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Hour'. (you Americans seek instant gratification — and the converse).
Its theme was that this century is special: it’s the first when one species, ours,
has the planet’s future in its hands. We’re deep in an era that’s called the
anthropocene. We have huge powers for good. We could trigger the transition from
biological to electronic intelligences. But, on the other hand, we could irreversibly
degrade the biosphere, And advanced technology, if misdirected, could cause a
devastating setback to civilization.
We've had one lucky escape already.
At any time in the Cold War era -- when armament levels escalated beyond all
reason --- the superpowers could have stumbled towards armageddon through
muddle and miscalculation. The threat is only in abeyance and still looms over us.
Nuclear weapons are based on 20" century science. I’ll focus later in my talk on 21*
century sciences -- bio, cyber, and AI — which offer huge potential benefits but also
expose us to novel vulnerabilities
Astronomers often have to remind people that they’re not astrologers. Like all
scientists they hava a rotten record as forecasters — almost as bad as economists.
But even with a cloudy crystal ball there are some things we can predict about how
our whole planet will change.
For instance, humanity’s collective footprint is getting heavier,
Fifty years ago, world population was about 3 billion. It now exceeds 7 billion. The
growth’s been mainly in Asia and Africa, as shown in this map where regions are
scaled in proportion to that growth.
The number of births per year, worldwide, peaked a few years ago and is going
down, Nonetheless world population is forecast to rise to around 9 billion by 2050.
That’s partly because most people in the developing world are young. They are yet to
have children, and they will live longer.
The age histogram in the developing world will become more like it is in Europe.
The main growth is in East Asia, and it’s there that the world’s human and financial
resources will become concentrated —ending 4 centuries of North Atlantic hegemony.
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