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Global Utility White Paper CONFIDENTIAL
o Capitalizing on Structural Change Timing
Although some of the structural changes discussed earlier happen in days or weeks, e.g. fuel cost
passthrough adjustments, others will take years to implement, for example, new capacity payment
structures. Because of the sector’s high earnings visibility, however, we do not have to wait until a
particular structural change occurs for a thesis to play out. Utilities often have earnings visibility 2-3
years out (including Street estimates) which is in contrast to other sectors (e.g. tech) which often
times do not have 2-3 quarters of visibility. As such, utility stock prices (and the Street’s estimates)
will begin to discount even some of the longer dated structural changes as clarity surfaces in the early
stages. Therefore, there is a distinct competitive advantage for those who have an early
understanding of such structural changes and the resulting earnings impact on affected utilities. We
therefore focus our efforts on discerning the structural change opportunity early in an effort to come
up with a view before it becomes obvious to the broader market.
Moreover, there are often several opportunities over an extended time period to trade the same
structural change as numerous stakeholders (e.g. government, regulator, company, customers, et al.)
involved in the process distort market perceptions of the final outcome.
Although structural changes are the “home run” opportunities, Electron returns are not limited to
such changes, as we also consistently play for “singles and doubles” in the global utility sector with
earning releases, regulatory reviews, dividend increases and decreases, relative value, regulatory
arbitrage, etc.
As evidence of Electron’s ability to successfully trade both shorter- and longer-term structural
changes, please note our sweet spot for generating returns over the 7-year track record has tended
to be 45-90 days.
e Portfolio Construction
Typically, the portfolio has 70-100 positions, but concentration is very important to generating returns.
Historically, the top 10 longs represent 40-50% of the Fund’s value, and top 10 shorts represent 30-40% of
the fund’s value. Typically we will have a 10% position in the portfolio; this is invariably a liquid, big-cap
utility name with limited downside and a good degree of upside which is expected to be favorably
affected by a key, underappreciated structural change.
The stronger the conviction (from a risk/reward point of view) in the alpha opportunity, the higher the
gross we run. This flexibility in portfolio construction (which we successfully proved over 3 years during
the first iteration of Electron) provides a distinct advantage given the utility sector’s many low-beta, low-
volatility stocks. During the original Electron Capital period, gross ranged from 150% to 215% and a
median of 185% over the period. We see maintaining a similar operating range for gross for the re-launch
for Electron.
Regarding nets, we will always have a properly hedged product as there are always opportunities on the
short side to generate alpha. Over our 7-year track record period, the net averaged 22% net long. During
the first 3 years of Electron, our net averaged 30% long. Given our bearish view on utilities over the last 4
years, the net averaged 17% net long.
e Risk Model and Risk Management
We view utilities as distinct bundles of risk. Just as we are staunch supporters of sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)
valuation, we are also believers in SOTP risk monitoring. As such, our risk model developed over the last
22 Electron Capital Partners, LLC
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