Text extracted via OCR from the original document. May contain errors from the scanning process.
assume $4.7/share in value for the core business based Verizon's pending acquisition
value of $4.83bn less $300mn for potential revisions.
Downside risks to our PO are: 1} Alibaba stock valuation declines, 2) Alibaba valuation
discount is higher than expected, 3) Verizon's pending acquisition of Yahoo core assets
is delayed/challenged, 4} valuation of Yahoo! Japan falls, and 5) valuation of Excalibur
patent portfolio falls.
Yelp (YELP)
Our $43 price objective is based on 14x 2018E EV/EBITDA, slightly above online media
comps, which we believe is warranted given the higher margin potential in the model.
We believe our multiple balances premium growth vs peers with medium-term concerns
on competition and limited GAAP profitability. We believe the slight premium valuation
is sustainable if the company can continue to deliver 25% y/y topline growth with y/y
margin improvement.
Downside risks are Google and Facebook's ambitions to build a review ecosystem to tap
into local ad spending, competition from a variety of online and offline locally focused
advertising businesses, Google traffic dependency, and advertiser churn.
Zillow (ZG / Z)
Our $42 price objective is based on a 6x our 2018E EV/Sales and supported by our DCF
valuation. Our multiple is roughly in-line for online real estate lead generation sites in
other countries operating in developed countries. In addition, this multiple represents a
relative discount given Zillow's higher sales growth and a larger US TAM in comparison
to its peers in smaller developed markets like Australia and Japan. We are positive on
Zillow's long term opportunity to capture the majority of realtor's dollars moving from
offline channels to online marketing channels.
Downside risks are: 1) traffic cannibalization between Zillow properties, 2) new lawsuits
again Zillow, 3) potential for multiple compression, 4) a U.S. housing market down turn,
and 5) lack of profitability support for valuation.
Upside risks are: 1) faster than expected growth and S&M leverage, 2) Zillow Digg
monetization, 3) accelerated grow the in rentals market, and 4) new market expansion.
ZYNGA (ZNGA)
Our $2.70 PO is now based on 11x 2018E EBITDA (which is a premium to the Mobile
gaming peer group due to margin expansion potential), plus $1.41/share in cash and
assets (building).
Downside risks to our price objective are mobile market share losses, challenges in
establishing successful new content given employee departures, and player churn due to
greater competition given low barriers to entry. Upside risks are successful new title
releases that accelerate growth, or potential acquisition of Zynga for its game portfolio.
Analyst Certification
We, Justin Post, Jason Mitchell and Nat Schindler, hereby certify that the views each of
us has expressed in this research report accurately reflect each of our respective
personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of
our respective compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 59
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014945