EFTA01377495

Mono polorons foe The ant; °room ',metonym vane: iiohts nasatel:e.s premetixra Ponta, ficooymmeicemn ,does Credit and asset prices from the start of 2011 to:the:end of 2014 Focus on the financial cycle Li MI Chill Fl MO3 omr"..ri, Development of public debt l'en9 1:01 1073 19tH '591 1 We 200] :00:r 20305 2004 :CO :NH 2010 205. • .19(411 • Germany ■ oinked SVINI • UM110.1 Kong*" Source! flank fav 'motto°, Satitne 85th 'Snots Rmaate Arno 2015 • Etemaue of to gm* for Imarnatfaroo 5uttoommoat9 wart taus for 701 5. Decreasing financial leeway Advanced countries used to stabilize their economies in times of recessions with the help of fiscal spending programs. As a result, public debt ratios have structurally risen over the past 25 years. Growing debt might narrow these governments' scope of action in future times of crisis. !!!"11 MIS enme yir.ocon Stme M1 n.1 Kinn:cur A financial cycle is in an upswing when credit volumes and asset prices are rising. This development can be well observed in China, Brazil and the United States. In these countries, the danger of a credit boom and a credit crisis following suit is increasing. For this reason, central banks must pursue a prudent monetary policy in these countries. et Peet meat growth' • Peal Imriu neon. ' Coyne' 04a Ice tow:tam:no Sonlernonta. 25th Animal Re cote Juno 2015 • kcal c—cH women:es corieuburd acIpue&a, lye the groseesamonacortrocioxt FaCe)(1fillat0r • oRNIIMO30 pnr.o were caleutwon adionne) fy4 Vie C arcl4Paiir Imo INI.t‘ Germany (10-year Bunds) When the neld on 10-year Sundt was approach ing tent on April, mete, %VIM, were railed yenning that ma was an EC& onclumel bombe, * 1 . 1 0 O / 0 (June 2016 F) •DeututO AWN to P?.:afA AS WS:VIC/IV FirThe current accommodative monetary policy is not without risks. This facilitates the creation of bubbles on the financial markets.il Kim Knot, marmot:4M !Ca GomteniagCnront carracennt on Inein 4. Bnomtet5 Roane 1. P h , Eurozone (refinancing rate) Tr* Ea) wants to boon rh. Eurozone economy yid, kn. me:ten:an° 3t4S. The CCAl i Otalt Signt. PISCO touhto"rte. * 0.05 / t.J (June 2016 F) 4Coutroche NOMA fmocart as of niter15 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be reached. F = forecast. Forecasts am based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL C'0 'es I Anicrocat Enke.° iregnaa 20'5 tre,Zr44,4, 0 5 DB-SDNY-0074376 SDNY_GM_00220560 EFTA01377495