Trade policy outlook and congressional dynamics for President-elect Trump (2017)

Trade Trade legislative issues could figure prominently in 2017. During the campaign, President-elect Trump argued vigorously against the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and pledged to label China as a currency manipulator, which could trigger the imposition of significant tariffs on Chinese imports. Senate Finance Committee. President-elect Trump may find himself somewhat at odds on his trade agenda with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Hatch who has supported numeroustrade agreements during his congressional tenure. House Ways and Means Committee. House Republican trade leaders —including Speaker Ryan and Ways and Means Chairman Brady —played a pivotal role in advancing President Obama’s trade initiativesthrough Congress, including passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in 2015. A key question is how closely they will work to support President-elect Trump’s trade restrictionist agenda. Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Unless TPP can be approved in the 2016 lame-duck session (an extremely unlikely prospect, as discussed above), TPP will not be ratified. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement. US and EU trade negotiators failed to make much meaningful progress on TTIPin 2016. Prospects for TTIP are dim, given the President-elect’s trade priorities and a potential chillin US-EU relations. Other trade agreements? The Trade Promotion Authority, enacted in 2015, provides enhanced fast-track procedures for trade agreementsreached before July 1, 2018, with a possible extension to July 1, 2021. Will President-elect Trump decide to launch additional trade agreements that could be considered under the fast-track authority in Congress? Following the U.K. vote on Brexit this summer, some Members of Congress expressed an interest in a possible US-U.K. free trade agreement. EY 23 | Election 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022395