EFTA01365011

3 December 2013 US Derivatives Spotlight The figures below show the simulated P/Ls for 36M and 18M ATM options under different volatility and spot change scenarios after one-year has passed. The price sensitivity to spot moves does tend to dominate any volatility P/L. Also, you can see for the 36M trade that if fixed strike vols and spot are unchanged then your option loses a fifth of its value due to time decay (the 18M option loses almost half its value in the same situation). A 5% up move in spot and a 100 bps decline in vol leaves the 36M ATM call option holder elatively flat. Figure 25: Simulated PIL of 36M ATM options after 12M have pasrxd under different volatility and spot change scenarios (all else held the same) !Figure 26: Simulated PI of 18M ATM options after I2M 'have passed under different volatility and spot change iscenarios (all else held the same} %Clangs1n Spot %Champs1n Spot -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 400 -81% -67% -48% -22% 8% 4.00 -99% -91% 493% -23% 39% 4.50 -79% -65% 45% -20% II% -4.50 -98% -90% 46% -21% 40% 4.00 -77% -63% 42% -17% 13% 4.00 -96% -98% -61% -20% 41% -3.50 -76% -60% 40% -Id% 16% -350 -97% -87% -62% -18% 42% -3.00 -74% 49% -37% .11% 19% -3.00 -96% 45% 40% -16% 43% -2.50 -72% -55% -34% -9% 21% -2.50 -96% -84% -58% -14% 44% -2.00 -70% -63% -32% -6% 24% -2.00 -95% 42% -66% -12% 45% -1.50 S -1.00 -68% -65% -62% 48% -29% -27% .3% -1% 27% 29% T: -1.50 -1.00 -94% -81% -79% 41% .61% -10% -8% 47% 49% 450 -63% 46% .24% 2% 32% -0.50 92% -78% 49% .6% 19% 5 $ 0.00 41% 43% -21% 5% 35% a 0.00 -91% -76% 47% 4% 51% 1 0.50 1.00 -69% -57% 42% -38% 49% 44% 8% 10% 38% 10% A 0.50 1.00 -90% -89% -74% -72% 45% 43% .3% -1% 52% 54% 1.50 -55% -36% -13% 13% 43% 1.50 -88% -71% 41% I% 56% 2.00 43% -31% -11% 16% 46% 2.00 437% -69% -39% 3% 57% 2.50 -50% 41% 4% 19% 48% 2.50 -86% 47% -37% 5% 60% 3.00 -48% -29% -5% 21% 51% 3.00 -81% -66% -35% 7% 60% 3.50 46% -26% -3% 24% 54% 3.50 -83% -64% -33% 9% 62% 4.00 .41% -24% 0% 27% 57% 4.00 .82% -62% -31% 11% 64% 4.50 -41% -21% 3% 29% 59% 4.50 -81% -80% -29% 13% 66% 5.00 .39% -19% 5% 32% 62% 5.00 -79% -69% -27% 15% 67% sand oftaorooson sada Owen an Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 13 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0055597 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00201781 EFTA01365011