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22 December 2017
EM Currency Handbook 2018: Still Fuel in the Tank
Kazakhstan
The tenge is the monetary unit of Kazakhstan,
introduced in November 1993 to replace the ruble at a
rate of 1 tenge = 500 rubles. A floating exchange rate
regime was introduced in April 1999. However, the
tenge remained a managed float and there was limited
flexibility against the dollar or ruble in recent years. In
August 2015, the tenge shifted to a free float. Due to
this change, the tenge lost 30% of its value in a single
day. However, the transition to a free float is not yet
complete and in practice the currency remains heavily
managed.
The NBK is accountable to the Kazakh President, but
within the limits of authority granted by the legislation,
is independent in its activity. Its primary objective is to
ensure price stability, i.e. keeping inflation within the
Bank's defined range of 6-8%. In 2015, the NBK
announced plans to increase the efficiency of the
interest rate channel of the transmission mechanism by
expanding the system of tools for regulating liquidity
and also introducing a new "base" interest rate. The
interest rates of monetary policy tools will be linked to
the base rate. Standing facility interest rates will form
the upper and lower limits of the money market rate
fluctuations. In the event of tightening or easing of
monetary policy, the base rate may accordingly be
raised or lowered, which will entail a change in the rest
of the interest rates.
Despite the planned transition to free float and liquidity
management via the rates corridor, neither of these
have been completed yet. In the transitional phase, the
National Bank will adhere to an exchange rate corridor
regime and will allow for a more flexible exchange rate,
to the extent that it will not be contrary to achieving the
inflation targets. In the event of foreign exchange
shocks, ensuring stability in the financial market will
become the priority .
USD/KZT exchange rate
1500
4000
3500
3000
2500
200 0
1500
1000
500
0.0
2004 2003 2006 2007 2001 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US0NZT
tow bubo.* Sint Sibemberp are* IP
USD/KZT and 3M KZT implied yield
120
100
90
60
40
so
d 19 d
.2
d
19
d d
Arts a* at 1
4'
1
06
41
113,3/41T Ire 4,76441y649.ths
—930X2T Art
Sall*bb-NM. Sant
MOO
5409
1300
1200
3100
3000
2900
Page 66
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0076869
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00223053
EFTA01379407
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