UBS Commodity Outlook Highlights QE Impact and Oil Price Forecasts

Commodities overview Commodities — Key points 2 UBS The impact of new quantitative easing (QE) measures on commodity prices is losing strength, as broadly diversified commodity indices have not been advancing anymore on a month-on-month basis. Investors have started to reflect on the underlying economic challenges that motivated the easing decisions by key central banks. With global economic growth barely accelerating, the asset class will struggle to appreciate firmly over the coming months. We therefore advise investors to have only low single digit return expectations for commodities warranting a neutral stance. Gold is less depending on economic growth, however the metal could be a beneficiary of ample liquidity provided by central banks. But ebbing QE news flow at a later stage (6-12 months) might challenge the necessary investment demand inflows to balance the market. Hence, we stay neutral on precious metals. The return outlook of the energy sector remains not compelling in 4Q12 and we stay neutral. Global crude oil supply should expand firmly and surpass incremental demand in 4Q12. We think this will bring Brent crude oil prices temporarily towards USD 95/bbI while WTI should slide towards USD 78/bbl in 4Q12. However, a weaker USD due to QE3, ongoing social turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and the risk that Iranian tensions have the potential to heat up after the US presidential elections are likely to keep the oil price at around USD 105-110/bbl in 6 months. In addition, demand growth from EM countries in 1Q13 could start to gather pace. Base metal prices should hold their ground, with China's growth deceleration coming to an end. So we keep our neutral stance. That said, it is too early to call for a strong extension of the liquidity driven price rally seen until now, despite the RMB 1 trillion in infrastructure approvals by the NDRC (National Development and Resource Commission) in rail, highways, ports and other infrastructure projects. Many of the announced projects are already part of the 12th 5-year plan. The incremental demand impact of speeding up investments should therefore be rather muted this time compared with previous stimulus packages. Besides that, China's steel intensity for one unit of RMB of investment (FAI) has halved over the last 5 years. A 15% increase in grain prices remains our base case for 4Q12, with room for prices to top out in 1Q13. Demand rationing in case of corn and soybeans is still needed to limit the damage done to global inventories by lower supply. The quarterly stock and the monthly WASDE report by the USDA are reiterating the critical conditions of US grain inventories. The softs, on the other hand, should remain under pressure due to ample South American production and export activity. That said, the sub-sector already weakened quite a bit, which will limit the downside in the short run and we remain neutral. Preferences (6 months) underweight neutral overweight Commodities | total Precious | Metals Energy Base Metals Agricultural Bnew old Source: UBS CIO WM Global Investment Office For further information please contact ClO's asset class specialists Dominic Schnider, [email protected] or Giovanni Staunovo, [email protected] Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025281