Ukraine debt profile and reform outlook with IMF, EU, and NATO support

value of USD 19.3 billion). The debt profile has become more favorable with the increase of the share of official debt, a decline in the foreign currency debt share and the very low share of short term debt. This should effectively make easier the refinancing of the debt in 2019 and 2020. The synthesis of the current parliament allows the government to push for reforms in 2017 and early 2018 before they turn to populist measures just before elections. Leading the country off-track with the IMF program will surely limit even further the funding resources of the country. 7,000 US$ million 6,000 - 5,000 4,000 3,000 a — 2,000 - Sm i | | =H litte 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 m= SOE principal and interest payments IMF budget repayments” ™ Sovereign interest payments = Principal - AID bonds m@ Principal - UKRAIN bonds Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; See Ukraine Economics and Strategy: Kyiv Trip Takeaways, April 7, 2017. Politics EU has verified its support by (1) lifting its visa requirements to Ukrainian citizens for traveling, a long awaited move that embeds symbolism of support and (11) following the vote by the Dutch parliament to support Ukraine’s Association Agreement, it is expected that the ratification of the Association Agreement, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area component will be ratified in the Ukraine-EU Summit on July 13. NATO has also shown strong support to Ukraine by providing various forms of assistance through advice and training to strengthen its defence by building stronger security structures. The Ukrainian defence industry may also get permission to participate in tenders for the supply of goods and services for NATO. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026137