FantasyFootball2013

YOUR 2013 GUIDE TO FANTASY FOOTBALL by JOE KACIK and ROBERT D. VOROS | THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT DYNAMIC DUO It's been a while since the Redskins have had this much fantasy firepower in their backfield. RB Alfred Morris will likely be drafted during the back half of the first round in most leagues and makes a great RB1 if you're picking there. QB Robert Griffin III has almost fully recovered from last season's devastating knee injury, but could be available in rounds 4-6 or even later in smaller leagues. Robert Griffin III CATEGORY 2012 STATS PASSING YARDS PASS TDs INTERCEPTIONS RUSHING YARDS RUSHING TDs 3,200 20 5 815 7 Alfred Morris 2013 PROJ. CATEGORY 3,000 20 10 600 5 2012 STATS 2013 PROJ. RUSHING YARDS RUSHING TDs RECEPTIONS RECEIVING YARDS RECEIVING TDs 1,613 13 11 77 0 1,700 15 25 150 1 BOUNCE-BACK CANDIDATE POTENTIAL SLEEPERS QUARTERBACKS Sam Bradford RUNNING BACKS Steven Jackson St. Louis' Bradford has more playmakers to throw to - rookie wideouts Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey and free agent tight end Jared Cook - and more protection with the addition of left tackle Jake Long. He also doesn't have a workhorse running back to hand the ball off to since Steven Jackson has moved on to Atlanta, so he may have to throw it more. Atlanta's Jackson is no longer a top-10 back and he's entering his 10th season at the age of 30, but he makes a great fit with the Falcons and could be a good value in the second or third round of drafts. He should be the primary goal-line back on a team that figures to be in the red zone often. He's only missed two games in the past four seasons combined. Others to watch: Michael Vick (Phi.) and Carson Palmer (Arizona) Others to watch: Eddie Lacy (Green Bay) and Shane Vereen (New England) o Larry Fitzgerald, WR (Arizona) 2012: 71 rec., 798 rec. yds, 4 TDs TIGHT ENDS Brandon Myers WIDE RECEIVERS Torrey Smith PLAYERS WITH UPSIDE Myers was a top-10 fantasy tight end on a bad Oakland offense last season. He's now with a more efficient New York Giants offense and should see more red-zone opportunities. He finished in the top six among tight ends in targets (105), catches (79) and receiving yards (806) last season. Baltimore's Smith is clearly Joe Flacco's No. 1 target after wideout Anquan Boldin got traded in the offseason and tight end Dennis Pitta suffered a season-ending hip injury in training camp. Smith was already the team's best deep threat, but now he may be asked to be more of a possession receiver as well. Look for his production to go up. o Doug Martin, RB (Tampa Bay) 2012: 1,926 total yds, 12 total TDs o C.J. Spiller, RB (Buffalo) 2012: 1,703 total yds, 8 total TDs o Trent Richardson, RB (Cleveland) 2012: 1,317 total yds, 12 total TDs o Colin Kaepernick, QB (San Francisco) 2012: 1,814 pass. yds, 10 pass. TDs, 415 rush. yds, 5 rush. TDs Others to watch: Jordan Cameron (Cleveland) and Fred Davis (Washington) Others to watch: T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) and Vincent Brown (San Diego) o Andrew Luck, QB (Indianapolis) 2012: 4,374 pass. yds, 23 pass. TDs, 255 rush. yds, 5 rush. TDs o Julio Jones, WR (Atlanta) 2012: 79 rec., 1,198 rec. yds, 10 TDs o Randall Cobb, WR (Green Bay) 2012: 80 rec., 954 rec. yds, 8 TDs POTENTIAL BUSTS QUARTERBACKS Russell Wilson RUNNING BACKS BenJarvus Green-Ellis The loss of wideout Percy Harvin for most of the season hurts the fantasy value of Seattle's Wilson. He had a nice rookie season last year, but had no 300-yard passing games and nine games with less than 200 yards. No team ran the ball more than the Seahawks last season, and that's not likely to change much with Marshawn Lynch back as the workhorse. The Cincinnati Bengals obviously realize that Green-Ellis is no longer a workhorse back or they wouldn't have drafted Giovani Bernard in the second round. This has all the makings of becoming a committee, especially since Green-Ellis doesn't catch many passes and Bernard caught 47 passes his senior year at North Carolina. Others: Joe Flacco (Baltimore) and Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay) Others: DeMarco Murray (Dallas) and Ryan Mathews (San Diego) WIDE RECEIVERS Mike Wallace o Jared Cook, TE (St. Louis) 2012: 44 rec., 523 rec. yds, 4 TDs TIGHT ENDS Kyle Rudolph Wallace's receiving yards have been on the decline for the past three seasons, and now he goes to a less productive offense in Miami. Wallace is still a big-play threat, but the question will be if second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill (12 TD passes and 13 interceptions last season) can get him the deep ball. Others: Miles Austin (Dallas) and Greg Jennings (Minnesota) Minnesota's Rudolph had a breakout season last year with nine touchdown catches, but his 3.7-yards-per-catch average was 32nd among tight ends. So he's kind of boom or bust. He had three games with no receptions and seven games with two or fewer fantasy points last year. Defenses will likely pay more attention to him in the red zone this season. FA NTA SY B LOG Check out Joe Kacik on his blog throughout the season for fantasy football insight, analysis and the latest news at hamptonroads.com/blogs/ joe-kacik. Also, follow him on Twitter - @jkacik - for up-to-theminute player information. Others: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati) and Martellus Bennett (Chicago) CLIP-AND-SAVE RANKINGS FOR YOUR FANTASY DRAFT PLAYER RANKINGS, BY POSITION TIER 1 PLAYERS - Try to grab at least one from each position; two RBs and WRs would be best. Kickers can wait until the last round of your draft. TIER 2 PLAYERS - Expect about 75 percent of the production of an average Tier 1 player. TIER 3 PLAYERS - Expect about 50 percent of the production of an average Tier 1 player, excluding kickers. Q UARTE R BACKS RANK/PLAYER RUN N IN G BACKS TEAM BYE TIER 1 QBs RANK/PLAYER W I D E R EC E I VE RS TEAM BYE TIER 1 RBs 1. Drew Brees 2. Aaron Rodgers 3. Peyton Manning 4. Cam Newton 5. Matt Ryan 6. Tom Brady NO GB DEN CAR ATL NE 7 4 9 4 6 10 TIER 2 QBs 7. Colin Kaepernick 8. Andrew Luck 9. Robert Griffin III 10. Matthew Stafford 11. Tony Romo 12. Russell Wilson 13. Michael Vick 14. Andy Dalton 15. Eli Manning SF IND WSH DET DAL SEA PHI CIN NYG 9 8 5 9 11 12 12 12 9 16. Sam Bradford STL 17. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 18. Carson Palmer ARZ 19. Matt Schaub HOU 20. Josh Freeman TB 21. Alex Smith KC 22. Ryan Tannehill MIA 23. Brandon Weeden CLE 24. Joe Flacco BAL 25. Jay Cutler CHI 26. Philip Rivers SD 27. EJ Manuel (R) BUF 28. Matt Flynn OAK 29. Geno Smith (R) NYJ 30. Jake Locker TEN 31. Christian Ponder MIN 32. Blaine Gabbert JAX 11 5 9 8 5 10 6 10 8 8 8 12 7 10 8 5 9 TIER 3 QBs M I CHAEL VICK Two questions the former Virginia Tech star needs to address: 1.) How will he adapt to new head coach Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense? And ... 2.) Can he stay healthy for all 16 games? We think that Vick is wellsuited for Kelly's fast-paced offense, but he will likely miss at least two games with injuries. CATEGORY 2012 STATS 2013 PROJ. PASS YARDS PASS TDs INTs RUSH YARDS RUSH TDs 2,362 12 10 332 1 2,750 15 10 500 5 1. Adrian Peterson 2. Doug Martin 3. Ray Rice 4. C.J. Spiller 5. Trent Richardson 6. LeSean McCoy 7. Jamaal Charles 8. Arian Foster 9. Alfred Morris 10. Marshawn Lynch 11. Matt Forte TEAM BYE TIER 1 WRs MIN TB BAL BUF CLE PHI KC HOU WSH SEA CHI 5 5 8 12 10 12 10 8 5 12 8 ATL NE TEN DET JAX SF NO DAL OAK MIA GB NYG CAR NYJ SD IND STL 6 10 8 9 9 9 7 11 7 6 4 9 4 10 8 8 11 29. Pierre Thomas NO 30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 31. Montee Ball (R) DEN 32. Rashard Mendenhall ARZ 33. Shane Vereen NE 34. Mark Ingram NO 35. Andre Brown NYG 36. Ronnie Hillman DEN 37. Daniel Thomas MIA 38. Jonathan Stewart CAR 39. Giovani Bernard (R) CIN 40. Jonathan Dwyer PIT 41. Michael Bush CHI 42. Isaiah Pead STL 43. Bryce Brown PHI 44. Ben Tate HOU 45. Vick Ballard IND 46. Danny Woodhead SD 47. Le'Veon Bell (R) PIT 48. Fred Jackson BUF 49. Bernard Pierce BAL 50. Christine Michael SEA 7 12 9 9 10 7 9 9 6 4 12 5 8 11 12 8 8 8 5 12 8 12 TIER 2 RBs 12. Steven Jackson 13. Stevan Ridley 14. Chris Johnson 15. Reggie Bush 16. Maurice Jones-Drew 17. Frank Gore 18. Darren Sproles 19. DeMarco Murray 20. Darren McFadden 21. Lamar Miller 22. Eddie Lacy (R) 23. David Wilson 24. DeAngelo Williams 25. Chris Ivory 26. Ryan Mathews 27. Ahmad Bradshaw 28. Daryl Richardson RANK/PLAYER TIGHT ENDS TIER 3 RBs 1. Calvin Johnson 2. A.J. Green 3. Dez Bryant 4. Brandon Marshall 5. Julio Jones 6. Demaryius Thomas 7. Larry Fitzgerald 8. Roddy White 9. Vincent Jackson 10. Randall Cobb 11. Andre Johnson 12. Victor Cruz RANK/PLAYER KIC KERS TEAM BYE TIER 1 TEs DET CIN DAL CHI ATL DEN ARZ ATL TB GB HOU NYG 9 12 11 8 6 9 9 6 5 4 8 9 IND NO MIA BAL PHI KC WSH GB CAR NE GB DEN IND PIT DEN BUF JAX SF TB NYG MIN 8 7 6 8 12 10 5 4 4 10 4 9 8 5 9 12 9 9 5 9 5 34. Chris Givens STL 35. Josh Gordon CLE 36. Michael Floyd ARZ 37. Emmanuel Sanders PIT 38. Vincent Brown SD 39. Miles Austin DAL 40. Tavon Austin (R) STL 41. Reuben Randle NYG 42. Alshon Jeffery CHI 43. DeAndre Hopkins (R) HOU 44. Kenny Britt TEN 45. Andre Roberts ARZ 46. Golden Tate SEA 47. Kendall Wright TEN 48. Mohamed Sanu CIN 49. Lance Moore NO 50. Kenbrell Thompkins (R) NE TEAM BYE TIER 1 Ks 1. Jimmy Graham 2. Tony Gonzalez 3. Jason Witten 4. Vernon Davis 11 10 9 5 8 11 11 9 8 8 8 9 12 8 12 7 10 TIER 2 WRs 13. Reggie Wayne 14. Marques Colston 15. Mike Wallace 16. Torrey Smith 17. DeSean Jackson 18. Dwayne Bowe 19. Pierre Garcon 20. Jordy Nelson 21. Steve Smith 22. Danny Amendola 23. James Jones 24. Wes Welker 25. T.Y. Hilton 26. Antonio Brown 27. Eric Decker 28. Steve Johnson 29. Cecil Shorts 30. Anquan Boldin 31. Mike Williams 32. Hakeem Nicks 33. Greg Jennings RANK/PLAYER DEFENSES NO ATL DAL SF 7 6 12 9 NE SD HOU NYG WAS CLE STL MIN 10 8 8 9 5 10 11 5 CAR GB CHI DET IND CIN PHI SEA ARZ CIN IND PHI NYJ BAL JAX PIT DEN TEN KC NE 4 4 8 9 8 12 12 12 9 12 8 12 10 8 9 5 9 8 10 10 TIER 2 TEs 5. Rob Gronkowski 6. Antonio Gates 7. Owen Daniels 8. Brandon Myers 9. Fred Davis 10. Jordan Cameron 11. Jared Cook 12. Kyle Rudolph TIER 3 TEs 13. Greg Olsen 14. Jermichael Finley 15. Martellus Bennett 16. Brandon Pettigrew 17. Coby Fleener 18. Tyler Eifert (R) 19. Brent Celek 20. Zach Miller 21. Rob Housler 22. Jermaine Gresham 23. Dwayne Allen 24. Zach Ertz (R) 25. Kellen Winslow 26. Ed Dickson 27. Marcedes Lewis 28. Heath Miller 29. Julius Thomas 30. Delanie Walker 31. Travis Kelce (R) 32. Zach Sudfeld (R) 5 9 8 6 10 9 TIER 2 Ks DAL STL OAK NO HOU TB NYG DET SEA CHI KC PHI WSH 11 11 7 7 8 5 9 9 12 8 10 12 5 SD TEN GB CIN IND ARZ PIT JAX MIA CAR BUF NYJ CLE 8 8 4 12 8 9 5 9 6 4 12 10 10 TIER 3 Ks 20. Nick Novak 21. Rob Bironas 22. Mason Crosby 23. Mike Nugent 24. Adam Vinatieri 25. Dan Carpenter 26. Shaun Suisham 27. Josh Scobee 28. Caleb Sturgis (R) 29. Graham Gano 30. Dustin Hopkins (R) 31. Nick Folk 32. Shayne Graham BYE TIER 1 DEFs 1. Blair Walsh MIN 2. Phil Dawson SF 3. Justin Tucker BAL 4. Matt Bryant ATL 5. Stephen Gostkowski NE 6. Matt Prater DEN 7. Dan Bailey 8. Greg Zuerlein 9. Sebastian Janikowski 10. Garrett Hartley 11. Randy Bullock 12. Lawrence Tynes 13. Josh Brown 14. David Akers 15. Steven Hauschka 16. Robbie Gould 17. Ryan Succop 18. Alex Henery 19. Kai Forbath RANK/TEAM 1. Seattle Seahawks 2. San Francisco 49ers 3. Chicago Bears 4. Houston Texans TIER 2 DEFs 5. Cincinnati Bengals 6. New England Patriots 7. Denver Broncos 8. St. Louis Rams 9. Baltimore Ravens 10. Arizona Cardinals 11. Green Bay Packers 12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13. Minnesota Vikings 14. Pittsburgh Steelers 15. Cleveland Browns 16. New York Giants The Seahawks hope Virginia Beach's Percy Harvin will be on the field contributing at some point in the second half of the season. If your team is weak at WR and your league has an injury spot, you might want to stash Harvin there for later. ROOKIES TO WATCH QUARTERBACKS Bayside High grad EJ Manuel (Buffalo) appears to be the only rookie that will see significant playing time this season, although Geno Smith could end up starting games for the Jets. Manuel hurt his knee in the preseason, so he might only have value in two-QB leagues. RUNNING BACKS This year's crop of rookie RBs includes a handful of solid contributors, but odds are none will duplicate what Tampa Bay's Doug Martin and Washington's Alfred Morris did last season. The Packers' Eddie Lacy appears to have the best chance to start early, but the Broncos' Montee Ball, the Bengals' Giovani Bernard and the Steelers' Le'Veon Bell could eventually earn starting roles. Bills' EJ Manuel 12 10 9 11 8 9 4 5 5 5 10 9 TIER 3 DEFs 17. Washington Redskins 18. Dallas Cowboys 19. Indianapolis Colts 20. Carolina Panthers 21. Miami Dolphins 22. San Diego Chargers 23. Kansas City Chiefs 24. Philadelphia Eagles 25. New York Jets 26. Tennessee Titans 27. Detroit Lions 28. Buffalo Bills 29. Atlanta Falcons 30. New Orleans Saints 31. Jacksonville Jaguars 32. Oakland Raiders TIER 3 WRs IN J U RED I N S EATTL E 12 9 8 8 WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS The strength of this year's rookie receiving corps could be in the TEs. Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert, Philadelphia's Zach Ertz, Kansas City's Travis Kelce and New England's Zach Sudfeld should all play roles in good offenses. Sudfeld could be a steal if injured Rob Gronkowski is out for a while. WRs Tavon Austin (St. Louis), DeAndre Hopkins (Houston) and Kenbrell Thompkins (New England) are draftable as WR3s. SOURCES: AP, ESPN, Getty Images, pro-football-reference.com, nfl.com, Yahoo! 5 11 8 4 6 8 10 12 10 8 9 12 6 7 9 7