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31 May 2015
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Brazil
Through 2017, no country has a greater ability to impact the outlook on Non-
OPEC production growth than Brazil, which after years of delays, has begun
generating meaningful growth from the Pre-Salt. Although we have haircut our
outlook significantly, given the upheaval caused by the combination of lower
oil price and political/corporate scandal, Brazil still represents nearly 400 Mb/d
of production growth by 2017 (vs. 2014). See outlook and risks below.
I
Figute 72: Brazil Production Outlook, 2014-2020e (Mb/d)
*Base
• Growth Bus
Sate. DaaeM. llera ned ;Ann
OM
!Figure 7T Production by type (area chart o€ onshore vs.
!shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/d)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
sOnshore
s Shallow
• Deepwater
c Ultra-deepwater
Sager O ate Bo* Voted Met/Rona*. ISA
of
!Figure 75: 2017 Production Swing (Beer vs. Bull)
Figure 74: Crude volume growth outlook by project
status (Mb/d)
4000
4000 -I
woo
moo I
MOO
2000
200
1000
SOO
0
2014
2015
2015
2017
2018
2010
ale,*
OWNS, Anal
INNOOpinefil
mom Pretetho 0444kOmml
44
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I-300 Mb/d
2900 I
roe
2500
1900
1700
1500
220
ear
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Page 42
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0058893
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00205077
EFTA01367360
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