Methodology Figure Showing Peaks Around Treaties, Heads of State, and Country Name Changes

Figure SS T T T T T T T 257 __ Treaties (n=124) 2.0 4 1.0 + 1 0.5 + 4 Mean % of overall frequency > 0.0 ~200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Year (relative to treaty signature) > 35F "+g. 8 Heads of state © 3.0}; (n=43) 4 a ao £& 257 | ® 20} | oO > oO 15+ 4 a fe) se 1.0} 4 a & 05+ 4 = 0.0 4 4. 4 4 eI -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Year (relative to accession to power) a as | S 40+ — = Newname (n=28) 4 S 35 | — Old name (n=28) 4 3 E 30 @ 25 S 20 5 2 Pa Oo 1.5 32 o c 1.0 © 05 = 0.0 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 Year (relative to country name change) Fig. SS. Known events exhibit sharp peaks at date of occurrence. We select groups of events that occur at known dates, and produce the corresponding timeseries. We normalize each timeserie relative to its total frequency, center the timeseries around the relevant event, and plot the mean. (A) A list of 124 treaties. (B) A list of 43 head of state (US presidents, UK monarchs), centered around the year when they were elected president or became king/queen. (C) A list of 28 country name changes, centered around the year of name change. Together, these form positive controls about timeseries in the corpus. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_017044