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efta-01385427DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01385427
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3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector.Media. Cable & Satellite
a compelling one for consumers, especially given increased competition for
audience's attention and today's average ticket prices north of $8.40.
After an active slate of M&A in 2016 compliments of AMC (it acquired the #4
US exhibitor Carmike Cinemas. UK-based Odeon & UCI Cinemas, and
Stockholm-based Nordic Cinema Group), 2017 was a bit quiet until just
recently. On December 5th, UK-based Cineworld announced plans to acquire
Regal for -$3.6bn cash. We calculate that this represents a healthy -9x seller
multiple of 2018 EBITDA (-7.3x post-synergies). Looking to 2018, with Regal
off the market and AMC digesting its 3 acquisitions, it may be up to Cinemark
to drive further material consolidation.
Noise around the theatrical window quieted down for a while, but heated up at
times during 2017. Some studios are reportedly pushing for a premium video-
on-demand offering that could shrink the theatrical window in some cases to
just 2 weeks (versus today's typical 90-day window). The offerings would be
priced at a significant premium relative to current on-demand options Based
on recent commentary, it doesn't appear that any consensus has been reached
amongst the studios, let alone between the studios and the theater groups, on
the amount of time after theatrical release, pricing, and revenue
shares/incentives, among others. We ultimately see any move to tighten
windows being a mutually agreed upon decision between theater owners and
studios, but it may take some time to get there.
So with 2017 almost in the books, we look ahead with an optimistic eye to what
2018 has in store. In our view, all roads for the sector lead back to the release
slate. We have earmarked select upcoming movies in the following chart.
Highlights of tlx: Upcoming Movie Release Slate
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We think the 2018 slate looks loaded and has the potential to push the
industry to a record-setting year. First quarter has a high bar to overcome
versus a strong 1Q17, but after that the comps get easier.
Generally speaking, the theater exhibitors' securities are trading at levels that
reflect the overall stability of the past few years, as well as, generally modest
leverage, reasonable liquidity, and a healthy film slate. AMC bonds specifically
hit some choppy waters as their acquisition spree pushed leverage higher just
a soft box office stretch rolled through, but we think management now has a
better handle on the business. The rising tide of the aforementioned robust
film slate for 2018 should lift all ships regardless of ups & downs in the
economy (the sector has historically been recession-resistant); all in, we're
overweight the theater exhibitors to kick off 2017.
Page 152
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00232895
DB-SDNY-0086711
EFTA01385427
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