Analysis of Gallup satisfaction poll and its alleged predictive power for elections

Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] electorate’s response to this question reflects a consistent indicator over a long period of time: in fact, long enough for us to get a sense of whether this measure is a reliable guide to help forecast election results (see Figure 4). It is: In my paper “Senate Outlook” of October 2, 2014, | relied heavily on this Gallup question to arrive at my outlandish forecast of a seven seat gain for the Republicans in that years Senate races. My forecast of a seven seat pickup was probably the most optimistic forecast at the time for the Republicans. But, as it turned out, | was off by two! The Republicans actually picked up nine seats—West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, lowa, North Carolina and Colorado—and lost none. Figure 4 The Gallup “Are You Satisfied?” Survey (Feb 2-5, 1979 through Feb 3-7, 2016) 100% 100% In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? NOTE: This chart shows "satisfied" 90% ei O° 90% = = = fey S 3 w ow Ft) o 80% ro} ral c 3 3 80% 3 wo 7) Ft) » = = a - = 10% 10% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% DOM NAYMTO OMA DOA AMTWMOONMDDOA NOMTOOR DDO NO TO OO ~ ODDDADAADDAWAADMDAMNMAMNOAODOAOMOO OODODWOOVOAOMOAOAOAOATYTTTT TST DOODAAAAODN9AAIDAIAAADIAAAAAADIODOO900 000 020 00090 0 eee ee ee SPP SP PSP PP SP SP SP TPT TT NANANNNNANAANNNANNANANAS Source: Gallup The predictive power of this Gallup poll’s “are you better off?” question since the election of 1980 is pretty impressive. Both of Reagan elections were right in sync with Gallup’s poll survey at November of 1980 and November of 1984. Likewise, Bush Senior's election in November of 1988 was seen as Reagan’s third term and was foreseen by the Gallup poll question. And then both Clinton elections were right in line with the survey results from the Gallup poll questions in November of 1992 and November of 1996. Bush the younger’s election in 2000 is anomalous, but his reelection in 2004 is consistent with the measure as was McCain’s (really it was Bush’s) defeat in November 2008. The 2012 election also appears contrary to the survey response to the poll question. If this poll reestablishes its predictive power in 2016, Trump wins in a Reagan-like landslide. IV. Primary Colors While perhaps subtle, what happens in contested presidential primaries is also a harbinger of general elections. And if the current Democratic and Republican primaries are accurate measures of voter enthusiasm, the Democrats are facing a tough up-hill fight against Republicans to say the least. Using only states with party primaries, i.e. not state caucuses, and only party primaries up to the time when Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, which was following the May 3'¢ Indiana primary, there has been a large increase in voter turnout for the Republicans in 2016 when compared to either 2008 or 2012. In fact, in the 28 state primaries through May 3”, the total number of Republicans who actually voted in those primaries has increased by 57.2% over 2008 and 67.1% over 2012 (see Table 1 on page 8). And, using unweighted state numbers, the 2016 Republican primary HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025301