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efta-01377066DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01377066
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efta-01377066
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CIO Insights — August 2016
Alternatives
14
REITs
$9bbn
Investors estimated to be
underweight in the REIT sector
Real Estate
11th
Global Industry Classification Standard
sector from end August 2016
As regards real estate, this may
perform best when gross-domestic-
product (GDP) growth is positive
and real interest rates are low. Our
post-Brexit referendum GDP growth
estimates are modestly lower for
some markets, yet we do not expect
real interest rates to rise. Globally,
real estate could deliver average
to above-average returns in many
markets. The U.K. might slow, but
markets such as Australia, South
Korea, Germany, Spain and the U.S.
remain favorable.
Outside of the U.K., we also don't
see material valuation shifts. Initial
yields (rents minus costs, divided by
the property value) are stable while
bond yields have come down, thus
spreads are wider. With property
supply and demand remaining
balanced, we have upgraded our
return outlook in certain markets.
Post Brexit decision
UK real estate valuations might
ease. but most key markets remain
favorable
Supply risk remains well below
average, with only a few exceptions
such as Singapore, Houston,
London, and some late-cycle supply
in certain Australian markets.
In the listed market, real estate may
become the eleventh Standard &
Poor's Global Industry Classification
Standard sector in September
2016. We believe this could lead to
lower volatility and correlations over
time. Also, generalist investors are
estimated to be underweight the
Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)
sector by c. S95bn, which could
provide support. REIT dividend yields
are now at 4.0 percent and well
supported by underlying free-cash-
flow yields of 5.0 percent. Payout
ratios are low by historical standards
and provide an opportunity for high-
single-digit dividend growth in the
near term.
Source. Deutsche Asset Management June 24, 2016
Past ;xofotITUIIIM is not indicative of future returns. Readers should refer to the explanatory notes at the end of this document.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
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EFTA01377066
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