EFTA01367365

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Caspian Sea, ex Russia Production from the Caspian Sea is largely concentrated around a few mega projects in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan (with smaller contributions from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). The recent reduction (25%) in the Kazakhstan oil export duty this past March was not much of a surprise as the government had announced its intention to reduce rates in response to the lower oil price environment earlier this year. With the drop in export duty rates, the government aims to sustain longer-term production by bridging the near-term incremental production (weighted toward recovery projects) with the restart of Kashagan Phase One and ultimately growth from the currently unsanctioned Tengiz and Kashagan Phase Two projects. In Azerbaijan, the focus will be on maintaining production at the ACG contract area (-75% of 2014 country production) through the recently on-stream through the Chirag Oil Project and a renewal of the underlying PSC that is set to expire in 2024. Figure 33: Caspian Production Outlook, 2014-2020e 3500 •I 3003 2500 2000 1500 1000 • 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 •Base •Growth Bbls 2020 Figure 84: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs, deepwater (hiltykl) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2014 sOnshore (Com) 2015 2016 2017 2018 20t9 "Shallow water (Com) 2020 Source Dens* 0n, Weed44$04ena Sector, Dens Brit 1500:144stArin Z4 Figure 85: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mb/d) Figure 86: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -120 Mb/CI so) 2600 ar WO 2700 26el 2011 I=1 25C0 2500 2000 MOO 1500 62500. 1000 10 1900 500 0 1700 2014 2015 2016 2017 201$ 2016 2020 MIII. Bine ,.. Goan 61 Ombra" Ands aim Under Deseccenonl ....Rade Develcmort 150D Bar a11. "... 1243 BS OM .Brno win tenth woo" ;rotas •1%e4 n exlme tees San* Dante es* MixellacIanz4. /C4 Sala, Deal. Dent Moo Abastr. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 4/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058898 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205082 EFTA01367365