Case File
efta-01373771DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01373771
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01373771
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US Municipals Are an Appealing and Unique Asset Class
Historical Outperformance in Rising Rate Environment
Taxable vs. Tax-exempt Yields
Higher Rates Cause Spread Widening111
Historically, as rates increase, the value of the tax-exemption to
investors increases, bringing more buyers into the tax-exempt
market
This increased demand for tax-exempt bonds as rates rise tends to
drive spreads between taxable and tax-exempt rates higher as rates
increase
This means that municipal bonds often outperform other taxable
fixed income investments in a sell-off
• Regression on positive monthly change in 30y UST rates since
1995 shows that 30yr MMD historically tends to move at about
67.5% of 30yr UST yield movements
Positive MoM Change in 30y UST vs. MMDP)
MoM change in 30y MMD
0.8%
0.6%
0.4% •
0.2% O
0.0%
0.
-0.2%
-0.4% •
Regression: AMMD = 67.5% • AUST
et
O
O
1:1 movement
O
O
Historical
O
Regression
OO
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
O
MoM change in 30y UST
I
30y UST — MMD Spread
0.5%
0.0% /3
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
etle. de.
o
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
50%
6.0%
70%
8.0%
30y UST Yields
Historical Statistics using UST Sell-off Months(2)
Months of UST Sell-off Used
108
Total Months
260
30v UST
Average
0.184%
Standard Deviation
0.124%
95% Highest
0.373%
5% Lowest
0.017%
30v MMD
Average
0.109%
Standard Deviation
0.144%
95% Highest
0.390%
5% Lowest
-0.047%
Deutsche Bank (1) MMD data from TM3, UST data from Bloomberg,. chart uses data front 1/3/1995 to 8/30/2016: past performance, simulated or actual, is not a reliable incicator of
7
Muse results
(2) Date uses only positive month to month movements in 30y UST yields calculated on the first business day of each month from 1/3/1995 to 8/30/2016: does not
include crisis data from 6/1/2008 to 6r1/2009
Confidential
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0068127
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00214311
EFTA01373771
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