0:01It's not easy to see how they effectively run the next deputy in Basque Creek.
0:06I don't disagree with anything you said.
0:21And I don't know who he trusts on these kinds of...
0:43I don't know who the president really trusts.
0:46On these kinds of strategic...
0:52Yeah, but he doesn't...
0:54I read you with Valerie Jarrett.
0:56There is a woman named Samantha...
1:02Yeah, but he doesn't...
1:14There's a difference between who he trusts and who he likes.
1:25Do you know Valerie Jarrett?
1:30I don't know as well enough.
1:32But I noticed that she...
1:34You know, but she don't know.
1:36I noticed that he listens to her.
1:44His door, his telephone is always open for her.
1:49He listens to her, he believes her instincts about politics, about who is against him, who
1:56is for him, what's going around, who is cooking what from Chicago to the world.
2:06Do you think Richard Nixon ultimately cared what Bibi...
2:13Listened to what Bibi Robozo thought?
2:17You may not know this name.
2:23No, I don't remember.
2:26Bibi Robozo was some kind of business...
2:31Semi-corrupt business guy who was Richard Nixon's best friend.
2:36And whenever Richard Nixon went to, you know, Key Biscayne or went to California, Bibi Robozo
2:42Richard Nixon would spend a lot of time on Bibi Robozo's boat.
2:46And if Bibi Robozo wanted something, Richard Nixon would say.
2:50But I don't think when Richard Nixon was deciding what to do about the...
2:55He was talking to Bibi Robozo.
3:02In this regard, he's probably alone, but he feels, compared to other leaders that
3:12I happened to meet in the last decades, Obama impressed me as an extremely autonomous
3:23That's what I'm saying.
3:24He feels good with himself, even though he's alone in the room.
3:29I didn't see in him what we know in Clinton, or in our Paris.
3:34I have an intelligent experience there, emotionally or psychologically.
3:40There is there, deep in there, within the personality, and anxiety.
3:46For explicit expressions of love.
3:49Obama didn't see anything of this in Obama.
3:53I mean, there's lots of things, lots of things to say like that.
4:01Somebody told me the story that...
4:04Bob Reich told me this story.
4:07This is Robert Reich, who was Secretary of Labor.
4:12He said he had been a friend of Clinton's.
4:16They'd been students together in England, so he was kind of Clinton's friend.
4:21He said that if he went to a cabinet meeting, and whenever Clinton looked at him, he looked
4:28annoyed or looked away, for sure Clinton would call within two days.
4:35Is there something on your mind?
4:38He just wanted the love.
4:40If you tried that shit with Obama, you'd freeze in hell before he called.
4:46I mean, Obama didn't...
4:50He was pretty much sitting.
4:51He had lunch alone half the days.
4:54I mean, they would schedule in, like, time for him to be alone.
4:58And if he did some event, where, you know, he was speaking to a thousand people, they
5:04would give him, like, a little rest time afterwards.
5:11Too many human beings around him.
5:14Yeah, he just wanted to be...
5:20And, you know, it's the same.
5:22He wants to be with the people he wants to be with.
5:24I think it's a source of strength, ultimately, in tough moments in politics.
5:29Probably, it's not the most effective way to mobilize people.
5:34No, but it's a very...
5:36Or, look, another thing, which I'm sure they tried a lot of times.
5:42You know, if you were president...
5:44Let's say you're president of the United States, and you like to play golf.
5:50You're president of the United States, and you like to play golf.
5:57It's a big asset, it's a potential big political asset.
6:03You like to play golf.
6:05The president likes to play golf with his buddies.
6:09And so, 80% of the golf is with the same three guys.
6:15His photographer, his campaign guy, and, you know, his three buddies from Chicago.
6:20That's who played golf.
6:21Now, most people, if they were president and they played golf, you know, they'd play golf with
6:27people from Congress, they'd play golf with business guys, they'd play golf with people
6:32Read Clinton's memoirs.
6:34It's all boring, because it's like a list of the specials, what he had done with anything,
6:38and still very careful not to insult anyone years after he's not in office anymore.
6:51He's extremely cerebral.
6:53Yeah, and he has this nickname, their nickname for him during the campaign was Black Jesus.
7:08Who knows what kind of character Jesus was?
7:11He has this sense of himself as not me, and removed.
7:24You know, I think of other elements.
7:26I think that when he looks at the pictures of all his predecessors, he doesn't see them all.
7:33He sees probably seven or eight of them.
7:36Probably Washington, Jefferson, I don't know.
7:40Of course Lincoln, probably Kennedy, Reagan, I don't know.
7:45He doesn't see the rest of them.
7:46He thinks in terms of greatness.
7:49I understand that greatness comes from few major achievements, sometimes against all
7:58us, that happen to be perceived at hindsight as...
8:08I think that when he sees, even on Iran, what really disturbs him is the possibility that
8:14this will be a great stain on his role.
8:18If they turn nuclear under his term, under his watch, where he had, you know, Bush, it's a paradox,
8:28you know, you will to joke in Israel that labor governments can make war, and only the Kurds
8:40governments can make peace.
8:42But here you find something similar.
8:44The Bush administration, they can learn very high rhetoric.
8:48But in effect, they were parallel even from ordering the Pentagon to plan contingencies for certain days.
8:56And this administration, they got Nobel Peace Prize as a down payment before they even started.
9:02Somehow, they are planning and preparing much more seriously.
9:07I think the Pentagon right now, they keep improving the...
9:11I want to scorn American colleagues that when we are talking about surgical operations, we are talking about using scalpel.
9:21And they are talking about chisels with 10-pound hammer.
9:26But in the last several years, they developed extremely subtle scalpel, probably more effective than ours.
9:38And bearing in mind that they hold a big stick there, anyhow, without having to announce it.
9:49Basically, I once told the president, look, I'm confident that if on a scale, a spectrum,
9:57of operational decisions, a decision to delay the Iranian nuclear program by several years,
10:06would look more like a raid on bin Laden than a fully fledged war in Iraq,
10:16you might have considered very seriously already.
10:20It is only the fact that somehow people succeeded in implementing in your mind an extremely dramatic scenario
10:31that might eventually develop out of it.
10:35That makes you judge it as something closer to the other pole.
10:42And that's not an accurate description of reality.
10:48Didn't you start out, I might not have this exactly right, but I think he started thinking that part of his grand legacy
11:08was that he was going to bring hope and harmony to the big Middle East.
11:15That he was going to give the Cairo speech, that the Islamic world was going to feel better about him, that Israel was going to be induced to be constructive,
11:26that there was going to be peace in the West Bank, and then everybody was going to feel better, and he was going to do for Iran what Nixon did for China.
11:37And so I think he started with the idea that he was going to be a visionary great man.
11:43And I think he's learned in the last four years that that's not going to happen.
11:48And now I think he thinks, and now I think it's much more defensive.
11:53That is, I think he's trying to avoid a stain rather than to have it, rather than to have it achieved, is my sense.
12:03I shouldn't be very sorry.
12:04Is my sense watching him.
12:13I have this sense that people always say the next year is the crucial year, the next nine months are the crucial nine months.
12:36But then it sort of...
12:41Moves a quarter every quarter.
12:46Moves forward a quarter every quarter.
12:49It's like shale oil was, you know, I think it's no longer true, but for 40 years, the price
12:55at which shale oil would be profitable was the same.
12:59The current price of oil plus 10.
13:02Yeah, but it's 100 plus 10 is different.
13:08Okay, it's no longer...
13:14Is Iran likely to come to a crunch in the next, um, in the next year?
13:24To reach a nuclear capacity?
13:26Is there likely to be...
13:28I mean, that's one question, but I mean...
13:30So, things that could happen are...
13:32There could be an attack.
13:33Let me describe it before.
13:35Iranians will always act based on what they feel, to what extent the other side, mainly
13:46the United States and Israel, are ready to act.
13:49They are clever enough to act counter-cyclic, counter-cyclic.
13:57Namely, when the attention of the whole world somewhere else, or for other reasons,
14:04will be paralyzed from doing something, they will be hectic.
14:10When all of us are focused on it and stand ready, they might even go with further gambits.
14:17They might announce that they stop everything for a year.
14:22And they are chess players, extremely clever.
14:26But they are determined to follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and North Korea.
14:32And not to fall into the trap with, in a way, the Qaddafi, late Qaddafi, or under other circumstances, the South Africans fell into.
14:47And clearly they want not to end with something like Iraq or Syria.
14:52So the very fact that I can quote these three pairs of examples means that there is an opening for them.
15:02So there is a need for something much more dramatic than the present kind of level of sanction.
15:07They are very unprecedented and very painful for them.
15:11It reduced their reserves dramatically.
15:16And some of the reserves are practically blocked.
15:20They cannot approach it very easily.
15:22The real currency was evaluated dramatically.
15:33But as we know from other examples in the past, the elites don't suffer.
15:40See, that's what I was struck by.
15:42I was struck by the fact that I didn't see...
15:47If you treated the country as one actor doing what was best for the country, then I think there's a case to be made that the reward, take off the sanctions, give them rewards, they give up the nukes, all that.
16:09But if you take it from the point of view of the people who are there now, I don't see how if the sanctions come off and they give up the nukes, they're alive and in power a year later.
16:24You know, the basic strategy of the regime is to defend its continuity.
16:34And for them, I'm talking from time to time about the zone of immunity for the nuclear military program.
16:47But the whole program aims at achieving another layer of immunity, an immunity for the regime.
16:54They see, look at what happened right now in North Korea.
16:58They fully understand Iranians that once they turn nuclear.
17:03That's become the ultimate guarantee that no one will try to intervene within their internal...
17:10However brutal they might have to go with their own people.
17:14So they do not need it in order to drop a bomb on a neighbor.
17:22They need it in order to be able to spread terror, to hegemonize the region, to intimidate neighbors,
17:29and to be secure that whatever they are doing will not end up with someone trying to topple their regime.
17:36So I think that the problem is that for us, for Israel, time is running out.
17:45Because they keep enriching, they keep repairing more centrifuges and now start with a new version of centrifuges
17:53that will be only five times more effective in enrichment.
17:58That shortens the timeframe between decision and reaching weapon-grade capabilities running from 20% or whatever.
18:06They protect better the size, they improve their surface-to-air missile systems,
18:15the radars to identify stealth kind of airplanes or even kind of cruise missiles.
18:25They are not sleeping.
18:27They are not sleeping.
18:28They are not sleeping.
18:29They are not sleeping.
18:30They have already built a force of some 600-500 floating mines with GPS that can navigate, so to speak,
18:43their place into their places in the Strait of Humoz.
18:48And it's quite a converging effort to create enough redundancy that Israel, with its limited
19:00military potential, won't be able to delay them by significant time.
19:09And probably a year later, or 18 months later, even America won't be able to do it in a
19:16clearly surgical operation. And that's basically their calculation.
19:23So they do not have a timetable. It doesn't matter for them. They waited for nuclear weapons 4,000 years.
19:32They waited another four years or four years. It doesn't matter.
19:37They just want to reach it before they start to collapse as a regime.
19:43Will their election matter?
19:48It matters because it gives excuses to those who don't want to create a moment of truth, not to reach this moment.
19:58And the normal situation, the coming spring, it should have been a moment of truth.
20:04P5 plus 1 is going to meet in other times.
20:08Afterwards, probably a direct conversation.
20:11There was some woman that Valerie started to...
20:15She was born in Iran, in Shiraz. Her father...
20:20Valerie Jarrett was born in Iran, in Shiraz.
20:25Her father was before the revolution.
20:30He was heading in hospitals, financed by some international NGO, by American government,
20:37to help the Iranian people.
20:40So she was born there.
20:41And some others, even some former players, including one of my former colleagues and some former leading ambassadors,
21:00to try to create a direct contact with the Iranians to try to clarify what would be the terms of the wizard.
21:08And the Iranians assume, I know it, I'm not guessing, that this type of guy would not have contacted them without informing the MSC or State Department, Pentagon, etc.
21:26And so for them, even if the intention is not, it is read by the Iranians.
21:33And they might end up...
21:35I recommend it to my colleagues here too.
21:39I told them, we cannot pretend to be able to tell you whether to talk to them directly or not,
21:46if you feel that's ultimately necessary to...
21:49or absolutely necessary to make sure that you exhausted all alternatives.
21:55But if you do it, do it as early as possible, so that coming the election or coming April,
22:02they will have to face a choice.
22:04Because if they reach election, and you are still negotiating with them,
22:08they will tell their people, we are standing firm against the whole world, including America,
22:12they are all crawling to our doorstep to ask for some concessions.
22:17And at the same time, they keep moving. It's ridiculous.
22:21And I guess that even after election, someone else will be elected.
22:28Whoever he is, there will be people who will say, oh, that's a moderate cancer.
22:33They assume that they will elect someone who is less...
22:36just less... less... less... kind of less colourful than Achmedine Jahn.
22:44Immediately there will be interpretations that he is more serious, more moderate.
22:48If he is moderate, I am too light.
22:50That would make a difference.
22:52He should get a chance or it will swallow another quarter.
22:56So that's how 2013 is going to pass.
23:02That's one of the reasons why I decided to leave,
23:05because I don't see it converging into a moment, a real moment of truth or decision.
23:10It can easily drag over another year.
23:13But at a certain point they will return nuclear.
23:18I told the President, I remember Clinton.
23:20I never questioned his will to block the North level.
23:26But somehow it didn't happen.
23:29I told Jeff, I remember sitting with Bill Casey,
23:34in the Reagan time, as head of our intelligence.
23:38I got to Pakistan, it was exactly the same.
23:41How many sites, how many centrifuges,
23:44how about the plutonium bypass, where can they...
23:51Reagan wanted to see the non-nuclear,
23:53but that's what might easily happen here.
24:02And if it happens, now what?
24:05First of all, it will be the end of any considerable non-proliferation regime.
24:14Because it basically means that if you can defy the whole world,
24:17if you have enough money, not huge amounts of money,
24:22And it will start a much more self-confident intimidation of neighbors.
24:32But still the major supplier of oil to Europe, to the East, to the Faris.
24:38And the regimes there are already kind of crushed between two powers.
24:47One is Iran and the other is the Islamists in Turkey and Egypt.
24:51These are two corner pillars, kind of pillars of the Middle East.
24:58And the Saudi leadership, they are dying.
25:03I don't know how you call the phenomena where a candle is just about to die.
25:11The old mender is practically inactive.
25:16The second is deep in dementia.
25:18They now just nominated the third one, someone about our age,
25:25who was the head of Intelligent Mukher.
25:29But I don't believe that anyone sees him as a king.
25:33Probably a knife, another carving will become ultimate.
25:38But they are not self-confident.
25:40And Abdallah of Jordan is not self-confident.
25:43The UAE's, some of the Emirates are much more confident.
25:48Because of their money.
25:51The guitarists are kind of…
25:58They behave this way.
26:01I call them a TV station with an Emirates.
26:19He came to the security conference?
26:21And I talked to him.
26:26I met Kerry this morning.
26:28They don't know how to read the Qataris.
26:31They are totally confused there.
26:33And I told them they are just starting to hedge their bets against the possibility that you will be the…
26:41We will be the losers and the Iranians will be the we.
26:47They see Turkey and Egypt under Islamist government.
26:51So they become more Islamist.
26:53They see the discrimination of the Iranians and what happens in Iraq.
26:58So they turn more pro-Iranians.
27:00So it ends up that they are less pro…
27:05Pro us or pro the others.
27:11They're trying to survive.
27:17Even then I asked him…
27:18Are you starting to hedge your bets on this time?
27:23Look at Google Earth…
27:25In front of our shows…
27:26We will find certain place…
27:28Where you can find two wells…
27:3125 yards from each other.
27:37They were practically…
27:39Drinking from the same…
27:48Whoever has a bigger…
27:54And so we have to take it into account.
28:03What's happening in Egypt?
28:12You're the only players to have any leverage upon them…
28:16In spite of all their bad kind of…
28:24There are practical people…
28:28Morsi is an engineer…
28:32Should be the same diameter…
28:39It doesn't end with ideology…
28:53He's not a religious scholar…
28:58You have to vaccine…
28:59You have to make sure that the cow get pregnant…
29:07Supposed to run for presidency…
29:20They are all practical people…
29:21So they need to feed 80 million…
29:24To create a million jobs…
29:31Presence of multinationals…
29:47They need Americans…
29:48They believe that America…
29:56Any other organization…
30:00They understand that…
30:01It's all about economy…
30:06After a very short time…
30:12Stress of the public…
30:29To keep providing them…
31:06That you can never think…
31:23Something will happen…
31:25Maybe we'll succeed…
31:34Seems to be procreating…
31:51Are more productive…
32:13With three children…
32:51With an Arab majority…
33:01He was the one who negotiated with us…
33:10When he negotiated with Zipi Livnik…
33:12Far from the public eye…
33:36If you continue with this demand…
33:38Probably will turn it to…
33:47Every citizen will get a…
33:52Majority will decide…
33:53What could be simpler…
34:10Sight field is not full…
34:13Some people do not see…
34:15What's going to happen here…
34:19That's what happens to our society right now…
34:22And that's why it's not a zero-sum game…
34:24We are not making them a favor…
34:26Doing a favor to the Palestinians…
34:31Even within the borders of smaller Israel…
34:34There is still an issue…
34:37I think the Arabs are going…
34:48We should be able to make…
34:51To provide equality…
34:53First to the Duhuls…
34:57They are totally Israelis…
35:05They came for the president…
35:09Then we should take…
35:18They have an education system…
35:19Which is better than our…
35:34With a sense of being…
36:07It's a successful country…
36:16Under the social pressure…
36:19Of the second generation…
36:24And we can control the…
36:42We can be selective…
37:30You interview someone…
37:40Start to work together…
37:55And we have the background…
37:56It depends on what you look for…
38:21And all story is there…
38:29Is there any recognition…
38:33What you said about…
38:36Is the only prospect…
38:38But there doesn't seem to be…
39:04But the whole discussion…
39:43It's like taking a present…
40:26What should be done…
40:34The fully-fledged peace…
40:37An interim agreement…
40:48That within five years…
41:30With the Palestinians…
41:44They don't care about…
41:48They are fully aware…
41:53To work with Israel…
41:56If we are not going…
41:57With the Palestinians…
41:58And for the Israeli public…
42:00A kind of framework…
43:24That's been the argument…
43:27That's been the argument…
43:35The last fifteen years…
43:44In the negative sense…
43:58All the responsibility…
43:59Is upon the shoulders…
44:42Do people expect that Obama and Kerry are going to invest heavily in Israel-Palestinians?
44:52No, I don't think so.
44:54Or that they're going to stay away from it?
44:56Probably they dream about it, but I don't think.
45:01I think the reading of Obama with it is that he has to do it.
45:07There are even some stories that it was born in not exactly a normal way.
45:15But Peres, who got here a kind of liberty medal, planned to bring Obama in June,
45:27to bring him some medal of the Israeli president,
45:32to participate in a conference that Peres initiates last several years, every June,
45:39and to participate in his 90th birthday.
45:44If you can't arrange a funeral, at least arrange a birthday.
45:48And it was promoted by some people who supported Obama actively.
46:02So he said, okay, yes, no problem.
46:06Then his people heard about it, and some Jewish members heard about it,
46:12and said, are you crazy? Are you going to make a private visit to Shimon Peres after five years?
46:19The only way is to make a formal visit, and to be hosted by the Prime Minister.
46:25So he found himself there. Then he thought twice and thought, yeah, it's not that bad.
46:31Probably just to make sure that I cease to be the reason for everything,
46:37the fact that I didn't visit Israel, now that because of this everything is done.
46:44So, okay, let's be there, visit all the capital, talk to the people.
46:49So, I don't think this is going to dramatically.
46:56I mean, Clinton, you know this, you would know infinitely better than I,
47:01but Clinton at a certain point decided that this was his path to a Nobel Prize in history.
47:09And I don't think, Obama does not feel on that trajectory to me.
47:13He's got it already.
47:14But Kerry, it seems to me, will decide that's what he wants to do, won't he?
47:20I mean, the imperatives of Kerry's job are that if he wants to have a historic achievement to end his career,
47:27he's not going to get a historic achievement out of anything they do in the Pacific.
47:32I think he understands it, he plans to come to Israel probably even before, I don't know how to cut it.
47:43I don't want to take so much.
47:45I know, you can leave it on your plate.
47:47I think that Kerry made several missions for Obama in the past four years,
48:07sometimes with Palestinians.
48:13Sometimes with Karzai.
48:15Karzai, that's far from our middle.
48:19That was Assad, the younger side.
48:24When he came as a kind of freelancer, he used to be always over-ensociated.
48:30If by his very enthusiasm he will, it will...
48:36Yeah, you call it, yeah.
48:37Contagion will take place and they will all...
48:40Ensociated, before they land, they will have a...
48:50I looked at him, I spent some time with him one on one.
48:54He is more realistic now.
48:58So he knows, and he knows that he comes a little bit too early.
49:03Bibi doesn't have a fixed idea about what should be done,
49:07and then he makes the government, the government that can do it.
49:11He just waits to see what kind of government he has,
49:14and then he will modify what he wants to achieve.
49:17If Kerry comes too late, too early for this.
49:21But he wants to make sure that Abu Mazen is with him and will not disappear.
49:27He is more realistic.
49:31He needs a lot of luck.
49:33Probably some intervention from Heaven or some other players too.
49:38An opportunity for a fully fledged agreement to be created.
49:44Larry, since you left, who is now going to be leaving government,
49:55he is going to go into the real world after 50 years.
50:00It was his birthday two days ago, your birthday, yes?
50:10I was born exactly six scores and 13 years after Lincoln.
50:20And have you ever been in the private sector?
50:24You have been in government...
50:25I have been for several years.
50:26You were for several years after you were prime minister?
50:30You were in the private sector and...
50:34You were doing various kinds of business and...
50:38I was involved with two.
50:40Small private equity.
50:42Firms as a part of the general partner.
50:47And they have advice to several...
50:53Some of the biggest hedge funds and private equity.
50:57There's a consultant and made some lectures.
51:05And participate in some small-scale opportunities.
51:09Some Israel companies wanted to work in Africa, make IPO in London.
51:13They need someone who can be with them when they come to London,
51:18and the people will listen to them or whatever.
51:24And is that the kind of thing you're going to...
51:26Is that the kind of thing...
51:28You're going to try...
51:29You're going to try to do now?
51:31I think of making...
51:32Finding ways to make more money and to do something more substantive.
51:37I can't go with my agent from this position and start to actively, on a high-resolution level,
51:49running an operation as a CEO or whatever.
51:53That's a little bit too late in life.
52:00Do you think you're now done with government?
52:07Do you think you're now done?
52:11Or do you always looking for...
52:15I mean, Israeli politics...
52:17...is very cyclical.
52:19I don't have any kind of burning, compelling motive to come back and prove something justified.
52:33But with our kind of eclectic, chaotic kind of move in the stage where we are,
52:46I cannot exclude that under certain types of crisis I might be called to play a certain role.
52:58I don't look backward with any kind of hard feelings or needs.
53:03Unlike, I don't know, if you knew Sharon.
53:08Sharon was burning with a kind of sense of something that had not been completed
53:15from the time he could not become the chief of Staten.
53:18He could not become a prime minister.
53:21He was a defense minister who was sent out under a kind of inquiry commission
53:25that blamed him with some mishaps and so ever.
53:29So he was burning it.
53:31And he didn't see even the lines.
53:34He basically got a stroke in the evening or the morning.
53:38The major headline said that he got, according to the police,
53:423.5 billion as a bribe to finance some kind of political activity.
53:49Even Rabin was burning with need to come back after his first...
53:56I don't have a... fully satisfied.
54:00But I know that I might be called.
54:03So I would not do something that deliberately and for sure will close the way back.
54:12But I would not hesitate to go something that might, with significant probability,
54:18will scratch me in a way that will make it almost impossible to come back.
54:28Probably the way to have the greatest chance to come back is to look least interested and eager to come back.
54:56I think that's an irony of...
54:58I think an irony of political life is that when you look like you don't need it,
55:03and don't want it...
55:08It's... you become more... you become more... you become more desirable.
55:13You become more desirable as a... as a consequence.
55:19But you'd like... you would go back to government at this stage?
55:23I'm like he... I'm... I wasn't prime minister... I wasn't prime minister of my country,
55:28and I'm not going to be president... I'm not going to be president of my... of my country.
55:37I am, I think, in the same general... I'm a little younger. I'm 58.
55:43But I'm in the same general place, I think, that... that Ehud is.
55:49There were moments in my life when I was burning to do things.
55:54I was... you know, in the 1990s, I was burning to become secretary of the treasury.
56:00I was very... I very much wanted to go back into government and help do something about this financial...
56:09this financial crisis in 2008.
56:13Now, if there was... if there was... if the right role... if the right role presented itself...
56:19at all of that, I would go... I don't want to do anything that would...
56:25I don't want to carelessly foreclose options, since I don't know what I'm going to want in the future.
56:35But, unlike... to take somebody I was friendly with... Richard Holbrooke...
56:42Whenever Richard Holbrooke was not in government...
56:46His whole life was organized around...
56:49figuring out how to maximize the chance...
56:54...of getting back into government.
56:56I remember when I would travel, people would ask me... you know...
57:00Before 2008, people... I remember in India once... they asked me...
57:05You know, where was the Democratic Party...
57:08Where's the Democratic Party going to be on the non-proliferation agreement?
57:12And I said to... and they had been talking about Holbrooke...
57:14And I said, well, what did Holbrooke think?
57:19Well, Holbrooke thinks it's a good idea.
57:20Holbrooke's supporting our position.
57:22And I said, well, then the Democratic Party will support it.
57:26I remember somebody saying...
57:27Does he have that much influence?
57:35He will not have taken a position...
57:39That has any substantial chance...
57:42By whoever the Democratic presidential candidate will be.
57:46I don't want to live my life...
57:55When he was out of...
57:57He never really enjoyed being out of government Holbrooke.
58:02It was all about getting back into...
58:04It was all about getting back into government.
58:10I've known him fairly well for the last 15 years or so, but I didn't know him before.
58:18People said that it took Kissinger a long time to come to terms with the fact...
58:28That he doesn't influence anymore.
58:30Well, that he wasn't going back into government.
58:33That for a long time he was organized around going back into government.
58:38And at a certain point he decided to become a...
58:46Decided to have a different kind of role and was sort of happy having that kind of role.
58:57My challenge has been...
58:58I don't know whether you found this.
58:59It sounds from the way you spoke like you found it.
59:03My challenge was relative to the expectations of being a professor or being a government official.
59:14It was fairly easy to make substantial amounts of money.
59:21Not money like Jeffrey and some of his friends.
59:26Money that was like a lot of money from my point of view.
59:30And it's actually not that hard to do things that are reasonably pleasant and kind of interesting.
59:38What is hard is doing things that cause you to have adrenaline.
59:54It probably depends how deep you go.
59:57In my last round in business, you know, I have a friend who was very successful in venture capital.
1:00:05The very beginning of the hype.
1:00:10And he asked me to work with him.
1:00:12And after several months he told a common friend of us that Ehud is not hungry enough.
1:00:20But I feel more hungry now than then.
1:00:23Because then I still thought that I might come back within several years.
1:00:28And now I don't have any problem with not going with finding something that should be fun and very profitable and fun at least some of the time.
1:00:44You know, in my experience even politics was not always fun and even science, you know, before I choose to go to the military career rather than to science, I spent a summer at the Weizmann Institute.
1:00:59Yes, I met yesterday a Nobel Prize laureate in astrophysics that worked together with a member of my class in Israel, also astrophysicists.
1:01:13And he told him that we worked together in the Weizmann Institute.
1:01:19So after this summer he decided to stay in science and I decided that we were working all the summer on photographs from bubble cells, you know, the kind of hydrogen under heavy magnetic fields.
1:01:38The preliminary CERN operation about identifying the kind of behavior of particles.
1:01:46And I've seen we were six labs working all over Europe and Israel on the same one million photographs.
1:01:54And after a year and a half the professors sat down together, decided what to do.
1:02:00Young P.E.G. through the greatest idea and the professors went to the congresses abroad to represent it and so on.
1:02:09And I found the relation between the fascinating work in the last six weeks and the extremely boring looking of a picture after picture to see some abnormality in the behavior of all this bubble chamber.
1:02:25And I decided to go there. So somehow I don't think that any, probably, paintings or sculptures that…
1:02:34So nothing is fun all around.
1:02:38No, the question is whether… the question is finding…
1:02:43Something that leaves…
1:02:44Something that makes a change.
1:02:47Where you feel like it's…
1:02:50It's not just achievement.
1:02:52That there is some meaning.
1:02:53Something which is important to you.
1:02:54Some high meaning which depends on both what the thing is…
1:03:00And how large your, you know, what your role…
1:03:11Yeah, it's about something that goes beyond your body and beyond your time.
1:03:16Something important, really important.
1:03:18It's not complicated.
1:03:20I don't think that there are many things.
1:03:22You are probably at earlier age than all of us.
1:03:25Someone can gamble on some idea and want to build something from scratch that has never been there and changed a certain part of the world.
1:03:36The most we can do is to use our capacity to integrate things, still to make judgments and to make good recommendations,
1:03:46to back up what we say by two or three layers deeper into certain areas where we feel confident.
1:03:56And probably to find a way to join such efforts in a way that creates synergy between several kinds of us.
1:04:03I think that there could be, you know, I spent probably all the day last Saturday or the week before, the week before, in Munich,
1:04:15meeting with only, I don't know, 20 ministers of foreign affairs and heads of state who were invited there.
1:04:27From Georgia, Mongolia, Montenegro, Albania, Zagreb, Estonia.
1:04:37And you see how much these guys, you know, some of them at the very kind of primordial but empiric phases of normalizing a society or state,
1:04:53facing huge challenges and having huge potentials in a way.
1:05:01And they don't know how to, don't feel confident about how to move in economy, how to move in finance, how to move in security,
1:05:10how to move in international relations, how to move in international relations positions and such.
1:05:16I think that working on such projects could be fascinating.
1:05:22Because you see embryonic nations, some of them have been born as nations, they have all the identities.
1:05:34And they look, think that for you is something that's long behind you, is their great next challenge sometimes.
1:05:42And that could be something of importance.
1:05:45I've never been to Montenegro or Mongolia, but I assume if you go to Mongolia, you see this nomadic earth.
1:05:55The most interesting thing I have heard about them participating in gathering by some NGO in Davos about micro-insurance.
1:06:05They want to copy the idea of micro-financing to micro-insurance.
1:06:09And someone told a story that they went with micro-insurance against the weather to Mongolia.
1:06:19And they had to set a way how to calculate.
1:06:24I passed a kind of equal judgment about what to pay, how to create a parameter,
1:06:31because you cannot go to Mongolia to take case by case.
1:06:36So one parameter was the size of the earth that you own.
1:06:41Because they didn't get someone from the locals to work with them.
1:06:46It ended up that they set the counting station at some point in this hilly landscape.
1:06:56And many of the shepherds identified immediately, without knowing anything about what you call it, that that's a parameter.
1:07:04And the earth were moving around.
1:07:06They didn't put a stamp on any...
1:07:10So it's full of...
1:07:14You find it so, so, so deeply backward.
1:07:19That it gives a sense of something that you can do with all that you accumulated.
1:07:27You cannot invent a vaccine against, I know, some remote parasite in Africa.
1:07:35But in sub-Saharan Africa.
1:07:37There are huge opportunities to help them.
1:07:40There are many, many corrupt people.
1:07:43It will take time for probably a generation down the street.
1:07:47They will keep robbing their natural resources by the elites.
1:07:52But they are still moving forward.
1:07:55It cannot be denied when you compare them to 20 or 40 years ago.
1:07:59I think that could be...
1:08:04I think, you see, the two of you, that's why I wanted to...
1:08:07The two areas, I think, these nations, these beginning nation states, whether Mongolia or parts of Africa or even Kazakhstan has a lot of money, but they're not...
1:08:16The sophistication is 20, 10 years back.
1:08:19The cellular service being sort of a prime example of not being burdened with copper in the ground and fiber so you can go right to cellular phone.
1:08:28You have this leapfrog.
1:08:29And I think you're both a little crazy in the fact that in terms of compensation and money, the two hottest areas is...
1:08:38Every country wants to be now in the world of finance.
1:08:41They're not really talking about manufacturing as...
1:08:45If you're a leader, you're talking about food security.
1:08:48You're not talking about a production line.
1:08:50You want to explore natural resources, but you want to exploit your natural resources for an economy.
1:08:56And you want to have two things.
1:08:58You want to have economy, and you want to have money, and security.
1:09:01So that you two are really, I think, in the primaries positions for the current time.
1:09:08I don't know if it lasts more than 5, 10 years.
1:09:11Maybe something else takes over.
1:09:14We're not interested in development more than 70 years.
1:09:17No, but security...
1:09:20I think you need to think about how to break it down. Cybersecurity.
1:09:26I think it's going to be the hot button for the next two years.
1:09:32Border security is less of an issue, and a lot of people can handle it.
1:09:35But the expertise...
1:09:36Social security is something.
1:09:37Because in many of these countries, they don't know even how to approach it.
1:09:41How to approach on a national level issues.
1:09:43Security of a country in the backyard of Europe, like Montenegro, Albania, Estonia, or Latvia.
1:09:53And on the other hand, in a totally different situation, the security of Mongolia or Kazakhstan.
1:10:01They don't even have...
1:10:03They don't know what to do, so they do what they know.
1:10:07They issue bits and take some...
1:10:11They don't build even national security in a proper way.
1:10:15The last guy who comes to them with some impressive ideas and good margins, they fall into the trap.
1:10:26But if you were advising Mongolia on security...
1:10:29See, again, I'm not sure...
1:10:30The general security...
1:10:34What's the first...
1:10:35Step one through five is why?
1:10:36From budget to what to do and what not to do.
1:10:40And how to do it effectively.
1:10:42And what could not be treated by any kind of security, but by diplomacy.
1:10:48And probably even...
1:10:50You know, I met with the Foreign Minister of the National Security Advisor,
1:10:53and they insisted on sending a delegation to Israel for a small country.
1:11:00They are good people, but they are so, so far behind.
1:11:07It's like coming to a seminar at the university about some issue.
1:11:13They have something.
1:11:14They are responsible for the country.
1:11:17But they never thought of how to balance, how to approach this issue.
1:11:24What's worth investing in, what's not worth investing in.
1:11:29How to make the major effort they are doing now with multinationals to balance their approach to mining.
1:11:39How to combine this with security, first of all, the security of the mining fields and the security of the whole area.
1:11:49They are trying to find a way.
1:11:57They are reasonable people, but they are afraid.
1:12:00They are afraid that some of the advice that they are given are motivated by great powers behind those who advise them.
1:12:09The issue of trust.
1:12:10Of course they don't know what to do with the economy.
1:12:15And even what to do with the money they can get.
1:12:18How to use the potential.
1:12:21How to develop what should be taken by the state.
1:12:25How to make the big companies participate in it.
1:12:29How you can leverage them to do it.
1:12:31How to make them...
1:12:33How to keep the edge of being the owner of the whole thing.
1:12:37Beyond the first signature on a document.
1:12:40They are not, you know, it's not simply.
1:12:44You were saying before you came in that there are a lot of...
1:12:50That you think there are a lot of these people who really are very hungry for...
1:12:56You see it, right?
1:13:00That's a hypothesis.
1:13:02I spoke to a friend of mine that became a friend of Jeff as well.
1:13:08A guy who works with Ban Ki-moon.
1:13:13For one dollar peri named Terry Alarsson.
1:13:15He's a Norwegian diplomat.
1:13:16His wife is Norwegian.
1:13:18He had some trouble so he left the public service.
1:13:23His wife remained there.
1:13:25And he travels all around the world on behalf of the...
1:13:29Now I assume for a moment.
1:13:31That you and Jeff and myself and this Terry Alars.
1:13:35Establish a consulting group that takes on the basis of countries, sovereigns.
1:13:42To give them advice.
1:13:45Strategic advice on macro economy, finance, security and international relationship.
1:13:56And these all things for leaders.
1:13:58Even democracy for government.
1:14:01But clearly for more kind of autocratic leaders.
1:14:05They don't really see a difference.
1:14:07Everything touches everything.
1:14:09And if some group that has kind of talked to each other quickly or intelligently.
1:14:20And for some of them, you know, think of Kazakhstan can pay.
1:14:24In fact they are paying.
1:14:26By now they are paying for more than one...
1:14:29In more than one channel.
1:14:30They want a second opinion, a third opinion.
1:14:33And a special opinion on this and that.
1:14:36They pay quite a lot of money.
1:14:38They have this money.
1:14:39For taking consults.
1:14:42Sometimes they see it as not just consulting.
1:14:46All these sovereigns.
1:14:49They think that if they will choose the right people.
1:14:52They get certain edge in nothing.
1:14:55Probably not in lobbying.
1:14:57Not in active lobbying.
1:14:58But in helping them to find a way.
1:15:02Navigating issues that they have with international bodies and with NGOs.
1:15:07And sometimes even to ask those advisors.
1:15:11To find who could be the lobbyist.
1:15:14If they have to pass certain...
1:15:16I remember Nazarbayev came to me 10 years ago.
1:15:19Because he was isolated.
1:15:21He was frightened by some investigation.
1:15:24He was around from the United States, I believe.
1:15:28About some behaviors of his government.
1:15:32Sometimes they need an access to the ECB.
1:15:37To the World Bank.
1:15:41You have to be careful of this.
1:15:45You know, it's a little different.
1:15:47It's probably a little better.
1:15:49They probably need access to America more often than they need access to Israel.
1:15:53Yeah, but they rely more on the advice from Israel than the advice from America.
1:15:58Because Israel's problems are more like their problems.
1:16:00No, because Israel is small enough not to threaten.
1:16:04You know, we are supposed to have good contacts all around the world.
1:16:08You know, when I talk to the Mongolians, they asked me,
1:16:11Can you talk to Putin?
1:16:13Can I talk to him?
1:16:15It's important for them.
1:16:17Because there are certain...
1:16:21And if a Russian...
1:16:24If a Russian would come to them, they would think that he works for Putin.
1:16:28If an American comes, they might find that they find themselves within a bigger gate.
1:16:36We have certain kinds of things of being connected in the world and not threatening anyone.
1:16:40And you have a sense of having been extraordinarily effective given your...
1:16:52I mean, Israel has a sense of having been extraordinarily successful, effective, and strong given its location and its size.
1:17:02And so, you know...
1:17:03And a human capital.
1:17:04I'm not sure whether you have the same human capital in Mongolia, but they know it as well.
1:17:08No, but I think if you're a Mongolian or a Kazakhstan, you know, I'd like to have a generation ahead, like Israel had, which is a natural way to think.
1:17:23Whereas, I'd like to have a generation like the United States. It's different.
1:17:29They're just going to be in a different kind of...
1:17:32No, we are also a source of unique cutting-edge knowledge, Israel, in some issues which are extremely important for them.
1:17:44Water processing and both disseminating reuse of water and even the effectiveness of use of it in agriculture in semi-aroid areas.
1:17:57We have the most sophisticated agriculture on earth.
1:18:01The real point is that all players are Israeli, so they sometimes take, you know, two kilograms of newly manufactured, genetically manufactured seeds,
1:18:12bring them to Cuba or some... Angola or wherever, and within five years we have competitors.
1:18:20So we have to excel in running ahead of the wave in R&D.
1:18:26And we are doing it in agriculture, and you know better than me that there is a need to probably double the food production within a generation or so without...
1:18:38So you are, you and I are going to tell them what seeds they want to use.
1:18:43Yeah, yeah, not, but what the direction could be.
1:18:47Or do they connect them to the people who are going to tell them that.
1:18:49Geoffrey can tell us that there could be certain kind of practical economic benefit from being able to be the one who point to them,
1:19:06genuine, sincere players in certain areas. But you know who are you going to recommend in advance.
1:19:14You can leverage this kind of having the trust of a government.
1:19:23Like be it Montenegro, Latvia, of course the Danish government doesn't need it.
1:19:29But all these governments which are not yet self-confident enough, they feel that they need it.
1:19:36They need experienced people who doesn't...
1:19:40You say it's not India.
1:19:41You say it's not India, but it doesn't...
1:19:42You say it's not India, but it doesn't...
1:19:43Doesn't lose their sleep at night if they hear of major problems in some country, they face that issue.
1:19:49You say it's not India, but it is Mongolia, and maybe it's Sri Lanka, and maybe it's...
1:19:59Maybe we are out of the 194 nations, I can easily think that some 50 needs it and we cannot work in 50 places.
1:20:08And some of them are quite potentially quite rich or with other potentials to create money that enables them to pay for it.
1:20:17And they feel it or realize it.
1:20:19There's no sense for us to go to lost places.
1:20:23Well, anyone who has natural resources has a way of...
1:20:30The natural resources are always under a kind of quasi-state control that's not quite the government.
1:20:38It's not like the government's kind of taking your taxpayers' money and giving it to somebody.
1:20:43It's that the state natural resources, whatever, that's the only way the money comes from.
1:20:50I do not exclude the possibility that in five years' time you will end up with decentralization of decision-making.
1:21:01In both China and India, for different reasons, through different mechanisms,
1:21:06where you might find Chinese cities, not just the provinces but cities,
1:21:17with enough authority and enough resources to hire their advisors to cooperate,
1:21:26they basically think of themselves as, under the idea of centers of excellence,
1:21:32they look and they see we are just 400 Singaporeans.
1:21:36basically the same ethnical background or something, even more advantages, more homogeneous.
1:21:45And if we can copy 400 times Singapore, we are doing success in the world.
1:21:53When you meet with Chinese mails right now, first of all, some of them have a population under control,
1:22:00which are medium-sized, too big, bigger than most of the European countries,
1:22:06like Austria, Switzerland and Denmark together.
1:22:09And they get more. That's part of the way of the Chinese to face the threat of losing control as a result of social...
1:22:26The whole transition bodes ill for them. It's not going to be a smooth way for them.
1:22:35And in order to face the threat to anticipate, they have to find generic solutions,
1:22:42not to keep us through processes that will smooth the heating of the province.
1:22:52And India, for different reasons, they come from another direction,
1:22:56but also you might find that in Indian states, they will get more autonomous capability to take.
1:23:10They have the governor who is supposed to intervene on behalf of Manmohan Singh,
1:23:15but it's only if things get wrong in an explicit way, illegal way, big scandals that come to the surface.
1:23:25So I think there is a lot of work. It could be fascinating because it's really...
1:23:30In a way, it's using what you accumulated all along your life to help real people facing real problems that you are acquainted with.
1:23:40And they don't feel as confident. They draw both emotional kind of confidence.
1:23:50It's a very good thing to do if one can find.
1:23:53I think once you hang out the shingle, they find you. They don't know where to go.
1:24:00I mean, they sort of...
1:24:03Who do I talk to? I said by default they talk to me, but it's by default.
1:24:06They read in the Economies the articles about them in order to try to find a hint about how they...
1:24:12It's wild. Now, you have to be sensitive. There's places like the Congo that have tremendous natural resources,
1:24:22but it's just zero. You have to stay awake. It's impossible. Rwanda, there's African countries.
1:24:28So it's different than Mongolia.
1:24:30I met Kagemi. What's his name? The big basketball player.
1:24:34He looked like a kind of president of Rwanda.
1:24:39And I believe that Tony Blair is giving him...
1:24:45But Kagami, I don't know about Kagami. Kagami is...
1:24:50It feels like if you're the president of Rwanda, you should sometimes be in Rwanda.
1:24:55Judging by how often I meet him, going to one conference or another,
1:25:01He couldn't be spending very much time in Rwanda.
1:25:06Yeah, but it's a way to avoid the stress of being all the time in Rwanda.
1:25:12But it's like Rwanda has gas, but it's in the middle of the lake.
1:25:17But other places in Africa...
1:25:18And what's the lake? Which lake?
1:25:21I don't know. Kagami said there's a gigantic gas field, but just like there's a place in...
1:25:27Well, what's the problem? The Caspians see also in the gas.
1:25:31Because it's inside... Once you can't get it out of the country.
1:25:35Because there's no infrastructure.
1:25:38How do you put it?
1:25:40Well, in Africa, putting in even trains, half the time they steal...
1:25:44You put down the rails, you go to sleep, and the rails are gone because someone took it.
1:25:48Is there any place in Africa that you think has a prospect?
1:25:55I think you think no.
1:25:57I don't know who...
1:26:02South Africa is going to be a major economic power.
1:26:07Yes, but I think...
1:26:10I think the concept is over some 30 years, maybe.
1:26:14But I think there are easier...
1:26:16There's low-hanging fruit, like Kazakhstan.
1:26:19Kazakhstan's a perfect example.
1:26:21There's 80 billion dollars in sovereign wealth.
1:26:24They would like to be part of the Western world.
1:26:27It's the big things to be seen, to have human rights.
1:26:30They want to be part of the financial system.
1:26:35Part of it is that they don't want to be embarrassed.
1:26:39So, when they want to talk to someone, they want to know their discretion and good advice,
1:26:44so they can at least take credit for their decisions.
1:26:47So, those are easier places.
1:26:49So, in Africa, maybe, but very hard work.
1:26:52What about Africa?
1:26:57South America is Venezuela at the moment.
1:27:00You know, Chavez dies in the neck.
1:27:01I had a whole bunch of the oil guys here.
1:27:05Monstrous proven reserves.
1:27:07Lots of things to do.
1:27:10Once Chavez goes, and...
1:27:12The financial system...
1:27:13They devalued their currency last week.
1:27:19They had three exchange rates.
1:27:20Now they only have two exchange rates.
1:27:22But they don't have an economy.
1:27:23They have Dudamel.
1:27:27That's the only thing they have.
1:27:28One of the best conductors on earth.
1:27:31The young Venezuelan.
1:27:32So, I think there's just...
1:27:36There's plenty of places.
1:27:37China is a different thing because there's a...
1:27:40You have a better...
1:27:41You both have a great issue in China because...
1:27:45It gives them face to talk to you or to you.
1:27:50So that they feel...
1:27:51And if you went to see them for a day and you left the country, you never want to stay there.
1:27:55Because if you go and you leave, they can tell all their friends that you came just to see them.
1:28:02What about Azerbaijan?
1:28:10And I remember his father.
1:28:12His father was a communist kind of KGB kind of representative in the place, end of the Communist Party.
1:28:23And now the son took over when the father died.
1:28:26It's a kind of run like a family business.
1:28:29I met their minister of foreign affairs.
1:28:34It ended up that he's not just most preferred colleague, but also the best friend he has in Israel is Avigdor Liberman.
1:28:45Israelis are making a lot of business in Azerbaijan.
1:28:49I think once you set up...
1:28:55People understood that you're really in business, you have to choose which is the right place.
1:29:01You wouldn't be...
1:29:02And you could charge a lot of money.
1:29:04I think there is an opportunity here.
1:29:07And if you don't create a huge overhead.
1:29:10Do not pretend to run operations to secure oil fields or...
1:29:16You point them to companies.
1:29:19There are many in Israel.
1:29:23Some would not like to have an American company running, but something from a smaller country.
1:29:31Well, what have you found most interesting?
1:29:33You've been out now for how long?
1:29:36No, I've been out almost...
1:29:37I've been out two years.
1:29:38I've been out about two years and I would say two most interesting things have been...
1:29:48been on the boards of a couple of high techs...
1:29:50of a high tech startup and involved with the venture capital.
1:29:55You know, you just have a sense that you're sort of seeing people who are creating...
1:30:01Creating something new and they're young and they're vigorous and there's a sense of energy
1:30:09and being an adult, you can add something.
1:30:14And so I've enjoyed being with Hendricks and Horowitz and being on the board of Square.
1:30:23And I've enjoyed...
1:30:25I do a couple hedge...
1:30:26I advise a couple hedge funds.
1:30:28And that's interesting because you sort of hear what the people...
1:30:33You have a sense of what the people in the markets are thinking and are doing.
1:30:40So that has been...
1:30:41So I've enjoyed that as well.
1:30:44And then I do a bunch of sort of speaking and giving things up on a variety of things,
1:30:49which is fine, but is less...
1:30:53Is less sort of exciting and stimulating.
1:31:00Well, you know, if opportunities materialize, I don't think you can quite hang out the shingle.
1:31:08And say country doctor.
1:31:11Has a new meaning now.
1:31:14Access on country.
1:31:16Yeah, but access into country can, in certain countries, create a leverage to make a lot
1:31:23of money for a long time.
1:31:25Sometimes you can just bring together a leading major kind of mining company with a leading
1:31:34place to mine, whatever they look for, and just agree with them on an extremely small,
1:31:41small, small percentage of pro millage or whatever they are doing.
1:31:47But as long as the operation is delivered, you might end up living quiet.
1:31:53It also has its values.
1:31:56But has something in the past two years gotten you excited?
1:32:00And the adrenaline?
1:32:02To work with the young people on...
1:32:04That's kind of exciting.
1:32:05But is there one...
1:32:06Has Square been the most thing?
1:32:08Square's probably been the thing...
1:32:10That you look forward to going out?
1:32:13I look forward to...
1:32:15Yeah, I look forward to going out there, but it's not that I...
1:32:18I really do look forward to when we're going out there and when they call.
1:32:24Like, that's going to be interesting and I'm glad they called.
1:32:28It's not quite that...
1:32:31I'm thinking about it every night before I go...
1:32:36It's not quite at the level of I'm thinking about it every night before I go to sleep.
1:32:40In part because...
1:32:43You know, a lot of what it is is like developing a better technology and all that.
1:32:47It's not what I do.
1:32:49It's one of your edges as well.
1:32:54Part of what they need is someone who is experienced enough to look at it in somewhat...
1:32:59A little bit more detached manner to be able to judge...
1:33:03Or avoid the kind of over-enthusiasm that sometimes blinds them to where they are heading.
1:33:10Or what could be the consequence.
1:33:12That's where you can...
1:33:13Because you have much more...
1:33:17And complicated life experience.
1:33:20Yeah, and I'm able to say...
1:33:22You know, and I'm...
1:33:23I'm able to say this...
1:33:26I'm able to say to anybody...
1:33:28Whatever you think.
1:33:29That doesn't seem quite right.
1:33:31When lots of people spend their lives surrounded by people who will never say to them...
1:33:42That's not quite right.
1:33:45That's not quite right.
1:33:48So I like the things where you're engaged with more young people.
1:33:55And I'm sure in Israel there must be a ton of that.
1:33:58And Israel is a fascinating place.
1:34:05I mean, the eruption of entrepreneurial spirit...
1:34:10Well, it's very typical to find the...
1:34:16Desilums of the...
1:34:19Population coming out of the anforces...
1:34:20Of some of them spending their time in the anforces...
1:34:23in activities which are basically R&D or start-up kind of operations without economic side to it.
1:34:33And they come, they jump energetically and there is a buzz.
1:34:41Are you going to live in Israel or are you going to live in New York?
1:34:45That's a good question.
1:34:47I basically live in Israel but I am extremely fascinated by going out and seeing the world and to be in many places.
1:34:56So I don't feel any kind of problem of spending most of my time out of the country.
1:35:03That's what a fascinating...
1:35:05But you're going to make your home in Tel Aviv rather than in London or in New York.
1:35:12Yeah, you can fly.
1:35:15I don't have a problem if I had to spend a full two months in New York.
1:35:22Take some places in Tel Aviv or Tel Aviv.
1:35:26Or in London or in another place.
1:35:30Before you go, what's your sense of the economy?
1:35:33What do you think is going on now?
1:35:38I think the best guess is that we're turning around the corner.
1:35:47We're turning a bit, I think, as Jeffrey and I were discussing before, I think there's a wall of money coming into the US.
1:36:01The wall of money coming into the wall of money.
1:36:03Just a gigantic amount of money.
1:36:04The wall of money, yeah.
1:36:09Well, I had been...
1:36:11I had been thinking to myself two months ago, the interest rate adjusted for inflation for 10 years is negative.
1:36:24Stocks are pretty cheap.
1:36:26Why isn't anybody in their right mind borrowing money to buy stocks?
1:36:32And now, sure enough...
1:36:34And so there should be a lot of deal activity.
1:36:36And now, sure enough...
1:36:39...in the last month, there's...
1:36:43There's more in public money.
1:36:44Dell is not typical.
1:36:45Some who is doing it himself with some...
1:36:50Dell is not typical, but Heinz is typical.
1:37:11Yeah, and you saw what just happened.
1:37:13I don't think she ever...
1:37:14I don't think she ever...
1:37:15I don't think she...
1:37:16I think she's pretty much out of it, but the...
1:37:19And a Brazilian beer guy...
1:37:24When interest rates are this low, how can you not go into the takeover business?
1:37:28I mean, not me, but...
1:37:30No, and I think it's starting...
1:37:31And I think it's starting to happen.
1:37:33So I think that that, plus the fact that housing is turning, plus the fact that while
1:37:43everybody's hysterical about the dysfunctionality of our government, the truth is we're a pretty
1:37:50dynamic society and our government doesn't usually do insane things, I think it's a reasonably
1:37:57good time to be optimistic about us.
1:37:59I think it's a pretty bad time in Europe.
1:38:08Because in September there is election in Germany.
1:38:11I talked to Schauble and Demesier.
1:38:13Demesier is my colleague, but he was an advisor to the Chassel for a long time.
1:38:16And Schauble, I know him from before he was shot.
1:38:21Before he was shot, he's now in a wheelchair, I still remember him walking on his feet.
1:38:33From both, I got the impression that Germany cannot do anything, politically speaking,
1:38:38they cannot do anything by throwing some short and immediate small pieces to the Spanish
1:38:46or Italian or Greek in order not to break the whole thing before.
1:38:51But then after they can.
1:38:53But after they can, and basically they will, because they are not doing a favor for the
1:39:02It's something that…
1:39:03The people are still getting old.
1:39:06They still don't want to work very hard.
1:39:09And it's not very innovative.
1:39:12I think that Southern Europe is going to become like Southern… Southern Europe to Europe
1:39:19will be like Southern Italy to Italy.
1:39:23Poor, not very competitive, lots of people not working, dependent, but stable.
1:39:34And so I think, I now think the odds that the Euro will, who knows what will happen
1:39:39about Greece, but I think the odds that the Euro will stay together is very, very high.
1:39:46But I think the odds that Europe will be a dynamic place are relatively low.
1:39:55are not very high.
1:39:56It means that ultimately culture matters.
1:39:58The Mediterranean culture is inferior to the kind of Scandinavia, the kind of post-reformation
1:40:08You know, maybe the cultures vary and they work well for 50 year periods and theirs isn't,
1:40:16but I don't know about Japan.
1:40:18I think it's an island full of people getting old.
1:40:27You know, the last thing they invented that was any good was the Walkman.
1:40:30And that was a long, that was a long, that was a long time ago.
1:40:36And so I think that they're probably going to try to pump up and print a lot of money.
1:40:43But is Abe a serious guy?
1:40:47Because last time that he was in power he was not serious.
1:40:53From everything I hear and read, I don't think he is a…
1:40:58I don't think he's a hugely serious guy.
1:41:00All the hedge funds are that the yen's going down and that the Japanese stock market's
1:41:10I have gotten more confidence that the yen's going down over the medium run than I do
1:41:17that the Japanese stock market's going up.
1:41:21I think if there is a…
1:41:25If there's a Paulson trade, you know, like Paulson, the guy who made…
1:41:31Yeah, yeah, Paulson.
1:41:33If there's a trade…
1:41:34The one from the mortgage-backed securities.
1:41:37Right, right, right.
1:41:38Go up and then fell down.
1:41:42If there's a trade like that in the next three years, I think it's short the Japanese
1:41:51Because I think that, you know, maybe they'll recover, in which case they'll stop having
1:41:5810-year bonds at 70 basis points.
1:42:00Maybe they'll have inflation, in which case they'll stop having long bonds at 70 basis
1:42:07Maybe they'll decide that they can't really fix their problems at all, in which case people
1:42:11will start to worry about whether they're going to get repaid, in which case they won't
1:42:16be at 70 basis points.
1:42:18So it seems to me that they're likely…
1:42:21What is 70 basis points?
1:42:22The spread of Japanese bonds…
1:42:26The interest rate is 70 basis points.
1:42:31But it's been that way for a while.
1:42:35It's been very long for a very, very long time.
1:42:37Five years ago, people would have said the same thing.
1:42:40You've just got to be…
1:42:41The widow-makers, what they call the trade.
1:42:44But they already have, for a long time, they have some 200% of the debt store.
1:42:51They keep coming from pouring money into the…
1:42:54So that's why I said that if there is a success, it will be that.
1:42:59And, you know, the last time they were crazy, there were more people who thought their
1:43:06stock market was nuts when it was at 25,000 than there were who thought it was nuts at
1:43:13Because the people…
1:43:14Because by the time it got to 35,000, everybody had taken their crack at thinking that it was
1:43:22And been wiped out.
1:43:24And so they thought they didn't understand and maybe it would keep going.
1:43:27And that's a little bit how the Japanese bond feels to me right now.
1:43:30But tell me, Larry, we're more to worry about inflation as a result of all this supply
1:43:42What's more worrying for you?
1:43:47For the last four years, I've been very confident that it was deflation.
1:43:55As time passes, I move my view.
1:44:00I am still more worried about slowdown than I am about…
1:44:06A big increase in inflation in the United States.
1:44:12Countries don't get big increases in inflation without labor demanding wage increases and tight
1:44:19labor markets and all of that.
1:44:23And I don't see any of that coming in the United States.
1:44:29My friend Stan Fisher did a good job in Israel.
1:44:33According to most kind of observers, he's very popular.
1:44:37He is extremely popular.
1:44:38People believe that he solved it, saved us from major disasters.
1:44:45And he's highly appreciated in the country.
1:44:48But there are, here and there, a few quite important economists…
1:44:54Not economists, but players in the financial markets who think differently.
1:45:00That he did accumulate too much.
1:45:02He did not invest in the right time in gold.
1:45:05That the whole running of the…
1:45:07Because he raised the reserves from some 20 billion to some 80 billion.
1:45:14And they complained that probably he could have done better if he would have invested more
1:45:27Put much more capable people to run this Nostro.
1:45:31It's a huge Nostro to run this money somehow, even without gambling.
1:45:36And some even argue that Anno said that probably he did identify too late that what the Swiss
1:45:53have done with their weight could be done with the Shekel.
1:45:59So for some time he appeared as if he believed that you cannot fight the market when in reality
1:46:05you can fight it on one side.
1:46:07If you are so popular that everyone wants to buy it.
1:46:10So there are certain critics among more sophisticated players but basically the feeling is in flying colors he ends.
1:46:20He's going to live in short time.
1:46:24That was my impression that he had done very good.
1:46:27He had been very sexual.
1:46:29But that's the thing…
1:46:30I like him very much.
1:46:32He's very sincere.
1:46:35He seems slow but kind of in a systematic manner.
1:46:42Avoid kind of gambling.
1:46:44That's very important to our collective character.
1:46:48He said that he is…
1:46:49He said that he is…
1:46:50There's this phrase, a safe pair of hands.
1:46:54A safe pair of hands.
1:46:58He gives very much the feeling of being a safe pair of hands.
1:47:03You know the thing about the…
1:47:07It goes to sort of something what you were talking about.
1:47:11All over the world people have these huge quantities of money that they mostly invest in US treasuries that pay zero.
1:47:27And everybody ought to be investing their stuff more aggressively.
1:47:34But that's the scars from the recent events.
1:47:36People lose their…
1:47:38They lose their self-confidence very easily.
1:47:42And what happened in the crisis of truth.
1:47:45We could not predict this and no one warned us.
1:47:49So probably now it's…
1:48:01That sounds right.
1:48:04I'm going to spend some time with Ehud.
1:48:06I'll see you tomorrow morning at 10.
1:48:08I'm picking you up at 10 in the morning.
1:48:09You're picking me up at 10 in the morning.
1:48:10I will see you then.
1:48:13Ehud, this was very good.
1:48:14It was very good to see you.
1:48:16I hope we'll have a chance.
1:48:17One of these places or…
1:48:21He's only a free man.
1:48:22One of these things.
1:48:27Contemplate setting a departure ceremony.
1:48:30And set a time, a day, and a time.
1:48:33Because I'm afraid that under certain tricky developments, there will be no new government.
1:48:40I will go to another election and that's…
1:48:43Theoretically it's possible.
1:48:45I don't want to find myself stuck.
1:48:49Very nice to see you.
1:51:02You're never going to do something.
1:51:12I appreciate that.
1:52:39Want more tea, sir?
1:52:55More tea, if you can.
1:54:36I like the very mind.
1:54:37But what do you think?
1:54:46He has the appetite to grow…
1:54:50Okay, that's good.
1:54:51I believe he's a very good name.
1:54:52Could be very good.
1:54:54One of the ideas they kind of exchange with the…
1:55:00I think it could be really interesting if we find a way to work together to make probably
1:55:06a pilot on one or two of them.
1:55:12Larry is not liked by any…
1:55:15I said that, you know, you were going to come to dinner.
1:55:18And he said, did you read the article on Foreign Affairs?
1:55:28Did you read the article on Foreign Affairs?
1:55:29And what did he say about it?
1:55:31He said, well, what did you think?
1:55:32I said, I didn't like it very much.
1:55:34He said, I come at it from a different angle.
1:55:37He said, I didn't like it, but I identify because they say everything they say about
1:55:42him, they say about me.
1:55:53I thought we would start earlier, but…
1:55:57I hope you have enough.
1:55:58You have patience.
1:55:59I have patience and I have time.
1:56:00I want to go with you through a variety of opportunities that were kind of proposed, different levels
1:56:13But I find that probably with… I want to hear your advice before I try to focus on
1:56:23order of priority and probably to have your judgment on some of them and what it means.
1:56:29Now, unlike… probably unlike David Lavi, I can find fascinating adrenaline satisfaction
1:56:40in just making money.
1:56:43I already knew that.
1:56:45That I will have the real adrenaline.
1:56:47It's not for making, for spending it.
1:56:50I will spend it cleverly around.
1:56:55I want to start with what I brought you here.
1:57:00I want you here a document of…
1:57:04The German takeovers.
1:57:05A German supposedly sophisticated takeover group that I was one of the founders of and
1:57:15according to the real achievements that they had, according to this record, are those
1:57:22that they have made when I was still there.
1:57:25I don't know what they have done since then.
1:57:27Probably they won some court trial about some deal that they were involved in and they
1:57:37were bypassed at the last moment.
1:57:41Probably the deal had never materialized.
1:57:44It had to be with some sub-unit of Deutsche Telekom that operates here.
1:57:51T-Mobile was taken by ATT, but in a way that was… the way to bypass them was by acting
1:58:00much more aggressively.
1:58:01And by this aggressive action, they raised the attention of the authorities, the regulators
1:58:09And some of it was blocked.
1:58:10But they kind of had still a complaint.
1:58:14Probably they got some 30 million or whatever from this complaint.
1:58:18and they ran themselves the office since then.
1:58:22Probably there are some areas that I don't know of, but basically I see something which
1:58:26reminds me very much what we had in mind six years ago when I left them as I entered the…
1:58:35Read it and try to get… ask me whatever question I know the people I know…
1:58:41Who's the principal?
1:58:44Who's the main person?
1:58:46Originally it was four people.
1:58:50One named Philip Scholler.
1:58:53You will find all the details about him.
1:58:56Who do you like the most?
1:58:57Who do you have the best?
1:58:59I have with the two.
1:59:00We were five people.
1:59:03Philip Scholler, Christoph Bulfon, who's a lawyer.
1:59:08Another entrepreneurial kind of guy, Roberto Hoffmann, and a German origin Canadian guy.
1:59:20And at the moment do they have any money?
1:59:27I will remind you in a moment.
1:59:36And we were basically four of us.
1:59:38We established a German corporation.
1:59:40It registers in the islands, BVI.
1:59:50Basically the idea was the following.
1:59:51There is suppressed value within the DAX, leading companies, from the biggest to the
1:59:56smallest, leading DAX companies, because of three elements.
2:00:04One is the nature of governance of companies in Germany, with these two layers of board, which
2:00:15slows down dramatically and spreads the decision power and capability to take decisions.
2:00:23Secondly, the deep involvement of unions, that they are participants of the board and you
2:00:31can practically not move without them.
2:00:35And then passive shareholders.
2:00:37There is nothing like ICANN or whatever here.
2:00:42Extremely passive.
2:00:44Now, I don't know if it's suppressed.
2:00:48You take any company, take BA7 compared to DuPont or whatever here, similar sized company,
2:00:57you will end up German company with half the market cap.
2:01:06Take any, I don't know, insurance big company, compare it to even to Warren Buffett, which
2:01:16basically ensures companies finance other activities and you will end up much lower.
2:01:23But even if you compare them to any successful North American companies.
2:01:28And do the same in every aspect.
2:01:31And that's, in fact, that's the case.
2:01:36They are much lower now.
2:01:39Now, in order to do something with it, you have to change it.
2:01:45The idea is that you can easily take, by the rules, if you get 10% of the stock of a company,
2:01:52you become practically the owner of the company, you can call a special general assembly of the
2:01:59whole shareholding and you can nominate a director, you can change the nature of it.
2:02:08Usually it doesn't work.
2:02:11If you are German, they look at you in quite a bizarre way.
2:02:18If you are non-German, they will go.
2:02:22So the idea is to establish a German...
2:02:27In this group, you will see, they have a group of people about my age.
2:02:32We are former heads of leading DAX companies.
2:02:35They know the companies from within.
2:02:37They know the people who are there, the relationship and everything.
2:02:42They have a lot of informal, internal information about what happens, including when we...
2:02:49I remember fighting with Volkswagen and with Deutsche Telekom, when we were continuously acquainted with what really happens in any board meeting afterwards.
2:03:04So to establish a Luxembourg or whatever operation for any given project and let's say you typically might need one billion in equity, another one billion in debt to create 10% of a company with a markup of 20 billion and start to operate.
2:03:30So we will need more if it's a bigger company, but usually it's a relatively small market.
2:03:37Think of, I know...
2:03:39I understand all of it.
2:03:41It's a very huge potential of money, like Berkshire Hathaway, but probably making 4 billion per year on 200 billion of assets.
2:03:53So by just making not very good insurers, but a good manager of assets, you can do more.
2:04:02Now, they want to find players or think that together we can find players who are ready and capable after they understand they can be behind this SPV, probably having convertible kind of bonds with SPV.
2:04:19Let me stop you for a second.
2:04:23It's much more important when you initially describe these things.
2:04:29The structure of where and whether SPVs or it's in Luxembourg, BVI, it doesn't mean anything.
2:04:36The only thing you need to focus on now when you're talking about these types of businesses are the numbers.
2:04:45So that the numbers are the numbers are the numbers.
2:04:48Nothing else is going to make a difference.
2:04:50So you need to tell me five things.
2:04:52A, have they performed before and what's their returns?
2:04:57Because structurally it's different.
2:05:00You'll find two examples, which are successful ones.
2:05:03Both of them happened when I was there.
2:05:06And I will add to you something.
2:05:08If you have to ask me whether they are extremely successful till now, my answer is no.
2:05:14Otherwise they are rich people, all of them.
2:05:20What do they want from you?
2:05:21So I want to know the numbers and what do they want from you?
2:05:24So those are my two biggest goals.
2:05:27Numbers you will find.
2:05:31The idea is to take anything from a small DAX company.
2:05:37It could be taken over by putting probably 300 in equity and 300 in debt.
2:05:44You have 600 million.
2:05:46You can take over 600 million.
2:05:48The very big one might need 3.5 billion in debt and 3.5 billion in equity,
2:05:56which enables you to take even diamonds.
2:06:00In fact, the only one who did what GCG has as a vision is Ferdinand Pich,
2:06:10when he took over.
2:06:12He ran ahead of us.
2:06:14We had been here trying to convince several big private equity companies
2:06:20and hedge funds to do exactly what he had done.
2:06:26They were much slower because several generations have already had a stronghold within the company.
2:06:36Probably identified the opportunity.
2:06:38But he extracted clearly a real jump that still holds several years after all.
2:06:44Basically, think what Pich have done with Volkswagen and we will get a sense of what they claim.
2:06:54Whether they did it or not.
2:06:56That's probably the reason why they want me.
2:06:58They want me to be able to somehow help them, to convince somehow for whom these amounts of money are not frightening.
2:07:08If we convince, for example, the sovereign fund of Singapore or the Emirates or China to be with us or even a major Russian group.
2:07:24To be with us, the GCG provides the front in Luxembourg and they are behind it.
2:07:34Because if some sovereign fund will take over a major tax company, it could end up politically.
2:07:39So they want you to go to the sovereign funds?
2:07:43To help them to convince the sovereign fund.
2:07:46Or extremely rich individuals.
2:07:49Like Tom Pritzker, for example.
2:07:51I just wrote down Tom's name.
2:07:53Because I talked to him this morning.
2:07:56Probably a guy that can, if he wants, to take over a major...
2:08:01But what is your real advantage for them?
2:08:05The fact that you know rich people?
2:08:07The fact that you have open access...
2:08:09I can open the door.
2:08:12I cannot be at the core of the community.
2:08:18Actually, you're the door open.
2:08:23And someone that they respect, it gives them certain respect, as you said about the blue...
2:08:29So basically, that's the...
2:08:35And they know me, they trust me, because we work together.
2:08:38I help them to go to Bruce Kovner, and to Leon Black, and to others, and start to see what they are in.
2:08:51For example, they work very hard to convince Russians, and they failed.
2:08:56And I think that probably I can convince.
2:08:58You know, one of the guys that...
2:09:00Think of two of the guys that they get now with BP-10K.
2:09:05Well together, they got some four of them, they got some 28 billion.
2:09:08They have to put it somewhere.
2:09:10You know, the story with Germany is quite clear.
2:09:15It's the best performing operation on the manufacturing flow, and a very slow, not creative, on the top.
2:09:26But look, Germany always trades at a discount to the States.
2:09:29I'm not sure of the comparison of German company valuations and earnings price marks.
2:09:34There's an issue with taxes and unions.
2:09:36You can't fire people there so easily.
2:09:38But my concern is that they want you to open the door.
2:09:46It's not really your expertise.
2:09:52It's your capabilities.
2:09:53I think you can...
2:09:54What they basically say...
2:09:55You're going to make a lot of money.
2:09:59You're going to make a lot of money.
2:10:00You're definitely going to make a lot of money.
2:10:02I'm not going to...
2:10:04You're definitely going to make a lot of...
2:10:05You will make money.
2:10:06The question is how you...
2:10:08Which place you do it with?
2:10:13After we read it, I will show the concrete proposal that they sent to me.
2:10:17They gave an example.
2:10:18They said, we are ready.
2:10:19We are going to get...
2:10:21When we put the money...
2:10:23Assume for a month you succeed in bringing us someone who can put $1 billion on equity for
2:10:34Think, for example, of the China investment company.
2:10:36They run probably $400 billion.
2:10:38They can afford doing it if it's afforded.
2:10:43Assume that we convince them.
2:10:44They say, okay, with the debt it's $2 billion.
2:10:47Out of the $2 billion we got 3%.
2:10:50We are ready to give you $12 million.
2:10:53Out of the $60 million we get immediately.
2:10:55And then smaller amounts down there.
2:11:00So what Tom asked me this morning...
2:11:03And he said he told you at Davos.
2:11:06Was he thought you should make a list of his work.
2:11:14But who has IOUs to you?
2:11:19Out of the people in the past who you think you're close to.
2:11:23He said that he really wanted you to make this list of...
2:11:26This person owes me a favor.
2:11:30This person owes me his life.
2:11:33This person owes me his job.
2:11:36This person owes me...
2:11:39And so you got to work it backwards and say, here is my...
2:11:44But instead of thinking about what the opportunities are first.
2:11:47Because right now you're focused on opportunities.
2:11:50I need you to focus on your...
2:11:53Personal balance sheet in terms of competences.
2:11:59What's your real strengths?
2:12:01What's the liability...
2:12:02One of the liabilities is you're 71 years old so you can't be in a business.
2:12:05It takes 20 years to make money.
2:12:07We have to make money in the next three years.
2:12:11So people, competence, things...
2:12:16I talked to Ian yesterday.
2:12:17I asked him to come.
2:12:19He flew into London for an hour.
2:12:21What was his impression from the...
2:12:27Because he's very connected to Samsung.
2:12:37They pay him three million dollars a year.
2:12:41He has ten companies like that now.
2:12:46So, he said there's this company called Lookout.
2:12:49He said he mentioned it to you.
2:12:54You talked about it.
2:12:56He thinks they'll pay you a couple million dollars to be on the board.
2:12:59That could be good.
2:13:00That could be good.
2:13:02He thought there was two cyber companies.
2:13:12Even though I know Peter...
2:13:14I've never met Peter Thiel.
2:13:16And everybody says he sort of jumps around and acts really strange.
2:13:20Like he's on drugs.
2:13:23He looks under drugs.
2:13:24However, he has a company called Palantir.
2:13:28P-A-L-L-E-N-T-I-E-R.
2:13:32Palantir is Peter Thiel's company.
2:13:36P-A-L-L-E-N-T-I-E-R?
2:13:45How do you write Thiel?
2:13:54So he thought that Peter would put you on the board of Palantir.
2:14:02Peter Thiel is one of the best...
2:14:04I've never met him.
2:14:05He's going to come here next week.
2:14:07Because I wanted to talk to him after I talked to you.
2:14:10He and Andreessen.
2:14:14It's called Andreessen Horowitz.
2:14:17Andreessen Horowitz.
2:14:19They pay Larry a million dollars a year.
2:14:21Just to advise them.
2:14:25A-N-D-R-E-E-S-O-N Andreessen and Horowitz.
2:14:42They're lobbyists?
2:14:44They are the biggest venture capital people in Silicon Valley.
2:14:49Bigger than Sequoia or...
2:14:53Klein of Perkins or...
2:14:55These are the new Klein of Perkins.
2:14:58These are the smart boys.
2:15:04So those two companies right away...
2:15:07I said that we need...
2:15:09In the next three weeks if you're going to leave...
2:15:33Those two right away.
2:15:34Let's go through more through...
2:15:35I need to see the numbers here before I have...
2:15:37So I can be intelligent.
2:15:40What is tempting there?
2:15:43That I know the people.
2:15:46You don't know more than one success on this scale...
2:15:50According to the contract that they proposed to me...
2:15:55Basically much richer than I can now.
2:15:59Getting some 20 or 30 million dollars along several years.
2:16:07That's number one.
2:16:10A Swiss private bank.
2:16:15I'm going to meet with them in Syria.
2:16:25I'm flying tomorrow to Europe.
2:16:27I'm going to meet with them.
2:16:28They basically asked me to...
2:16:36To join something very similar to what...
2:16:40If I understand well...
2:16:51Running certain kinds of international advisory boards...
2:16:55That they don't have now...
2:16:57To help them to push business.
2:17:00They are very clear...
2:17:01What they would like...
2:17:03To help them to approach effectively...
2:17:13They are like many other banks...
2:17:18Want to concentrate on...
2:17:31For some reason...
2:17:34They have quite...
2:17:52I tried to check...
2:17:53I didn't find anything...
2:17:59That they don't want to...
2:18:01Work with Americans...
2:18:06Nobody works with Americans...
2:18:09It doesn't make sense...
2:18:14Know everything...
2:18:19To the customer...
2:18:20It's not easy for us...
2:18:35How big are they now?
2:18:57I don't know exactly...
2:18:59They didn't reach...
2:19:06They don't know...
2:19:07Even how to approach...
2:19:09Because they were...
2:19:10They didn't like...
2:19:11They still feel...
2:19:12That some of the Russians are bad...
2:19:14They shouldn't approach them...
2:19:16Others are good enough...
2:19:20Outside of Russia...
2:19:25Financial world...
2:19:27What's the name...
2:19:28Can you tell me the name...
2:19:34I will tell you...
2:19:38Have they been under investigation...
2:19:43That doesn't sound right...
2:19:45It doesn't sound right...
2:19:48I can't imagine...
2:19:49That there's an institution...
2:19:51That has not been under investigation...
2:19:55It just doesn't sound right...
2:20:00I will recheck it...
2:20:01With them directly...
2:20:08Probably after the meeting...
2:20:10Probably after the meeting...
2:20:16It will be behind me...
2:20:18I will find a way to...
2:20:23They were not under investigation...
2:20:25For something wrong...
2:20:28Authorities approached them...
2:20:30Like they approached...
2:20:31All other big firms...
2:20:35In general terms...
2:20:36Every Swiss bank...
2:20:37Of big size like that...
2:20:38Has been under investigation...
2:20:40So it's a question...
2:20:41If they no longer...
2:20:42The question you need to ask...
2:20:43Did you ever deal with Americans?
2:20:48Dealt with Americans in the past...
2:20:50They're under investigation...
2:20:51Everybody who's touched an American...
2:20:53Is under investigation...
2:20:55So they might not be now...
2:20:58What normally happened...
2:20:59Like there's a bank called Weglen...
2:21:04They were the big ones...
2:21:09If you had an American...
2:21:12They told all the Americans...
2:21:13You must take your account out...
2:21:17All the Swiss banks...
2:21:19We're no longer allowed...
2:21:20To have American clients...
2:21:25The government says...
2:21:29Who had accounts at your bank...
2:21:32They have not paid their taxes...
2:21:35And we want their names...
2:21:36So there's been a big fight...
2:21:41Under Swiss law...
2:21:42We can't give you the names...
2:21:44We can give it to the Swiss government...
2:21:45And the Swiss government...
2:21:47Is going to yield to the Americans...
2:21:49And the order to give...
2:21:54I believe that Lombard...
2:22:01Under certain investigations...
2:22:05But Credit Suisse...
2:22:08Also had been under...
2:22:10And the Wegland...
2:22:14The worst so far...
2:22:18Under investigation...
2:22:20They pled guilty...
2:22:22They already were charged...
2:22:32Under investigation...
2:22:36Everyone's under investigation...
2:22:37Some have been charged...
2:22:39It's how abusive...
2:22:41What happens is this...
2:22:42You're under investigation...
2:22:44Congratulations...
2:22:45You're under investigation...
2:22:46You cooperate with me...
2:22:48We won't bother you...
2:22:49You want to tell me to...
2:22:52I will indict you in New York...
2:22:55If we indict you in New York...
2:22:57You're not allowed to...
2:22:58Do business with American banks...
2:23:00Anywhere in the world...
2:23:01So you're out of business...
2:23:04You either give us what we want...
2:23:07If you are not cooperating...
2:23:17And then automatically...
2:23:21You have a problem...
2:23:23Weglund gave up...
2:23:24Paid a fine of 75 million...
2:23:31UBS paid 750 million...
2:23:44The different trade...
2:23:45Different trade...
2:23:49I'm gonna pay 75 million...
2:23:51Give you the names of every American...
2:23:53Who had an account...
2:23:58That sets the tone moving forward...
2:24:00If the bank has given up American names...
2:24:03People are a little more hesitant...
2:24:08It's like Mubarak...
2:24:11Through the last...
2:24:12Anybody who came to you the last time...
2:24:14Maybe it's my country...
2:24:15It's Russia who wants to know...
2:24:19Are they private accounts?
2:24:20Are they secret accounts?
2:24:23You need to know...
2:24:25Swiss banking system seems to be...
2:24:27Fully protected...
2:24:28Their clients know it somehow...
2:24:31Trust that it's easier than in other places...
2:24:35It's not places like...
2:24:38The nice part about Switzerland...
2:24:43If you have a hundred million dollars...
2:24:45And you have it in Switzerland...
2:24:47You don't want a return...
2:24:50You don't care if your money makes money...
2:24:52You don't care if it doesn't make money...
2:25:01You have it there for safety...
2:25:05So it's very easy...
2:25:06But they are somehow...
2:25:07Taking some of the money...
2:25:13And they let you get very little...
2:25:19If they make two percent...
2:25:20They take two percent...
2:25:22They take two percent...
2:25:23Give you half percent...
2:25:26What you really bought...
2:25:29But if that's the case...
2:25:30It might not be extremely complicated...
2:25:32To help them to...
2:25:35Unless they are under...
2:25:37Such an investigation...
2:25:38And that could be...
2:25:42Why should they be...
2:25:43On the wrong side...
2:25:44If they understand...
2:25:45What you have said...
2:25:49It doesn't have...
2:28:22They want me, basically. They seem to be interested.
2:28:30We never reached a point where they will tell me,
2:28:36OK, we want to send you an offer. They know that I'm going to leave only several weeks.
2:28:41But probably after this meeting in Switzerland,
2:28:48they might send me a certain paper proposing it.
2:28:54I don't know what they have in mind in terms of compensation.
2:28:58I don't want, no, I assume that they will find a way to give me a certain amount as a kind of basis.
2:29:05Certain coverage of expenses could be quite high
2:29:11because they have to satisfy, in order to meet with their possible clients,
2:29:17to spend some time, I know, in Sardinia or in the Gestaat or in the Punda Leicester or whatever.
2:29:27Did you talk numbers at all?
2:29:31And probably certain element of performance or results based bonus or compensation.
2:29:45Probably stretch over time. I see that there is basically, I didn't talk to them about it, but...
2:29:51And who are you speaking, I mean, are you speaking to the president or the owner?
2:29:55I know, no. 12 years later,
2:30:00I spoke with their . They came to my house, they kind of just to our place in Tel Aviv,
2:30:08ask to meet with me.
2:30:11One of the probably number three the organization together with one of the, probably the then CEO.
2:30:22Later on I met with the CEO and he spent 45 minutes with me for the first time.
2:30:37I know indirectly that he was quite impressed and he made up his mind that he wants to see
2:30:46And he asked me to meet with them and to visit with them and to meet.
2:30:58I assume that he will cover some issues.
2:31:01Probably it will come to a point where I will tell him, okay, if you are interested, send
2:31:08I don't know how to continue from here.
2:31:12And I would appreciate if you give me some of your assessments or knowledge about how
2:31:19much they might propose.
2:31:22How much I might ask for what could be something which is not…
2:31:31Outrageous, kind of trying to use me, so I don't know.
2:31:36They basically seemed to respect me for this, their initiative is how they came to me.
2:31:41Do you want to get an offer while you're still in the government or you'd rather wait
2:31:45until you get out?
2:31:47I prefer to tell them to send me an offer after the 14th.
2:31:51That's what I'm saying.
2:31:52I don't want something to be on record before.
2:31:53That's what I'm saying.
2:31:55Later on, in regard to security, there was also some quite important layer in this arena
2:32:04that approached me and they wanted to see tomorrow to bring the founder, the president, whatever,
2:32:11and to sit down and start to work on lists of whatever agencies or states that I will start
2:32:20to talk to as part of their proposal to establish some operations outside this company.
2:32:29Where is that company from?
2:32:31It's one of the, once again, they also, I will tell you their name probably in a few days.
2:32:38They are one of the leaders of service providers in the Internet.
2:32:45And they need to, they feel that they can use their security.
2:32:49And they access and their control of the movement of material in the Internet, the cloud enables
2:33:01them to create, it gives them a huge leverage.
2:33:04And they are in quite good relationship here, but they think that I can help them to develop
2:33:10the same kind of relationship with many other countries.
2:33:15Because they can find or identify the cyber attacks or deployment for attacks much earlier
2:33:22than the firewalls or those who are looking just around the machines themselves.
2:33:28Now, do you, my understanding…
2:33:31I mentioned it because, only because…
2:33:35I mentioned it just because, just to tell you that I deliberately delayed them at certain
2:33:42price, because they want to, to… they also came to me.
2:33:50I knew the name, but I didn't know what they were doing.
2:33:54They came to me, they asked to meet with me.
2:33:57I didn't yet see the number one person, I see the president, I didn't see the CEO.
2:34:04The guy who wants it.
2:34:07But it seems that they are interested.
2:34:09And I delayed them too.
2:34:11I told them I cannot do it, it's not proper.
2:34:13Too many people in the room, who ended up that I started making business when I was
2:34:18still Minister of Defense.
2:34:20Especially in outer security.
2:34:21But I go back to that.
2:34:23I don't want a proposal before I end.
2:34:25But I want to draw from you certain feelings.
2:34:31What could be reasonable for them and whether they might ask me to be exclusive?
2:34:36Does it make sense if America is not part of it, so why should they have any…
2:34:42For the next month, it's the same attitude, which is look.
2:34:46I came here, I wanted to listen to what you have to offer.
2:34:54I am very fortunate because…
2:34:58I am going to make a decision by April, where I will devote my time.
2:35:05I am not going to make a decision before April 1st.
2:35:11When is your last day?
2:35:13Last day is 14th of March.
2:35:18Is it possible he doesn't succeed?
2:35:23It has no precedent, but it can happen.
2:35:26Theoretically it can happen.
2:35:30Then I am going to lose a quarter of a million dollars just for the first six weeks by having
2:35:37to cancel certain lectures that I already committed myself.
2:35:44I consider even to retire, to check myself, to resign on the 14th.
2:35:57But it won't be read properly in Israel.
2:36:00People immediately will identify, they will find where I met them.
2:36:04The only thing I can say, okay, I planned it in advance, I cannot…
2:36:08People will say, ah, what will happen if two days afterwards Syria will collapse,
2:36:13there is no experience.
2:36:15And what is the truth there?
2:36:21What happens in Syria, Syria is going to collapse, I don't know where they went.
2:36:26No, but what happens if Syria…
2:36:29I guess America is not going to go after Iran soon.
2:36:36But if something happens that is dramatic, if Hezbollah does something goofy…
2:36:43Who else is going to…
2:36:45Here is one of my issues.
2:36:47Even though you are disliked as a politician, if Israel has a military something or other…
2:36:57Who is going to do it besides you?
2:37:00Once there is a defense minister, he will do it.
2:37:03Probably short of perfect, but he will do it with the government.
2:37:06He is not alone with the armed forces.
2:37:08I worry only about the technical situation that might be created.
2:37:14I hope it won't, if nothing happens.
2:37:19And then there is another round, and if the other round fails as well,
2:37:23after another round, probably the mid of April, another round is failing.
2:37:29So within 90 days, namely May, June, July, and beginning of July, there will be another election.
2:37:36After which there is another…
2:37:39It can end up the whole summit.
2:37:41So I don't want to be stuck there.
2:37:44I prefer to impose upon Bibi to nominate someone else in the 40s, even if temporarily.
2:37:53And just say, okay…
2:37:55Because it's important that the first offer be high.
2:38:01So let's assume they say $3 million a year.
2:38:04Tony gets $5 million from JP Morgan.
2:38:07Yeah, but JP Morgan is a much bigger operation, one of the biggest…
2:38:11So we know it's not going to be more than five.
2:38:15So the number is going to be between one and four.
2:38:18Between one and four.
2:38:19One and four, yeah.
2:38:20That's the real number.
2:38:22So if they believe you have lots of other alternatives, I think they'll offer you one
2:38:26and a half to two to start off with.
2:38:30And we'll negotiate, right, we're going to say, it's not, I can't.
2:38:34I thought you were serious.
2:38:37I thought you were a serious player if a million and a half dollars, I can make that
2:38:42in five speeches for five days a year.
2:38:46Now, in real life though, once we really know, because you can't have yourself involved
2:38:52in a bank that does funny things.
2:38:57I don't think that's okay.
2:38:59I don't know, but you don't know.
2:39:00Yeah, I don't know.
2:39:01I don't care what you think.
2:39:03It's interesting, but we need to know that, you know, you can't…
2:39:06How can I know and how can I present this?
2:39:09You know, the very question raises doubts about their position.
2:39:15Well, once you tell me the name, we can have some sense, you know.
2:39:18Who are their big clients?
2:39:19Are their big clients Africans, Russians, South Americans?
2:39:27There are many Europeans.
2:39:28You know, the Italians have a problem.
2:39:31They told me, quite frankly, that they hesitated to enter Russia because of reputational issues.
2:39:40And that they are not almost…
2:39:44They are relatively weak in Latin America.
2:39:47They seem to have to go there or Latin America and Central America.
2:39:51And they don't even know how to start to think about China.
2:39:57And they see that it's a rising power of wealth.
2:40:01Do they have any other branches?
2:40:02Any other countries?
2:40:04There are probably hundreds of people working here.
2:40:07But do they have other branches?
2:40:09Like a real business in Singapore?
2:40:12Do they have a bank in Singapore?
2:40:14Do they have a bank?
2:40:16I don't think that they have banks in the normal sense.
2:40:20I need to know more.
2:40:21I don't think that they are running retail for sure they don't have.
2:40:36I never see them on the kind of under signing operations.
2:40:43So probably they are doing it privately behind them.
2:40:47So instead of talking theory, when you are free to tell me the details, I can give you
2:40:52real information about them.
2:40:55So probably it will happen mid-next week, probably Wednesday.
2:41:00And the security company went?
2:41:05Oh, they won't talk to you before that?
2:41:09No, they talked to me.
2:41:11I met with their president.
2:41:14And they sent a guy who is associated with them in Israel to talk to me.
2:41:20And they came indirectly.
2:41:21They came to me and asked for a meeting now here or in their headquarters.
2:41:32It's an American company.
2:41:35So it's a, they also, but I, you know, I cannot, they also, they didn't mention numbers.
2:41:45But from what I know, to be a member of the board of American company could be, I don't
2:41:50know, half a million dollars a year or so.
2:41:52Probably 300,000, probably half a million, depends on it.
2:41:56And, okay, if they do it just to get it, they probably will ask, you know, according to
2:42:02what they raised for this meeting, they are very extremely practical people.
2:42:07They want me to help them because they believe.
2:42:11That outside of this continent, in this continent they are quite well connected.
2:42:15But once again, I noticed that they raised their eyeballs when they learn whom I know
2:42:23personally here from the people they are fighting to convince the hierarchy underneath
2:42:30Is it a public company?
2:42:36But they don't have this kind of access to Germany.
2:42:43But publicly traded companies are easier because most of the information is available.
2:42:48So we know what the board, we can find out what all the board members make.
2:42:52I don't think that they want me on the board.
2:42:54I think that probably they won't.
2:42:56They even left, they told the Israeli guy, left the open, ask Barak what he would like,
2:43:03they want to be member or head of an international advisory board or advisor to us, consultant,
2:43:10But we know exactly what we want from him.
2:43:14We want him to help us with his authority and security and whatever.
2:43:20We have quite advanced intelligence community.
2:43:25They know whatever they need about me.
2:43:30And we believe that if we arrange a list of countries that you can approach on top levels.
2:43:37Do they know your last name was to be Braag?
2:43:44But they expect me to create a list of their working schedule to bring the people to start
2:43:54to convince other people to…
2:43:56But those things again are easy because in fact if we know what you're selling and how
2:44:01much your work, what you're selling is worth…
2:44:03Yeah, and here once again I think that the real story is how, what kind of model could
2:44:08be shaped that will compensate me a long time, the kind of perpetuity, whatever, in regard
2:44:16to contracts that I have, we set targets that are exclusive in the sense that I would
2:44:23approach them and if something goes up from me I would be…
2:44:30That's the second story.
2:44:33Now there is a third one that I will share with you because it comes together with something
2:44:43that I owe you kind of.
2:44:47I approached an American CEO, it's originally German, Klaus Steinfeld.
2:44:57He's the head of a company called Alcoa now, Aluminium, the biggest public company.
2:45:06I know him from the time that he was here heading of Siemens America.
2:45:16Under Heinrich von Pirer who was a friend of mine, head of Siemens.
2:45:21And Dr. von Pirer asked me a favor that I will go meet with this young person and we'll
2:45:31give him my impression of the guy because he wants to consider whether he can jump him
2:45:37over the heads of everyone on the board and put him as his replacement for the scandal.
2:45:46And I came here and I was quite impressed by the guy and I had several meetings with the
2:45:51rest of the board members, I saw them as well.
2:45:54And I told him I think it could be good and he did it, he took him and jumped.
2:46:01And I'm still wondering, I'm not sure that Klaus knows all the stories, but probably later
2:46:06on he became acquainted with it somehow through Dr. von Pirer himself.
2:46:14But I met with him several times in business gatherings when I was in private life and we
2:46:20even tried to start some initiative in Moscow, some parking system that Siemens would be the
2:46:26prime contractor, create a relationship with Lutschkov and Yelena Baturina and all the
2:46:37And I asked him to send him something similar there.
2:46:42We met, he brought his number two kind of operational assistant, a guy who once worked in the White House
2:46:54later on with one of the consulting groups of the former NSC.
2:47:01And they also said, basically, tell us what you want.
2:47:10Okay, we like you, I owe you, but he said, I like Barak very much, he's a great person.
2:47:20Tell me what way you want to be involved.
2:47:23Probably once again it might end up with certain kind of prevalent thousands that he can decide
2:47:29to pay if I give them, you know, whatever, consultancy about protecting their minds around the world.
2:47:37But that doesn't make a lot of money unless I can find some way once again to bring together achievements
2:47:46that I can help them to do, either in upstream or downstream.
2:47:50But they will know more about what you can do for them than you can guess.
2:47:57So you need to, that's what I'm saying, you need to have them say, look, it's the same thing.
2:48:02I don't have that much time.
2:48:07I have five years of being active.
2:48:10I can travel around for five years active.
2:48:12I'm going to have to make a decision about how I spend my time.
2:48:19If you think I'm going to be an asset, if you think I'm an asset for you, you should send
2:48:25me a proposal, but it should be, I need to receive it by March 20th, between the 14th
2:48:30and the 20th, because by April 1st I'm going to make decisions.
2:48:39They know how much you're worth to them.
2:48:43But the more you say, well, you can't ask, will you pay my expenses?
2:48:49Just send me a proposal.
2:48:51Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th, and by April 1st I'll give you an answer.
2:49:00Because the offer will come in higher than you think because of that.
2:49:05I like the security company more than I like the bank.
2:49:22The security company you can't get in trouble.
2:49:31Let's continue and then we'll compare all these.
2:49:46Yes, March 14th and the 20th.
2:49:51As if you're giving them an order.
2:49:54March 31st and on April 1st, 9th.
2:50:02You want an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
2:50:07Send me an offer between the 14th and the 20th.
2:50:13You negotiate with me already.
2:50:16And on April 1st I will give you an answer.
2:50:21Actually send me an offer however a kind of, no, don't mention however detailed, nothing.
2:50:32Just send me an offer.
2:50:35And you said basically in the bank they give, they might propose something between 1 and
2:50:45And probably some mechanism or bonus.
2:50:48Will they ask for exclusivity?
2:50:50They can't basically.
2:50:52Because they are not dealing with North America.
2:50:54And basically even if they would ask for...
2:50:55They might ask for a bank exclusivity.
2:50:57I could easily explain to them that some other activities might create synergies.
2:51:17It's better not...
2:51:23I can't do an exclusive.
2:51:25Don't defend yourself.
2:51:28Don't explain yourself.
2:51:38I can give them...
2:51:39Give them less than more.
2:51:44Would you consider exclusivity?
2:51:50You need to be seen...
2:51:51So especially the military...
2:51:55I couldn't imagine.
2:51:56Let me continue...
2:52:00I was approached by a guy, a friend of mine or a soldier of mine, in a unit who runs
2:52:13also It's not a small site kind of real estate businessman here New Jersey owning
2:52:22some kind of parking operations here.
2:52:27But he is well connected, up to Biden, you know, the people who are interested in politics and so on.
2:52:35He came to me and said the following.
2:52:40I feel very strongly that small funds, probably between 3 to 8 or 9 billion dollars in size,
2:52:56will be extremely interested, not the big ones who have their own foreign ministries, but the small ones,
2:53:05would be interested in having you, just because of your name, something very similar to what you told me about Blue Mountain.
2:53:15And it seems that without even checking with them, he told me I know one or two of those guys
2:53:23that easily want to pay you one million dollars just to use your name or two million dollars to tell you that you are one of them.
2:53:32And it works for them because otherwise no one thinks.
2:53:36He mentioned one name.
2:53:38Are you going to tell me that name or you're not going to tell me that name either?
2:53:41No, no. Jimmy Walker.
2:53:43But the name sounds to me something bad because that was a guy that once, I met him several years ago here,
2:53:52and he was somehow dealing with running money for the Assad family or something like this.
2:54:02Yeah. Jimmy Walker, probably the name.
2:54:09I will tell you the rest of the names as well, long before the March 14th, let's say.
2:54:36I don't know even the name of the fund. Probably I will know the name tomorrow.
2:54:48The hedge fund is here?
2:54:50It's not hedge fund, it's probably private equity.
2:54:54So you think it's private equity?
2:54:58But the name is Jimmy Walker.
2:55:01You can't find too many Jimmy Walker.
2:55:04I might be able to tell you tomorrow.
2:55:13I have more details about this.
2:55:16Probably there are others, I don't know what he has in mind.
2:55:18I'm going to meet this guy.
2:55:24Relatively young man.
2:55:36Was he a Washington firm?
2:55:39Either Washington or New York.
2:55:48Wealth Management, yeah, probably.
2:56:04No, that one is too old.
2:56:07There is too, so many kids.
2:56:09How old is he might be?
2:56:11He can marry in 67.
2:56:32Why don't you give me the real...
2:56:36I will tell you tomorrow...
2:56:40Tomorrow by noontime I will call you and tell you.
2:56:46I'm going to meet with this guy.
2:56:50But think of it once again.
2:56:53Is it Golden City?
2:57:08Too many black people named Jimmy Walker.
2:57:40Tomorrow you tell me.
2:57:43Now, the other idea is what Terry has raised.
2:57:52Can you tell me in one word what you think about?
2:57:55The idea that we will establish certain operation, probably together, probably with him and with me and with Terry.
2:58:07I don't know whether you are leaders or kind of want to...
2:58:10Probably you are behind the scenes.
2:58:13Do you think they did something viable or basically it will take years to develop the reputation or whatever?
2:58:26Because I remember Kissinger.
2:58:27You mentioned Kissinger.
2:58:28Kissinger once told me that he took to him, that he took him probably one half years to make the first one million.
2:58:44He told me, you know, I once told you that you wanted to consult probably Westinghouse or OGE for making two banks for...
2:58:53No, because what did he...
2:58:55That's what I said to...
2:58:56That was why I said Kissinger was policy.
2:59:02So what does that mean?
2:59:03It means everything and nothing.
2:59:07It's too long because nobody knows what it is.
2:59:10In your case and in his case, it's security...
2:59:17It's a totally different deal.
2:59:19Yeah, no, I think...
2:59:24So you think it's viable.
2:59:26So probably we'll have to sit without asking you to send, be an offer to send, to sit down
2:59:31together with Teria first, later on with...
2:59:35Are you going to see him, or you're not going to see him tomorrow?
2:59:39He'll be here tomorrow.
2:59:42I'm leaving in the morning.
2:59:43He'll be in New York tomorrow, Teria.
2:59:45He's coming in at three o'clock, I think.
2:59:50I see him Monday night.
2:59:55I'm going to see Larry tomorrow.
2:59:56I'm taking Larry to Florida.
3:00:00I think the following.
3:00:01Start to think it over with Teria.
3:00:05What could be the structure?
3:00:06What could be the idea?
3:00:07What could be the kind of services?
3:00:09The business model.
3:00:10How do we make money out of it?
3:00:11Should it be a contract with the government?
3:00:12Yeah, kind of advice.
3:00:13That's also something that I've heard from you or from Teria, I believe.
3:00:15That Tony Blair, for example, is doing probably 11 million per year from the Kazakhstan government
3:00:22just to give them advice to help them with lobbying and some NGOs and UN organizations.
3:00:40Tony has turned funny.
3:00:45I don't know what Tony is doing for money.
3:00:47And I don't know if the money Tony is getting is actually to Tony or to somebody else.
3:00:56Because it goes to Tony because they need help so Tony gets to pay some of the money to
3:01:02Because I hear gigantic numbers giving to Tony.
3:01:04Five million here, ten million here, five million there.
3:01:07Tony's not making thirty million dollars a year.
3:01:09Yeah, but it became quite, I can't judge from the style of his watches.
3:01:16Yes, but he's making ten million a year.
3:01:19Yeah, but probably he gets the money and he leaves some of it with others.
3:01:24Probably some of the providers.
3:01:26But again, see Tony is much more, you have for the moment, and that's, one of the things
3:01:34is we have to do it fast.
3:01:37Yeah, because it fades away very fast.
3:01:41Yeah, I will not have an opportunity to say, to talk this way to...
3:01:46...the fans, but once.
3:01:50I fully understand the opportunity.
3:01:52Okay, but this one is also something that we have to discuss, because we can do it beyond
3:01:59anything else, and it can end up being both the advice for them, and probably part of
3:02:04the model is the capacity to provide opportunity to some, think of some, we are advising some
3:02:15country, which have kind of bauxite, and we get the...
3:02:22Don't worry about that.
3:02:23Don't worry about that.
3:02:24So, just think about...
3:02:25Opportunity to propose to a client...
3:02:29...the kind of aluminum field.
3:02:31Look, Ian Osborne is 29 years old.
3:02:36So, Samsung pays him...
3:02:37He has 10 clients paying him 3 million, and he does investments more.
3:02:42So, one example, Samsung...
3:02:44He found their fees for investment?
3:02:50Because he's internet.
3:02:52They said, we're going to give you 100 million, finest internet companies to buy, and you get
3:02:5830% of the profit.
3:03:02That's separate from his 3 million a year.
3:03:04And he doesn't know anything...
3:03:06This is brand new for him.
3:03:08And he doesn't have your stature.
3:03:09So, that's the concept.
3:03:10It's 3 million a year, and if you find investment...
3:03:12Yeah, but he's something...
3:03:14I've noticed that he's socialite.
3:03:17He's a kind of man who entertains himself, entertains people around, enjoy.
3:03:22He genuinely enjoys being in a continuous party with people, and work, you know.
3:03:31He's, in a way, a workaholic of social relationship where I'm a little bit more like Obama.
3:03:38If I had to choose, I prefer to sit alone in a room rather than to intervene.
3:03:46I cannot argue that it's a fault of mind to entertain people.
3:03:51I can be serious with them, I can...
3:03:54That's why, since you're not an entertainer, you can't explain yourself.
3:03:59You seem to be military, and you need to keep that in mind.
3:04:04You don't want to be what they want.
3:04:07You need to be what they think of you.
3:04:10They think of you as military.
3:04:11It has to be crisp, clear, and precise.
3:04:15I'll come back to Arian Osborne.
3:04:19So, start to think about it.
3:04:22I think that it's a good idea.
3:04:25Pritzker asked me the same.
3:04:27Try to make a metric.
3:04:30What are your areas where you have certain genuine...
3:04:35Do you have any...
3:04:37Can you help him in Iraq?
3:04:42Probably within the Kurdish area, yes.
3:04:46But the Iraqi government, I don't believe.
3:04:52I can do it in direct.
3:04:54For example, I met yesterday David Petreros.
3:04:59I'm one of the only ones who...
3:05:02Keep kind of respecting him in public.
3:05:07I met him with his wife, Holly.
3:05:10In a gathering that...
3:05:13Katie Reynolds arranged some...
3:05:16For me on the roof of the...
3:05:20And he stood up to congratulate him.
3:05:27I was quite impressed.
3:05:28I didn't know how to respond.
3:05:30But we talked a little bit.
3:05:33He is one of the most respected people.
3:05:36Clearly have connections in Iraq.
3:05:41I can create a contact with him.
3:05:44Tom already knows him pretty well.
3:05:47Tom thinks he's...
3:05:48He doesn't need me.
3:05:49But he also thinks he's potentially toxic.
3:05:52Probably, in terms of his background.
3:05:57I can easily find...
3:05:58What's he going to do, Petreros?
3:06:00I believe he's looking for opportunities in private equity.
3:06:05Probably to join hands with one of the players.
3:06:10Private equity helps him take some money.
3:06:16The commander of the Balkans that...
3:06:27Rept himself with a flag.
3:06:31What's Panetta going to do?
3:06:39He told me I'm going to invite you for...
3:06:41To give a speech, not for free, in the Panetta Foundation.
3:06:48But we contemplated establishing an operation
3:06:53where Jeremy Basha was the aide.
3:07:05Will be our office and sensors.
3:07:10And they will bring ideas where...
3:07:14Either one of us can do something.
3:07:18We do it to get established some kind of...
3:07:22I like him very much.
3:07:25We can work together very well.
3:07:26That could be interesting as well.
3:07:32Teach you a chord.
3:07:33And he plays the piano.
3:07:39Even Panetta, you and him...
3:07:41Could be better than with...
3:07:42You can raise it with Panetta.
3:07:49That's a strong deal.
3:07:55He feels quite satisfied.
3:08:00He told me I probably will do some boards and...
3:08:05He is kind of guy I believe that he is...
3:08:07About my age probably a year older or younger.
3:08:11So he probably might think that he is...
3:08:14It's great to live in Carmel or Monterrey.
3:08:17At a farm or whatever.
3:08:23The way that he raised it...
3:08:24Signaled to me that he preferred that some...
3:08:28Younger guys will do most of their job for us.
3:08:34Step in when it's...
3:08:36Becomes absolutely necessary...
3:08:38To make sure that something is closed.
3:08:47The chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
3:08:53Dempsey is still in service.
3:08:54But I can, for example, take Malin.
3:08:57Malin, he might know...
3:09:02McChrystal is also...
3:09:03Could be toxic in a way.
3:09:05Or in a different way.
3:09:08But who do you have the best relationship with?
3:09:13Among the security...
3:09:15People in America.
3:09:18I know Gates for a longer time, but he's a kind of...
3:09:25I visited him when we were both in...
3:09:27He headed some university somewhere in a remote place in...
3:09:32A&M University in...
3:09:33If Iran goes nuclear sometime in the next three years, how much do you think...
3:09:47You at one point had suggested that it would...
3:09:53Everybody looks up to somebody above them, but in the case of you and Bibi, there was nobody
3:09:58We have to look in the mirror.
3:09:59Only there's someone there that we cannot...
3:10:02He's not answering the phone.
3:10:05Will it be seen, do you think, that you guys didn't do what you were supposed to do?
3:10:15Depends on many...
3:10:17Quite probably, you know, the same people who were ready to lie on the road to block us
3:10:24We'll ask, why the hell didn't you overcome all your or our reputation?
3:10:30You can expect anything, but...
3:10:35I don't think so, because basically we never pretended that you can destroy it fully at one stroke.
3:10:43So the counterargument could always be, okay, we could delay them by two and a half years
3:10:48or three years or whatever.
3:10:51And you cannot know for sure how long...
3:10:54We have now more, more...
3:10:56No, what I want to know is, what's your risk?
3:11:00I'm trying to think about...
3:11:02That's where I'm going.
3:11:03You know, are you doing something...
3:11:05I'm not going to be blamed for the fact that it's probably more the president.
3:11:13So, with Pritzker, he asked me to try to...
3:11:17Vertically, horizontally...
3:11:19Tom uses the phrase, I owe yous.
3:11:23So, who owes you a favor?
3:11:26Who owes you something?
3:11:27That's what he said to me ten times already.
3:11:32So, an example is a class time.
3:11:34But there is no way to prove it or to really leverage it.
3:11:39It's about a certain sentiment in the mind of someone, rather than a compelling need
3:11:47When I left Prime Minister, the role of Prime Minister, Nazarbayev felt this way toward me.
3:11:54Because in several international gatherings, I praised him and he knew that I talked to Clinton
3:12:01and told him it doesn't make sense to behave with him.
3:12:05He cannot jump immediately into the Maryland standards.
3:12:10And even the Maryland standards were not that perfect.
3:12:13Quite recently, let's say.
3:12:14And, you know, so he felt this way.
3:12:21And once I used it, I went there some seven years ago, brought with me an Israeli billionaire
3:12:28with a Kazakh billionaire and they waited until they were there.
3:12:34And he asked, what do you want?
3:12:35And they described some big operation to take gas and oil from Turkmenistan across their
3:12:44And nothing ended up.
3:12:46And since then, ten years, it's a long time.
3:12:49I cannot think of someone who owes me something.
3:12:56But I have a very good relationship that stems out of certain sentiment with Putin.
3:13:04I can approach him, I can talk to him in a way that few, I believe, dare to or feel free
3:13:11to do and I always find him responsive, very warm, very kind of, you know, from a long distance.
3:13:19But did you have a relationship when you were prime minister or defense minister with someone
3:13:23from Turkish government, someone from the Jordanians?
3:13:30Who you, you know, you used, who was it?
3:13:35Before you used to have a good relationship with Suleiman, right?
3:13:39Egypt, Suleiman, what was it?
3:13:41Yeah, Omar Sleiman.
3:13:43Yeah, with Omar Sleiman I worked for years.
3:13:47Yeah, yeah, he, yeah.
3:13:49But he really owed us.
3:13:52He owed us his courage in a way.
3:13:55And Mubarak owed us a lot in more than one way.
3:14:00So they were, in a sensitive moment you can always look at him in the eye and remind him
3:14:10that you remember our relationship that started now for many, many years and it became based
3:14:17on mutual trust and reasons to attract a hand to each other, critical points and it will immediately
3:14:27bring to his memory.
3:14:31So that's the question.
3:14:32So who else on this case...
3:14:34Who else liked that?
3:14:35Because that's the thing Tom was asking.
3:14:38That's that type of person.
3:14:40Maybe it is Putin.
3:15:14What happened to Suleiman?
3:15:16If I depart, send a message to him, and I left.
3:15:17My man, I want to meet with him, he will accept me.
3:15:18If I will ask a favour that he can influence, he will probably do it.
3:15:19As a kind of sign of trust and distress for him for many reasons, that it cost him that.
3:16:09I don't want to end in the way that Schroeder ended with him.
3:16:15Schroeder did the same.
3:16:19So they nominated him to be the representative of Gazprom,
3:16:24in Germany or in Europe, whatever,
3:16:30and to be responsible for the pipe that he approved before he left.
3:16:38But when you ask a German leading politician about Schroeder,
3:16:46they almost feel uneasy.
3:16:52But I could find something else that I ask him,
3:16:56if it's a favor or the kind of which he can, he might do it.
3:17:03How often did you talk? When was the last time you spoke to him?
3:17:06Or dealt with him? Two years?
3:17:13I don't talk to him often.
3:17:15So what I would do...
3:17:19It's something that from the day one that he came to the Kremlin,
3:17:27as Prime Minister, we replaced a guy named Stepasin.
3:17:31I was already Prime Minister, I visited Yelchin when Stepasin was there,
3:17:39and then visited them when Putin just came in,
3:17:49was still kind of new.
3:17:51And since then we kept good relationship,
3:17:54visiting in Sochi, in St. Petersburg, in Moscow.
3:17:57Visiting socially or business-wise?
3:18:03I told him that I'm going, I don't remember too well.
3:18:10And he asked, come to Moscow.
3:18:12I said, okay, I come to Moscow.
3:18:13He said, oh no, I'm in Sochi.
3:18:15Please come to Sochi.
3:18:17We just sat down with him in his palace.
3:18:21He proposed to play, you know, a billiard or whatever.
3:18:25He kind of hugs me.
3:18:29It reminds a story that I told him.
3:18:32There is some sense of...
3:18:35When I'm telling him the truth about him,
3:18:38and I'm talking to him very frankly.
3:18:43And he frankly kind of...
3:18:45Someone that looks at him at the eye level,
3:18:47talks to him and says,
3:18:48I don't think that you are doing the right thing for you
3:18:51and for this or that.
3:18:53I think you should look at things
3:18:55and he listens very carefully.
3:18:57He respects his way of direct talk.
3:19:00I don't think that there are anyone who
3:19:04really owes me something in the sense that...
3:19:09You know, in a way, Ban Ki-moon
3:19:12doesn't owe me anything,
3:19:14but I believe that a long time
3:19:17he developed a kind of respect for me.
3:19:20I helped him to appear better
3:19:23in many small cases around the way.
3:19:26He told me bluntly that he is ready to help me
3:19:33the moment I see even in his grunt.
3:19:36So the key would be...
3:19:39I would think about, not decided,
3:19:42that at some point you can say,
3:19:44look, I would send a note to Putin,
3:19:47saying I'm going to leave government
3:19:52I'm going to be in Scandinavia
3:19:56or I plan to be in northern Europe.
3:20:00we should have dinner.
3:20:07It has to be very short.
3:20:10In terms of recent military responsibility for you,
3:20:16how would you describe your strength now?
3:20:21Is it strategy, operations, tactics?
3:20:29How do you think about...
3:20:31Let me just write down...
3:20:39You can meet somewhere.
3:20:40Are you going to be in Paris?
3:20:42We should make a plan to meet sometime
3:20:45in the next two months after...
3:20:47I can just tell him I would like to meet with you.
3:20:59He loves to sit with me...
3:21:02Always with someone
3:21:04because he doesn't trust his English.
3:21:06He takes one of his personal kind of things.
3:21:12What was the next point?
3:21:15Well, the question I want to know is...
3:21:17In terms of your military competence.
3:21:21I sat down yesterday for the second time,
3:21:24a week earlier in Tel Aviv,
3:21:26with the lady who runs Robin Martin.
3:21:30And I talked to her about the erections in...
3:21:38what weights them downstream.
3:21:42The risk that the F-35 is the last...
3:21:46fighter with the pilot in it.
3:21:50And that probably many countries will not buy it.
3:21:53And even those who bought it might show...
3:21:56reluctant to see a reduction in performance
3:22:01or the climbing prices.
3:22:04And basically, unlike the situation 20 years ago,
3:22:08the decision makers are not really looking for fighters
3:22:11that can win a war because they don't believe
3:22:13that there will be a war with the Earth.
3:22:16...the life cycle of the Earth.
3:22:19So they are ready to settle for something much simpler,
3:22:24cheaper, but still flies.
3:22:29And I talked to her about the need to balance,
3:22:39She is an intelligent woman that was pushed
3:22:42under the circle into the top world.
3:22:45I think that no one at her leadership
3:22:50talks to her this way
3:22:52without insulting her or something.
3:22:56much more authority,
3:22:57knows what is perfect,
3:22:58knows what happens,
3:22:59follow the industry...
3:23:02...the generation before,
3:23:03and she was just...
3:23:04and she's not very fast,
3:23:06she's almost 60, probably 67, I know.
3:23:10And with such a wide kind of penetrating,
3:23:13thoughtful insights about what is going to happen,
3:23:19what should be the fraction of...
3:23:23...dependence on a contract from the Pentagon,
3:23:26and to what extent,
3:23:27what should be balanced between F-16,
3:23:30F-16 which they are now cost 4500 or so,
3:23:35and the F-22 that ended,
3:23:38and the F-35 that will be...
3:23:41I don't believe that it will become popular,
3:23:44but no one has the money to pay for it,
3:23:52So do you really believe that Canadians really think
3:23:54that they will have to order it flying against the hertz
3:23:58of Tupole if they're crossing over the port?
3:24:02And for some of the Arabs,
3:24:04it will become a kind of token of prestige,
3:24:07to have the best peace,
3:24:10And I told them about the need to find what should be done,
3:24:16and what's going to happen in the...
3:24:19And I thought that, you know,
3:24:21I have the combination.
3:24:26I have the combination of insights into the strategic level of it,
3:24:31but very deep understanding, detailed understandings of everything from technology,
3:24:41to tactics, to the use, and to the...
3:24:47why Boeing failed after investing probably 5 billion in the future combat system for the ground forces,
3:24:55and how such an issue should be approached in order not to repeat mistakes.
3:25:00So, in a way, it can be strategic,
3:25:04with a lot of deep fingers,
3:25:07deep understanding what's feasible,
3:25:10what's not feasible, what's needed,
3:25:12what armed forces of sophisticated countries will need, you know,
3:25:15to fight, not the previous ones,
3:25:17but the future ones as they have.
3:25:22But could you sit on the board of Martin Mariette?
3:25:25I don't know. I didn't check it.
3:25:28If I did it immediately,
3:25:32It's a little bit bizarre.
3:25:34And when the Americans...
3:25:36We all this kind of...
3:25:37When the Americans buy,
3:25:39give Israel 2 billion dollars,
3:25:41with the requirement that 75% of it gets bought,
3:25:45buys American stuff,
3:25:47how does it actually work?
3:25:50We run through the operational system,
3:25:53the priorities there, I approve it,
3:25:55and I signed the order,
3:25:57the signing of the contracts.
3:26:00So I think it would be a little bit strange,
3:26:03but in fact we had some of the general managers,
3:26:06former Air Force Commanders,
3:26:08general manager of the Ministry of Defense,
3:26:15ended up being now a major,
3:26:17kind of a high-level consultant for Boeing.
3:26:22Or the president of Boeing Israel,
3:26:26for whatever it is,
3:26:30I just mentioned it as an example.
3:26:33Probably after a year I can do it,
3:26:35or probably I can do it,
3:26:36if it's clear that I'm not going to deal in any way with Israel.
3:26:41But in terms of your defense...
3:26:44You know, look for example at the drones.
3:26:47I am the person who basically made it fly.