Academic discussion of Piagetian stages and uncertain inference in AGI

11.4 Piaget’s Stages in the Context of Uncertain Inference 201 Stage 3:Formal Inference Rules Inference Control Strategy | i Inference Rules } Inference Control Strategy | | Knowledge about New 1 World Knowledge 1 Knowledge about how to control inference New Knowledge about how to control inference Fig. 11.7: Uncertain Inference in the Formal Stage 2. Scientific experimentation and other rigorous observational testing of abstract formaliza- tions. 3. Social and philosophical modeling, and other advanced applications of empathy and the Theory of Mind. In terms of inference control this stage sees not just perception of new knowledge about inference control itself, but inference controlled reasoning about that knowledge and the creation of abstract formalizations about inference control which are reasoned-upon, tested, and verified or debunked. 11.4.3.1 Systematic Experimentation The Piagetan formal phase is a particularly subtle one from the perspective of uncertain in- ference. In a sense, AGI inference engines already have strong capability for formal reasoning built in. Ironically, however, no existing inference engine is capable of deploying its reasoning rules in a powerfully effective way, and this is because of the lack of inference control heuris- tics adequate for controlling abstract formal reasoning. These heuristics are what arise during Piaget’s formal stage, and we propose that in the content of uncertain inference systems, they involve the application of inference itself to the problem of refining inference control. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_013117