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Chart 59: Saudi government refining assets (effective stake in k bpd) Chart 60: Saudi refining breakdown per region (effective stake)
1,006 23%
2,464
56%
914 21%
= Domestic fully owned sm Share in domestic JVs m Domestic fully owned sm Share in domestic JVs
m Share in JVs overseas m Share in JVs overseas
Source: Saudi Aramco, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Source: Saudi Aramco, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Exports are geared towards Asia and Far East
Saudi Arabia exported c.1mbpd of oil products in 2014, mainly to Asia and the Far East
(56%), other Middle Eastern countries (19%) and Western Europe (12%).
Chart 61: Oil product export volumes split per region in 2014 Chart 62: Saudi Arabia oil product slate in 2014
1% _ 1% 20.1
13.0 449
11%
56%
203.4
12% 43.7
mNorth America South America Western Europe mLPG = Naphtha m Gasoline m Jet Fuel
m Middle East m Middle Africa Asia and Far East m Diesel Fuel oil _m Asphalt
Source: Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources. Source: Company data, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Ambitious natural gas expansion
The NTP also focuses on expanding natural gas production. The government aims to
grow the existing production by 48%, largely through non-traditional routes. According
to the minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, natural gas accounts for 50%
of energy production and the target is to increase this to 70% by 2020 through
expanding local production or importing if necessary. The government’s priority will be
to explore the option of local production, although imports were, for the first time, not
excluded. We consider this as an interesting development as importing LNG into Saudi
costs the same as producing it internally through non-traditional routes, in our view. The
Saudi statement acknowledges that Saudi Arabia is willing to be open to the possibility
should imports provide a more economic means for this purpose.
Table 28: National Transformation Plan objectives in the petrochemicals, oil, and refining sectors
Base line Target 2020 Regional benchmark Global benchmark
Oil production capacity (mn bbls/day) 12.5 12.5 3.8 Ai
Dry gas production capacity (bn scf per day) 12 17.8 5.7 16
Refining capacity 29 3.3 ih 1.9
memo:
Initiative cost to the government (total SAR491mn or US$134mn):
Energy SAR216mn
Oil & Gas SAR200mn
Gas network SAR75mn
Source: Saudi National Transformation Plan
72 GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 3S Merrill Lynch
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