of model could
2:44:08
be shaped that will compensate me a long time, the kind of perpetuity, whatever, in regard
2:44:16
to contracts that I have, we set targets that are exclusive in the sense that I would
2:44:23
approach them and if something goes up from me I would be…
2:44:27
No question.
2:44:28
No question.
2:44:29
No question.
2:44:30
That's the second story.
2:44:33
Now there is a third one that I will share with you because it comes together with something
2:44:43
that I owe you kind of.
2:44:47
I approached an American CEO, it's originally German, Klaus Steinfeld.
2:44:57
He's the head of a company called Alcoa now, Aluminium, the biggest public company.
2:45:06
I know him from the time that he was here heading of Siemens America.
2:45:16
Under Heinrich von Pirer who was a friend of mine, head of Siemens.
2:45:21
And Dr. von Pirer asked me a favor that I will go meet with this young person and we'll
2:45:31
give him my impression of the guy because he wants to consider whether he can jump him
2:45:37
over the heads of everyone on the board and put him as his replacement for the scandal.
2:45:46
And I came here and I was quite impressed by the guy and I had several meetings with the
2:45:51
rest of the board members, I saw them as well.
2:45:54
And I told him I think it could be good and he did it, he took him and jumped.
2:46:01
And I'm still wondering, I'm not sure that Klaus knows all the stories, but probably later
2:46:06
on he became acquainted with it somehow through Dr. von Pirer himself.
2:46:14
But I met with him several times in business gatherings when I was in private life and we
2:46:20
even tried to start some initiative in Moscow, some parking system that Siemens would be the
2:46:26
prime contractor, create a relationship with Lutschkov and Yelena Baturina and all the
2:46:36
leadership.
2:46:37
And I asked him to send him something similar there.
2:46:42
We met, he brought his number two kind of operational assistant, a guy who once worked in the White House
2:46:54
later on with one of the consulting groups of the former NSC.
2:47:01
And they also said, basically, tell us what you want.
2:47:10
Okay, we like you, I owe you, but he said, I like Barak very much, he's a great person.
2:47:20
Tell me what way you want to be involved.
2:47:23
Probably once again it might end up with certain kind of prevalent thousands that he can decide
2:47:29
to pay if I give them, you know, whatever, consultancy about protecting their minds around the world.
2:47:36
Security.
2:47:37
But that doesn't make a lot of money unless I can find some way once again to bring together achievements
2:47:46
that I can help them to do, either in upstream or downstream.
2:47:50
But they will know more about what you can do for them than you can guess.
2:47:57
So you need to, that's what I'm saying, you need to have them say, look, it's the same thing.
2:48:02
I don't have that much time.
2:48:05
I'm 71 years old.
2:48:07
I have five years of being active.
2:48:10
I can travel around for five years active.
2:48:12
I'm going to have to make a decision about how I spend my time.
2:48:19
If you think I'm going to be an asset, if you think I'm an asset for you, you should send
2:48:25
me a proposal, but it should be, I need to receive it by March 20th, between the 14th
2:48:30
and the 20th, because by April 1st I'm going to make decisions.
2:48:35
Yeah.
2:48:36
That's it.
2:48:37
No more talking.
2:48:38
We're done.
2:48:39
They know how much you're worth to them.
2:48:43
But the more you say, well, you can't ask, will you pay my expenses?
2:48:48
Yeah.
2:48:49
Just send me a proposal.
2:48:51
Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th, and by April 1st I'll give you an answer.
2:48:56
Yeah.
2:48:57
One, two, three.
2:48:58
Yeah.
2:48:59
No discussion.
2:49:00
Because the offer will come in higher than you think because of that.
2:49:05
I like the security company more than I like the bank.
2:49:22
The security company you can't get in trouble.
2:49:31
Let's continue and then we'll compare all these.
2:49:34
Sure.
2:49:35
Yeah.
2:49:36
In March.
2:49:46
Yes, March 14th and the 20th.
2:49:51
As if you're giving them an order.
2:49:53
Yeah.
2:49:54
March 31st and on April 1st, 9th.
2:50:02
You want an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
2:50:07
Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
2:50:10
21st.
2:50:11
Okay.
2:50:12
That's fair.
2:50:13
You negotiate with me already.
2:50:15
Yeah.
2:50:16
And on April 1st I will give you an answer.
2:50:21
Actually send me an offer however a kind of, no, don't mention however detailed, nothing.
2:50:32
Just send me an offer.
2:50:33
Yeah.
2:50:34
Okay.
2:50:35
And you said basically in the bank they give, they might propose something between 1 and
2:50:42
4 million.
2:50:43
Right.
2:50:44
Probably.
2:50:45
And probably some mechanism or bonus.
2:50:48
Will they ask for exclusivity?
2:50:49
No.
2:50:50
They can't basically.
2:50:51
No.
2:50:52
Because they are not dealing with North America.
2:50:53
Right.
2:50:54
And basically even if they would ask for...
2:50:55
They might ask for a bank exclusivity.
2:50:56
Yeah.
2:50:57
I could easily explain to them that some other activities might create synergies.
2:51:17
It's better not...
2:51:18
Again.
2:51:19
No.
2:51:20
The answer is...
2:51:21
It's not...
2:51:22
I'm not good.
2:51:23
I can't do an exclusive.
2:51:24
Yeah.
2:51:25
Don't defend yourself.
2:51:28
Don't explain yourself.
2:51:30
Yeah.
2:51:37
Yeah.
2:51:38
I can give them...
2:51:39
Give them less than more.
2:51:42
Yeah.
2:51:43
If...
2:51:44
Would you consider exclusivity?
2:51:47
No.
2:51:48
No.
2:51:49
No.
2:51:50
You need to be seen...
2:51:51
So especially the military...
2:51:52
Yeah.
2:51:53
This is...
2:51:54
OK.
2:51:55
I couldn't imagine.
2:51:56
Let me continue...
2:51:57
A font.
2:52:00
I was approached by a guy, a friend of mine or a soldier of mine, in a unit who runs
2:52:13
also It's not a small site kind of real estate businessman here New Jersey owning
2:52:22
some kind of parking operations here.
2:52:25
Right.
2:52:27
But he is well connected, up to Biden, you know, the people who are interested in politics and so on.
2:52:35
He came to me and said the following.
2:52:40
I feel very strongly that small funds, probably between 3 to 8 or 9 billion dollars in size,
2:52:56
will be extremely interested, not the big ones who have their own foreign ministries, but the small ones,
2:53:05
would be interested in having you, just because of your name, something very similar to what you told me about Blue Mountain.
2:53:15
And it seems that without even checking with them, he told me I know one or two of those guys
2:53:23
that easily want to pay you one million dollars just to use your name or two million dollars to tell you that you are one of them.
2:53:32
And it works for them because otherwise no one thinks.
2:53:36
He mentioned one name.
2:53:38
Are you going to tell me that name or you're not going to tell me that name either?
2:53:41
No, no. Jimmy Walker.
2:53:43
But the name sounds to me something bad because that was a guy that once, I met him several years ago here,
2:53:52
and he was somehow dealing with running money for the Assad family or something like this.
2:54:01
The Assad family?
2:54:02
Yeah. Jimmy Walker, probably the name.
2:54:09
I will tell you the rest of the names as well, long before the March 14th, let's say.
2:54:36
I don't know even the name of the fund. Probably I will know the name tomorrow.
2:54:48
The hedge fund is here?
2:54:50
It's not hedge fund, it's probably private equity.
2:54:54
So you think it's private equity?
2:54:57
Probably.
2:54:58
But the name is Jimmy Walker.
2:55:01
You can't find too many Jimmy Walker.
2:55:04
I might be able to tell you tomorrow.
2:55:13
I have more details about this.
2:55:16
Probably there are others, I don't know what he has in mind.
2:55:18
I'm going to meet this guy.
2:55:20
Absolutely.
2:55:21
Sergium?
2:55:24
Relatively young man.
2:55:36
Was he a Washington firm?
2:55:38
Yeah, probably.
2:55:39
Either Washington or New York.
2:55:41
I met him here.
2:55:48
Wealth Management, yeah, probably.
2:55:50
Yeah.
2:55:51
Probably.
2:55:54
How old is he?
2:56:04
No, that one is too old.
2:56:07
There is too, so many kids.
2:56:09
How old is he might be?
2:56:11
He can marry in 67.
2:56:17
He's 47.
2:56:19
He's probably 70.
2:56:23
65, 70.
2:56:25
50?
2:56:26
65, 70?
2:56:27
No.
2:56:28
Okay.
2:56:29
No.
2:56:30
It can't be that.
2:56:32
Why don't you give me the real...
2:56:34
Yeah, but wait.
2:56:36
I will tell you tomorrow...
2:56:39
Okay.
2:56:40
Tomorrow by noontime I will call you and tell you.
2:56:44
Got it.
2:56:46
I'm going to meet with this guy.
2:56:48
Okay.
2:56:50
But think of it once again.
2:56:53
Is it Golden City?
2:57:05
Probably.
2:57:07
How do we look?
2:57:08
Too many black people named Jimmy Walker.
2:57:39
All right.
2:57:40
Tomorrow you tell me.
2:57:41
I will tell you.
2:57:42
Okay.
2:57:43
Now, the other idea is what Terry has raised.
2:57:52
Can you tell me in one word what you think about?
2:57:55
The idea that we will establish certain operation, probably together, probably with him and with me and with Terry.
2:58:07
I don't know whether you are leaders or kind of want to...
2:58:10
Probably you are behind the scenes.
2:58:12
Yes.
2:58:13
Do you think they did something viable or basically it will take years to develop the reputation or whatever?
2:58:21
No, it's viable.
2:58:25
Yeah.
2:58:26
Because I remember Kissinger.
2:58:27
You mentioned Kissinger.
2:58:28
Kissinger once told me that he took to him, that he took him probably one half years to make the first one million.
2:58:41
That was ten...
2:58:43
Yeah.
2:58:44
He told me, you know, I once told you that you wanted to consult probably Westinghouse or OGE for making two banks for...
2:58:53
No, because what did he...
2:58:55
That's what I said to...
2:58:56
That was why I said Kissinger was policy.
2:58:59
Yeah.
2:59:00
Strategy policy.
2:59:01
Yeah.
2:59:02
So what does that mean?
2:59:03
It means everything and nothing.
2:59:04
Yeah.
2:59:05
So it takes...
2:59:07
It's too long because nobody knows what it is.
2:59:09
Yeah.
2:59:10
In your case and in his case, it's security...
2:59:13
Yeah.
2:59:14
And economy.
2:59:15
And economy.
2:59:16
It's very simple.
2:59:17
It's a totally different deal.
2:59:19
Yeah, no, I think...
2:59:24
So you think it's viable.
2:59:25
It's viable.
2:59:26
So probably we'll have to sit without asking you to send, be an offer to send, to sit down
2:59:31
together with Teria first, later on with...
2:59:34
Teria's coming.
2:59:35
Are you going to see him, or you're not going to see him tomorrow?
2:59:38
He's here.
2:59:39
He'll be here tomorrow.
2:59:40
Here?
2:59:41
Not here.
2:59:42
I'm leaving in the morning.
2:59:43
He'll be in New York tomorrow, Teria.
2:59:45
He's coming in at three o'clock, I think.
2:59:47
Probably.
2:59:48
I don't know.
2:59:49
Probably...
2:59:50
I see him Monday night.
2:59:51
Yeah.
2:59:52
Yeah.
2:59:53
Okay.
2:59:54
I'll be...
2:59:55
I'm going to see Larry tomorrow.
2:59:56
I'm taking Larry to Florida.
3:00:00
I think the following.
3:00:01
Start to think it over with Teria.
3:00:05
What could be the structure?
3:00:06
What could be the idea?
3:00:07
What could be the kind of services?
3:00:08
Yes.
3:00:09
The business model.
3:00:10
How do we make money out of it?
3:00:11
Should it be a contract with the government?
3:00:12
Yeah, kind of advice.
3:00:13
That's also something that I've heard from you or from Teria, I believe.
3:00:15
That Tony Blair, for example, is doing probably 11 million per year from the Kazakhstan government
3:00:22
just to give them advice to help them with lobbying and some NGOs and UN organizations.
3:00:40
Tony has turned funny.
3:00:45
I don't know what Tony is doing for money.
3:00:47
And I don't know if the money Tony is getting is actually to Tony or to somebody else.
3:00:52
Sorry?
3:00:55
Who could it be?
3:00:56
Because it goes to Tony because they need help so Tony gets to pay some of the money to
3:01:01
somebody else.
3:01:02
Because I hear gigantic numbers giving to Tony.
3:01:04
Five million here, ten million here, five million there.
3:01:07
Tony's not making thirty million dollars a year.
3:01:09
Yeah, but it became quite, I can't judge from the style of his watches.
3:01:16
Yes, but he's making ten million a year.
3:01:18
Yeah, probably.
3:01:19
Yeah, but probably he gets the money and he leaves some of it with others.
3:01:23
Yeah, probably.
3:01:24
Probably some of the providers.
3:01:26
But again, see Tony is much more, you have for the moment, and that's, one of the things
3:01:34
is we have to do it fast.
3:01:35
Yeah.
3:01:36
Yeah.
3:01:37
Yeah, because it fades away very fast.
3:01:39
Very fast.
3:01:40
Very fast.
3:01:41
Yeah, I will not have an opportunity to say, to talk this way to...
3:01:45
That's correct.
3:01:46
...the fans, but once.
3:01:48
Correct.
3:01:49
Right now.
3:01:50
I fully understand the opportunity.
3:01:52
Okay, but this one is also something that we have to discuss, because we can do it beyond
3:01:59
anything else, and it can end up being both the advice for them, and probably part of
3:02:04
the model is the capacity to provide opportunity to some, think of some, we are advising some
3:02:15
country, which have kind of bauxite, and we get the...
3:02:22
Don't worry about that.
3:02:23
Don't worry about that.
3:02:24
So, just think about...
3:02:25
Opportunity to propose to a client...
3:02:28
I understand.
3:02:29
...the kind of aluminum field.
3:02:31
Look, Ian Osborne is 29 years old.
3:02:34
Yeah.
3:02:35
29.
3:02:36
So, Samsung pays him...
3:02:37
He has 10 clients paying him 3 million, and he does investments more.
3:02:41
He does?
3:02:42
So, one example, Samsung...
3:02:44
He found their fees for investment?
3:02:47
No.
3:02:48
No.
3:02:49
They said...
3:02:50
Because he's internet.
3:02:51
Yeah.
3:02:52
They said, we're going to give you 100 million, finest internet companies to buy, and you get
3:02:58
30% of the profit.
3:03:02
That's separate from his 3 million a year.
3:03:04
And he doesn't know anything...
3:03:06
This is brand new for him.
3:03:07
Yeah.
3:03:08
And he doesn't have your stature.
3:03:09
So, that's the concept.
3:03:10
It's 3 million a year, and if you find investment...
3:03:12
Yeah, but he's something...
3:03:14
I've noticed that he's socialite.
3:03:17
He's a kind of man who entertains himself, entertains people around, enjoy.
3:03:22
He genuinely enjoys being in a continuous party with people, and work, you know.
3:03:31
He's, in a way, a workaholic of social relationship where I'm a little bit more like Obama.
3:03:38
If I had to choose, I prefer to sit alone in a room rather than to intervene.
3:03:45
And it's not...
3:03:46
I cannot argue that it's a fault of mind to entertain people.
3:03:51
I can be serious with them, I can...
3:03:53
But that's why...
3:03:54
That's why, since you're not an entertainer, you can't explain yourself.
3:03:57
That's my point.
3:03:58
You have to...
3:03:59
You seem to be military, and you need to keep that in mind.
3:04:02
You don't...
3:04:03
You don't...
3:04:04
You don't want to be what they want.
3:04:07
You need to be what they think of you.
3:04:09
Yeah.
3:04:10
They think of you as military.
3:04:11
It has to be crisp, clear, and precise.
3:04:13
Yeah.
3:04:14
I will come...
3:04:15
I'll come back to Arian Osborne.
3:04:18
Okay.
3:04:19
So, start to think about it.
3:04:21
Yes.
3:04:22
I think that it's a good idea.
3:04:24
Now, Pritzker.
3:04:25
Pritzker asked me the same.
3:04:26
Tell me.
3:04:27
Try to make a metric.
3:04:29
Yes.
3:04:30
What are your areas where you have certain genuine...
3:04:35
Do you have any...
3:04:37
Can you help him in Iraq?
3:04:39
No.
3:04:40
Okay.
3:04:41
Not really.
3:04:42
Probably within the Kurdish area, yes.
3:04:46
But the Iraqi government, I don't believe.
3:04:49
Okay.
3:04:50
No, I don't.
3:04:51
And not Turkey.
3:04:52
I can do it in direct.
3:04:54
For example, I met yesterday David Petreros.
3:04:58
You did?
3:04:59
I'm one of the only ones who...
3:05:02
Keep kind of respecting him in public.
3:05:05
Where is he?
3:05:06
He is now...
3:05:07
I met him with his wife, Holly.
3:05:10
In a gathering that...
3:05:13
Katie Reynolds arranged some...
3:05:15
Oh, Catholic?
3:05:16
For me on the roof of the...
3:05:19
Harry Adams.
3:05:20
And he stood up to congratulate him.
3:05:26
Right.
3:05:27
I was quite impressed.
3:05:28
I didn't know how to respond.
3:05:30
But we talked a little bit.
3:05:33
He is one of the most respected people.
3:05:36
Clearly have connections in Iraq.
3:05:41
I can create a contact with him.
3:05:44
Tom already knows him pretty well.
3:05:46
Yeah, okay.
3:05:47
Tom thinks he's...
3:05:48
He doesn't need me.
3:05:49
But he also thinks he's potentially toxic.
3:05:52
Probably, in terms of his background.
3:05:55
Okay.
3:05:56
We can...
3:05:57
I can easily find...
3:05:58
What's he going to do, Petreros?
3:06:00
I believe he's looking for opportunities in private equity.
3:06:05
Probably to join hands with one of the players.
3:06:10
Private equity helps him take some money.
3:06:14
Like what...
3:06:15
What's his name?
3:06:16
The commander of the Balkans that...
3:06:23
General Clark.
3:06:24
What's the Clark?
3:06:25
Very, very Clark.
3:06:27
Rept himself with a flag.
3:06:30
And...
3:06:31
What's Panetta going to do?
3:06:35
I don't know.
3:06:38
I don't know.
3:06:39
He told me I'm going to invite you for...
3:06:41
To give a speech, not for free, in the Panetta Foundation.
3:06:45
In some...
3:06:46
He wants to rest.
3:06:48
But we contemplated establishing an operation
3:06:53
where Jeremy Basha was the aide.
3:07:01
Right.
3:07:02
And Yoni, Koren.
3:07:05
Will be our office and sensors.
3:07:09
Sensors.
3:07:10
And they will bring ideas where...
3:07:14
Either one of us can do something.
3:07:18
We do it to get established some kind of...
3:07:20
You like Panetta?
3:07:21
Yeah.
3:07:22
I like him very much.
3:07:23
I like him.
3:07:24
I trust him.
3:07:25
We can work together very well.
3:07:26
That could be interesting as well.
3:07:28
If I can...
3:07:29
If I can...
3:07:30
It will be...
3:07:31
I will...
3:07:32
Teach you a chord.
3:07:33
And he plays the piano.
3:07:34
He does?
3:07:35
Yeah.
3:07:38
See...
3:07:39
Even Panetta, you and him...
3:07:40
Yeah.
3:07:41
Could be better than with...
3:07:42
You can raise it with Panetta.
3:07:48
That...
3:07:49
That's a strong deal.
3:07:51
Yeah.
3:07:52
Okay.
3:07:53
But he...
3:07:54
He...
3:07:55
He feels quite satisfied.
3:07:58
I...
3:07:59
I didn't...
3:08:00
He told me I probably will do some boards and...
3:08:02
Whatever.
3:08:03
Yeah.
3:08:04
But...
3:08:05
He is kind of guy I believe that he is...
3:08:07
About my age probably a year older or younger.
3:08:10
I don't know.
3:08:11
So he probably might think that he is...
3:08:13
Okay.
3:08:14
It's great to live in Carmel or Monterrey.
3:08:16
Right.
3:08:17
At a farm or whatever.
3:08:19
Right.
3:08:22
So...
3:08:23
The way that he raised it...
3:08:24
Signaled to me that he preferred that some...
3:08:28
Younger guys will do most of their job for us.
3:08:32
Right.
3:08:33
And we...
3:08:34
Step in when it's...
3:08:36
Becomes absolutely necessary...
3:08:38
To make sure that something is closed.
3:08:40
Right.
3:08:41
Um...
3:08:42
Okay.
3:08:43
So...
3:08:44
So...
3:08:45
And you...
3:08:46
The...
3:08:47
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
3:08:49
The guy who is...
3:08:50
Testified.
3:08:51
Dempsey.
3:08:52
Yes.
3:08:53
Dempsey is still in service.
3:08:54
But I can, for example, take Malin.
3:08:56
Right.
3:08:57
Malin, he might know...
3:08:59
He is now in...
3:09:00
Right.
3:09:01
Or McChrystal.
3:09:02
McChrystal is also...
3:09:03
Could be toxic in a way.
3:09:04
Right.
3:09:05
Or in a different way.
3:09:06
Uh...
3:09:07
So...
3:09:08
But who do you have the best relationship with?
3:09:10
Panetta?
3:09:11
Yeah.
3:09:12
Okay.
3:09:13
Among the security...
3:09:14
Yes.
3:09:15
People in America.
3:09:16
Yeah.
3:09:17
By far.
3:09:18
I know Gates for a longer time, but he's a kind of...
3:09:22
Cold fish.
3:09:23
We were friendly.
3:09:24
We were there.
3:09:25
I visited him when we were both in...
3:09:27
He headed some university somewhere in a remote place in...
3:09:32
A&M University in...
3:09:33
If Iran goes nuclear sometime in the next three years, how much do you think...
3:09:47
You at one point had suggested that it would...
3:09:53
Everybody looks up to somebody above them, but in the case of you and Bibi, there was nobody
3:09:57
to look up to.
3:09:58
We have to look in the mirror.
3:09:59
Only there's someone there that we cannot...
3:10:01
You can't see.
3:10:02
He's not answering the phone.
3:10:04
Uh...
3:10:05
Will it be seen, do you think, that you guys didn't do what you were supposed to do?
3:10:12
That's not clear.
3:10:15
Depends on many...
3:10:17
Quite probably, you know, the same people who were ready to lie on the road to block us
3:10:24
We'll ask, why the hell didn't you overcome all your or our reputation?
3:10:30
You can expect anything, but...
3:10:33
I don't know.
3:10:34
I...
3:10:35
I don't think so, because basically we never pretended that you can destroy it fully at one stroke.
3:10:43
So the counterargument could always be, okay, we could delay them by two and a half years
3:10:48
or three years or whatever.
3:10:50
Uh-huh.
3:10:51
And you cannot know for sure how long...
3:10:53
But leave it.
3:10:54
We have now more, more...
3:10:56
No, what I want to know is, what's your risk?
3:11:00
I'm trying to think about...
3:11:01
Ah, yeah.
3:11:02
That's where I'm going.
3:11:03
You know, are you doing something...
3:11:05
I'm not going to be blamed for the fact that it's probably more the president.
3:11:10
Okay.
3:11:11
Yeah.
3:11:13
So, with Pritzker, he asked me to try to...
3:11:16
Yes.
3:11:17
Vertically, horizontally...
3:11:18
But he...
3:11:19
Tom uses the phrase, I owe yous.
3:11:21
Yeah.
3:11:22
Right.
3:11:23
So, who owes you a favor?
3:11:26
Who owes you something?
3:11:27
That's what he said to me ten times already.
3:11:30
Yeah.
3:11:31
Okay.
3:11:32
So, an example is a class time.
3:11:34
But there is no way to prove it or to really leverage it.
3:11:38
It's not about...
3:11:39
It's about a certain sentiment in the mind of someone, rather than a compelling need
3:11:45
to do something.
3:11:47
When I left Prime Minister, the role of Prime Minister, Nazarbayev felt this way toward me.
3:11:54
Because in several international gatherings, I praised him and he knew that I talked to Clinton
3:12:01
and told him it doesn't make sense to behave with him.
3:12:05
He cannot jump immediately into the Maryland standards.
3:12:10
And even the Maryland standards were not that perfect.
3:12:12
Right.
3:12:13
Quite recently, let's say.
3:12:14
And, you know, so he felt this way.
3:12:21
And once I used it, I went there some seven years ago, brought with me an Israeli billionaire
3:12:28
with a Kazakh billionaire and they waited until they were there.
3:12:34
And he asked, what do you want?
3:12:35
And they described some big operation to take gas and oil from Turkmenistan across their
3:12:42
area jointly.
3:12:43
Right.
3:12:44
And nothing ended up.
3:12:46
And since then, ten years, it's a long time.
3:12:49
I cannot think of someone who owes me something.
3:12:56
But I have a very good relationship that stems out of certain sentiment with Putin.
3:13:04
I can approach him, I can talk to him in a way that few, I believe, dare to or feel free
3:13:11
to do and I always find him responsive, very warm, very kind of, you know, from a long distance.
3:13:19
But did you have a relationship when you were prime minister or defense minister with someone
3:13:23
from Turkish government, someone from the Jordanians?
3:13:29
Yeah.
3:13:30
Who you, you know, you used, who was it?
3:13:35
Before you used to have a good relationship with Suleiman, right?
3:13:38
With?
3:13:39
Egypt, Suleiman, what was it?
3:13:41
Yeah, Omar Sleiman.
3:13:42
Right.
3:13:43
Yeah, with Omar Sleiman I worked for years.
3:13:44
He liked you.
3:13:45
Yeah.
3:13:46
I remember.
3:13:47
Yeah, yeah, he, yeah.
3:13:49
But he really owed us.
3:13:52
He owed us his courage in a way.
3:13:55
And Mubarak owed us a lot in more than one way.
3:13:59
Right.
3:14:00
So they were, in a sensitive moment you can always look at him in the eye and remind him
3:14:10
that you remember our relationship that started now for many, many years and it became based
3:14:17
on mutual trust and reasons to attract a hand to each other, critical points and it will immediately
3:14:27
bring to his memory.
3:14:29
Right.
3:14:30
I don't think...
3:14:31
So that's the question.
3:14:32
So who else on this case...
3:14:33
Koki.
3:14:34
Who else liked that?
3:14:35
Because that's the thing Tom was asking.
3:14:38
That's that type of person.
3:14:40
Maybe it is Putin.
3:15:06
Putin is a guy.
3:15:14
What happened to Suleiman?
3:15:15
He's dead.
3:15:16
If I depart, send a message to him, and I left.
3:15:17
My man, I want to meet with him, he will accept me.
3:15:18
If I will ask a favour that he can influence, he will probably do it.
3:15:19
As a kind of sign of trust and distress for him for many reasons, that it cost him that.
3:16:09
I don't want to end in the way that Schroeder ended with him.
3:16:15
Schroeder did the same.
3:16:19
So they nominated him to be the representative of Gazprom,
3:16:24
in Germany or in Europe, whatever,
3:16:30
and to be responsible for the pipe that he approved before he left.
3:16:38
But when you ask a German leading politician about Schroeder,
3:16:46
they almost feel uneasy.
3:16:52
But I could find something else that I ask him,
3:16:56
if it's a favor or the kind of which he can, he might do it.
3:17:03
How often did you talk? When was the last time you spoke to him?
3:17:06
Or dealt with him? Two years?
3:17:10
No, a year.
3:17:13
I don't talk to him often.
3:17:15
So what I would do...
3:17:19
It's something that from the day one that he came to the Kremlin,
3:17:27
as Prime Minister, we replaced a guy named Stepasin.
3:17:31
I was already Prime Minister, I visited Yelchin when Stepasin was there,
3:17:39
and then visited them when Putin just came in,
3:17:49
was still kind of new.
3:17:51
And since then we kept good relationship,
3:17:54
visiting in Sochi, in St. Petersburg, in Moscow.
3:17:57
Visiting socially or business-wise?
3:17:59
Yeah, socially.
3:18:01
We did a visit...
3:18:03
I told him that I'm going, I don't remember too well.
3:18:07
I don't remember.
3:18:10
And he asked, come to Moscow.
3:18:12
I said, okay, I come to Moscow.
3:18:13
He said, oh no, I'm in Sochi.
3:18:15
Please come to Sochi.
3:18:16
I came to Sochi.
3:18:17
We just sat down with him in his palace.
3:18:21
He proposed to play, you know, a billiard or whatever.
3:18:25
He kind of hugs me.
3:18:29
It reminds a story that I told him.
3:18:32
There is some sense of...
3:18:35
When I'm telling him the truth about him,
3:18:38
and I'm talking to him very frankly.
3:18:43
And he frankly kind of...
3:18:45
Someone that looks at him at the eye level,
3:18:47
talks to him and says,
3:18:48
I don't think that you are doing the right thing for you
3:18:51
and for this or that.
3:18:53
I think you should look at things
3:18:55
and he listens very carefully.
3:18:57
He respects his way of direct talk.
3:19:00
I don't think that there are anyone who
3:19:04
really owes me something in the sense that...
3:19:07
Nobody means...
3:19:09
You know, in a way, Ban Ki-moon
3:19:12
doesn't owe me anything,
3:19:14
but I believe that a long time
3:19:17
he developed a kind of respect for me.
3:19:20
I helped him to appear better
3:19:23
in many small cases around the way.
3:19:26
He told me bluntly that he is ready to help me
3:19:33
the moment I see even in his grunt.
3:19:36
So the key would be...
3:19:39
I would think about, not decided,
3:19:42
that at some point you can say,
3:19:44
look, I would send a note to Putin,
3:19:47
saying I'm going to leave government
3:19:49
in March 14th.
3:19:52
I'm going to be in Scandinavia
3:19:56
or I plan to be in northern Europe.
3:20:00
we should have dinner.
3:20:04
That's it.
3:20:06
No more...
3:20:07
It has to be very short.
3:20:10
In terms of recent military responsibility for you,
3:20:16
how would you describe your strength now?
3:20:21
Is it strategy, operations, tactics?
3:20:29
How do you think about...
3:20:31
Let me just write down...
3:20:33
Putin for dinner.
3:20:35
Or tea.
3:20:38
Tea or vodka.
3:20:39
You can meet somewhere.
3:20:40
Are you going to be in Paris?
3:20:41
We should have...
3:20:42
We should make a plan to meet sometime
3:20:45
in the next two months after...
3:20:47
I can just tell him I would like to meet with you.
3:20:49
That's it.
3:20:50
Right.
3:20:51
Right.
3:20:52
He will say come.
3:20:54
Right.
3:20:55
Nothing...
3:20:56
He will say come.
3:20:57
Right.
3:20:58
He will...
3:20:59
He loves to sit with me...
3:21:00
Right.
3:21:01
...and talk.
3:21:02
Always with someone
3:21:04
because he doesn't trust his English.
3:21:06
He takes one of his personal kind of things.
3:21:11
Okay.
3:21:12
What was the next point?
3:21:15
Well, the question I want to know is...
3:21:17
In terms of your military competence.
3:21:20
Let me tell you.
3:21:21
I sat down yesterday for the second time,
3:21:24
a week earlier in Tel Aviv,
3:21:26
with the lady who runs Robin Martin.
3:21:30
And I talked to her about the erections in...
3:21:38
what weights them downstream.
3:21:42
The risk that the F-35 is the last...
3:21:46
fighter with the pilot in it.
3:21:48
For good reasons.
3:21:50
And that probably many countries will not buy it.
3:21:53
And even those who bought it might show...
3:21:56
reluctant to see a reduction in performance
3:22:01
or the climbing prices.
3:22:04
And basically, unlike the situation 20 years ago,
3:22:08
the decision makers are not really looking for fighters
3:22:11
that can win a war because they don't believe
3:22:13
that there will be a war with the Earth.
3:22:15
Right.
3:22:16
...the life cycle of the Earth.
3:22:19
So they are ready to settle for something much simpler,
3:22:24
cheaper, but still flies.
3:22:26
Yes.
3:22:27
And then...
3:22:28
Yes.
3:22:29
And I talked to her about the need to balance,
3:22:34
what weights...
3:22:35
I thought...
3:22:37
I looked at her.
3:22:39
She is an intelligent woman that was pushed
3:22:42
under the circle into the top world.
3:22:44
Yes.
3:22:45
I think that no one at her leadership
3:22:50
talks to her this way
3:22:52
without insulting her or something.
3:22:55
Right, right.
3:22:56
much more authority,
3:22:57
knows what is perfect,
3:22:58
knows what happens,
3:22:59
follow the industry...
3:23:00
Yes.
3:23:01
Yes.
3:23:02
...the generation before,
3:23:03
and she was just...
3:23:04
and she's not very fast,
3:23:06
she's almost 60, probably 67, I know.
3:23:10
And with such a wide kind of penetrating,
3:23:13
thoughtful insights about what is going to happen,
3:23:19
what should be the fraction of...
3:23:22
Yes.
3:23:23
...dependence on a contract from the Pentagon,
3:23:26
and to what extent,
3:23:27
what should be balanced between F-16,
3:23:30
F-16 which they are now cost 4500 or so,
3:23:35
and the F-22 that ended,
3:23:38
and the F-35 that will be...
3:23:41
I don't believe that it will become popular,
3:23:44
but no one has the money to pay for it,
3:23:47
except for...
3:23:49
Right.
3:23:50
...except for us,
3:23:51
you see, Canada.
3:23:52
So do you really believe that Canadians really think
3:23:54
that they will have to order it flying against the hertz
3:23:58
of Tupole if they're crossing over the port?
3:24:02
And for some of the Arabs,
3:24:04
it will become a kind of token of prestige,
3:24:07
to have the best peace,
3:24:08
but not more.
3:24:10
And I told them about the need to find what should be done,
3:24:16
and what's going to happen in the...
3:24:18
Yes.
3:24:19
And I thought that, you know,
3:24:21
I have the combination.
3:24:24
It's not policy.
3:24:26
I have the combination of insights into the strategic level of it,
3:24:31
but very deep understanding, detailed understandings of everything from technology,
3:24:41
to tactics, to the use, and to the...
3:24:45
even the fallacy,
3:24:47
why Boeing failed after investing probably 5 billion in the future combat system for the ground forces,
3:24:55
and how such an issue should be approached in order not to repeat mistakes.
3:25:00
So, in a way, it can be strategic,
3:25:04
with a lot of deep fingers,
3:25:07
deep understanding what's feasible,
3:25:10
what's not feasible, what's needed,
3:25:12
what armed forces of sophisticated countries will need, you know,
3:25:15
to fight, not the previous ones,
3:25:17
but the future ones as they have.
3:25:20
You know, I'm...
3:25:22
But could you sit on the board of Martin Mariette?
3:25:25
I don't know. I didn't check it.
3:25:27
Probably not.
3:25:28
If I did it immediately,
3:25:31
it's...
3:25:32
It's a little bit bizarre.
3:25:34
And when the Americans...
3:25:35
Because I...
3:25:36
We all this kind of...
3:25:37
When the Americans buy,
3:25:39
give Israel 2 billion dollars,
3:25:41
with the requirement that 75% of it gets bought,
3:25:45
buys American stuff,
3:25:47
how does it actually work?
3:25:49
It works.
3:25:50
We run through the operational system,
3:25:53
the priorities there, I approve it,
3:25:55
and I signed the order,
3:25:57
the signing of the contracts.
3:26:00
So I think it would be a little bit strange,
3:26:03
but in fact we had some of the general managers,
3:26:06
former Air Force Commanders,
3:26:08
general manager of the Ministry of Defense,
3:26:15
ended up being now a major,
3:26:17
kind of a high-level consultant for Boeing.
3:26:21
Right.
3:26:22
Or the president of Boeing Israel,
3:26:26
for whatever it is,
3:26:27
and his wife.
3:26:28
Right.
3:26:29
But I don't...
3:26:30
I just mentioned it as an example.
3:26:33
Probably after a year I can do it,
3:26:35
or probably I can do it,
3:26:36
if it's clear that I'm not going to deal in any way with Israel.
3:26:40
Yeah, exactly.
3:26:41
But in terms of your defense...
3:26:44
You know, look for example at the drones.
3:26:47
I am the person who basically made it fly.
3:26:54
By 30...
3:26:56
By 30...
3:26:57
By 30...
4,554 segmentsTranscribed by Epstein Pipeline (faster-whisper)