Case File
efta-01358059DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01358059
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DOJ Data Set 10
Reference
efta-01358059
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0
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"We believe the probability of o 5%+ dip is high this summer and our tactical call remains Down given the S&P now at an
even higher PE than a year ago, heightened uncertainty in 10yr yields, weak earnings growth and continued soft
economic data. We haven't had a 5%+ dip this year. Historically 595+ dips ore common and happen at least once a year
since 1960, except 1964, 1993 & 1995. It has been 916 trading days (3.6 years) since a 10% correction. Selloff triggers
could be o further rise in 10yr yields especially if UE keeps falling amidst slow economic growth and Fed remains unclear
on first hike timing, or a jump in the dollar upon the Fed expressing firm intentions to hike in Sept."
With that said, we looked at OTC equity put spreads contingent on higher rates. We priced in-the-money versions
which would obtain its maximum payout (over 5x premium) with a 5% sell-off in SPX and higher l0y US swap rates (CMS,
25bps over its forward level).
Indicative transaction terms (as of 06/03/2015):
Client buys:
OTC SPX 105%/95% Put Spread contingent on l0y USD CMS > atmf+25bps at expiry
Notional:
USD50mm
Expiry:
18 Dec 2015
Offer (mid):
2.00% (1.60%)
Ref vanilla:
4.30%
Ref SPX future:
2115
Ref l0y fwd:
2.54%
SPX Implied volatility levels close to historical lows
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58 793879 4919-4343-2 02-Jun-15 10 11 2‘ EDT CM-4 00
Please let us know if you would like to discuss. Best regards,
Daniel
Daniel Sabba
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
DB-SDNY-0045390
SDNY_GM_00 191574
EFTA01358059
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Phone
1777 8600Phone
793879 4919Phone
812 2977Wire Ref
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