Case File
efta-01365907DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01365907
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01365907
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AAPL's daily stock return
has exhibited statistically
significant correlation to
the day of the week since
2011
Monday's outperformance
is greater and more
statistically significant
than Fridays
underperformance
Deutsche Bank
Apple stock price performance
Average stock price performance by day of week
0.7% a
2008 to 2010
0.5% 1
0.3% 1 0.25%
0.1%
0.06°
(0.1%)
(0.3%)
0.7%
0.5% -
0.3%
0.1%
(0.1%)
(0.3%)
(0.00%)
Monday
0.58%
0.16%
0.11%
Tuesday
(0.04%)
0.20%
• Apple
• S&P 500
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
2011 to Present
0 30%
(0.05%)
• Apple
• S&P 500
0.07%
(0 02%)
(0 01%)(0 13%)
(0.16%)
0.10%
I
-
,
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
I
Statistical significance over time
— To test for statistical significance, we ran yearly
regressions of AAPL's daily stock returns versus whether
the day was a Friday or Monday
— We calculated the p-value for the day variable
— The p-value is a measure of the probability that the
return is not correlated with the variable
— For example, a p-value of 0.01 means there's only a 1%
chance that the return is not correlated with the variable
— A lower p-value means more statistical significance
— Monday's p-values declined since 2008 and the variable
showed very strong statistical significance since 2011
— Friday's p-values also declined, but to a lesser extent and
have increased again in 2013 and 2014
0.80
0.70
0.60
1 0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
re
re
er
00,
siNt
—0—Friday
Monday
rL
n
Weekly O1OO37$
4APL
(June 20 gh
a
("J
0
O
co
• ct
0 8
0
0
2
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00203470
DB-SDNY-0057286
EFTA01365907
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